MBB: Duke v Virginia Tech (Fri, 12/6, 7:00 pm, ACCN) Pre-Game and In-Game Thread

[DavidBenAkiva]

The Blue Devils open up ACC play in early December as they take on Virginia Tech and the Hokies in Blacksburg. After dropping Michigan State in the opening matchup in Maui, Virginia Tech dropped the next pair to Dayton and BYU by 13 points each. The hot-shooting Hokies played abysmal defense in those last two games and will look to rebound against the Blue Devils as well as to extract a bit of revenge for the Sweet 16 loss last season.

This will be the second ACC game for Virginia Tech as they began the season by beating Clemson on the road, 67-60. They then went on to win their next 5 games to start the Mike Young error on a promising note. Speaking of Young, this Hokies team features 6 freshman among its 9 regular rotation players. The holdovers include starting PG JR Wabissa Bede, starting F JR PJ Horne, and SO reserve G Isaiah Wilkins. Besides the inexperience, the Hokies are short, shorter, and shortest. Forwards Landers Nolley (6'7", 230 lbs) and PJ Horne (6'5'", 230 lbs) are about the only size the Hokies have. Both could be accurately described as small forwards playing up in the 5-out offense used by Mike Young. Reserve F FR Jon Ojiako (6'10, 240 lbs) is the only other big they have.

The offensive attack for Virginia Tech is predicated on shooting. They take 3's often and make a bunch. Nearly half of their FG attempts on the season are from 3 and they are 3rd in the nation in 3P% at 43.1%. Not surprisingly, they do not get blocked very often or take many free throws. Watch out for Nolley. He leads the team in scoring at 20 per game and rebounds at 5 per game. Nolley had to sit out last season for "NCAA Reasons" and has begun his NCAA career with a bang. He's a talented player and is draining better than half his 3-point attempts so far. PJ Horne is going to be a tough matchup as he can stretch the defense as well as Nolley. On the defensive end, the question will be how either Nolley or Horne guard Vernon Carey, Jr. That cuts both ways as the Virginia Tech team is going to force Carey to guard in space a lot. We'll see how that plays out.

About the only Hokie who can't shoot it is JR PG Wabissa Bede. The tenacious lead guard is just not a good shooter, hitting below 20% from deep on the season. He was better from 3 last season but is a career 56.0% FT shooter. He does run the offense with aplomb, though. Mike Young employs a lot of misdirection on offense where Bede or the other guards will attack the basket from the elbow along the baseline after rejecting a screen. This opens up a one-on-one lane to the hoop or a dump off to a teammate cutting to the rim from the weakside or even a kickout to a shooter off a pindown screen. With as many as 4 or 5 plus shooters on the court, someone is bound to get open for a look.

The pace of Virginia Tech is deliberate and they prefer a halfcourt offensive affair. Duke is going to have its work cut out for itself grinding out possessions, staying with their man, playing a lot of one-on-one defense, and preventing open cuts to the lane. On offense, Duke should have no problem with either Carey or Hurt posting up their man or shooting over the top. There's no reasons for Carey to shoot worse than 70% on his 2-point attempts at Virginia Tech has neither the size or the shot blocking to bother him down there. Making 3's will go a long way to helping Duke as well, to spread Virginia Tech out and relieve the scoring pressure. I expect that Duke is going to struggle forcing TOs against this team. Let's hope the Blue Devils are up to the task after their thrilling victory on Tuesday night.

[Tripping William]

This will be the second ACC game for Virginia Tech as they began the season by beating Clemson on the road, 67-60. They then went on to win their next 5 games to start the Mike Young error on a promising note.

Good opening post, and we can certainly hope the bolded is true.

[budwom]

How well does VT handle the ball? Our defense seems to feast on shaky ballhandling...do the Hokers have a nimble PG?

[DavidBenAkiva]

How well does VT handle the ball? Our defense seems to feast on shaky ballhandling...do the Hokers have a nimble PG?

They are pretty good at protecting the ball. They turn the ball over on 15.4% of possessions, which is good for 15th best in the nation. They also have one of the highest assist rates in the country. This is the profile of a team that likes to spread it out and take a lot of jumpers. and back-door cuts. They don't hound the ball that much and not good at either generating steals or blocks. It's steady, slow, methodical, lots of halfcourt sets, screens, cuts, kick-outs and jump shots.

[Music man55]

Va.Tech always plays us tough up there in Blacksburgh every year. I see this one not being any different. This is a game the Blue devils can win, but I'm thinking it won't be easy. Go Duke!

[DUKIECB]

I like our chances in Blacksburg this year but I am a bit worried about the team being a little tired and/or underprepared. Does anyone know the travel schedule for the last few days? I'm assuming they flew back to Durham very late Tuesday night / Wednesday morning and would then turn around to leave for Blacksburg late today? That's almost no time to prepare for your first conference game in a hostile environment.

[Tripping William]

I like our chances in Blacksburg this year but I am a bit worried about the team being a little tired and/or underprepared. Does anyone know the travel schedule for the last few days? I'm assuming they flew back to Durham very late Tuesday night / Wednesday morning and would then turn around to leave for Blacksburg late today? That's almost no time to prepare for your first conference game in a hostile environment.

K noted in his post-Sparty presser that the team would get back to Durham around 4:00 a.m. on Wednesday and turn around and head for B'burg today. And he wasn't happy about it.

[Billy Dat]

K noted in his post-Sparty presser that the team would get back to Durham around 4:00 a.m. on Wednesday and turn around and head for B'burg today. And he wasn't happy about it.

K from the presser...
We are placed in a very difficult situation, our conference put us in a situation where we will get back at 4 in the morning and literally, we are in the toughest week of our academic year, the week before exams. Two of our kids took tests last night here and now we got to go back and in the next day, Thursday, we fly to Blacksburg (Virginia). It is really not a good scheduling thing by our conference, and we will see how our guys react.

[SavDukeGrad]

K noted in his post-Sparty presser that the team would get back to Durham around 4:00 a.m. on Wednesday and turn around and head for B'burg today. And he wasn't happy about it.

Yes. Saw a picture of the Duke team getting off the bus yesterday morning at Cameron after returning from East Lansing, and it said 4:04am. So Coach K’s prediction was pretty much on the money.

And he was critical of the ACC for the scheduling. He also noted that this week, the week before exams, is the toughest week academically for the players, and that 2 of the players had even taken tests Monday night while they were in Michigan.

[jv001]

Yes. Saw a picture of the Duke team getting off the bus yesterday morning at Cameron after returning from East Lansing, and it said 4:04am. So Coach K’s prediction was pretty much on the money.

And he was critical of the ACC for the scheduling. He also noted that this week, the week before exams, is the toughest week academically for the players, and that 2 of the players had even taken tests Monday night while they were in Michigan.

I knew it was the cheats fault. Way to go Swofford. 9F

GoDuke!

[devildeac]

I knew it was the cheats fault. Way to go Swofford. 9F

GoDuke!

Yep-no worries for them about classes/exams.

[Troublemaker]

The offensive attack for Virginia Tech is predicated on shooting. They take 3's often and make a bunch. Nearly half of their FG attempts on the season are from 3 and they are 3rd in the nation in 3P% at 43.1%.

Thanks for the preview, DBA.

Duke is going to sell out to stop the Hokies' devastating 3-pt shooting attack, and we're just going to have to live with some layups getting made against us.

Look at all this motion / screening / cutting in their offense. C'mon, we're not going to be able to stop everything here with limited preparation time. Stop the 3s, make them 2-pt shooters, live with some layups, and hope that our offense can score enough for the win. To reiterate, we can't have a bad offensive day and expect to win. I wouldn't go so far as to say the offense needs to carry us in this game (although that may be true), but hopefully we put up at least 1.1 points per possession in this one. < 1 ppp is a loss.

[devilseven]

How did Dayton and BYU so effectively handle VA Tech in Maui with little or no preparation time?

[tbyers11]

How did Dayton and BYU so effectively handle VA Tech in Maui with little or no preparation time?

They scored a lot against a porous VT defense. I didn't watch those games like I did VT-MSU but the stats show that VT's defense was very bad.

Also VT had the same amount of limited preparation time as Dayton/BYU did. VT has significantly more prep time than Duke does before Friday's game

[jv001]

They scored a lot against a porous VT defense. I didn't watch those games like I did VT-MSU but the stats show that VT's defense was very bad.

Also VT had the same amount of limited preparation time as Dayton/BYU did. VT has significantly more prep time than Duke does before Friday's game

Maybe VT used the SFA loss to prepare for Duke. I'm always nervous when we have to play the Gobblers in that gym. I love it when we would play them in Roanoke, VA. Not a long drive when I lived in Rockingham County(Mayodan). Got to see one of my non-favorite Duke players there. Dell Curry sure had a sweet shot. I guess his sons got it naturally. GoDuke!

[CDu]

So, a few things that could help us in this game:

1. Va Tech doesn't have very good shot creators. Bede is really smart and savvy, but he's small and slow. So if they are killing us with their motion offense, it wouldn't be the worst idea to switch every screen.

2. They don't force turnovers, which means they'll have to score mainly against our set defense. That's a plus - we've been pretty good in the half-court defense. Where we've struggled is allowing fast-break points off our turnovers.

3. They don't present much resistance at the rim. So when Carey is in, we should be able to punish them in the post. When Carey is out, that should make us even more "switchable", as I think Hurt and White would do just fine guarding guards/wings in this matchup.

4. They don't offensive rebound or draw fouls at all, and when they do draw fouls they aren't good at the line. If we can defend them on the 3pt line and just make them average to good from 3, you stand a really solid chance of winning, because they don't really do anything else overly well on either end of the court.

They looked pretty mediocre offensively against Dayton and Clemson and Coppin St. They looked great offensively against MSU and BYU.

If we had more time to prepare, I'd expect a comfortable win. As is, it may be a matter of hoping that switching everything is enough to disrupt them offensively, that Jones and Goldwire can force enough TOs prior to their halfcourt offense, and/or that Carey is just too much for them inside.

[Saratoga2]

So, a few things that could help us in this game:

1. Va Tech doesn't have very good shot creators. Bede is really smart and savvy, but he's small and slow. So if they are killing us with their motion offense, it wouldn't be the worst idea to switch every screen.

2. They don't force turnovers, which means they'll have to score mainly against our set defense. That's a plus - we've been pretty good in the half-court defense. Where we've struggled is allowing fast-break points off our turnovers.

3. They don't present much resistance at the rim. So when Carey is in, we should be able to punish them in the post. When Carey is out, that should make us even more "switchable", as I think Hurt and White would do just fine guarding guards/wings in this matchup.

4. They don't offensive rebound or draw fouls at all, and when they do draw fouls they aren't good at the line. If we can defend them on the 3pt line and just make them average to good from 3, you stand a really solid chance of winning, because they don't really do anything else overly well on either end of the court.

They looked pretty mediocre offensively against Dayton and Clemson and Coppin St. They looked great offensively against MSU and BYU.

If we had more time to prepare, I'd expect a comfortable win. As is, it may be a matter of hoping that switching everything is enough to disrupt them offensively, that Jones and Goldwire can force enough TOs prior to their halfcourt offense, and/or that Carey is just too much for them inside.

If the game is at a slower pace with us able to set the defense, Carey will probably not have to work as hard and should stay in good shape foul wise. I'd guess he can play more than 25 minutes tonight, which means we should dominate inside for most of the game.

[SkyBrickey]

Thanks for a great overview. What an interesting contrast in styles. Here are the 3-pt shooting percentages for their top 5 players (in mpg): 56 (Horne), 51 (Nolley), 44 (Alleyne), 43 (Catoor), 18 (Bede).

PJ Horne at 6'5" is listed as a forward and the other 4 players, including Nolley, are all listed as guards. We excel at chasing shooters off the 3-point line, but who does Vernon Carey chase around the perimeter? He probably chases Horne who is 14-25 from 3 on the year, or about 1.6 makes per game. We could live with a couple of made 3s out of him in exchange for Vernon dominating on the inside.

Or do end up playing more of Javin, Jack or even Hurt at the 5 to allow us to switch everything and better take away their 3 point threat?

I like our ability to chase them off the 3 point line and limit backdoor layups even more if a healthy Cassius Stanley is back in the lineup...

[Kedsy]

Thanks for a great overview. What an interesting contrast in styles. Here are the 3-pt shooting percentages for their top 5 players (in mpg): 56 (Horne), 51 (Nolley), 44 (Alleyne), 43 (Catoor), 18 (Bede).

PJ Horne at 6'5" is listed as a forward and the other 4 players, including Nolley, are all listed as guards. We excel at chasing shooters off the 3-point line, but who does Vernon Carey chase around the perimeter? He probably chases Horne who is 14-25 from 3 on the year, or about 1.6 makes per game. We could live with a couple of made 3s out of him in exchange for Vernon dominating on the inside.

Or do end up playing more of Javin, Jack or even Hurt at the 5 to allow us to switch everything and better take away their 3 point threat?

I like our ability to chase them off the 3 point line and limit backdoor layups even more if a healthy Cassius Stanley is back in the lineup...

Funny fact: Duke is tied for 80th best three-point percentage in the country (on offense!).

The following list only includes four of our top five in minutes (plus Joey Baker), but if Cassius Stanley plays, Duke could put out a lineup with the following 3pt shooting percentages:

80.0 (Vernon), 52.4 (Joey), 47.4 (Cassius), 41.9 (Matthew), and 34.3 (Tre). Not nearly as many attempts as VaTech, but the percentages match up favorably. Which (since most of us don't think Duke is a very good shooting team) suggests VaTech may not be quite as good at shooting as the numbers you posted imply (though of course, they may be; it's probably too early to tell).

[camion]

The main thing that worries me is that Va Tech has had 10 days to prepare physically, strategically and emotionally for the game.