MBB: Duke v Virginia Tech (Fri, 12/6, 7:00 pm, ACCN) Pre-Game and In-Game Thread

[brevity]

How did Dayton and BYU so effectively handle VA Tech in Maui with little or no preparation time?

Dayton and BYU players looked at their jerseys and noticed that the words “Duke” or “State” were not sewn on them. Virginia Tech may have mentally checked out after the upset win of MSU. They can lose to Dayton and BYU, but if they beat MSU and Duke, they get an honorary belated trip to the 2019 Final Four.

[CDu]

So, a few things that could help us in this game:

1. Va Tech doesn't have very good shot creators. Bede is really smart and savvy, but he's small and slow. So if they are killing us with their motion offense, it wouldn't be the worst idea to switch every screen.

2. They don't force turnovers, which means they'll have to score mainly against our set defense. That's a plus - we've been pretty good in the half-court defense. Where we've struggled is allowing fast-break points off our turnovers.

3. They don't present much resistance at the rim. So when Carey is in, we should be able to punish them in the post. When Carey is out, that should make us even more "switchable", as I think Hurt and White would do just fine guarding guards/wings in this matchup.

4. They don't offensive rebound or draw fouls at all, and when they do draw fouls they aren't good at the line. If we can defend them on the 3pt line and just make them average to good from 3, you stand a really solid chance of winning, because they don't really do anything else overly well on either end of the court.

They looked pretty mediocre offensively against Dayton and Clemson and Coppin St. They looked great offensively against MSU and BYU.

If we had more time to prepare, I'd expect a comfortable win. As is, it may be a matter of hoping that switching everything is enough to disrupt them offensively, that Jones and Goldwire can force enough TOs prior to their halfcourt offense, and/or that Carey is just too much for them inside.

[Saratoga2]

So, a few things that could help us in this game:

1. Va Tech doesn't have very good shot creators. Bede is really smart and savvy, but he's small and slow. So if they are killing us with their motion offense, it wouldn't be the worst idea to switch every screen.

2. They don't force turnovers, which means they'll have to score mainly against our set defense. That's a plus - we've been pretty good in the half-court defense. Where we've struggled is allowing fast-break points off our turnovers.

3. They don't present much resistance at the rim. So when Carey is in, we should be able to punish them in the post. When Carey is out, that should make us even more "switchable", as I think Hurt and White would do just fine guarding guards/wings in this matchup.

4. They don't offensive rebound or draw fouls at all, and when they do draw fouls they aren't good at the line. If we can defend them on the 3pt line and just make them average to good from 3, you stand a really solid chance of winning, because they don't really do anything else overly well on either end of the court.

They looked pretty mediocre offensively against Dayton and Clemson and Coppin St. They looked great offensively against MSU and BYU.

If we had more time to prepare, I'd expect a comfortable win. As is, it may be a matter of hoping that switching everything is enough to disrupt them offensively, that Jones and Goldwire can force enough TOs prior to their halfcourt offense, and/or that Carey is just too much for them inside.

If the game is at a slower pace with us able to set the defense, Carey will probably not have to work as hard and should stay in good shape foul wise. I'd guess he can play more than 25 minutes tonight, which means we should dominate inside for most of the game.

[DavidBenAkiva]

How did Dayton and BYU so effectively handle VA Tech in Maui with little or no preparation time?

Offensive execution. Dayton shot 11-24 from 3 and had a 73.6% eFG% for the game. BYU made half of their 34 3-point attempts (not a lot of teams will lose making 17 3's in a game). They also had a really good shooting night overall and had an eFG% of 68.6. Both teams had > 1.33 points per possession in fairly up-tempo games.

Make shots, speed up Virginia Tech, score around the rim.

[sagegrouse]

They scored a lot against a porous VT defense. I didn't watch those games like I did VT-MSU but the stats show that VT's defense was very bad.

Also VT had the same amount of limited preparation time as Dayton/BYU did. VT has significantly more prep time than Duke does before Friday's game

Of course, VT's view of the Duke team may have changed with Tuesday's Duke win at Michigan State -- Matthew, Javin and Joey, e.g., as well as the return to form of Tre.

[budwom]

FWIW, Ken the Pomeranian has us by five points...ACC road games rarely are easy.

[SkyBrickey]

Thanks for a great overview. What an interesting contrast in styles. Here are the 3-pt shooting percentages for their top 5 players (in mpg): 56 (Horne), 51 (Nolley), 44 (Alleyne), 43 (Catoor), 18 (Bede).

PJ Horne at 6'5" is listed as a forward and the other 4 players, including Nolley, are all listed as guards. We excel at chasing shooters off the 3-point line, but who does Vernon Carey chase around the perimeter? He probably chases Horne who is 14-25 from 3 on the year, or about 1.6 makes per game. We could live with a couple of made 3s out of him in exchange for Vernon dominating on the inside.

Or do end up playing more of Javin, Jack or even Hurt at the 5 to allow us to switch everything and better take away their 3 point threat?

I like our ability to chase them off the 3 point line and limit backdoor layups even more if a healthy Cassius Stanley is back in the lineup...

[Kedsy]

Thanks for a great overview. What an interesting contrast in styles. Here are the 3-pt shooting percentages for their top 5 players (in mpg): 56 (Horne), 51 (Nolley), 44 (Alleyne), 43 (Catoor), 18 (Bede).

PJ Horne at 6'5" is listed as a forward and the other 4 players, including Nolley, are all listed as guards. We excel at chasing shooters off the 3-point line, but who does Vernon Carey chase around the perimeter? He probably chases Horne who is 14-25 from 3 on the year, or about 1.6 makes per game. We could live with a couple of made 3s out of him in exchange for Vernon dominating on the inside.

Or do end up playing more of Javin, Jack or even Hurt at the 5 to allow us to switch everything and better take away their 3 point threat?

I like our ability to chase them off the 3 point line and limit backdoor layups even more if a healthy Cassius Stanley is back in the lineup...

Funny fact: Duke is tied for 80th best three-point percentage in the country (on offense!).

The following list only includes four of our top five in minutes (plus Joey Baker), but if Cassius Stanley plays, Duke could put out a lineup with the following 3pt shooting percentages:

80.0 (Vernon), 52.4 (Joey), 47.4 (Cassius), 41.9 (Matthew), and 34.3 (Tre). Not nearly as many attempts as VaTech, but the percentages match up favorably. Which (since most of us don't think Duke is a very good shooting team) suggests VaTech may not be quite as good at shooting as the numbers you posted imply (though of course, they may be; it's probably too early to tell).

[camion]

The main thing that worries me is that Va Tech has had 10 days to prepare physically, strategically and emotionally for the game.

[CDu]

PJ Horne at 6'5" is listed as a forward and the other 4 players, including Nolley, are all listed as guards. We excel at chasing shooters off the 3-point line, but who does Vernon Carey chase around the perimeter? He probably chases Horne who is 14-25 from 3 on the year, or about 1.6 makes per game. We could live with a couple of made 3s out of him in exchange for Vernon dominating on the inside.

Or do end up playing more of Javin, Jack or even Hurt at the 5 to allow us to switch everything and better take away their 3 point threat?

In a vacuum, I'd say that Carey should be fine guarding either Horne or Nolley. Nolley may be nominally listed as a guard, but he's really a wing forward. He's not blowing by people off the dribble. Similarly, Horne is a really good athlete but not a great dribbler, so he's not a huge blow-by threat either.

The challenge isn't so much who Carey is nominally guarding. It's that Va Tech runs so much off-ball screen action that Carey will either get lost or (if we switch everything) get switched onto someone who can drive on him. Now, that being said, nobody on Va Tech is especially strong at attacking off the dribble. Bede is crafty, but he is more of a drive and kick threat than a drive and finish threat. And if we get stuck with Carey on Bede, I'd suggest that he just sag off Bede a bit and encourage him to shoot it. For everyone else, I think Carey can probably handle defensive duties. At least well enough that he should be a big edge on the other end.

If Carey struggles too much, though, I think White, Moore, and Hurt can do just fine at the PF/C spots in this one. And DeLaurier as well.

[Troublemaker]

80.0 (Vernon), 52.4 (Joey), 47.4 (Cassius), 41.9 (Matthew), and 34.3 (Tre). Not nearly as many attempts as VaTech, but the percentages match up favorably. Which (since most of us don't think Duke is a very good shooting team) suggests VaTech may not be quite as good at shooting as the numbers you posted imply (though of course, they may be; it's probably too early to tell).

I think it's more that we don't fully believe in Duke's shooting yet but our belief could get there eventually. There have been 3 pleasant surprises shooting-wise so far:
(1) Tre is now up to 34.3% from three. Will that continue?
(2) Joey is starting to gain Coach K's trust and earn more playing time. Will that continue? He should move up in the rotation, and Wendell should move down, imo.
(3) Cassius started actually shooting threes and he actually made them (currently 47% from three)! Will that continue (not the 47% but how about he maintains 36+%)?

If we have 3 YES's to the "will that continue" questions, then Duke *is* a good shooting team. In fact, we can play 4-around-1 like Duke typically did before the most recent couple of seasons. I think Duke's best starting lineup eventually may be Tre-Cassius-Joey-Matthew-Vernon with Jack as the 6th man or starter if we need added physicality in certain matchups.

Thanks for the video, TM. I know it goes against Coach K's man2man defense, but how do you think a zone would do against the VT 3 point attack. From what little I know, have heard or read, rebounding is tougher when playing zone. Plus the team will not have had time to work on a zone with such a short turnaround. Just a knee jerk reaction from me after looking at the video. I look for Coach K to go 10 deep in this game but will cut that to 8 in the 2nd half and foul trouble could dictate the rotation as well. GoDuke!

In a vacuum, I like the idea a lot. Syracuse typically defends the three very well, and so did Duke in 2018 when we played our Orange-inspired zone full-time. It's just that we haven't seen this particular Duke team play zone at all this season (maybe a possession or two in an inbounding situation), and I get the sense that we worked almost exclusively on playing great m2m defense in preseason practices. I think switching up to zone here might hurt us more than help us if we can't play a cohesive zone, given limited prep time with the travel and studying for finals and so forth. Playing m2m and switching every screen to the point that our defense looks zone-like at times is probably how we'll play it and probably the right call.

[Bob Green]

I like our ability to chase them off the 3 point line and limit backdoor layups even more if a healthy Cassius Stanley is back in the lineup...

I’d prefer to see Cassius Stanley sit this one out to ensure he is 100 percent healthy. There is no reason for him to be in a rush to get back on the court. There is a long season in front of him.

[FerryFor50]

Given VT’s 3 point prowess and the small lineup, does playing a zone make sense here? Leave Carey/Hurt/White/Javin to patrol the middle and play the 3-2.

[Fish80]

Given VT’s 3 point prowess and the small lineup, does playing a zone make sense here? Leave Carey/Hurt/White/Javin to patrol the middle and play the 3-2.

Fantastic! We’ll play four guys in the middle and two guards on defense! Just keep moving so the refs can’t count. Call it motion defense.

[proelitedota]

Fantastic! We’ll play four guys in the middle and two guards on defense! Just keep moving so the refs can’t count. Call it motion defense.

Can't wait for the 9 v 5 comments from opposing fans when we get a call...

[duke2x]

I was trying to remember if we had won there since 2015...But that gym, omg that gym...

We are in the middle of playing @VT 5 years in a row. While the old round-robin makes that no big deal, VT is one of the hidden difficult places to play. It's an "old barn" like Reynolds and Littlejohn. It's not actually a barn but is a 1940's aircraft hangar that underwent improvements to 1970's orange/maroon carpet on the walls and wooden seats.

I haven't seen VT play, but they have had a week off to prepare for this game. Coach K is usually right when he complains about short turnarounds. The emotional win over MSU will make this tougher than the experts and computers think unless VT has an off shooting night.

[devildeac]

Can't wait for the 9 v 5 comments from opposing fans when we get a call...

Won't get many/any of those in Blacksburg .

[Reilly]

... I'm always nervous when we have to play the Gobblers in that gym. I love it when we would play them in Roanoke, VA. Not a long drive when I lived in Rockingham County(Mayodan). Got to see one of my non-favorite Duke players there. Dell Curry sure had a sweet shot. I guess his sons got it naturally. GoDuke!

Dell had a smooth shot -- still does, I'm sure. The media guide shows a gap from 1978 to 2005 when Duke didn't play VT, so I guess you saw Dell in Roanoke against somebody else.

[Troublemaker]

Given VT’s 3 point prowess and the small lineup, does playing a zone make sense here? Leave Carey/Hurt/White/Javin to patrol the middle and play the 3-2.

In Degenerates, I just put in a bet on Duke to cover 6.5. (Wish I had nabbed the 6 earlier!)

Ultimately, what I get back to is that the thing a team most needs to do when playing VaTech -- stop their 3-pt shooting -- is the thing Duke organically does with our defense, anyway. We are 4th in the country at limiting opponent 3-pt attempts. We pressure the ball and play the passing lanes (forcing longer passes to 3-pt shooters), and we switch every screen so shooters can't come off of screens open.

Those gapping mistakes that MSU made in the video I posted upthread are mistakes that shouldn't happen to Duke. MSU is a gapping team. We are a ball-denial team.

Because our defense organically takes away VaTech's best weapon in the 3-pt shot, the lack of prep time hopefully won't matter that much on our end.

[left_hook_lacey]

Really wanted to make a pick on the VT game. But Duke -7 seems right on the nose for me to pick either team and feel comfortable about it. Darn you Vegas with your perfect lines.