MBB: Duke 87, Michigan State 75 Post-Game Thread

[Skydog]

https://twitter.com/ItsAntWright/sta...73411134078976

Thank you. That made my night!

[Utley]

Oh, and can we now assume that Baker is now solidly in the rotation? Kid can shoot the ball!!

Hard not to think that playing him more last year would have made a big difference. Hard to understand in retrospect

[UrinalCake]

“how did we [lose] to this team last year”? I mean we had frickin Zion and Barrett.

Last year's team was a two-man show. This year we have balance, and got contributions from all over. Tre and Carey were the stars, but multiple guys stepped up at different times in the game and the defensive energy just fed off of each other. Loved seeing Javin get back to being the player we need him to be - solid positional defense, rebounding, finishing at the rim, and nothing more. Great game plan to have the second defender stay attached to Winston on the PNR's, he was never able to get going. Tre completely dominated everyone's national player of the year. Fantastic effort and we even have room to improve.

[DukeFanSince1990]

https://twitter.com/ItsAntWright/sta...73411134078976

From that thread:

IMG_20191204_000944.jpg

[Utley]

Just so happy for Tre. Why does Javin turn into Super Javin when playing Sparty?

[Kedsy]

I assert he [Javin] can't stay in a close game 20 minutes, not even close.

Big game. Not exactly close, but decided by just 12 points. Javin played 19 minutes and had one foul. Where's HereBeforeCoachK?

[TheOldBattleship]

Big game. Not exactly close, but decided by just 12 points. Javin played 19 minutes and had one foul. Where's HereBeforeCoachK?

Really terrific to see him have such a huge impact tonight. Super impactful on both ends, very under control but explosive when the opportunity presented itself; it really was the best version of Javin. Here's hoping he keeps it rolling!

[Kedsy]

Why does Javin turn into Super Javin when playing Sparty?

I think it's just a good matchup for him. In fact, I'll go further and say I think big, not-so-quick teams are good matchups for this year's Duke team. Small, quick teams, not so much. How well we do in the NCAA tournament might just depend on our bracket path.

[mkirsh]

Really impressive, especially considering we were missing Stanley who was second only to Tre in minutes played this year and third on the team in scoring. Great job by Baker to step in and take advantage of the opportunity.

Also a big game from Hurt. He’s starting to catch up to the speed and physicality of this level and has been getting better every game. He has a unique skill set for his size and is a great pairing for Carey.

Loved Javins game tonight. In addition to the dunk fest, our D was really connected when he was on the floor and he was in position to make the right plays. We need someone to tell him we are playing Mich State every night.

And finally, I don’t want to jinx it, but Tre’s shooting is getting so much better. He’s up to 80% from the line this year and 33% from 3 (inclusive of his slow start). He was 2-5 from 3 tonight and one of the misses was all the way in and rattled out. He so much more dangerous if people have to respect that shot so hope he keeps it up!

Great win!

[TheOldBattleship]

And finally, I don’t want to jinx it, but Tre’s shooting is getting so much better. He’s up to 80% from the line this year and 33% from 3 (inclusive of his slow start). He was 2-5 from 3 tonight and one of the misses was all the way in and rattled out. He so much more dangerous if people have to respect that shot so hope he keeps it up!

They were tough shots, too! If I remember correctly, all came off the dribble, so it's not like he's getting his makes on wide-open gifts created by someone else. One of his other misses (the airball towards the end of the game) was an end-of-the-shotclock heave where we just needed to get a shot up to waste time. The stroke definitely looked good today for him.

[Kedsy]

Good win. Eye test told me we turned them over like crazy, but apparently that wasn't entirely true. I do think our D may have been better than the stats, since MSU closed the game on an 8 to 1 run after the game was no longer in doubt.

OFFENSE

Possessions: 75.7 (not too fast; not too slow; I think pace was good for us)
oRtg: 1.15 (pretty good; 4th best oRtg in nine games)
eFG%: 62.3% (excellent; 2nd best eFG of the season)
3pt%: 46.7% (third game out of four with a 3pt% over 46%; who said this team couldn't shoot?)
2pt%: 59.5% (also excellent; 2nd best 2pt marksmanship of the season)
%threes: 26.3% (low, but we'll take it; our four lowest %three performances correspond to our four best 3pt% performances)
FT rate: 38.6% (not bad; sixth consecutive free throw rate over 38.5%)
OR%: 25.0% (bad)
TO%: 19.8% (pretty bad; sixth 19.8+ TO% of the season in nine games, including four in a row)
a/to: 1.47:1 (not bad)
%assisted: 68.8% (pretty high)
fast break pts: 17 (19.5% of points; pretty good)

DEFENSE

dRtg: 0.99 (last four games have been our four worst defensive ppp of the season, but like I said, I think this one is deceptive)
eFG%: 48.4% (meh)
3pt%: 25.0% (good)
2pt%: 52.2% (not good; fourth straight game over 50%)
%threes: 25.8% (good; 7th game out of nine with %threes under 30%)
FT rate: 37.1% (not so good)
DR%: 71.0% (2nd lowest DR% of the season, but at least we're over 70%)
TO%: 18.5% (3rd straight TO performance under 20%, but we got them early when it counted)
a/to: 1.50:1 (3rd straight over 1:1 after our first six games all under 0.72:1)
%assisted: 75.3% (extremely high, but Cassius Winston...)
stl%: 13.2% (good; the fact that 10 of their 14 turnovers were steals made a big difference)
blk%: 17.7% (23.9% of 2pt shots) (whoa Nelly; best block party of the season)
fast break pts: 4 (5.3% of points; fabulous; by far the lowest % of opponent's points this season)


So, I'd say this was a good performance on both sides of the ball. Our defensive numbers weren't eye-popping, but they were adequate in most areas and outstanding in blocks and steals. We didn't force so many turnovers, and coughed up too many ourselves. But the fact that almost all our defensive turnovers were of the live-ball variety and less than half of our offensive turnovers were, led to a huge disparity in fast break points (17 to 4), which was basically the ballgame.

[Blue KevIL]

Duke doesn’t play (or win) true road games.

Since the 1996-97 Season...

Duke has played 39 Non-Confernce Road games (that counts Davidson on 01/03/2013 in Charlotte).
The Blue Devils have a record of 28-11 in those games.

Eight of those games have been in the Big Ten / ACC Challenge (6-2).

Nine more have been at MSG against St. John's (6-3).

Fifteen others have been at NBA arenas often used for the NCAA Tournament or ACC Tournament (12-3).

Only seven games have been On-Campus "True" Road games (4-3):

• Feb-23-1997 at #17 UCLA - L (69-73)
• Nov-16-1997 at UR Army W (78-45)
• Dec-13-1997 at UR Michigan L (73-81)
• Dec-11-1999 at UR Michigan W (104-97)
• Dec-08-2001 at UR Michigan W (104-83)
• Jan-24-2002 at UR Boston College W (88-78)
• Feb-19-2009 at UR Michigan L (73-81)

So, no On-Campus "True" Non-Conference Road games scheduled outside of the Big Ten /ACC Challenge in 11 seasons.
And that 2009 game at Ann Arbor has been the only one scheduled in 18 seasons.

I understand the strategy of playing at MSG and other NBA arenas in Charlotte, Chicago, Philadelphia, Portland and Washington DC in order to prepare for March Tourney games in those type of venues. However, I think scheduling more On-Campus Non-Conference Road games could help better prepare Duke to face ACC Teams on the road. Some recent years have been tough for Duke on the road in the ACC: 2002-03 (3-5), 2004-05 (4-4), 2006-07 (4-4), 2008-09 (4-4), 2012-13 (5-4), 2013-14 (4-5), 2015-16 (5-4), 2016-17 (3-6) and 2017-18 (5-4).

Now, I would imagine that schools such as UCLA in the Steve Lavin days are not too keen on visiting Cameron.
This would make scheduling Home-and-Home with a lot Non-Conference opponents all that much more difficult.
That may be a big reason Duke has not played a whole lot of "True" Road Games in recent years.

[Kedsy]

Some recent years have been tough for Duke on the road in the ACC: 2002-03 (3-5), 2004-05 (4-4), 2006-07 (4-4), 2008-09 (4-4), 2012-13 (5-4), 2013-14 (4-5), 2015-16 (5-4), 2016-17 (3-6) and 2017-18 (5-4).

Is splitting your ACC road games really so terrible? Based on your numbers, it looks like Duke has been .500 or better in road ACC games in 19 of the past 22 seasons. I can't imagine any other ACC team has come close to that much road success.

[Blue KevIL]

Is splitting your ACC road games really so terrible? Based on your numbers, it looks like Duke has been .500 or better in road ACC games in 19 of the past 22 seasons. I can't imagine any other ACC team has come close to that much road success.

No, it's not terrible, but I find it interesting that a number of those .500 or worse seasons have coincided with the lack non-conference "true" road games.
That just puts more pressure on winning the ACC home games -- if Duke has a "bad" ACC home season like 2011-12 (5-3), they might not pull off an 8-0 road record like they did that year.

I understand that the regular season prepares a team for the the post season and that there are only neutral site games in the post season.
However, everyone wants the best possible seed they can get for both the ACC & NCAA tournaments and playing a few more true non-con road games can have its benefits.

[kako]

5 thoughts...

1. Great win, especially without Stanley. I was surprised at Sparty's performance, but Izzo's teams often underperform before January. Anyway, the loss to SFA gets in the rear view mirror.

2. It wasn't JD's reverse dunk with his butt in Wojcik's face, but Jones' steal and drive to the bucket, breaking the defender's ankles (and knees) was pretty cool.

3. Carey continues to show his ability. He's starting to remind me of Sheldon Williams a bit. He may even be more athletic, and he has the outside shot. Though Carey is not nearly as good as Williams was defensively (at least not yet).

4. Interesting countdown chant by the crowd. Starting the "7-6-5..." countdown with less than 5 on the clock fooled me at first. Usually teams countdown early (like in Cameron). Clever.

5. Is Baker for real now? I want to see more, but I like what I see. AOC's minutes would be in jeopardy.

9F

[Blue KevIL]

5 thoughts...

1. Great win, especially without Stanley. I was surprised at Sparty's performance, but Izzo's teams often underperform before January. Anyway, the loss to SFA gets in the rear view mirror.

2. It wasn't JD's reverse dunk with his butt in Wojcik's face, but Jones' steal and drive to the bucket, breaking the defender's ankles (and knees) was pretty cool.

3. Carey continues to show his ability. He's starting to remind me of Sheldon Williams a bit. He may even be more athletic, and he has the outside shot. Though Carey is not nearly as good as Williams was defensively (at least not yet).

4. Interesting countdown chant by the crowd. Starting the "7-6-5..." countdown with less than 5 on the clock fooled me at first. Usually teams countdown early (like in Cameron). Clever.

5. Is Baker for real now? I want to see more, but I like what I see. AOC's minutes would be in jeopardy.

9F

I always thought that would be a great idea for any crowd to try and fool the opponent.
Glad someone else noticed it. It seemed to work well. Well done, Izzone.

[ncexnyc]

After last week's clunkers I was really worried about this game, but man oh man what a fantastic game. I think it was really huge that we got off to a good start and didn't let the crowd get into it.

I was especially impressed with the way the team responded when MSU made that run to start the 2nd half. A lesser team would have packed it in and got blown out of the building.

I see a number of people talk about how great it is to have a shooter like Baker on the team, but this kid is so much more. He's really crafty with those pump fakes, a very heady player and I love the way he attacks on defense as he definitely gets his monies worth on a foul.

[TheOldBattleship]

Good win. Eye test told me we turned them over like crazy, but apparently that wasn't entirely true. I do think our D may have been better than the stats, since MSU closed the game on an 8 to 1 run after the game was no longer in doubt.

...

So, I'd say this was a good performance on both sides of the ball. Our defensive numbers weren't eye-popping, but they were adequate in most areas and outstanding in blocks and steals. We didn't force so many turnovers, and coughed up too many ourselves. But the fact that almost all our defensive turnovers were of the live-ball variety and less than half of our offensive turnovers were, led to a huge disparity in fast break points (17 to 4), which was basically the ballgame.

I'd be really interested, actually, to see the difference in the numbers if you cut out the last 4 min or last 3 min (both are pretty good cut-off points. 4 min was right after Carey scored his final bucket and was clearly starting to wobble and cramp up, and the rest of the team was pretty clearly starting to lay off; 3 min was when Carey came out and we officially had our foot 100% off the gas on both ends). Overall, a 12-6 MSU advantage in that final 4 minutes, and 8-3 (though started by a Duke bucket, as you mention with the 8-1 ending run) in the final 3. To do a quick look-over of the play-by-play of MSU possessions after the 4-min mark:

Carey foul on Tillman - 2/2 FTs
Tillman jumper - 1/1 FG
Marble jumper - 1/1 FG
Winston layup - 1/1 FG
Winston layup miss - 0/1 FG (MSU rebounds)
Henry turnover - 0/0 FG
Henry dunk - 1/1 FG
Watts 3pt miss - 0/1 FG (MSU rebounds)
George layup - 1/1 FG

So, all total, they go 5/7 from the field (offensive rebounding both misses) and 2/2 from the line with a single turnover in that final 4-min period when the game was pretty clearly in hand (or, for that final 3-min period, you cut out the two free throws and one made FG). That would, at the very least, bring the MSU 2-pt FG% down back under 50% for the game.

I know that accounting for garbage time (and deciding what counts as garbage time) is a big issue in basketball stats generally, and that there's no easy way to think about it. But this did strike me as a case where the last few minutes of a game could definitely have skewed the defensive numbers for us a bit more than is typical.

[Kedsy]

I'd be really interested, actually, to see the difference in the numbers if you cut out the last 4 min or last 3 min (both are pretty good cut-off points. 4 min was right after Carey scored his final bucket and was clearly starting to wobble and cramp up, and the rest of the team was pretty clearly starting to lay off; 3 min was when Carey came out and we officially had our foot 100% off the gas on both ends). Overall, a 12-6 MSU advantage in that final 4 minutes, and 8-3 (though started by a Duke bucket, as you mention with the 8-1 ending run) in the final 3. To do a quick look-over of the play-by-play of MSU possessions after the 4-min mark:

Carey foul on Tillman - 2/2 FTs
Tillman jumper - 1/1 FG
Marble jumper - 1/1 FG
Winston layup - 1/1 FG
Winston layup miss - 0/1 FG (MSU rebounds)
Henry turnover - 0/0 FG
Henry dunk - 1/1 FG
Watts 3pt miss - 0/1 FG (MSU rebounds)
George layup - 1/1 FG

So, all total, they go 5/7 from the field (offensive rebounding both misses) and 2/2 from the line with a single turnover in that final 4-min period when the game was pretty clearly in hand (or, for that final 3-min period, you cut out the two free throws and one made FG). That would, at the very least, bring the MSU 2-pt FG% down back under 50% for the game.

I know that accounting for garbage time (and deciding what counts as garbage time) is a big issue in basketball stats generally, and that there's no easy way to think about it. But this did strike me as a case where the last few minutes of a game could definitely have skewed the defensive numbers for us a bit more than is typical.

Assuming your report of the last three minutes is accurate (12 points in 7 possessions), our opposing 2pt% for the first 36 minutes was 48.7% and our defensive ppp for the first 36 minutes of the game was 0.92 (down from 0.99). So, dRtg was a good bit better but not nearly as good as our raw numbers for our first five games.

That said, we should also take into account that according to Pomeroy, Michigan State has the best offense in the country. I don't usually bother with adjusted ppp until after the 1st of the year (because at the moment Pomeroy's ratings are still so dependent on pre-season ratings), but our adjusted dRtg in this game was 0.83. Again using your description of the last four minutes, our adjusted dRtg for the first 36 minutes was 0.76. Which obviously is really good.

[Dukehk]

Remember when we were worried about Vernon Carey not being able to play good defence based on his highschool youtube highlights?

About that..