I thought this post was necessary considering how much overreaction there is to early season results, especially considering we often have no idea who is good and who isn't entering the season, and at this point in the season teams have not faced anywhere near the same level of competition. Case and point: On
November 22 Joe Lunardi had Michigan as essentially a bubble team at an 8 seed. Less than two weeks later the Wolverines are a
No. 1 seed.
So obviously I think we all need some context when it comes to how Duke compares to some of the other top teams at this point in the season, and how that might affect things come March. For lack of a better ranking system I'll use Lunardi's new Bracketology from today. With that in mind, here are the resumes. Note that at this point I'm considering any win over a "power conference" team as a "good win" given how early things are.
No. 1 Seeds
-Louisville: 7-0. Good wins: @Miami.
-Kansas: 6-1. Good wins: Dayton. Loss: Duke.
-Virginia: 7-0. Good wins: @Syracuse, Arizona State.
-Michigan: 7-0. Good wins: Creighton, Iowa State, North Carolina, Gonzaga.
No. 2 Seeds
-Duke: 7-1. Good wins: Kansas, Cal, Georgetown. Loss: SFreakinA
-Michigan State: 5-2. Good wins: Seton Hall, Georgia, UCLA. Losses: Kentucky, Virginia Tech.
-Ohio State: 7-0. Good wins: Cincinnati, Villanova.
-Maryland: 8-0. Good wins: Temple, Marquette.
No. 3 Seeds
-Auburn: 7-0. Good wins: Richmond.
-Gonzaga: 8-1. Good wins: @Texas A&M, Oregon. Loss: Michigan.
-North Carolina: 6-1. Good wins: Notre Dame, Alabama, Oregon. Loss: Michigan.
-Kentucky: 6-1. Good wins: Michigan State. Loss: Evansville.
Notice a trend?
No one has played a proven schedule yet! Outside of Michigan, the three projected top-seeds have a combined two victories against "power conference" (I'm including Dayton and the A-10 in that this year) non-conference opponents (with the early-season ACC game for Virginia and Lousiville a weird outlier). The three B1G teams on the 2 line have a combined two victories against teams that are anywhere near the Top 25 (and honestly, at this point Nova is there more on reputation than anything else). Auburn is somehow on the three line probably just given the 0 in the loss column, as the best team they've played is a Richmond squad that will probably be an A-10 bubble team. Kentucky hasn't played anyone else besides MSU. At least Gonzaga and UNC played some quality opponents in Atlantis.
Every year there are teams that are in the Top 10 during non-conference play who fall into bubble territory, with that early ranking inflated by poor non-conference opponents. The reverse is also true, with teams who struggle in the non-conference often "getting it together" in the conference season, buoyed by the learning experience of playing a tough schedule and the losses that entailed.
We have few useful data points on the vast majority of "top" teams! Obviously we'll learn a lot more after the B1G-ACC Challenge this week, to be sure.
But regardless of what happens, the context is worth keeping in mind. Most of our understanding of who is "good" and who isn't right now is based off of reputation and not performance. It is just now December, after all.