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  1. #1
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    Some early season context: How are the top teams' resumes looking?

    I thought this post was necessary considering how much overreaction there is to early season results, especially considering we often have no idea who is good and who isn't entering the season, and at this point in the season teams have not faced anywhere near the same level of competition. Case and point: On November 22 Joe Lunardi had Michigan as essentially a bubble team at an 8 seed. Less than two weeks later the Wolverines are a No. 1 seed.

    So obviously I think we all need some context when it comes to how Duke compares to some of the other top teams at this point in the season, and how that might affect things come March. For lack of a better ranking system I'll use Lunardi's new Bracketology from today. With that in mind, here are the resumes. Note that at this point I'm considering any win over a "power conference" team as a "good win" given how early things are.

    No. 1 Seeds
    -Louisville: 7-0. Good wins: @Miami.
    -Kansas: 6-1. Good wins: Dayton. Loss: Duke.
    -Virginia: 7-0. Good wins: @Syracuse, Arizona State.
    -Michigan: 7-0. Good wins: Creighton, Iowa State, North Carolina, Gonzaga.

    No. 2 Seeds
    -Duke: 7-1. Good wins: Kansas, Cal, Georgetown. Loss: SFreakinA
    -Michigan State: 5-2. Good wins: Seton Hall, Georgia, UCLA. Losses: Kentucky, Virginia Tech.
    -Ohio State: 7-0. Good wins: Cincinnati, Villanova.
    -Maryland: 8-0. Good wins: Temple, Marquette.

    No. 3 Seeds
    -Auburn: 7-0. Good wins: Richmond.
    -Gonzaga: 8-1. Good wins: @Texas A&M, Oregon. Loss: Michigan.
    -North Carolina: 6-1. Good wins: Notre Dame, Alabama, Oregon. Loss: Michigan.
    -Kentucky: 6-1. Good wins: Michigan State. Loss: Evansville.

    Notice a trend? No one has played a proven schedule yet! Outside of Michigan, the three projected top-seeds have a combined two victories against "power conference" (I'm including Dayton and the A-10 in that this year) non-conference opponents (with the early-season ACC game for Virginia and Lousiville a weird outlier). The three B1G teams on the 2 line have a combined two victories against teams that are anywhere near the Top 25 (and honestly, at this point Nova is there more on reputation than anything else). Auburn is somehow on the three line probably just given the 0 in the loss column, as the best team they've played is a Richmond squad that will probably be an A-10 bubble team. Kentucky hasn't played anyone else besides MSU. At least Gonzaga and UNC played some quality opponents in Atlantis.

    Every year there are teams that are in the Top 10 during non-conference play who fall into bubble territory, with that early ranking inflated by poor non-conference opponents. The reverse is also true, with teams who struggle in the non-conference often "getting it together" in the conference season, buoyed by the learning experience of playing a tough schedule and the losses that entailed. We have few useful data points on the vast majority of "top" teams! Obviously we'll learn a lot more after the B1G-ACC Challenge this week, to be sure.

    But regardless of what happens, the context is worth keeping in mind. Most of our understanding of who is "good" and who isn't right now is based off of reputation and not performance. It is just now December, after all.
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  2. #2
    Quote Originally Posted by scottdude8 View Post
    I thought this post was necessary considering how much overreaction there is to early season results, especially considering we often have no idea who is good and who isn't entering the season, and at this point in the season teams have not faced anywhere near the same level of competition. Case and point: On November 22 Joe Lunardi had Michigan as essentially a bubble team at an 8 seed. Less than two weeks later the Wolverines are a No. 1 seed.

    So obviously I think we all need some context when it comes to how Duke compares to some of the other top teams at this point in the season, and how that might affect things come March. For lack of a better ranking system I'll use Lunardi's new Bracketology from today. With that in mind, here are the resumes. Note that at this point I'm considering any win over a "power conference" team as a "good win" given how early things are.

    No. 1 Seeds
    -Louisville: 7-0. Good wins: @Miami.
    -Kansas: 6-1. Good wins: Dayton. Loss: Duke.
    -Virginia: 7-0. Good wins: @Syracuse, Arizona State.
    -Michigan: 7-0. Good wins: Creighton, Iowa State, North Carolina, Gonzaga.

    No. 2 Seeds
    -Duke: 7-1. Good wins: Kansas, Cal, Georgetown. Loss: SFreakinA
    -Michigan State: 5-2. Good wins: Seton Hall, Georgia, UCLA. Losses: Kentucky, Virginia Tech.
    -Ohio State: 7-0. Good wins: Cincinnati, Villanova.
    -Maryland: 8-0. Good wins: Temple, Marquette.

    No. 3 Seeds
    -Auburn: 7-0. Good wins: Richmond.
    -Gonzaga: 8-1. Good wins: @Texas A&M, Oregon. Loss: Michigan.
    -North Carolina: 6-1. Good wins: Notre Dame, Alabama, Oregon. Loss: Michigan.
    -Kentucky: 6-1. Good wins: Michigan State. Loss: Evansville.

    Notice a trend? No one has played a proven schedule yet! Outside of Michigan, the three projected top-seeds have a combined two victories against "power conference" (I'm including Dayton and the A-10 in that this year) non-conference opponents (with the early-season ACC game for Virginia and Lousiville a weird outlier). The three B1G teams on the 2 line have a combined two victories against teams that are anywhere near the Top 25 (and honestly, at this point Nova is there more on reputation than anything else). Auburn is somehow on the three line probably just given the 0 in the loss column, as the best team they've played is a Richmond squad that will probably be an A-10 bubble team. Kentucky hasn't played anyone else besides MSU. At least Gonzaga and UNC played some quality opponents in Atlantis.

    Every year there are teams that are in the Top 10 during non-conference play who fall into bubble territory, with that early ranking inflated by poor non-conference opponents. The reverse is also true, with teams who struggle in the non-conference often "getting it together" in the conference season, buoyed by the learning experience of playing a tough schedule and the losses that entailed. We have few useful data points on the vast majority of "top" teams! Obviously we'll learn a lot more after the B1G-ACC Challenge this week, to be sure.

    But regardless of what happens, the context is worth keeping in mind. Most of our understanding of who is "good" and who isn't right now is based off of reputation and not performance. It is just now December, after all.
    Thanks for this perspective. This isn't college football (thank goodness) where early polls actually have repercussions downstream. Duke will have **plenty** of opportunities to work their way back to a top seed.

  3. #3
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15 View Post
    Thanks for this perspective. This isn't college football (thank goodness) where early polls actually have repercussions downstream. Duke will have **plenty** of opportunities to work their way back to a top seed.
    fortunately this year it seems like college football will sort itself out. It ought to almost assuredly be SEC champ, OSU, Clemson, and B12 champ.
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  4. #4
    And we all know why ScottDude started this thread....

    After the week Michigan had, who can blame him?
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  5. #5
    Quote Originally Posted by HereBeforeCoachK View Post
    And we all know why ScottDude started this thread...

    After the week Michigan had, who can blame him?
    They/he earned it.

  6. #6
    Early returns so far this season as a whole point to it being wide open. I wouldn't be surprised to see a mid-major win it all this year.

  7. #7
    scottdude8's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by HereBeforeCoachK View Post
    And we all know why ScottDude started this thread...

    After the week Michigan had, who can blame him?
    I mean, it was one of the greatest weeks in Michigan athletics’ history. Because nothing else happened to Michigan sports. Nothing. Because it’s basketball season, and only basketball season.

    Must... maintain... cognitive... dissonance...

  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by uh_no View Post
    fortunately this year it seems like college football will sort itself out. It ought to almost assuredly be SEC champ, OSU, Clemson, and B12 champ.
    I don't know, if Georgia beats LSU then there's going to be some who say a 1-loss LSU team should get in. And I don't think it's clear cut that a 1 loss B12 champ beats out a 1 loss Utah that wins the Pac-12, especially if Baylor upsets Oklahoma. Especially if LSU loses there is still gonna be plenty of drama.
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  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by scottdude8 View Post
    I don't know, if Georgia beats LSU then there's going to be some who say a 1-loss LSU team should get in. And I don't think it's clear cut that a 1 loss B12 champ beats out a 1 loss Utah that wins the Pac-12, especially if Baylor upsets Oklahoma. Especially if LSU loses there is still gonna be plenty of drama.
    sigh. it's silly. if you lose your conference championship, you should be last to get in...and then only if there's nobody close to reasonable to take your place. You lose your league championship, you only have yourself to blame.
    Dear kindly Sergeant Swofford
    You gotta understand
    It's just a class was offered
    every student in the land!
    Our students all are flunkies
    Our teachers all are chumps
    Golly Moses, a total garbage dump!

    Gee, Officer Swofford
    We're down on our knees
    'Cause we don't want to take down such a banner as these
    Gee, Officer Swofford
    What are we to do?
    Gee, Officer Swofford
    Swoff you!

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by scottdude8 View Post
    I don't know, if Georgia beats LSU then there's going to be some who say a 1-loss LSU team should get in. And I don't think it's clear cut that a 1 loss B12 champ beats out a 1 loss Utah that wins the Pac-12, especially if Baylor upsets Oklahoma. Especially if LSU loses there is still gonna be plenty of drama.
    Don't want to turn this thread into a college football playoff discussion, but I think that if LSU loses to Georgia (particularly if the game is reasonably close) then LSU's resume of wins over Texas, Florida, Auburn, and Alabama will easily trump the best wins of any of the other 1-loss teams. Plus, a loss to a playoff bound Georgia would be the best loss of any 1-loss team. Best wins and best loss makes it a very easy decision for the committee.

    -Jason "Scott is correct that the Big Ten-ACC challenge will help us a lot in terms of basketball and the top teams... 6 top 3 seeds playing each other will provide some good guidance" Evans
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by uh_no View Post
    sigh. it's silly. if you lose your conference championship, you should be last to get in...and then only if there's nobody close to reasonable to take your place. You lose your league championship, you only have yourself to blame.
    I wholeheartedly agree... but recent history shows the CFP committee might not. If by 2030 the playoff hasn't expanded such that winning a Power 5 conference is an auto-bid to the playoff I'd be shocked.
    Scott Rich on the front page

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    If you have questions about Michigan Basketball/Football, I'm your man!

  12. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by 907bluedevils View Post
    I wouldn't be surprised to see a mid-major win it all this year.
    The last time a mid-major team won the NCAA tournament, the term “mid-major” had not yet been invented. So I would be very surprised.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    The last time a mid-major team won the NCAA tournament, the term “mid-major” had not yet been invented. So I would be very surprised.
    Only thanks to whoever flipped the switch on the A/C unit just as Gordon Heyward let that half-courter fly . . . . . .
    "Amazing what a minute can do."

  14. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    The last time a mid-major team won the NCAA tournament, the term “mid-major” had not yet been invented. So I would be very surprised.
    depends on if you count BE/AAC.

    Memphis and butler came close enough even before that shakeup for me to not think it impossible.
    Dear kindly Sergeant Swofford
    You gotta understand
    It's just a class was offered
    every student in the land!
    Our students all are flunkies
    Our teachers all are chumps
    Golly Moses, a total garbage dump!

    Gee, Officer Swofford
    We're down on our knees
    'Cause we don't want to take down such a banner as these
    Gee, Officer Swofford
    What are we to do?
    Gee, Officer Swofford
    Swoff you!

  15. #15
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    Anyone who thinks Gonzaga and Dayton don't have a shot to win it all is simply not paying attention this season.
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  16. #16
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Anyone who thinks Gonzaga and Dayton don't have a shot to win it all is simply not paying attention this season.
    Dayton is the real deal this year.

  17. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tripping William View Post
    Only thanks to whoever flipped the switch on the A/C unit just as Gordon Heyward let that half-courter fly . . . . . .
    Was that you, Tripping William? If so, you deserve lifetime sporkzzzzzzzzzz.

    GoDuke!

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    Quote Originally Posted by jv001 View Post
    Was that you, Tripping William? If so, you deserve lifetime sporkzzzzzzzzzz.

    GoDuke!
    I've been sworn to secrecy.
    "Amazing what a minute can do."

  19. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tripping William View Post
    Only thanks to whoever flipped the switch on the A/C unit just as Gordon Heyward let that half-courter fly . . . . . .
    A/C? I thought a butterfly flapped its wings in Terre Haute.
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  20. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Anyone who thinks Gonzaga and Dayton don't have a shot to win it all is simply not paying attention this season.
    Dayton is a team I already want to avoid if we are fortunate enough to make the NCAA. Flyers are for real.
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