MBB: Duke 83, Winthrop 70 Post-Game Thread

[accfanfrom1970]

Well, you ACCN viewers, how did they look?

I'm stuck looking at box scores like it's 1987.

It was a very uneven performance. Offensively Hurt and Baker shot well, Baker nearly perfect. Tre made some shots, as did Carey. However we turned the ball over way too much.

But defensively? Like against SFA they seemed to be able to get into the lane at will, especially off the dribble. Help D was weak.

I guess Tuesday will show if this was a step forward or not.

[Steven43]

I think it was after he landed. He didn't seem to react like he was in pain until after he landed.

Okay, sure, but why did he have trouble completing what should have been a very easy bring-the crowd-to-their-feet dunk?? I didn’t notice him fumbling with the ball on the way up or anything like that. Cassius Stanley can make this kind of dunk in his sleep. What else would explain him completely bungling it other than that he hurt himself just before, or right as, he began his jump?

[Kedsy]

I can’t remember a Duke team that outplayed in the long run their early season performance. In other words, the first 10 to 15 games are usually pretty indicative of the kind of team we have.

Here's Duke's last 15 seasons with records for first 10 and first 15 games:

Year	10 gms	15 gms	Final	NCAAT
2019	9-1	14-1	32-6	E8
2018	9-1	13-2	29-8	E8
2017	9-1	13-2	28-9	R32
2016	9-1	13-2	25-11	S16
2015	10-0	14-1	35-4	Ch
2014	8-2	12-3	26-9	R64
2013	10-0	15-0	30-6	E8
2012	9-1	13-2	27-7	R64
2011	10-0	15-0	32-5	S16
2010	9-1	13-2	35-5	Ch
2009	9-1	14-1	30-7	S16
2008	10-0	14-1	28-6	R32
2007	9-1	14-1	22-11	R64
2006	10-0	15-0	32-4	S16
2005	10-0	15-0	27-6	S16

Sorry, I don't see a correlation. Also, hard to "outplay" our performance in these early games. Not sure this tells us anything at all.

[FerryFor50]

Okay, sure, but why did he have trouble completing what should have been a very easy bring-the crowd-to-their-feet dunk?? I didn’t notice him fumbling with the ball on the way up or anything like that. Cassius Stanley can make this kind of dunk in his sleep. What else would explain him completely bungling it other than that he hurt himself just before or right as he began his jump?

Maybe he started to jump and realized he wasn't in a position to dunk it. But he didn't seem to make any face like he was hurt on the way up.

[jv001]

Here's Duke's last 15 seasons with records for first 10 and first 15 games:

Year	10 gms	15 gms	Final	NCAAT
2019	9-1	14-1	32-6	E8
2018	9-1	13-2	29-8	E8
2017	9-1	13-2	28-9	R32
2016	9-1	13-2	25-11	S16
2015	10-0	14-1	35-4	Ch
2014	8-2	12-3	26-9	R64
2013	10-0	15-0	30-6	E8
2012	9-1	13-2	27-7	R64
2011	10-0	15-0	32-5	S16
2010	9-1	13-2	35-5	Ch
2009	9-1	14-1	30-7	S16
2008	10-0	14-1	28-6	R32
2007	9-1	14-1	22-11	R64
2006	10-0	15-0	32-4	S16
2005	10-0	15-0	27-6	S16

Sorry, I don't see a correlation. Also, hard to "outplay" our performance in these early games. Not sure this tells us anything at all.

I agree, it looks like we played very well in those games. Our out of conference schedule has been fairly weak except for tournament play. This years team just seems to be different than the last several teams. I guess it's because we don't have top ten NBA talent this season. Well, unless Carey turns out to be that good. GoDuke!

[sagegrouse]

Do you think Stanley actually hurt himself BEFORE he missed the shot and landed? I was at the game and didn’t have the benefit of replay, but it seemed very very strange that a big-time leaper like Cassius Stanley would have an unguarded breakaway dunk and not even effectively reach the rim. Any thoughts?

I tend to agree with you. Don't you "pop" a hamstring -- i.e., overextend it? I didn't see anything at all on the landing.

[ChillinDuke]

I'll take it.

But man, Javin and Wendell were nearly unplayable tonight. Waiting for the day when Javin stops playing entitled - strong words I know, but I think fits how I seem him playing right now. Wendell, OTOH, is a freshman and going through ups and downs - but today was a down day, very down.

Hoping Cassius is ok. He looks like he blew a tire elevating, which shouldn't mean an ACL but could mean something else equally problematic. Hoping for the best.

Great half from Hurt. Carey continues to play VERY well. Loved Goldwire and Baker tonight. It wasn't pretty but we got it done.

- Chillin

[Steven43]

Javin and Wendell were nearly unplayable tonight. Waiting for the day when Javin stops playing entitled - strong words I know, but I think fits how I seem him playing right now. Wendell, OTOH, is a freshman and going through ups and downs - but today was a down day, very down.

Yeah, I was very impressed with Moore when he was playing PG against Central Arkansas. But I haven’t seen that athletic, confident, skillful version of him since. Obviously, the potential is there, though.

[sagegrouse]

Here's Duke's last 15 seasons with records for first 10 and first 15 games:

Year	10 gms	15 gms	Final	NCAAT
2019	9-1	14-1	32-6	E8
2018	9-1	13-2	29-8	E8
2017	9-1	13-2	28-9	R32
2016	9-1	13-2	25-11	S16
2015	10-0	14-1	35-4	Ch
2014	8-2	12-3	26-9	R64
2013	10-0	15-0	30-6	E8
2012	9-1	13-2	27-7	R64
2011	10-0	15-0	32-5	S16
2010	9-1	13-2	35-5	Ch
2009	9-1	14-1	30-7	S16
2008	10-0	14-1	28-6	R32
2007	9-1	14-1	22-11	R64
2006	10-0	15-0	32-4	S16
2005	10-0	15-0	27-6	S16

Sorry, I don't see a correlation. Also, hard to "outplay" our performance in these early games. Not sure this tells us anything at all.

Hi, Kedsy. we should focus on 15 games -- there is no meaningful variation in the ten-game results -- every year is either zero or one loss.

I did look in some detail at the 15 game results and agree with you that there's not much there. Here is the loss percentage for the remainder of the season where the team lost the listed number of games in the first 15:

Zero -- 25.9 percent -- 82 games -- four seasons
One -- 28.7 percent -- 106 games -- five seasons
Two -- 28.1 percent -- 109 games -- five seasons
Three -- 30.0 percent -- 20 games -- one season (essentially meaningless)

Cheers,
Sage

[rsvman]

...

As to ACCN? UGH! The yapperheads are awful.

Thankfully, they reminded us that we have a tough game coming up on Tuesday against the Michigan Wolverines, so we can be adequately prepared.



SMH

[Furniture]

Do you think Stanley actually hurt himself BEFORE he missed the shot and landed? I was at the game and didn’t have the benefit of replay, but it seemed very very strange that a big-time leaper like Cassius Stanley would have an unguarded breakaway dunk and not even effectively reach the rim. Any thoughts?

had to be before. He would have 100% dunked that if he could of...

[killerleft]

Chat had this one a W from the start. Never in doubt.

That's why I stayed away. All of that optimism is too saccharin for me.

[Troublemaker]

Wendell, OTOH, is a freshman and going through ups and downs - but today was a down day, very down.

Yeah, I was very impressed with Moore when he was playing PG against Central Arkansas. But I haven’t seen that athletic, confident, skillful version of him since. Obviously, the potential is there, though.

My quick take on Wendell, since he's going to be the key player that needs to step up during the time that Cassius is out. (Ironically, even though Joey's played much fewer minutes, I have total confidence in him as a starter. Joey's going to hit threes, put up 120+ offensive ratings [as compared to Wendell's sub-90 offensive rating for the season on high usage!], and play passable defense.)

Wendell so far has shown an inability to function in the three main things Duke runs on offense: the horns set, the floppy set, and motion. For example, there was a floppy action last night in which Wendell curled into the lane to receive the pass, and he's open to shoot. 100% of the time, the Duke perimeter player takes the shot there or if the defense is collapsing hard on him, kicks out for an open three. Instead, Wendell pauses with the ball in his hands. He does nothing, allowing the defense to reset and forcing him to create something out of nothing. (The possession ended badly but I can't remember whether it was a turnover or missed shot).

Anyway, that's pretty typical of Wendell not doing the right thing in these sets or in motion. There *is* one set piece that Wendell likes and can function in right now, and that's spread pick-n-roll with him as the ballhandler up top. To clarify, that means Duke puts 3 stationary shooters on the wings (stationary for an easy read for the ballhandler), and then Vernon or Javin comes up to set a ball screen for him to drive into open space, and he'll either score at the rim or kick out depending on how the defense reacts. He's actually pretty good making reads and being efficient out of spread pick-n-roll, and up until recently, it was responsible for almost all of his scoring.

I think to get Wendell going and to make him effective while Cassius is out, Duke needs to accommodate him and run this set piece for him more often. The great thing is that Joey's emergence dovetails well with this suggestion. You put Matthew, Joey, and Tre (who has improved his shooting) as the stationary shooters on the wing while Vernon comes up to set the ball screen for Wendell. I believe Wendell will produce 120 offensive ratings (personal and team) out of this setup.

[Devilwin]

The defense is the big issue right now. Too many inside shots allowed..

[lotusland]

The Duke focus on D was to run Winthrop off of the three point line which opened up the lane. The defense was a little uneven but some of it was by design. I was surprised how much PT JGold got after Stanley went out but he earned it. I hope AOC can earn some more PT. He’ll need to be a reliable defender and secondary ball handler.

[BobBender]

The defense is the big issue right now. Too many inside shots allowed..

Kansas was supposed to be a team that should have given us trouble inside and they didn’t. So it’s head-scratching to watch the weak interior defense last two games against mediocre opponents. The Devils should never have to play Winthrop at home and win with ‘grit’ ( Jim Sumner’s word, not mine)

[HereBeforeCoachK]

The defense is the big issue right now. Too many inside shots allowed..

That was certainly the case against SFA, but with Winthrop, it's a bit different. With their roster wide three point shooting and two very good penetrators, they are a tough team to defend. I'm not sure why they'd lost so many games coming into this one. They've been in the top 3 nationally shooting treys something like 4 years running. That's in their DNA.

[devilnfla]

Good game by Hurt and Baker. Good game by Tre but 5 TOs is too many. Hate to rain on the Joey Buckets party but Vernon Carey is MOM again.

Disagree on Carey, I would split it between Hurt and Baker with honorable mention to Goldwire for his much needed defense.

[ChillinDuke]

Do you think Stanley actually hurt himself BEFORE he missed the shot and landed? I was at the game and didn’t have the benefit of replay, but it seemed very very strange that a big-time leaper like Cassius Stanley would have an unguarded breakaway dunk and not even effectively reach the rim. Any thoughts?

It had to be before. Not only would he have slammed that down with the might of a thousand Thors, but if he had too little runway he would've easily laid it up. The outright miss told me that something happened that took his focus away from basketball for a significant enough portion of that liftoff.

My quick take on Wendell, since he's going to be the key player that needs to step up during the time that Cassius is out. (Ironically, even though Joey's played much fewer minutes, I have total confidence in him as a starter. Joey's going to hit threes, put up 120+ offensive ratings [as compared to Wendell's sub-90 offensive rating for the season on high usage!], and play passable defense.)

Wendell so far has shown an inability to function in the three main things Duke runs on offense: the horns set, the floppy set, and motion. For example, there was a floppy action last night in which Wendell curled into the lane to receive the pass, and he's open to shoot. 100% of the time, the Duke perimeter player takes the shot there or if the defense is collapsing hard on him, kicks out for an open three. Instead, Wendell pauses with the ball in his hands. He does nothing, allowing the defense to reset and forcing him to create something out of nothing. (The possession ended badly but I can't remember whether it was a turnover or missed shot).

Anyway, that's pretty typical of Wendell not doing the right thing in these sets or in motion. There *is* one set piece that Wendell likes and can function in right now, and that's spread pick-n-roll with him as the ballhandler up top. To clarify, that means Duke puts 3 stationary shooters on the wings (stationary for an easy read for the ballhandler), and then Vernon or Javin comes up to set a ball screen for him to drive into open space, and he'll either score at the rim or kick out depending on how the defense reacts. He's actually pretty good making reads and being efficient out of spread pick-n-roll, and up until recently, it was responsible for almost all of his scoring.

I think to get Wendell going and to make him effective while Cassius is out, Duke needs to accommodate him and run this set piece for him more often. The great thing is that Joey's emergence dovetails well with this suggestion. You put Matthew, Joey, and Tre (who has improved his shooting) as the stationary shooters on the wing while Vernon comes up to set the ball screen for Wendell. I believe Wendell will produce 120 offensive ratings (personal and team) out of this setup.

I agree with all of this. I remember the play you're referencing and that is exactly what Wendell is struggling with. His decision making stutters and then the play stutters and then you have a Cam Reddish force it situation for the rest of the play. Wendell has a lot of nice tools, but he's a work in progress - definitely not a surefire OAD to me. Still possible if his development ratchets. I stand by my analogy that his road can go Reddish (flatline all year) or Tatum (hyperbolic growth into postseason) - will be interesting to watch.

I said it after SFA and I'll point out after this game that Goldwire isn't as black and white as some argue. His ability to push Tre off ball on offense is interesting, especially as Tre's 3pt shooting just breached 33% (and seemingly increasing). And Jordan's defense is solid, especially on ball and in passing lanes. If Tre is going to play 40 mins a game (and I bet he will, in big games) then I think we NEED Jordan to play meaningful 10-15 mins a game in a role that allows Tre to recharge on the perimeter on offense, not having to initiate and muscle and focus on decision-making for a few plays. Similar on defense not having to solely disrupt the point of attack. (The analogy here is baseball pitchers and high stress pitches. Tre's pitch count is going to be high every game but you want to get him as many low-stress pitches as you can to manage him.)

The emergence of Baker offers some interesting combos with Goldwire-Jones-Stanley/Baker-Hurt/White-Carey.

AOC and Moore can join the party when they figure out their consistency.

And Javin can join the party when he stops thinking he simply deserves to make every play he initiates. (Strong words - but Javin is very disappointing so far)


- Chillin

[SkyBrickey]

We will miss Cassius. He’s our one wing who can do it all. Shoot, drive, defend, rebound. It’s an opportunity for the other guys to step up just like Baker did last night.

Jack with 8 minutes. Alex with 6. It’s very interesting watching Coach tinker with the lineup. It’s basically 7-8 guys but not always the same 7-8.

Will Alex get a chance now to play himself back into the rotation after two 6 minute games?