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  1. #161
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    New Bern, NC unless it's a home football game then I'm grilling on Devil's Alley
    Quote Originally Posted by uh_no View Post
    they lost at home last week to #292 Texas A&M Corpus Christi, and have lost by double digits to the other two potential tournament teams they've played. If they keep losing games like that, and then win their conference tournament, they could easily slip down to a 16. Gardner webb was ranked 163.

    They're ranked 122 or so...lets look at the rankings of seeds from last year
    13:73, 89,106,76
    14:77, 96,113,124
    15:161,137,126,152

    13 seed seems way out of the picture. 14/15 is where they'd live today, depending on other AQ, and they could easily slip down to GW territory, given they've climbed to where they are.

    Also note that the rankings given here will be artificially suppressed due to all those teams losing in the tournament. If anyone wants to download the pre-tourney data and dig it up, feel free.

    In any case, it's totally plausible for SFA to slip down into the 160+ rank and end up as a 16, perhaps unlikely given what we've seen of them, but "virtually no scenario" is way too strong a statement.

    And regardless if it is a 14, 15, or 16 seed, it's still a very bad loss for what we want to believe and the computers claim is the best team in the country.
    FWIW, (debatabley not much) Lunardi has them as a 13.
    Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."

  2. #162
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    Durham
    Quote Originally Posted by CameronBornAndBred View Post
    FWIW, (debatabley not much) Lunardi has them as a 13.
    so a lock for a 15 then.
    oof

    "If you don't address the things you're not doing well when you're winning the winning will eventually stop."

    -David Cutcliffe

  3. #163
    Quote Originally Posted by uh_no View Post
    how is SFA a good loss? Sure they're not the 250 ranked team people thought they were, but they're still outside the top 100 teams in the country.

    This was the equivalent of duke losing to a 16 seed. At home.

    I'm not sure I can see I can paint that as a good loss in any stretch.
    Yes, but itís way early in a season for a young team, thatís a huge difference from a 1 seed losing to a 16 in March.

  4. #164
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Location
    NC Raised, DC Resident
    Quote Originally Posted by uh_no View Post
    so a lock for a 15 then.
    And if they do get their AQ, their team sheet will likely list @DUKE in the notable wins column. That's bound to be meaningful to the human people who assign seeds. I suspect the other prospective 13, 14, 15, and 16 seeds will have less notable achievements to consider.

    Caveat: obviously, still a lot of season left to play.
    Haters gonna hate.

  5. #165
    Quote Originally Posted by uh_no View Post
    Also note that the rankings given here will be artificially suppressed due to all those teams losing in the tournament. If anyone wants to download the pre-tourney data and dig it up, feel free.
    Pre-Tournament Pomeroy:

    13-seeds: 75, 79, 80, 104
    14-seeds: 82, 100, 111, 112
    15-seeds: 129, 137, 145, 165

    SFU is currently at #122, so between #14 and #15 sounds about right. Hard to say which way the committee would lean, though SFU does have that big Q1 win...

  6. Regardless of 13, 14, 15 or 16, a "dominant" and "elite" team wouldn't lose to SFA at home.

    We're most likely a very good team that's currently top 1-3 in the country but can also lose to anyone in the tournament.

  7. #167
    Quote Originally Posted by ice-9 View Post
    Regardless of 13, 14, 15 or 16, a "dominant" and "elite" team wouldn't lose to SFA at home.

    We're most likely a very good team that's currently top 1-3 in the country but can also lose to anyone in the tournament.
    Or... We're much better than we were six weeks ago

  8. #168
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Undisclosed
    Or . . . We’re a dominant team that had a single slip. KenPom has us as the #2 offense, #4 defense, and #1 overall. TeamRankings has our schedule 3rd-hardest to date.

    https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-ba...ength-by-other

    We are not perfect. But with the exception of one slip, we’ve been pretty dominant by and large.
    "We're only tourists in this life
    Only tourists but the view is nice"

    -- David Byrne

  9. #169
    Quote Originally Posted by Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15 View Post
    Or... We're much better than we were six weeks ago

    Bingo.

    I have no problem since it give the chance to scoff...I love scoffing.
    Nothing incites bodily violence quicker than a Duke fan turning in your direction and saying 'scoreboard.'

  10. Haha well...I guess I'm the glass half empty guy.

    I do think this team's better self-identity is not one of an elite team expecting to roll over teams...this team IMO needs a blue-collar identity, playing hard on defense and accepting of roles in the offense.

  11. #171
    Win games and all works out. Polls on 1/14 don't mean much.

  12. #172
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    Durham
    Quote Originally Posted by Indoor66 View Post
    Win games and all works out. Polls on 1/14 don't mean much.
    polls on any date don't mean much

  13. #173
    Quote Originally Posted by ice-9 View Post
    Haha well...I guess I'm the glass half empty guy.

    I do think this team's better self-identity is not one of an elite team expecting to roll over teams...this team IMO needs a blue-collar identity, playing hard on defense and accepting of roles in the offense.
    No one is suggesting our team ease up, but when you look at the results the last two weeks, what do you think would happen if SFA came to Cameron this coming weekend?

    Our team didn't peak in December (thank God) as some of our previous squads seemed to. We're getting better on both ends of the floor, our leaders are emerging, and we've got the most balanced and deep roster most of us can remember.

    I'm not saying we're going to run the table here, but if you don't see our team has it together better at this point in the season, we will have to agree to disagree.

  14. #174
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Undisclosed
    Quote Originally Posted by uh_no View Post
    polls on any date don't mean much
    True. But it is a thread on polls . . . .
    "We're only tourists in this life
    Only tourists but the view is nice"

    -- David Byrne

  15. #175
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    New Bern, NC unless it's a home football game then I'm grilling on Devil's Alley
    Quote Originally Posted by uh_no View Post
    polls on any date don't mean much
    They do on April 7th.
    Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."

  16. #176
    Quote Originally Posted by CameronBornAndBred View Post
    They do on April 7th.
    That will not be a poll. 😎

  17. Quote Originally Posted by Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15 View Post
    No one is suggesting our team ease up, but when you look at the results the last two weeks, what do you think would happen if SFA came to Cameron this coming weekend?

    Our team didn't peak in December (thank God) as some of our previous squads seemed to. We're getting better on both ends of the floor, our leaders are emerging, and we've got the most balanced and deep roster most of us can remember.

    I'm not saying we're going to run the table here, but if you don't see our team has it together better at this point in the season, we will have to agree to disagree.
    Still think that though?

    Don't get me wrong I love this team I just don't think it's dominant and elite like the 1999 and 2001 teams. This year's is a very good team that needs to play well and hard to win.

  18. #178
    Quote Originally Posted by ice-9 View Post
    Still think that though?

    Don't get me wrong I love this team I just don't think it's dominant and elite like the 1999 and 2001 teams. This year's is a very good team that needs to play well and hard to win.
    Yeah, my post aged poorly.

    99 and 01 are an awfully high bar.

  19. #179

    Devils 8th in both polls

    Still in top 10.

    Louisville and FSU make big jumps. Louisville 6th in AP and 5th in Coaches. FSU 5th in AP, 6th in Coaches.

    As one would expect, nobody else from ACC in top 25. Virginia only other team that even gets any votes.

    AP - Baylor jumps ahead of Gonzaga
    1 Baylor
    2 Gonzaga
    3 Kansas
    4 San Diego State
    5 Florida State
    6 Louisville
    7 Dayton
    8 Duke
    9 Villanova
    10 Seton Hall

    Coaches

    1 Gonzaga
    2 Baylor
    3 Kansas
    4 San Diego State
    5 Louisville
    6 Florida State
    7 Dayton
    8 Duke
    9 Michigan State
    10 Seton Hall

  20. #180
    Quote Originally Posted by Hartford Dukie View Post
    Still in top 10.

    Louisville and FSU make big jumps. Louisville 6th in AP and 5th in Coaches. FSU 5th in AP, 6th in Coaches.

    As one would expect, nobody else from ACC in top 25. Virginia only other team that even gets any votes.

    AP - Baylor jumps ahead of Gonzaga
    1 Baylor
    2 Gonzaga
    3 Kansas
    4 San Diego State
    5 Florida State
    6 Louisville
    7 Dayton
    8 Duke
    9 Villanova
    10 Seton Hall

    Coaches

    1 Gonzaga
    2 Baylor
    3 Kansas
    4 San Diego State
    5 Louisville
    6 Florida State
    7 Dayton
    8 Duke
    9 Michigan State
    10 Seton Hall
    Apparently with Baylorís ascension to number 1 in the AP there have been 7 different 1st place teams this season which ties for the most ever. The season is still pretty young so could break the record. Makes me excited for a wide open tournament!

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