AP and Coaches' 2020 Polls

[JasonEvans]

Apparently with Baylor’s ascension to number 1 in the AP there have been 7 different 1st place teams this season which ties for the most ever. The season is still pretty young so could break the record. Makes me excited for a wide open tournament!

With two losses last week by Butler, it would appear San Diego St and FSU are the most likely candidates to be #8. I am not sure SDSU's schedule will ever allow them to rise to the top and there are selfish reasons I don't want FSU to get there (because a win at Cameron is almost certain to be a part of FSU's potential #1 spot resume).

-Jason "my bet is that we don't find a 7th #1 team this season" Evans

[brevity]

Duke stays at #8 in the Coaches Poll (no one ahead of Duke lost last week), but moves down to #9 in the AP poll, leapfrogged by Villanova, who beat Butler and Providence.

What's weird is that if you look at the voting breakdown, more voters put Duke in their Top 10 than last week, and Duke gained ten points, from 1065 to 1084. Villanova just enjoyed a bigger increase, from 1055 to 1110. (This is despite one rogue voter who has Duke #2 and Villanova #21.) This week they play at St. John's and then a home game vs. Creighton.

Keep an eye on #10 Seton Hall, who has a pair of home games against unranked DePaul and Xavier. There's a chance they jump Duke as well, even if Duke beats Pitt and Syracuse. Just behind them is #11 Oregon and #12 West Virginia, the latter of which can impress if they win at Texas Tech this week.

I don't know if poll voters feel better about the Big East or Big XII, but they seem to have noticed the ACC's off-year and have adjusted accordingly. Win or lose, Duke's Top 10 streak is at risk.

[brevity]

Duke stays at #8 in the Coaches Poll (no one ahead of Duke lost last week), but moves down to #9 in the AP poll, leapfrogged by Villanova, who beat Butler and Providence.

What's weird is that if you look at the voting breakdown, more voters put Duke in their Top 10 than last week, and Duke gained ten points, from 1065 to 1084. Villanova just enjoyed a bigger increase, from 1055 to 1110. (This is despite one rogue voter who has Duke #2 and Villanova #21.) This week they play at St. John's and then a home game vs. Creighton.

Keep an eye on #10 Seton Hall, who has a pair of home games against unranked DePaul and Xavier. There's a chance they jump Duke as well, even if Duke beats Pitt and Syracuse. Just behind them is #11 Oregon and #12 West Virginia, the latter of which can impress if they win at Texas Tech this week.

I don't know if poll voters feel better about the Big East or Big XII, but they seem to have noticed the ACC's off-year and have adjusted accordingly. Win or lose, Duke's Top 10 streak is at risk.

As far as staying in the AP Top 10, things played out kind of ideally for Duke, seeing as how #12 West Virginia lost on Wednesday and #8 Villanova, #10 Seton Hall, and #11 Oregon all lost on Saturday. (As did #13 Kentucky, #14 Michigan State, and #16 Butler.) #15 Maryland, #17 Auburn and #22 LSU will move up significantly, but no one is jumping over Duke.

#5 Florida State was the highest ranked team to lose this week, so Duke might move up to #7.

[fisheyes]

Duke stays in Top Ten at #7. Seems fair...

1 Kansas (24-3)
2 Baylor (24-2)
3 Gonzaga (27-2)
4 Dayton (25-2)
5 San Diego State (26-1)
6 Florida State (23-4)
7 Duke (23-4)
8 Kentucky (22-5)
9 Maryland (22-5)
10 Creighton (22-6)
11 Louisville (23-5)

[Duke79UNLV77]

Duke stays in Top Ten at #7. Seems fair...

1 Kansas (24-3)
2 Baylor (24-2)
3 Gonzaga (27-2)
4 Dayton (25-2)
5 San Diego State (26-1)
6 Florida State (23-4)
7 Duke (23-4)
8 Kentucky (22-5)
9 Maryland (22-5)
10 Creighton (22-6)
11 Louisville (23-5)

I wonder when the last year was that 3 of the top 5 were from small conferences this late in the season?

[UrinalCake]

How long until idiot fans with zero context for what happened to other teams will start complaining that Duke lost to an unranked team and only dropped one spot?

[kAzE]

How long until idiot fans with zero context for what happened to other teams will start complaining that Duke lost to an unranked team and only dropped one spot?

I wouldn't argue if anyone said we should have dropped more. I thought the AP would drop us to 9 or 10. We had probably the worst loss of anyone in the top 10. Yes, NC State is a much better team than BYU or UNLV, but we lost by 22. That was a bad, bad loss.

We should still be on the 2 line for seeding, because one can reasonably anticipate that we'll climb back up the polls being favored in the rest of our regular season games, but the polls are weekly snapshot type of thing, so I'm actually surprised we're still #7.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

How long until idiot fans with zero context for what happened to other teams will start complaining that Duke lost to an unranked team and only dropped one spot?

We do have the head to head victory against the team ahead of us too

[robed deity]

I wouldn't argue if anyone said we should have dropped more. I thought the AP would drop us to 9 or 10. We had probably the worst loss of anyone in the top 10. Yes, NC State is a much better team than BYU or UNLV, but we lost by 22. That was a bad, bad loss.

We should still be on the 2 line for seeding, because one can reasonably anticipate that we'll climb back up the polls being favored in the rest of our regular season games, but the polls are weekly snapshot type of thing, so I'm actually surprised we're still #7.

Agree, and the advanced metrics would disagree with you about BYU. They are actually a pretty dangerous team, especially offensively.

[Dr. Rosenrosen]

Agree, and the advanced metrics would disagree with you about BYU. They are actually a pretty dangerous team, especially offensively.

And they were ranked 23 last week. Now 17. While NC state has 0 votes.

[Bluedog]

I wouldn't argue if anyone said we should have dropped more. I thought the AP would drop us to 9 or 10. We had probably the worst loss of anyone in the top 10. Yes, NC State is a much better team than BYU or UNLV, but we lost by 22. That was a bad, bad loss.

We should still be on the 2 line for seeding, because one can reasonably anticipate that we'll climb back up the polls being favored in the rest of our regular season games, but the polls are weekly snapshot type of thing, so I'm actually surprised we're still #7.

For whatever reason, poll voters seem to typically weigh outcomes the same whether the win (or loss) is by 1 or 20. Only on the fringes does it enter into their decision-making. Theoretically, barely beating the CHeats could have dropped us, but it didn't.

[jv001]

I wouldn't argue if anyone said we should have dropped more. I thought the AP would drop us to 9 or 10. We had probably the worst loss of anyone in the top 10. Yes, NC State is a much better team than BYU or UNLV, but we lost by 22. That was a bad, bad loss.

We should still be on the 2 line for seeding, because one can reasonably anticipate that we'll climb back up the polls being favored in the rest of our regular season games, but the polls are weekly snapshot type of thing, so I'm actually surprised we're still #7.

I thought the same thing about BYU until I watched them beat the Zags. And they were rated #23 before the win. I was impressed with that group of young men.

GoDuke!

[Kedsy]

I wonder when the last year was that 3 of the top 5 were from small conferences this late in the season?

You have to go back to 1987, when UNLV, DePaul (then an independent), and Temple were all in the top 5 on February 24.

February 21, 2006 was close, with Memphis and Gonzaga in the top 5 and George Washington #6. Only other years since 1987 that had even two such teams in the top 5 were 2004 (St. Joseph's and Gonzaga), 2000 (Cincinnati and Temple), and 1988 (Temple and UNLV).

[richmclean]

SFA receiving votes in AP and Coaches polls. Jus sayin’ ...

[JasonEvans]

I forget how long it is, but we have a pretty impressive streak of being in the Top Ten that is sure to end this coming week.

I would guess we will be down around #12.

I can sense an 11 game win streak though...

[brevity]

I forget how long it is, but we have a pretty impressive streak of being in the Top Ten that is sure to end this coming week.

I would guess we will be down around #12.

I can sense an 11 game win streak though...

According to page 4 of the PDF Pregame Notes for the Virginia game, Duke has been in the Top 10 of 41 consecutive AP polls.

I'm of two minds on this subject. I don't think Duke deserves a Top 10 ranking (and I haven't for a while), but I can't name ten teams that definitely deserve it more. I felt darkly relieved that the streak would be over after losing 2 games this week, one to a really bad opponent, but now I wonder what will happen to #7 Duke when you also factor in losses by #6 Florida State, #9 Maryland, #10 Creighton, #11 Louisville, #12 Villanova, #15 Auburn, and #16 Penn State.

If we assume the Top 5 teams stay in the top 5 positions (with Baylor moving down somewhat), you can imagine a poll stringing along Duke in the Top 10 for another week:

6. Kentucky
7. Seton Hall
8. Florida State
9. Oregon
10. Duke
11. Maryland
12. Creighton
13. Louisville
14. BYU
15. Villanova

I know what you're thinking, and it looks wrong to me too. FSU at #8 looks about right, but not the rest of them. Kentucky #6? They're a 4 seed now, maybe a 3. Pollsters may have to stop blindly raising major conference teams that win out the week and start paying attention to likely seeding.

[OldPhiKap]

I'm of two minds on this subject. I don't think Duke deserves a Top 10 ranking (and I haven't for a while), but I can't name ten teams that definitely deserve it more.

this, in a nutshell.

[Tripping William]

Duke checks in at #12 in the AP poll today.

[robed deity]

this, in a nutshell.

Does anyone have an opinion on who might win this thing? Because I really have no idea this year.

[OldPhiKap]

Does anyone have an opinion on who might win this thing? Because I really have no idea this year.

I do not, for sure.