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  1. #221
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    Quote Originally Posted by budwom View Post
    Well Jim, this is true, Duke has been at least 3-5 in ACC play in six of the last seven years.
    All of this points to the fact that we are a mid-level ACC team in the 4-4 range give or take a game each season. Much better than before; not as well as we would like to be.

    But other than Clemson, who has consistently stayed up top? FSU, Miami and VT have cratered. Duke, Wake, and UVA have come off the bottom. UNC has consistently underperformed relative to recruited talent. We have one good team and fourteen so-so P5 teams.

    This hits the nail on the head for this year, but seems to be most years the last decade: https://www.usatoday.com/story/sport...ch/2589569001/

    Quote Originally Posted by budwom View Post
    But I think you have to admit, that's a nice massage of reality.
    Another way of looking at it is that over the past four seasons, we are 10-22 in ACC play, which would seem to be a better description of where we are now...
    I agree that the last few years have featured great starts, and then struggles to the finish once we hit conference play. We need to become a team that can consistently hit .500 or better in the conference, although as stated above there are a lot of teams over the last seven years that are in our same boat.

    Quote Originally Posted by budwom View Post
    let's see what Cut chooses to do, if anything, this off season...
    Yup. I am sure he will evaluate everything and come up with a plan. Even if it's not the solution the board wants.
    "We're only tourists in this life
    Only tourists but the view is nice"

    -- David Byrne

  2. #222
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
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    New Bern, NC unless it's a home football game then I'm grilling on Devil's Alley
    Quote Originally Posted by jimsumner View Post
    Duke has been at least 3-5 in ACC play 6 of the last 7 years. In other words, no worse than one win from .500. That seems like getting somewhere near .500 in conference play consistently.
    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap View Post
    All of this points to the fact that we are a mid-level ACC team in the 4-4 range give or take a game each season. Much better than before; not as well as we would like to be.
    I respect both of you a lot, but y'all are looking at this through some seriously blue tinted glasses.
    "At least 3-5", "seems like getting somewhere near .500", "no worse than one win from .500", and "in the 4-4 range" being tossed out as positives is, well, not positive.

    This is our past schedule. We have to go all the way back to 2014 to find a winning year, and to 2015 just to break even.

    2019 3-5
    2018 3-5
    2017 3-5
    2016 1-7
    2015 4-4
    2014 5-3

    How anyone can look at that and be happy is beyond me. I'm like everyone here, I was there in the dark days of Duke football; I know exactly how dismal it was. But just because it has "improved" doesn't mean that it's what I want to settle for. I want to see us on the other side of that 3-5 number with regularity. I also have faith that Cutcliffe can make it happen, at least if he is willing to make some changes.
    Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."

  3. #223
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    Jun 2008
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    Winston Salem, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by CameronBornAndBred View Post
    I respect both of you a lot, but y'all are looking at this through some seriously blue tinted glasses.
    "At least 3-5", "seems like getting somewhere near .500", "no worse than one win from .500", and "in the 4-4 range" being tossed out as positives is, well, not positive.

    This is our past schedule. We have to go all the way back to 2014 to find a winning year, and to 2015 just to break even.

    2019 3-5
    2018 3-5
    2017 3-5
    2016 1-7
    2015 4-4
    2014 5-3

    How anyone can look at that and be happy is beyond me. I'm like everyone here, I was there in the dark days of Duke football; I know exactly how dismal it was. But just because it has "improved" doesn't mean that it's what I want to settle for. I want to see us on the other side of that 3-5 number with regularity. I also have faith that Cutcliffe can make it happen, at least if he is willing to make some changes.
    If Duke had a good OC, I firmly believe we would have been 4-4 or 5-3 this season and this was suppose to be down year. We wasted a good defense with some awful offense at times and our QB play was below par. I'm in the camp of let's see what Coach Cut does this offseason. GoDuke!

  4. #224
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    Quote Originally Posted by CameronBornAndBred View Post
    I respect both of you a lot, but y'all are looking at this through some seriously blue tinted glasses.
    "At least 3-5", "seems like getting somewhere near .500", "no worse than one win from .500", and "in the 4-4 range" being tossed out as positives is, well, not positive.

    This is our past schedule. We have to go all the way back to 2014 to find a winning year, and to 2015 just to break even.

    2019 3-5
    2018 3-5
    2017 3-5
    2016 1-7
    2015 4-4
    2014 5-3

    How anyone can look at that and be happy is beyond me. I'm like everyone here, I was there in the dark days of Duke football; I know exactly how dismal it was. But just because it has "improved" doesn't mean that it's what I want to settle for. I want to see us on the other side of that 3-5 number with regularity. I also have faith that Cutcliffe can make it happen, at least if he is willing to make some changes.
    All fair points, and to be clear it's not what I want to settle for either. My general point is that, with the exception of Clemson, almost every team in the ACC is in the mediocre middle.

    Believe me, the Peach-fil-A and Sun Bowls were a whole lot more fun than the Pinstripe, Belk, and Detroit (Motor City?) Bowl games. And all of that is better than sitting home.
    "We're only tourists in this life
    Only tourists but the view is nice"

    -- David Byrne

  5. #225
    Would someone who insists that we underperformed by more than a game (UNC, inexplicable loss) like to point to any preseason list that had us competing for the division?

  6. #226
    Quote Originally Posted by CameronBornAndBred View Post
    I respect both of you a lot, but y'all are looking at this through some seriously blue tinted glasses.
    "At least 3-5", "seems like getting somewhere near .500", "no worse than one win from .500", and "in the 4-4 range" being tossed out as positives is, well, not positive.

    This is our past schedule. We have to go all the way back to 2014 to find a winning year, and to 2015 just to break even.

    2019 3-5
    2018 3-5
    2017 3-5
    2016 1-7
    2015 4-4
    2014 5-3

    How anyone can look at that and be happy is beyond me. I'm like everyone here, I was there in the dark days of Duke football; I know exactly how dismal it was. But just because it has "improved" doesn't mean that it's what I want to settle for. I want to see us on the other side of that 3-5 number with regularity. I also have faith that Cutcliffe can make it happen, at least if he is willing to make some changes.
    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap View Post
    All fair points, and to be clear it's not what I want to settle for either. My general point is that, with the exception of Clemson, almost every team in the ACC is in the mediocre middle.

    Believe me, the Peach-fil-A and Sun Bowls were a whole lot more fun than the Pinstripe, Belk, and Detroit (Motor City?) Bowl games. And all of that is better than sitting home.
    There has been a bunch of mediocrity in the ACC besides Clemson, but I'm not sure I'd say all teams are equal in this regard. Here are the ACC records since 2014 (using same timeframe as above, going back 5 years to the last season Duke was above .500 plus five seasons seems like a reasonable timeframe):

    Code:
    team	win	loss	Pct
    clemson	44	4	0.917
    FSU	29	19	0.604
    pitt	28	20	0.583
    miami	28	20	0.583
    va tech	27	21	0.563
    lville	26	22	0.542
    unc	23	25	0.479
    gatech	22	26	0.458
    nc st	21	27	0.438
    uva	20	28	0.417
    duke	19	29	0.396
    bc	18	30	0.375
    wfu	16	32	0.333
    cuse	15	33	0.313
    I would argue that (in addition to Clemson) FSU, Pitt, Miami, Va Tech, and Louisville have been mostly "above the middle" and are in a different tier for this timeframe than the rest of the ACC teams.

  7. #227
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Durham, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15 View Post
    Would someone who insists that we underperformed by more than a game (UNC, inexplicable loss) like to point to any preseason list that had us competing for the division?
    Syracuse was considered a loss pre-season because they were expected to be a top 25 team. They were decidedly not that this year, and by the time that game rolled around it had changed from "likely loss" to "should win". Pre-season expectations have to be adjusted based on in-season evidence.

  8. #228
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    Nov 2007
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    Vermont
    Quote Originally Posted by Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15 View Post
    Would someone who insists that we underperformed by more than a game (UNC, inexplicable loss) like to point to any preseason list that had us competing for the division?
    I can't point to any list, but I can point to Cutcliffe who annually maintains that our goal is to compete for championships, something we have failed to do for at least the past four years.
    One of his best (of many) attributes) is his insistence that everyone in the program be accountable.
    My position, like many others on this and other boards, is that while our defense is arguably good enough to compete for championships, our offense is nowhere close to that. I am hopeful that coach will
    assess his offensive staff in an honest manner, and do what needs to be done.

  9. #229
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    Nov 2007
    Location
    Durham, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by Bluedog View Post
    There has been a bunch of mediocrity in the ACC besides Clemson, but I'm not sure I'd say all teams are equal in this regard. Here are the ACC records since 2014 (using same timeframe as above, going back 5 years to the last season Duke was above .500 plus five seasons seems like a reasonable timeframe):

    Code:
    team    win    loss    Pct
    clemson    44    4    0.917
    FSU    29    19    0.604
    pitt    28    20    0.583
    miami    28    20    0.583
    va tech    27    21    0.563
    lville    26    22    0.542
    unc    23    25    0.479
    gatech    22    26    0.458
    nc st    21    27    0.438
    uva    20    28    0.417
    duke    19    29    0.396
    bc    18    30    0.375
    wfu    16    32    0.333
    cuse    15    33    0.313
    I would argue that (in addition to Clemson) FSU, Pitt, Miami, Va Tech, and Louisville have been mostly "above the middle" and are in a different tier for this timeframe than the rest of the ACC teams.
    There is also a lot of coaching turnover in the group below that...every team except for Duke and NC State (who hired Doeren one year before, 2013).

  10. #230
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    Oct 2009
    Location
    Durham
    Quote Originally Posted by Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15 View Post
    Would someone who insists that we underperformed by more than a game (UNC, inexplicable loss) like to point to any preseason list that had us competing for the division?
    given that duke is typically picked to finish last in the division almost every year, regardless of who they field, it speaks more about the media's ignorance of duke's prospects more than the actual potential of the team. Recruiting is a better benchmark.

    Further, under-performing begets decreased future expectation anyway, so pointing to preseason expectations doesn't absolve duke of anything.
    Last edited by uh_no; 12-03-2019 at 11:00 AM.
    Dear kindly Sergeant Swofford
    You gotta understand
    It's just a class was offered
    every student in the land!
    Our students all are flunkies
    Our teachers all are chumps
    Golly Moses, a total garbage dump!

    Gee, Officer Swofford
    We're down on our knees
    'Cause we don't want to take down such a banner as these
    Gee, Officer Swofford
    What are we to do?
    Gee, Officer Swofford
    Swoff you!

  11. #231
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bluedog View Post
    I would argue that (in addition to Clemson) FSU, Pitt, Miami, Va Tech, and Louisville have been mostly "above the middle" and are in a different tier for this timeframe than the rest of the ACC teams.
    True, but the flip side is that FSU, Miami and VT have been abysmal lately -- certainly against their standards. Particularly FSU and Miami, which have programs used to competing for championships.

    When is the next scheduled time for Cut to meet the press? Or is there nothing pre-scheduled until next spring?
    "We're only tourists in this life
    Only tourists but the view is nice"

    -- David Byrne

  12. #232
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    New Bern, NC unless it's a home football game then I'm grilling on Devil's Alley
    Quote Originally Posted by uh_no View Post
    given that duke is typically picked to finish last in the division almost every year, regardless of who they field, it speaks more about the media's ignorance of duke's prospects more than the actual potential of the team. Recruiting is a better benchmark.

    Further, under-performing begets decreased future expectation anyway, so pointing to preseason expectations doesn't absolve duke of anything.
    While we are rarely picked in the upper half, you actually have to go all the way back to 2013 to find the last time we were picked to be in the basement.

    ACC Preseason Media Projections
    2019 Duke 5th in Coastal (ahead of unc/GT) 6 first place votes
    2018 Duke 4th in Coastal (ahead of Pitt/unc/UVA) 1 first place vote
    2017 Duke 6th in Coastal (ahead of UVA) 4 first place votes
    2016 Duke 5th in Coastal (ahead of GT/UVA) 2 first place votes
    2015 Duke 4th in Coastal (ahead of unc/Pitt/UVA) 4 first place votes
    2014 Duke 2nd in Coastal (ahead of VT/unc/GT/Pitt/UVA) 33 first place votes
    2013 Duke 7th in Coastal
    Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."

  13. #233
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    Nov 2007
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    Durham, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap View Post
    True, but the flip side is that FSU, Miami and VT have been abysmal lately -- certainly against their standards. Particularly FSU and Miami, which have programs used to competing for championships.

    When is the next scheduled time for Cut to meet the press? Or is there nothing pre-scheduled until next spring?
    Abysmal by their standards, but still markedly better than us WRT results (some head to head wins against Miami/VT notwithstanding).

  14. #234
    Quote Originally Posted by CameronBornAndBred View Post
    While we are rarely picked in the upper half, you actually have to go all the way back to 2013 to find the last time we were picked to be in the basement.

    ACC Preseason Media Projections
    2019 Duke 5th in Coastal (ahead of unc/GT) 6 first place votes
    2018 Duke 4th in Coastal (ahead of Pitt/unc/UVA) 1 first place vote
    2017 Duke 6th in Coastal (ahead of UVA) 4 first place votes
    2016 Duke 5th in Coastal (ahead of GT/UVA) 2 first place votes
    2015 Duke 4th in Coastal (ahead of unc/Pitt/UVA) 4 first place votes
    2014 Duke 2nd in Coastal (ahead of VT/unc/GT/Pitt/UVA) 33 first place votes
    2013 Duke 7th in Coastal
    Thank you for offering an actual answer instead of snide remarks or anecdotal replies.

    We were picked 5th and finished 6th. The difference between expectations and reality was the horrible jump pass against UNC.

    That was terrible - no one disagrees with that. But let's stop pretending like the wheels have somehow come off

  15. #235
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    Oct 2009
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    Durham
    Quote Originally Posted by Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15 View Post
    Thank you for offering an actual answer instead of snide remarks or anecdotal replies.

    We were picked 5th and finished 6th. The difference between expectations and reality was the horrible jump pass against UNC.

    That was terrible - no one disagrees with that. But let's stop pretending like the wheels have somehow come off

    If it were a 1 year deal, I would agree with you...but low projections are impacted by years of being <500. So we are meeting the bar that we ourselves caused to be lowered. It's more like one wheel coming off each year than 4 wheels coming off this year.
    Dear kindly Sergeant Swofford
    You gotta understand
    It's just a class was offered
    every student in the land!
    Our students all are flunkies
    Our teachers all are chumps
    Golly Moses, a total garbage dump!

    Gee, Officer Swofford
    We're down on our knees
    'Cause we don't want to take down such a banner as these
    Gee, Officer Swofford
    What are we to do?
    Gee, Officer Swofford
    Swoff you!

  16. #236
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Durham, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15 View Post
    Thank you for offering an actual answer instead of snide remarks or anecdotal replies.

    We were picked 5th and finished 6th. The difference between expectations and reality was the horrible jump pass against UNC.

    That was terrible - no one disagrees with that. But let's stop pretending like the wheels have somehow come off
    I would still have serious concerns about the current state of the team even if we had beaten UNC on that play (assuming the rest of the season played out as it did). I also remain unconvinced that "we were projected to have x wins, and we finished with x wins" is an open and shut discussion ender for "was the season a disappointment".

  17. #237
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    Vermont
    Quote Originally Posted by Acymetric View Post
    I would still have serious concerns about the current state of the team even if we had beaten UNC on that play (assuming the rest of the season played out as it did). I also remain unconvinced that "we were projected to have x wins, and we finished with x wins" is an open and shut discussion ender for "was the season a disappointment".
    Agreed. I really don't know any avid fans who watch all of our games, and attend many, who feel the offense is well coached.
    With regard to expectations, I expected a down year (4-5 wins) BUT a good bounce back next year. I no longer feel that way unless the offensive woes are addressed.

  18. #238
    Quote Originally Posted by Acymetric View Post
    I would still have serious concerns about the current state of the team even if we had beaten UNC on that play (assuming the rest of the season played out as it did). I also remain unconvinced that "we were projected to have x wins, and we finished with x wins" is an open and shut discussion ender for "was the season a disappointment".
    Well, I don't pretend to have the answer to what number of wins ought to leave fans not disappointed. But, I figure that comparing our results with the predictions of sports media folks ought to give us a reasonable bar.

    I'm bowing out of this thread, as I don't care for the negativity levied at Cut, and I'm clearly in the minority in being happy with the current state of our program both on and off the field.

  19. #239
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    Feb 2007
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    Steamboat Springs, CO
    Quote Originally Posted by budwom View Post
    Agreed. I really don't know any avid fans who watch all of our games, and attend many, who feel the offense is well coached.
    With regard to expectations, I expected a down year (4-5 wins) BUT a good bounce back next year. I no longer feel that way unless the offensive woes are addressed.
    Are the turnovers the primary responsibility of the coaches? Quintin , #18 on the field, had 18 TO's -- 11 interceptions and seven fumbles lost. Cost us the Pitt game, at least. He made some great plays, but...
    Sage Grouse

    ---------------------------------------
    'When I got on the bus for my first road game at Duke, I saw that every player was carrying textbooks or laptops. I coached in the SEC for 25 years, and I had never seen that before, not even once.' - David Cutcliffe to Duke alumni in Washington, DC, June 2013

  20. #240
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    Durham, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by sagegrouse View Post
    Are the turnovers the primary responsibility of the coaches? Quintin , #18 on the field, had 18 TO's -- 11 interceptions and seven fumbles lost. Cost us the Pitt game, at least. He made some great plays, but...
    I feel like I probably talk out of both sides of my mouth on this (or at least come across this way), because it is tricky. On the one hand, yes the players have to play well and execute. The coaches can't go out on the field and play for them. On the other hand, it is the coaches' responsibility to recruit, develop players, and implement schemes to mitigate player weaknesses, so "the problem is player execution or lack of quality players" still parses as a coaching problem to me (especially at the college level, I probably tend to shift more responsibility towards the players in the pros whether that is reasonable or not).

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