Two teams on the slide playing on a probably cold November night. Increasingly ACC football is a made (only) for TV event.
From ACC
Atlantic Coast Conference football game times and networks for the weekend of Nov. 23 have been updated. On Saturday, Nov. 23, Pitt will play at Virginia Tech at 3:30 p.m. on ESPN2 and Duke will play at Wake Forest at 7:30 p.m. on ACCN.
Thursday, Nov. 21
NC State at Georgia Tech, 8 p.m., ESPN
Saturday, Nov. 23
Liberty at Virginia, Noon, RSN
Boston College at Notre Dame, 2:30 p.m., NBC
Mercer at North Carolina, 3:30 p.m., RSN
Pitt at Virginia Tech, 3:30 p.m., ESPN2 (updated)
Syracuse at Louisville, 4 p.m., ACCN
Miami at FIU, 7 p.m., CBSSN
Duke at Wake Forest, 7:30 p.m., ACCN (updated)
Open Dates: Clemson, Florida State
Two teams on the slide playing on a probably cold November night. Increasingly ACC football is a made (only) for TV event.
Per espn FPI, WFU is #53 in the country, and Duke is #67. Duke with a 32% chance of beating WFU, and a 10% chance of winning out and getting 6 wins: http://www.espn.com/college-football...=150&year=2019
Per SRS, WFU is #40 in the country and Duke #73, and WFU about 5 points better on a neutral field -- so, 8 points at home: https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb...9-ratings.html
Duke leads all-time 58-39-2 ... Cut at Duke is 5-6 against WFU (5-2 since 2012).
Wake Forest (58-39-2)
1889 N L 0-32
1889 A W 8-4
1893 N W 12-6
1921 N W 17-0
1922 N W 3-0
1923 A L 6-16
1924 H L 0-32
1925 H L 3-21
1926 N L 0-21
1927 A W 32-6
1928 H W 38-0
1929 H W 20-0
1930 A T 13-13
1931 H W 28-0
1932 H W 9-0
1933 H W 22-0
1934 H W 28-7
1935 N W 26-7
1936 A W 20-0
1937 H W 67-0
1938 N W 7-0
1939 H W 6-0
1940 A W 23-0
1941 H W 43-14
1942 A L 7-20
1944 H W 34-0
1945 A W 26-19
1946 H W 13-0
1947 A W 13-6
1948 H L 20-27
1949 H L 7-27
1950 H L 7-13
1951 H L 13-19
1952 A W 14-7
1953 H W 19-0
1954 A W 28-21
1955 H W 14-0
1956 A W 26-0
1957 H W 34-7
1958 A W 29-0
1959 H W 27-15
1960 A W 34-7
1961 H W 23-3
1962 A W 50-0
1963 H W 39-7
1964 A L 7-20
1965 H W 40-7
1967 N W 31-13
1968 H W 18-3
1969 A W 27-20
1970 H L 14-28
1971 A L 7-23
1972 H L 7-9
1973 A T 7-7
1974 H W 23-7
1975 A W 42-14
1976 H L 17-38
1977 A W 38-14
1978 H W 3-0
1979 A L 14-17
1980 H L 24-27
1981 A W 31-10
1982 H W 46-26
1983 A W 31-21
1984 H L 16-20
1985 A L 7-27
1986 H W 38-36
1987 A L 27-30
1988 H L 16-35
1989 A W 52-35
1990 H W 57-20
1991 A L 14-31
1992 H L 14-28
1993 A W 21-13
1994 A W 51-26
1995 H W 42-26
1996 A L 16-17
1997 H L 24-38
1998 A W 19-16
1999 H W 48-35
2000 A L 26-28
2001 H L 35-42
2002 A L 10-36
2003 H L 13-42
2004 A L 22-24
2005 H L 6-44
2006 A L 13-14
2007 H L 36-41
2008 OT A L 30-33
2009 H L 34-45
2010 A L 48-54
2011 H L 23-24
2012 A W 34-27
2013 A W 28-21
2014 H W 41-21
2015 A W 27-21
2016 H L 14-24
2017 A W 31-23
2018 H L 7-59
In 2017, Duke was 4-6 and beat GT and WFU at the end of the year. GT ended the year as the #39 best team; WFU #22. Duke finished #37 (w/ an O (0.46) that paled in comparison to its D (6.77)). https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb...7-ratings.html
In 2019, Duke is 4-6 and needs to beat WFU and Mia at the end of the year. WFU is #40 best team now; Mia #35. Duke is #73 (w/ an O (-1.83) that pales in comparison to its D (1.99)). https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb...9-ratings.html
Let's go beat WFU at night, get payback for last year, and make T'giving weekend interesting.
The following P5 teams are rated below Duke in both the SRS and the ESPN PRI:
Arkansas 2-8
Ariz 4-6
Colo 4-6
GT 2-8
Kansas 3-7
MD 3-7
NCSU 4-6
Northwestern 2-8
Rutgers 2-8
Vandy 2-8
WVU 4-6
Well, now that the Duke-WFU KO is 730 PM, perhaps if our team showed up about noon, we *might* be able to put a couple FG on the scoreboard before the Deacs arrived...
[redacted] them and the horses they rode in on.
I very much enjoy your posts, Reilly, but I'm amazed you're sticking with this methodology. Do you really think we have a 32% chance of beating Wake? Hope I'm wrong, but I think that's utterly crazy...the point spreads the past two weeks kind of make the point...we're in a free fall, and stats based on the entire season seem to have little relevance. You had us with a 73% chance of beating Syracuse which sounded absurd, and obviously was
(or is this tongue in cheek)?
I stopped reading here.
These are not my projections ... these are the computer projections, given all the givens. I do not know (or care, really) whether the computers figure the recency stuff -- maybe some do, to some degree.
There are times when I'm positive that a point spread or computer projection is out of whack -- I really wish I lived in a state w/ legalized sports gambling and knew that ND was only a 7-point favorite over Navy -- I knew ND would destroy them given what I saw at the Duke game.
I did not know Syracuse would destroy Duke. We are struggling, to be sure. That said, if the first FG goes through for Duke; if there's not a contested pick 6; what have you ...
WFU has gotten more love this year than it has deserved, in my opinion. We have shown real toughness and fortitude and even efficiency (granted, it feels so long ago). We are capable, believe it or not. For so many years, we were not capable -- no way, no how. That's not this team -- we actually are (or, were). Whether we will or won't this weekend is a different matter (and you believe we won't -- and we might not -- I agree we may just throw in the towell). But given that we've proven we are somewhat capable during this very season, and WFU is no world beater, and football is a funny sport, and it's not like WFU has stockpiled talent like a ND or Bama, well then, a 30% chance at victory is not that outlandish, is it?
Wake favored by 6.5 points: https://www.vegasinsider.com/college...cfm/team/duke
*no disrespect intended by the lowecase u -- apparently post subjects w/ typos cannot be edited by the poster