What's "Slim To None" come out percentage wise?
What's "Slim To None" come out percentage wise?
It IS outlandlish this year. They may not have stockpiled talent, but said talent is better coached. Moreover, we have not scored over 17 pts in 5 weeks. That doesn't bear well against a team that could put up that much in less than a quarter against Duke. Not to mention we have a QB that seemingly loves to throw it to the other team in bunches. QH has regressed considerably--morphed into Chris Dapolito or Adam Smith. It would be quite something if Duke would even lose by 10 or so to Wake.
WFU
+42 Elon
+34 NCSU
+20 @Rice
+06 uNC
+03 Utah St
+03 @BC
+02 FSU
----------------------
-03 Lville
-19 @VT
-49 @Clemson
WFU is 3-1 in games decided by 0-3 points ... and consequently is 7-3 rather than 4-6.
DUKE
+35 @VT
+32 NCAT
+23 @MTSU
+18 GT
------------------------
-03 Pitt
-03 @UNC
-31 ND
-34 @UVa
-39 (N) Alabama
-43 Syr
Duke is 0-2 in games decided by 0-3 points ... and consequently is 4-6 rather than 6-4.
If this game were 6-4 Duke against 4-6 WFU, how confident would you be?
That scenario is not *that* much different than what we have (4-6 Duke v. 7-3 WFU).
Assuming that in this scenario we still lost to Syracuse 49-6 the week before...not very confident. A little more than I am in our actual timeline, but not enough to predict a good chance at a win.
That said, some saying about ifs and buts...I think Bill Parcells has something to say on the matter.
The last two years, the worse overall team (per final SRS) won the game.
2011: #98 duke lost to #69 wake by 1
2012: #68 duke BEAT #90 wake by 7
2013: #31 duke BEAT #68 wake by 7
2014: #40 duke BEAT #100 wake by 20
2015: #57 duke BEAT #89 wake by 6
2016: #77 duke lost to #68 wake by 10
2017: #37 duke BEAT #22 wake by 8
2018: #41 duke lost to #60 wake by 52
2019: #73 duke ___ #40 wake by ____
# = final SRS rank
Of course I understand they are not your projections, that's quite clear. I'll just say that I admire your fortitude in continuing to offer them up in the face of overwhelming evidence of their irrelevance...then again, maybe I'll be proven to be pitifully wrong and Duke will compete this weekend.
On one hand, they are always irrelevant, because they are always wrong if judged by outcomes -- b/c they give each side a chance at winning, when in fact there is just one winner in the end. I find them interesting as I like the patterns and find them generally in the ballpark as they are based on collective experience. I agree that they can be totally out of whack given certain factors (maybe a key injury to a player on a team; or a team that has just fallen off a cliff for some reason w/ no chance of rallying).
The projections do capture the woefulness of our current slide -- when we were 4-2 (and coulda been 5-1) we were in the mid-30s in the SRS, about as high as any Duke team ever under Cut. We are now #73 in the SRS, which is really low. And we'd be an 8-point underdog at WFU per the SRS. interesting that the human-set betting line actually gives Duke a better shot than the SRS computer would (w/ the caveat that the human-set line may be set as it is to induce certain behaviors and so may not be an accurate reflection of what the line-setter actually thinks is the real separation between the two teams -- interesting post I think here on DBR or maybe TDD many years ago re: how the lines are not set simply to split the betting money as is oft reapeated, but sometimes set to induce a lot of action on one side or the other -- in effect, it is the house betting against the majority of the money to reap a bigger payday for itself, but I digress).
We're #73 in the country and 8-point dogs at #40 WFU per the SRS and have only a 30% shot at victory per espn -- that, to me, captures the woe of the recent Duke FB experience and is not overly optimistic or sunny. Rather, it reflects the recent unpleasantness and how far we've fallen. The WFU game should on paper be a pick 'em/50-50 affair most years ... including this year as of a month ago ... but no more. I'm glad we'll be on the road -- I hope there's a bit more energy in the stands that the team can feed off of (even if that energy is in support of WFU). I will speak of the computer projections no more this week and direct energies to tracking down the ACC Network.
Losing streaks of 4+ games, Duke football, 2012-present
2012: Duke lost 5 in a row to finish the season -- by 41, 36, 18, 7, and 14 points (including the painful Cincy bowl loss). Streak ended next year w/ Central (and then I-A win @ Memphis with Connette coming in and throwing).
2015: Duke lost 4 in a row, starting with the Halloween horribleness w/ the U -- by 3, 35 (Carolina), 18, and 8. Streak ended when Duke beat Wake.
2017: Duke lost 6 in a row, w/ close ones -- by 25, 7, 7, 7, 21, and 5 (@Army). Streak ended when Duke beat GT.
2019: Duke has lost 4 in a row (and counting), by 34, 3, 31, and 43. Killer 3-point loss to Carolina.
Wow.
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@chroniclesports
Head coach David Cutcliffe said that offensive lineman Casey Holman practiced today (no-contact) and “looks good.” He was listed atop the team’s depth chart at left tackle
12:50 PM · Nov 19, 2019·Twitter for iPhone
"This is the best of all possible worlds."
Dr. Pangloss - Candide
Well I was going to watch the game, but thanks to this thread I don't have to waste my time. It's obvious from reading that Duke has absolutely positively no chance of winning. Not 30% per ESPN, not if Duke had won their two 3 point games and came in 6-4, not based on previous situations in the past. Nope, no way they can win and therefore why bother watching it. So glad I checked here first. Smh.