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  1. #21
    Quote Originally Posted by Reilly View Post
    The following P5 teams are rated below Duke in both the SRS and the ESPN PRI:


    Arkansas 2-8
    Ariz 4-6
    Colo 4-6
    GT 2-8
    Kansas 3-7
    MD 3-7
    NCSU 4-6
    Northwestern 2-8
    Rutgers 2-8
    Vandy 2-8
    WVU 4-6
    Haha, State. (Sorry PackPride)

  2. #22
    Join Date
    Jan 2014
    Location
    Thomasville, NC
    What's "Slim To None" come out percentage wise?

  3. #23
    Quote Originally Posted by Reilly View Post
    Wake favored by 6.5 points: https://www.vegasinsider.com/college...cfm/team/duke

    *no disrespect intended by the lowecase u -- apparently post subjects w/ typos cannot be edited by the poster

    Actually it was a lower case FU...maybe prophetic?
    Don't waste your time on House of Cards S6!
    -We found out Frank was critical to making anyone else in the show interesting...not a surprise...

  4. #24
    Quote Originally Posted by Reilly View Post
    I stopped reading here.

    These are not my projections ... these are the computer projections, given all the givens. I do not know (or care, really) whether the computers figure the recency stuff -- maybe some do, to some degree.

    There are times when I'm positive that a point spread or computer projection is out of whack -- I really wish I lived in a state w/ legalized sports gambling and knew that ND was only a 7-point favorite over Navy -- I knew ND would destroy them given what I saw at the Duke game.

    I did not know Syracuse would destroy Duke. We are struggling, to be sure. That said, if the first FG goes through for Duke; if there's not a contested pick 6; what have you ...

    WFU has gotten more love this year than it has deserved, in my opinion. We have shown real toughness and fortitude and even efficiency (granted, it feels so long ago). We are capable, believe it or not. For so many years, we were not capable -- no way, no how. That's not this team -- we actually are (or, were). Whether we will or won't this weekend is a different matter (and you believe we won't -- and we might not -- I agree we may just throw in the towell). But given that we've proven we are somewhat capable during this very season, and WFU is no world beater, and football is a funny sport, and it's not like WFU has stockpiled talent like a ND or Bama, well then, a 30% chance at victory is not that outlandish, is it?
    It IS outlandlish this year. They may not have stockpiled talent, but said talent is better coached. Moreover, we have not scored over 17 pts in 5 weeks. That doesn't bear well against a team that could put up that much in less than a quarter against Duke. Not to mention we have a QB that seemingly loves to throw it to the other team in bunches. QH has regressed considerably--morphed into Chris Dapolito or Adam Smith. It would be quite something if Duke would even lose by 10 or so to Wake.

  5. #25
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    6 miles from Heaven, 10 miles from Hell
    Quote Originally Posted by Devilwin View Post
    What's "Slim To None" come out percentage wise?
    “slim left town.”

  6. #26
    WFU

    +42 Elon
    +34 NCSU
    +20 @Rice
    +06 uNC
    +03 Utah St
    +03 @BC
    +02 FSU
    ----------------------
    -03 Lville
    -19 @VT
    -49 @Clemson

    WFU is 3-1 in games decided by 0-3 points ... and consequently is 7-3 rather than 4-6.

    DUKE

    +35 @VT
    +32 NCAT
    +23 @MTSU
    +18 GT
    ------------------------
    -03 Pitt
    -03 @UNC
    -31 ND
    -34 @UVa
    -39 (N) Alabama
    -43 Syr

    Duke is 0-2 in games decided by 0-3 points ... and consequently is 4-6 rather than 6-4.

    If this game were 6-4 Duke against 4-6 WFU, how confident would you be?

    That scenario is not *that* much different than what we have (4-6 Duke v. 7-3 WFU).

  7. #27
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Durham, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by Reilly View Post
    WFU

    +42 Elon
    +34 NCSU
    +20 @Rice
    +06 uNC
    +03 Utah St
    +03 @BC
    +02 FSU
    ----------------------
    -03 Lville
    -19 @VT
    -49 @Clemson

    WFU is 3-1 in games decided by 0-3 points ... and consequently is 7-3 rather than 4-6.

    DUKE

    +35 @VT
    +32 NCAT
    +23 @MTSU
    +18 GT
    ------------------------
    -03 Pitt
    -03 @UNC
    -31 ND
    -34 @UVa
    -39 (N) Alabama
    -43 Syr

    Duke is 0-2 in games decided by 0-3 points ... and consequently is 4-6 rather than 6-4.

    If this game were 6-4 Duke against 4-6 WFU, how confident would you be?

    That scenario is not *that* much different than what we have (4-6 Duke v. 7-3 WFU).
    Assuming that in this scenario we still lost to Syracuse 49-6 the week before...not very confident. A little more than I am in our actual timeline, but not enough to predict a good chance at a win.

    That said, some saying about ifs and buts...I think Bill Parcells has something to say on the matter.

  8. #28
    Quote Originally Posted by Reilly View Post

    WFU is 3-1 in games decided by 0-3 points ... and consequently is 7-3 rather than 4-6.

    Duke is 0-2 in games decided by 0-3 points ... and consequently is 4-6 rather than 6-4.

    If this game were 6-4 Duke against 4-6 WFU, how confident would you be?

    That scenario is not *that* much different than what we have (4-6 Duke v. 7-3 WFU).
    Put away your numbers and watch the teams play. Duke is a terrible team right now. They are depressed. Perhaps the coaches have lost the room, I don't know. Four losses of 30+ is astonishing...two in a row.
    Don't waste your time on House of Cards S6!
    -We found out Frank was critical to making anyone else in the show interesting...not a surprise...

  9. #29
    The last two years, the worse overall team (per final SRS) won the game.

    2011: #98 duke lost to #69 wake by 1

    2012: #68 duke BEAT #90 wake by 7

    2013: #31 duke BEAT #68 wake by 7

    2014: #40 duke BEAT #100 wake by 20

    2015: #57 duke BEAT #89 wake by 6

    2016: #77 duke lost to #68 wake by 10

    2017: #37 duke BEAT #22 wake by 8

    2018: #41 duke lost to #60 wake by 52


    2019: #73 duke ___ #40 wake by ____

    # = final SRS rank

  10. #30
    Join Date
    May 2007
    Location
    Winston-Salem, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by devildeac View Post
    Hmmm, let's see if RJ199 re-opens his pie bet...
    Nope. I'm heeding the advice of my unofficial financial advisor. No pies. Go Duke!

  11. #31
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Raleigh
    Quote Originally Posted by richardjackson199 View Post
    Nope. I'm heeding the advice of my unofficial financial advisor. No pies. Go Duke!
    I guess that really ought to be your pie-nancial advisor .
    [redacted] them and the horses they rode in on.

  12. #32
    Quote Originally Posted by devildeac View Post
    ... your pie-nancial advisor ...
    Hopefully a moderator will shepherd this discussion back to the ballgame ...

  13. #33
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Vermont
    Quote Originally Posted by Reilly View Post
    I stopped reading here.

    These are not my projections ... these are the computer projections, given all the givens. I do not know (or care, really) whether the computers figure the recency stuff -- maybe some do, to some degree.

    There are times when I'm positive that a point spread or computer projection is out of whack -- I really wish I lived in a state w/ legalized sports gambling and knew that ND was only a 7-point favorite over Navy -- I knew ND would destroy them given what I saw at the Duke game.

    I did not know Syracuse would destroy Duke. We are struggling, to be sure. That said, if the first FG goes through for Duke; if there's not a contested pick 6; what have you ...

    WFU has gotten more love this year than it has deserved, in my opinion. We have shown real toughness and fortitude and even efficiency (granted, it feels so long ago). We are capable, believe it or not. For so many years, we were not capable -- no way, no how. That's not this team -- we actually are (or, were). Whether we will or won't this weekend is a different matter (and you believe we won't -- and we might not -- I agree we may just throw in the towell). But given that we've proven we are somewhat capable during this very season, and WFU is no world beater, and football is a funny sport, and it's not like WFU has stockpiled talent like a ND or Bama, well then, a 30% chance at victory is not that outlandish, is it?
    Of course I understand they are not your projections, that's quite clear. I'll just say that I admire your fortitude in continuing to offer them up in the face of overwhelming evidence of their irrelevance...then again, maybe I'll be proven to be pitifully wrong and Duke will compete this weekend.

  14. #34
    Quote Originally Posted by budwom View Post
    ... in the face of overwhelming evidence of their irrelevance ...
    On one hand, they are always irrelevant, because they are always wrong if judged by outcomes -- b/c they give each side a chance at winning, when in fact there is just one winner in the end. I find them interesting as I like the patterns and find them generally in the ballpark as they are based on collective experience. I agree that they can be totally out of whack given certain factors (maybe a key injury to a player on a team; or a team that has just fallen off a cliff for some reason w/ no chance of rallying).

    The projections do capture the woefulness of our current slide -- when we were 4-2 (and coulda been 5-1) we were in the mid-30s in the SRS, about as high as any Duke team ever under Cut. We are now #73 in the SRS, which is really low. And we'd be an 8-point underdog at WFU per the SRS. interesting that the human-set betting line actually gives Duke a better shot than the SRS computer would (w/ the caveat that the human-set line may be set as it is to induce certain behaviors and so may not be an accurate reflection of what the line-setter actually thinks is the real separation between the two teams -- interesting post I think here on DBR or maybe TDD many years ago re: how the lines are not set simply to split the betting money as is oft reapeated, but sometimes set to induce a lot of action on one side or the other -- in effect, it is the house betting against the majority of the money to reap a bigger payday for itself, but I digress).

    We're #73 in the country and 8-point dogs at #40 WFU per the SRS and have only a 30% shot at victory per espn -- that, to me, captures the woe of the recent Duke FB experience and is not overly optimistic or sunny. Rather, it reflects the recent unpleasantness and how far we've fallen. The WFU game should on paper be a pick 'em/50-50 affair most years ... including this year as of a month ago ... but no more. I'm glad we'll be on the road -- I hope there's a bit more energy in the stands that the team can feed off of (even if that energy is in support of WFU). I will speak of the computer projections no more this week and direct energies to tracking down the ACC Network.

  15. #35

    a trip down misery lane

    Losing streaks of 4+ games, Duke football, 2012-present

    2012: Duke lost 5 in a row to finish the season -- by 41, 36, 18, 7, and 14 points (including the painful Cincy bowl loss). Streak ended next year w/ Central (and then I-A win @ Memphis with Connette coming in and throwing).

    2015: Duke lost 4 in a row, starting with the Halloween horribleness w/ the U -- by 3, 35 (Carolina), 18, and 8. Streak ended when Duke beat Wake.

    2017: Duke lost 6 in a row, w/ close ones -- by 25, 7, 7, 7, 21, and 5 (@Army). Streak ended when Duke beat GT.

    2019: Duke has lost 4 in a row (and counting), by 34, 3, 31, and 43. Killer 3-point loss to Carolina.

  16. #36
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Mechanicsburg, PA
    Quote Originally Posted by HereBeforeCoachK View Post
    Put away your numbers and watch the teams play. Duke is a terrible team right now. They are depressed. Perhaps the coaches have lost the room, I don't know. Four losses of 30+ is astonishing...two in a row.
    Additionally, Duke just made Syracuse look better than Alabama against us. Think about that...

  17. #37
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Raleigh, NC
    Wow.




    Chronicle Sports

    @chroniclesports


    Head coach David Cutcliffe said that offensive lineman Casey Holman practiced today (no-contact) and “looks good.” He was listed atop the team’s depth chart at left tackle
    12:50 PM · Nov 19, 2019·Twitter for iPhone
    "This is the best of all possible worlds."
    Dr. Pangloss - Candide

  18. #38
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Raleigh
    Quote Originally Posted by chrishoke View Post
    Wow.




    Chronicle Sports

    @chroniclesports


    Head coach David Cutcliffe said that offensive lineman Casey Holman practiced today (no-contact) and “looks good.” He was listed atop the team’s depth chart at left tackle
    12:50 PM · Nov 19, 2019·Twitter for iPhone
    That's great news/amazing. Nice find.
    [redacted] them and the horses they rode in on.

  19. #39
    Well I was going to watch the game, but thanks to this thread I don't have to waste my time. It's obvious from reading that Duke has absolutely positively no chance of winning. Not 30% per ESPN, not if Duke had won their two 3 point games and came in 6-4, not based on previous situations in the past. Nope, no way they can win and therefore why bother watching it. So glad I checked here first. Smh.

  20. #40
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Undisclosed
    Quote Originally Posted by Scorp4me View Post
    Well I was going to watch the game, but thanks to this thread I don't have to waste my time. It's obvious from reading that Duke has absolutely positively no chance of winning. Not 30% per ESPN, not if Duke had won their two 3 point games and came in 6-4, not based on previous situations in the past. Nope, no way they can win and therefore why bother watching it. So glad I checked here first. Smh.
    Since it’s on ACCN, the choice of watching or not was made for me and those in my area.
    "We're only tourists in this life
    Only tourists but the view is nice"

    -- David Byrne

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