MBB 2019-20 Starters

[JasonEvans]

From the MOTM thread --

Someone's gotta come off the bench...

I don't know what the record is for different starting lineups under K but I won't be at all surprised if we set it this season.

3 games in and we have had 3 different starting lineups. Here is who has started:

Tre - 3
Carey - 3
Cassius - 3
Hurt - 2
AOC - 2
White - 1
JGold - 1

But more significantly, as an indication of how many potential starters we have, here is the minute distribution thus far (skewed a bit by Tre missing much of game #3 due to being concussion cautious):

Tre - 26.3 mpg
Cassius - 26.3
AOC - 22.3
Hurt - 22.3
Carey - 20.0
Moore - 17.3
White - 17.0
Javin - 15.7
JGold - 15.3
Baker - 10.0

Note: JRob is averaging 8.5mpg but has only played in 2 games and I am unsure if he will see time in more competitive contests.

I don't have much more to say beyond looking at these numbers, but I marvel at them a bit. This is just not what we are at all used to seeing from Duke. If this was FSU then this kind of minute distribution would not be surprising, but this is Duke.

-Jason "much like 2 years ago when K shocked us by going zone and it worked really well for that team, K continually shows he is willing to adapt his game plan to fit our personnel. That is a lot of what makes him the GOAT" Evans

[flyingdutchdevil]

From the MOTM thread --

I don't know what the record is for different starting lineups under K but I won't be at all surprised if we set it this season.

3 games in and we have had 3 different starting lineups. Here is who has started:

Tre - 3
Carey - 3
Cassius - 3
Hurt - 2
AOC - 2
White - 1
JGold - 1

But more significantly, as an indication of how many potential starters we have, here is the minute distribution thus far (skewed a bit by Tre missing much of game #3 due to being concussion cautious):

Tre - 26.3 mpg
Cassius - 26.3
AOC - 22.3
Hurt - 22.3
Carey - 20.0
Moore - 17.3
White - 17.0
Javin - 15.7
JGold - 15.3
Baker - 10.0

Note: JRob is averaging 8.5mpg but has only played in 2 games and I am unsure if he will see time in more competitive contests.

I don't have much more to say beyond looking at these numbers, but I marvel at them a bit. This is just not what we are at all used to seeing from Duke. If this was FSU then this kind of minute distribution would not be surprising, but this is Duke.

-Jason "much like 2 years ago when K shocked us by going zone and it worked really well for that team, K continually shows he is willing to adapt his game plan to fit our personnel. That is a lot of what makes him the GOAT" Evans

I want to believe yesterday's starting line-up has to teach Hurt a lesson moreso than play the best 5. Hurt first that team well: 3pt shooter, spread the floor, solid defense, good IQ. White is a good role player, but this team's potential is limited if he's playing starter minutes (and I get the whole 'it doesn't matter if you start, it matters if you finish' mantra and cliches like that).

I fully expect Hurt to start the vast majority of games moving forward. The game will slow down for him.

[scottdude8]

FWIW, Baker also didn't play in the game against Kansas, like JRob. For whatever reason the official scorekeeper during the Kansas game made multiple errors (The Chronicle wrote a pretty good tongue in cheek piece about it).

I imagine we could see two more starting lineup combos if Moore continues playing well and earns a spot (relegating either AOC or Stanley to the bench). I imagine Javin will also start at some point to send a message to either of our frontcourt guys, so there's another lineup or two. So yes, we're more likely than not to see some more different starting lineup combos going forward.

That said, I think what's going to be more important to the success of this team, especially given the level MPG trend we've seen, is who finishes the game, not who starts it. I think that might become more stable as the season moves on, even if the starting lineups oscillate. Once ACC season starts I'd love to see an analysis of who is playing the most minutes during the last 10 minutes of each competitive game.

Regardless, Coach K is certainly showing all of the nay-sayers who said there'd be no way we'd have more than a 7 man rotation, at least so far.

[Bob Green]

I’m going to comment from a different perspective - who will be the 6th Man? I like the first player off the bench to be a scorer, someone who comes in and gives the offense a boost.

Matthew Hurt and Alex O’Connell stand out to me as the leading contenders. Wendell Moore could certainly work his way into the conversation.

A 6th Man who understands his role and understands he really is a starter everywhere except the box score is an invaluable asset.

[Edouble]

I’m going to comment from a different perspective - who will be the 6th Man? I like the first player off the bench to be a scorer, someone who comes in and gives the offense a boost.

Matthew Hurt and Alex O’Connell stand out to me as the leading contenders. Wendell Moore could certainly work his way into the conversation.

A 6th Man who understands his role and understands he really is a starter everywhere except the box score is an invaluable asset.

Moore seems to have that same quality that Dunleavy or Cwell had, in that he can come in for multiple positions, depending on need. I do like Moore as the 6th man.

[Nrrrrvous]

I’m going to comment from a different perspective - who will be the 6th Man? I like the first player off the bench to be a scorer, someone who comes in and gives the offense a boost.

Matthew Hurt and Alex O’Connell stand out to me as the leading contenders. Wendell Moore could certainly work his way into the conversation.

A 6th Man who understands his role and understands he really is a starter everywhere except the box score is an invaluable asset.

IMO (where Sage stole the H), if I'm reading K correctly, he doesn't want "a" 6th man. He wants the starting 5 to be going so hard on D that they are out of breath by the first TV timeout. Then he comes in with Jordan, Jack, Javin and Wendell (or whoever) to go another 4 minutes as hard as they possibly can. The only person, I'm guessing, he wouldn't pull that quick would be Tre?

I mean, think about what a nightmare that could be for the opposing team. You finally catch a break seeing Cassius leave the game and here comes Wendell to hound you for another 4 minutes!

I'm a little leery about our O this year but I'm just as excited about how menacing our D could be...

[budwom]

It's nice if your sixth man is a guy who can come in and hit some shots...not sure that's Wendell's forte at the moment, but he'll play anyway, of course.
Would be nice if Baker developed into a reliable outside shooter who could provide some instant offense.

[Troublemaker]

-Jason "much like 2 years ago when K shocked us by going zone and it worked really well for that team, K continually shows he is willing to adapt his game plan to fit our personnel. That is a lot of what makes him the GOAT" Evans

It does feel like something unprecedented is happening, and while I'm too lazy to check myself (and would really only check if I could query some database), I am wondering just *how* unprecedented this season's rotation (so far) is in the Coach K era. For example, were the bench minutes against Kansas the most ever for Coach K in a competitive game (maybe define that as final margin < 8 or so)? Through 3 games in a season, has Coach K ever played more bench minutes?

There are probably better or more precise questions than what I've asked above, but you get the idea.

[CDu]

It does feel like something unprecedented is happening, and while I'm too lazy to check myself (and would really only check if I could query some database), I am wondering just *how* unprecedented this season's rotation (so far) is in the Coach K era. For example, were the bench minutes against Kansas the most ever for Coach K in a competitive game (maybe define that as final margin < 8 or so)? Through 3 games in a season, has Coach K ever played more bench minutes?

There are probably better or more precise questions than what I've asked above, but you get the idea.

Yeah, I am hesitant to make any strong statements yet considering we have really just had one competitive game thus far. Yes, we played fully 9 deep that game. Will that continue? That remains to be seen.

I am, however, quite comfortable saying we will play at least 8 deep. The frontcourt sort of mandates a 4-man rotation, and there will be at least one wing off the bench. So I guess it comes down to whether both of O’Connell and Goldwire stay in the rotation or if one of them gets squeezed out. I don’t think that Baker will be in it, and I am quite sure Robinson won’t (both barring injuries of course).

[lotusland]

I want to believe yesterday's starting line-up has to teach Hurt a lesson moreso than play the best 5. Hurt first that team well: 3pt shooter, spread the floor, solid defense, good IQ. White is a good role player, but this team's potential is limited if he's playing starter minutes (and I get the whole 'it doesn't matter if you start, it matters if you finish' mantra and cliches like that).

I fully expect Hurt to start the vast majority of games moving forward. The game will slow down for him.

Vernon and Hurt are both talented enough to start especially on offense. Jav and Jack are better defenders but more limited scorers. All 4 guys are going to play but we may not see Carey and Hurt playing together much. Idk if it’s a matter of who the best 5 are this year as much as the best lineups. If that holds true then Hurt will play more when Carey Struggles or gets in foul trouble and vice versa.

[camion]

A couple of semi-related thoughts:

Should we also have a "Finishers" thread or can that be included here?

I expect that we won't be a good shooting team this year precisely because we are expending so much effort on defense. Good shooting depends on precision and effort is the enemy of precision. I will quickly note that scoring and shooting are not the same thing. Good defense can lead to more scoring due to easier shots.

[weezie]

...we may not see Carey and Hurt playing together much...

With the greatest respect for my much admired friend lotus, I disagree. I think K is watching the chemistry develop. When crunch time looms it'll be all hands on deck and find these two players inside.

I was struck by the question Bilas posed during his interview with K, something about 'What's the one thing you have to instill in each team every year?'

And the answer was, paraphrasing, 'Believe me right away' Not 'Believe IN me' but 'Believe Me' which then translates into believe in each other the way he trusts them.

Year after year, this is what we've all seen.

[sagegrouse]

Different year: We have five returning players who contributed last year and have probably improved. In addition to Tre,

• Jack White will get his minutes -- he has an unmatched nose for the ball both on defense and in rebounding.
• Javin has hops and also runs very well for a big man. Surely there is no question that he's a finisher around the basket.
• Alex O'Connell appears to have improved more than any returning player -- very quick and with a nice shooting touch. His minutes may decrease, but it looks to me like he will play.
• Jordan Goldwire has the trust of Coach K for his defense and point guard abilities. Yeah, maybe if Wendell Moore comes along his minutes, but he has valuable attributes -- not the least, giving Tre some rest.

The freshmen also deserve to play and, in a certain sense, must play.

• Vernon Carey is our muscle and has shooting touch. I expect improvement as he adjusts to playing other big players, but he is one of only two "big men" on the roster.
• Cassius Stanley, to me, likes like an NBA player in his moves, touch and athleticism.
• Matthew Hurt. You want scoring? He can light it up. I think he has good basketball skills.
• Wendell Moore is coming along more slowly than the other freshmen but has a handle and the strength and athleticism to make him an unusual talent for a freshman. He will be given lots of opportunities to play, maybe cutting into AOC and Jordan minutes.

Leading us to Joey Baker. Boy, am I pulling for this kid. He is obviously not as far along as Matthew Hurt, but I am hoping he can contribute shooting to the team. School's still out on this. K will also look for minutes for Justin Robinson -- if he starts nailing threes they will happen

I am pretty certain we will get meaningful minutes from the first nine players listed. That makes nine. The more we press and play intense defense, of course, the more players we will need to use as we wear down the opponents.

[CajunDevil]

I see this year's team as follows. Of course, there will be changes, injuries, freshmen walls, and/or the game just 'clicking' for some (Hurt, Moore):

Locks to start/finish:

• Tre
• Cassius - unless he hits a wall
• Carey - unless he hits a wall

Most likely to start and finish:

• AOC - shooting prowess and quick-twitch puts him in front of Moore imo
• Jack - Jack's D, rebounding, shot-blocking is what this five needs at this point

First off the bench: (all three at the same time at beginning of the game, then spot subs as game goes on)

• Moore - can sub for multiple positions (someone mentioned CWell comparison which I think is good... prob a more fluid, junior version of CWell)
• Hurt - excellent shooter, very good scorer and basketball IQ - could (probably will) start/finish, exchanging roles with Jack as the season goes on)
• Javin - energy, defense/rebounding, occasional bucket

Spot-subs:

• Goldwire - for Tre (or with Tre to press)
• Baker - If we need shooting

That's 10 guys with meaningful time... two to three more than K usually plays. Fingers crossed this 'rotation' continues.

[JasonEvans]

Should we also have a "Finishers" thread or can that be included here?

I think finishers makes sense in this thread too, for sure.

My initial comment on that topic is that with a deep team we may see K finishing close games based on who has been playing well earlier in the game. Other than Tre, clearly our MVP, everyone else on the team has a counterpart who could -- on any given day -- be outplaying him. To me, that makes is very hard to say who the finishers will be.

[Neals384]

FWIW, Baker also didn't play in the game against Kansas, like JRob. For whatever reason the official scorekeeper during the Kansas game made multiple errors (The Chronicle wrote a pretty good tongue in cheek piece about it).

I imagine we could see two more starting lineup combos if Moore continues playing well and earns a spot (relegating either AOC or Stanley to the bench). I imagine Javin will also start at some point to send a message to either of our frontcourt guys, so there's another lineup or two. So yes, we're more likely than not to see some more different starting lineup combos going forward.

That said, I think what's going to be more important to the success of this team, especially given the level MPG trend we've seen, is who finishes the game, not who starts it. I think that might become more stable as the season moves on, even if the starting lineups oscillate. Once ACC season starts I'd love to see an analysis of who is playing the most minutes during the last 10 minutes of each competitive game.

Regardless, Coach K is certainly showing all of the nay-sayers who said there'd be no way we'd have more than a 7 man rotation, at least so far.

I smell a pie in my future if someone thinks Moore will start in place of Stanley.

[AGDukesky]

I think finishers makes sense in this thread too, for sure.

My initial comment on that topic is that with a deep team we may see K finishing close games based on who has been playing well earlier in the game. Other than Tre, clearly our MVP, everyone else on the team has a counterpart who could -- on any given day -- be outplaying him. To me, that makes is very hard to say who the finishers will be.

I suggest we use the term “Closers” and identify players by the number of cups of coffee they earn...

[devildeac]

I suggest we use the term “Closers” and identify players by the number of cups of coffee they earn...

Or:

beer-1381127_469be_sm.jpeg

[kAzE]

I kind of liked what Coach K tried to do last game, starting Jack White. The problem with our big men is that none of them are two way players. Carey and Hurt are strong offensively, but are below average on defense. White and DeLaurier are both excellent on defense, but are liabilities on offense, although Jack has been hitting some open threes thus far. Therefore, by playing White with Carey in the starting 5 (but still playing White only 18 minutes, compared to Hurt's 22), it allows the team to have one offensive big and 1 defensive big on the floor more often, which makes more sense than going all offense or all defense.

And at this point, I am in on Jack getting more minutes than Javin. Javin is a great option to defending opposing bigs because of his quickness and size, but Jack has the versatility to basically switch any defensive matchup, with his ability to defend on the perimeter. So far, his shot looks okay, so while he's basically limited to being a spot up shooter on offense, he is spacing the floor with his shooting, which is ideal when you have a dominant post scorer like Carey.

[House P]

It does feel like something unprecedented is happening, and while I'm too lazy to check myself (and would really only check if I could query some database), I am wondering just *how* unprecedented this season's rotation (so far) is in the Coach K era. For example, were the bench minutes against Kansas the most ever for Coach K in a competitive game (maybe define that as final margin < 8 or so)? Through 3 games in a season, has Coach K ever played more bench minutes?

There are probably better or more precise questions than what I've asked above, but you get the idea.

############

WARNING: This following post contains lots of "minutes minutiae" in an attempt to provide historical context regarding Duke's depth so far this season. If you hate this type of discussion, it is probably best to skip this post.

############

I have a spreadsheet with game-by-game minutes played. Unfortunately, it doesn't include starters vs bench players so I can't answer you questions directly. Even if I could, I suspect that there would be a handful of games where the official bench minutes were unusually high because a starter got injured early in the game or Coach K chose to have one or more of his top players come off the bench for one reason (Senior night) or another (send a "message").

One example is the famous "Patrick Davidson game" vs Wake in 2005 where Coach K decided to shake things up by starting Patrick Davidson, Patrick Johnson, and Reggie Love. In that game, the "bench" (Daniel Ewing, Demarcus Nelson, Sean Dockery, Shavlik Randolph, and Lee Melchioni) combined for 100 minutes. Another example would be last season's Wake game where Duke got 69 bench minutes (the same as this year's KU game), not necessarily because Coach K had a particularly deep rotation, but because Vrank started and only played 3 minutes.

That being said, I can attempt to address the spirit of your questions based, not on "starters vs bench", but based on the "top 5" vs "non-top 5" players in a particular game. For this approach, I define the "top 5" as the five players who played the most minutes in a particular game (regardless of whether they started) and the "non-top 5" as everyone else.

The short answer, is that Duke's depth so far this year appears to be unusual, if not necessarily unprecedented.

were the bench minutes against Kansas the most ever for Coach K in a competitive game (maybe define that as final margin < 8 or so)?

Against KU, Duke got 58 minutes from the "non-top 5". As far as I can tell, this is the 20th most minutes that "non-top 5" guys have played in the 465 games decided by 8 points or less since Coach K arrived. The "close" game with the most minutes going to players outside the top 5 was a 2008 ACC tournament game vs Clemson, where the "non-top 5" combined for 74 minutes.

Since Coach K arrived, Duke's "non-top 5" have averaged 38.6 min in games decided by 8 points or less.

Through 3 games in a season, has Coach K ever played more bench minutes?

So far this season, "non-top 5" players have combined for 226 total minutes (75.3 per game). This ties the 2008-09 team for the 4th most of any season through 3 games (the 2010-11 team averaged 76.7 mpg, the 2007-08 team averaged 79.7 mpg, and the 1987-88 team averaged 80.3 mpg to players outside the top 5). However, this may be a bit misleading because the none of the teams that rank ahead of this year's Duke team had any of their early games decided by fewer than 22 points.