I think it is safe to say that the power index does not take into account trajectory. Looking at season long stats it makes sense; given Duke's performance the last month or so, I think it's seriously askew.
Duke has a 73% chance to win the game and get to 5-5, per the espn power ranking index. Duke is the #57 team in the land and Syracuse #80, per the same source.
http://www.espn.com/college-football...=150&year=2019
I think it is safe to say that the power index does not take into account trajectory. Looking at season long stats it makes sense; given Duke's performance the last month or so, I think it's seriously askew.
Syracuse (3-0)
1938 A W 21-0
1939 H W 33-6
2014 A W 27-10
https://s3.amazonaws.com/goduke.com/...edia_Guide.pdf
I will be in my normal spot in Section 19 cheering for an offensive transformation and victory. This is a must win game.
Early odds in Vegas have Duke a 10.5 points favorite. That’s high in my opinion.
Bob Green
Duke
+35 @VT
+32 NCAT
+23 @MTSU
+18 GT
------------------------
-03 Pitt
-03 @UNC
-31 ND
-34 @UVa
-39 (N)Bama
Duke: 0-3 and outscored 106-38 in last three games
Syracuse
+38 Holy Cross
+24 @Liberty
+19 WesternMich
-----------------------
-06 @NCSU
-07 Pitt
-18 @FSU
-31 BC
-35 Clemson
-43 @Maryland
Syracuse: 0-3 and outscored 120-64 in last three games
SRS: Duke is #53 and Syracuse is #95 and Duke is about 7 points better on neutral field or 10 accounting for 3-point home field advantage -- https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb...9-ratings.html
VegasInsider: Duke 10.5 point favorite https://www.vegasinsider.com/college...cfm/team/duke
Stats rankings (Conference Games Only) for comparison:
Scoring Offense: Duke 8/14 (29.4 ppg); Syracuse 13/14 (16 ppg)
Scoring Defense: Duke 6/14 (26.8 ppg); Syracuse 12/14 (35.4 ppg)
Glancing through all the categories, Syracuse is ranked higher than Duke in Passing Offense with Duke higher in everything else.
Bob Green
We're 4-5.
We could finish the regular season:
7-5
6-6
5-7
4-8
And overall, then, presumably
8-5
7-6
6-7
5-7
5-8
4-8
8-5 and 7-6 would be good outcomes, meaning we won 4 in a row to end the year (8-5) or if it is 7-6, we went 3-0 down stretch and lost bowl or went 2-1 down stretch and won bowl.
6-7 I could live with: win 2/3 down stretch to go bowling, but then lose bowl.
5-8 (going 1-2 down stretch; pity bowl invite that we lose) would be yuck. Think I'd rather have the 5-7 no bowl scenario rather than the 5-8 pity bowl lose scenario.
4-8 would be very yuck.
Beat Syracuse, beat WFU, and take it from there ...
Over / under on attendance?
Cuse will probably bring 12-15 fans...and NOT 12-15K.
I think I know one of them, so they only have to gather up another dozen or so.
If the preliminary forecast holds, it's going to be another FROSTY affair...High of 49 is now the forecast, and when the sun goes down, the temp will plummet...most people were very under dressed for the ND game, many left early.
We'll probably get an actual (not announced) crowd in the 18k range or so...
I have to say, I was surprised at the large number of Syracuse fans at the ACC tournament in Charlotte last March. And I’m not talking about the boosters they brought with them, sitting together in their section. I’m talking about many fans dispersed throughout the arena, which led me to believe they must have been primarily locals who had scalped tickets.
I know Syracuse is a large school with a large alumni base. But are there that many in N.C.? That is a different question, of course, than how many will turn out to support their football team.
I guess that's true, though on frosty days they're sitting inside the Carrier Dome wearing shorts and sweat shirts, so I suspect many of them are out of practice.
Key factor, missed by many (including at the ND game) is that a coat that keeps you warm when you're walking around doing stuff is NOT a coat that will keep you warm while you sit still for 3.5 hours.
I brought my level II Prince Harry in the Arctic coat to the ND game, and by the end of the half, I felt a need to walk around a bit.
I was adequately dressed Saturday night but still left at end of 3rd quarter due to disgust. I’ll be adequately dressed* this coming Saturday and I plan to stay to the end.
* long johns, cargo pants, wool socks, t shirt, sweat shirt, overcoat, gloves, wool cap.
Bob Green
Really? Because I googled before I posted, and it said in 2017 total enrollment was 22,484 (which included grad and law schools) I knew it was private. But that seems pretty big to me.
Heck, maybe my perspective is off - after all, I went to the largest school of anyone in my immediate family! (With a spouse and one child who went to Wake Forest, and another child who went to W&L, they all feel Duke is big!)
Undergrad enrollment is about 15k, all the other stuff gets you up to 22k.
by the way, Duke's profile has changed over the years..I remember long ago when Duke had about 6k undergrads, 3-4k graduate students...today it's at 7k undergrad, 9k grad students, total of 16k. Getting bigger.
Grad students are generally* not as enthusiastic about school sports though (or tend to gravitate towards their undergrad team).
*With the caveat that there are several notable grad student fans on this board, or course