Other People's NCAA Hoops - 2019-2020

[DavidBenAkiva]

Big news out of Lexington. Freshman forward Khalil Whitney is leaving the Wildcats. Whitney came into college as a top 10 prospect and immediately started for the Wildcats. A lot of people pegged him as a lottery pick in the NBA Draft before his college career began. He then proceeded to look like he had no idea what he was doing on a basketball court. He hasn't shown any shooting ability from the free throw line or behind the arc. He hasn't been much of a rebounder even though he is a physically gifted wing/forward. He's been passed over in the lineup by other freshmen, including Keon Brooks, Jr. and Johnny Juzang. Neither of those two were 5-star prospects and project as multi-year guys at Kentucky.
Yesterday, Kentucky had two commits, forwards BJ Boston and Terrence Clarke, both named to the McDonald's All-American game and they both look like they will start from Day 1 next season. The writing was on the wall that Whitney wasn't going to get much time the rest of this season and he'd be at the end of the bench to start next season. Tough spot for the kid.

Going forward, that leaves Calipari with a relatively thin team of just 8 scholarship players. The backcourt has been the best part of the team and Cal will use all three of Immanuel Quickley, Ashton Hagans, and Tyrese Maxey. Quickley can really shoot the ball and has played quite well off the ball as a scoring guard in the 2015 Quinn Cook role. Hagans is still a great defender and has progressed as a lead PG, dishing out a ton of assists. But he's not figured out how to score and is barely a better shooter than he was last year. He's hitting his free throws this year, though, so a team might take a flier on him in the 2nd round in hopes that his 3-point shooting comes around in time a la De'Aron Fox. Maxey is the most dynamic of scorers on the team, but he's been shooting it below 30% from 3 on the season overall and is a tweener in the NBA. He projects as a Lou Williams type in the NBA as a guy that can get hot off the bench. Is that a lottery pick selection, though? All 3 will likely test the NBA draft process and I wouldn't be surprised to see at least 2 if not all 3 leave Kentucky at the end of the year.

Up front, Nick Richards has honestly developed into a reliable and quite good college center. He's tall and long and has been about the most consistent player on the Kentucky roster. EJ Montgomery and grad transfer Nate Sestina have been ok in complementary roles. Montgomery has gotten the most starts this year while Sestina is starting to get more playing time as his 3-point shot is starting to fall. I suspect that Richards will finally go pro after his junior year this year. He'll probably be one of those guys that plays in the NBA for 15 years and has a good game every now and then, like Ian Mahinmi. Sestina is a grad transfer and will be gone after this season. I suspect that Montgomery returns and will start the year at the center position. Maybe he'll develop a shot in time, something he supposedly had in high school.

So that means UK will bring in the #1 class in the country next year but will lose one grad transfer, probably 2 or maybe even all 3 of their guards, and most likely their starting center. I expect their roster will look something like this:

PG: Devin Askew, Immanuel Quickley
SG: BJ Boston, Johnny Juzang, Dontaie Allen (RS-FR after suffering an injury late in high school)
SF: Terrence Clarke, Keion Brooks Cam'Ron Fletcher
PF: Isaiah Jackson, Lance Ware
C: EJ Montgomery

Boston can really shoot the ball, but Clarke was not known as a shooter in high school and more of an athlete. Jackson and Montgomery are not shooters. That puts a lot of pressure on Askew to both stretch the floor and run the offense. It's kind of a typical Kentucky team of late. There's a lot of talent there, but there are questions all over the place. Do the pieces fit? Will all those wings be happy sharing minutes? Can the frontcourt be trusted?

I suspect that the team will be ranked in the top 5 to start the season but might skid in the teens throughout the year unless they add Jonathan Kuminga or a really good grad transfer.

[JasonEvans]

EJ Montgomery has to be one of the most disappointing top 10 (according to RSCI) recruits of Cal's Kentucky tenure. I mean 7ppg and 5.5rpg from a soph is ok, but not from a kid that most had pegged as a OAD stud. I wonder how his career would have gone differently if he had joined the Tre/Zion/RJ/Cam group text and come to Duke.

-Jason "on a per minute basis, Montgomery's stats and metrics are pretty measurably worse than Javin DeLaurier" Evans

[tommy]

Glad to hear someone enjoys my Michigan tangents!

You're actually echoing a lot of thoughts I had when I was chatting with my Dad (a Michigan alum and season ticket holder... if you watch Michigan games you've 100% seen him on TV as his seats are center court two rows behind the students, haha). My frustration after Penn State was less that we lost, but more how we looked losing, and specifically the fact that it seems like we've had the same offensive problems game after game without adjustment. If a player is only going to be out a couple games I understand a coach not wanting to change his system too much and ruin continuity, but Livers has now been our long enough that adjustments should've been made.

I agree that Teske should be the focal point of this offense, but I think that there may have been a conscious effort to throttle down his usage a bit. Why? Well, last year he was statistically one of the best defensive big men not just in the B1G, but in the country. This season he's been historically bad during Big Ten play, and the only logical explanation is fatigue: now that he's the first or second offensive option, and not the fifth, he's exerting a lot of energy on the offensive end and can't go full bore on defense. The fact that Colin Castleton hasn't quite developed enough to give him a real 10 minutes on the bench has meant we've had to go with Austin Davis, who while improved is so limited that he can't play more than 5 minutes or so and give Michigan a real chance to win. So while feeding Teske may be an answer on offense, I'm not sure it's an answer for Michigan to win more games.

I think the more likely scenario is using some different lineups, which we have the personnel to do. The "small-ball" lineup worked quite well in the win against Purdue, but we haven't gone back to it for more than a couple minutes a time since. I'd love to see more of a "four around 1" offense with DeJulius in instead of Johns. I love Johns, but he's a complimentary player, especially offensively, while DeJulius has shown an ability to generate his own shot. There are also benefits to having Zavier try to get open off the ball occasionally.

I'd also love to see a "true" small ball lineup with Johns at the 5: I think this is our best option to get Teske some real rest. That lineup would need some creativity on defense to help Johns in the post, but having Johns man the high-post offensively and do some pick and rolls has potential.

Regarding Wagner specifically, I'm not so down on him. I just think it's clear he's adjusting to the style of American basketball, including the physicality. Remember, when Mo came to Ann Arbor he had similar hype, but similar struggles in his freshman year before blossoming. I think the expectations were just a tad high for Franz as a freshman, although I think he has to be a key cog in this team for it to be a second weekend caliber team in March. I also like DeJulius, but he and Wagner fill very different roles. I'm not sure he and Franz are quite interchangeable, but I'd like to see him seeing more of the floor as well. Early in the season he was playing great as a "microwave" sixth man, but Howard seems to have lost the confidence in him. Keep the starting lineup as is, but get DeJulius in 4-5 minutes in after he's seen the flow of the game, in my opinion.

Honestly, at this point I'd just like to see Howard try SOMETHING new to fix the offensive issues if Livers is going to be out any longer. The time has long past to keep trying the same ideas over and over. All this may be for moot if Livers is close to returning, which it sounds like it is, but I want to see Coach Howard earn his job with some X's and O's.

Good post. Teske is averaging the same number of minutes (28) as last year, and shooting a higher percentage than he did last year (52% this season) on more shots. To me, that should mean feed him the ball more, not less, especially when your shooters are struggling. You're quite correct that opposing big men have been torching the Wolverines this year -- and Howard has not changed much in terms of giving Teske some help -- but I think one good way to help would be to get those big guys off the floor. Go at them at the other end with Teske. Make them play defense. Tire them out. Get them in foul trouble. Turn the tables on what's been happening.

I do agree with you that the lack of big man help is hurting. I never have liked Castleton. He's just too skinny and weak. I won't be surprised to see Dickinson challenge him for big minutes next year. And now it seems like the staff is realizing that too; hence Davis getting more minutes.

Totally agree with you that I'd like to see Juwan make some X and O adjustments for this team, as what he's been doing is not working. But isnt that also what Martelli is there for? Shouldn't he be making some of these suggestions to the young coach before he, Martelli, gets an offer to be a Head Coach again somewhere this off season, which I bet he will?

And as for Wagner, the jury is very much out on him. He may turn out to be a player, but right now he's not contributing much. If his shot isn't falling, and it hasn't been, what else does he bring? Disappointing and I know the Michigan faithful feel that way too.

[tommy]

Big news out of Lexington. Freshman forward Khalil Whitney is leaving the Wildcats. Whitney came into college as a top 10 prospect and immediately started for the Wildcats. A lot of people pegged him as a lottery pick in the NBA Draft before his college career began. He then proceeded to look like he had no idea what he was doing on a basketball court. He hasn't shown any shooting ability from the free throw line or behind the arc. He hasn't been much of a rebounder even though he is a physically gifted wing/forward. He's been passed over in the lineup by other freshmen, including Keon Brooks, Jr. and Johnny Juzang. Neither of those two were 5-star prospects and project as multi-year guys at Kentucky.
Yesterday, Kentucky had two commits, forwards BJ Boston and Terrence Clarke, both named to the McDonald's All-American game and they both look like they will start from Day 1 next season. The writing was on the wall that Whitney wasn't going to get much time the rest of this season and he'd be at the end of the bench to start next season. Tough spot for the kid.

Going forward, that leaves Calipari with a relatively thin team of just 8 scholarship players. The backcourt has been the best part of the team and Cal will use all three of Immanuel Quickley, Ashton Hagans, and Tyrese Maxey. Quickley can really shoot the ball and has played quite well off the ball as a scoring guard in the 2015 Quinn Cook role. Hagans is still a great defender and has progressed as a lead PG, dishing out a ton of assists. But he's not figured out how to score and is barely a better shooter than he was last year. He's hitting his free throws this year, though, so a team might take a flier on him in the 2nd round in hopes that his 3-point shooting comes around in time a la De'Aron Fox. Maxey is the most dynamic of scorers on the team, but he's been shooting it below 30% from 3 on the season overall and is a tweener in the NBA. He projects as a Lou Williams type in the NBA as a guy that can get hot off the bench. Is that a lottery pick selection, though? All 3 will likely test the NBA draft process and I wouldn't be surprised to see at least 2 if not all 3 leave Kentucky at the end of the year.

Up front, Nick Richards has honestly developed into a reliable and quite good college center. He's tall and long and has been about the most consistent player on the Kentucky roster. EJ Montgomery and grad transfer Nate Sestina have been ok in complementary roles. Montgomery has gotten the most starts this year while Sestina is starting to get more playing time as his 3-point shot is starting to fall. I suspect that Richards will finally go pro after his junior year this year. He'll probably be one of those guys that plays in the NBA for 15 years and has a good game every now and then, like Ian Mahinmi. Sestina is a grad transfer and will be gone after this season. I suspect that Montgomery returns and will start the year at the center position. Maybe he'll develop a shot in time, something he supposedly had in high school.

So that means UK will bring in the #1 class in the country next year but will lose one grad transfer, probably 2 or maybe even all 3 of their guards, and most likely their starting center. I expect their roster will look something like this:

PG: Devin Askew, Immanuel Quickley
SG: BJ Boston, Johnny Juzang, Dontaie Allen (RS-FR after suffering an injury late in high school)
SF: Terrence Clarke, Keion Brooks Cam'Ron Fletcher
PF: Isaiah Jackson, Lance Ware
C: EJ Montgomery

Boston can really shoot the ball, but Clarke was not known as a shooter in high school and more of an athlete. Jackson and Montgomery are not shooters. That puts a lot of pressure on Askew to both stretch the floor and run the offense. It's kind of a typical Kentucky team of late. There's a lot of talent there, but there are questions all over the place. Do the pieces fit? Will all those wings be happy sharing minutes? Can the frontcourt be trusted?

I suspect that the team will be ranked in the top 5 to start the season but might skid in the teens throughout the year unless they add Jonathan Kuminga or a really good grad transfer.

I saw Sierra Canyon play in person last night (they only won by 3), and BJ Boston is indeed a sweet shooter but he's much more than that. He's a very smooth and skilled offensive player with a good handle as well. He's skinny, but it doesn't matter. He can score in a variety of ways and he's going to be a star. He's not as long as Brandon Ingram, but his game reminds me of Brandon's, but I'd say a little more advanced at this stage.

Zaire Williams is a slightly taller carbon copy of Boston, but his shot isn't quite as reliable. The two of them together on the break in a high school game is frankly absurd.

By the way, Sierra Canyon also has a center who emigrated just two years ago from China. He is 7'3" and 300 pounds. In high school. Slow and lunky, but soft hands and a nice touch.

[DavidBenAkiva]

I saw Sierra Canyon play in person last night (they only won by 3), and BJ Boston is indeed a sweet shooter but he's much more than that. He's a very smooth and skilled offensive player with a good handle as well. He's skinny, but it doesn't matter. He can score in a variety of ways and he's going to be a star. He's not as long as Brandon Ingram, but his game reminds me of Brandon's, but I'd say a little more advanced at this stage.

Zaire Williams is a slightly taller carbon copy of Boston, but his shot isn't quite as reliable. The two of them together on the break in a high school game is frankly absurd.

By the way, Sierra Canyon also has a center who emigrated just two years ago from China. He is 7'3" and 300 pounds. In high school. Slow and lunky, but soft hands and a nice touch.

I brought up the shooting with Boston as that has been somewhat of a bugaboo for UK during Cal's tenure. They figured out shooting last year with Tyler Hero and PJ Washington. This year, it's been more inconsistent. Quickley and Sestina have connected from deep recently, but Maxy and Hagans are not. That really bogs down their offensive ability as teams can zone them with success. It mitigates their athletic advantages. I don't see UK's team next year shaping up to have a particularly good shooting profile, either, unless Boston is capable of stretching teams all on his own like Malik Monk did his year in Lexington.

[hallcity]

Allegedly Whitney tweeted this about a year ago while he was still in HS (and then deleted it):

"All of these five stars go to one team and try to team up. Nobody wants to fight and develop through adversity."
https://kentucky.forums.rivals.com/t...t-duke.282674/

It wasn't clear who he was referring to at the time. Ironic in retrospect.

[OldPhiKap]

EJ Montgomery has to be one of the most disappointing top 10 (according to RSCI) recruits of Cal's Kentucky tenure. I mean 7ppg and 5.5rpg from a soph is ok, but not from a kid that most had pegged as a OAD stud

To be fair, those would be his numbers as a junior under Roy.

[Acymetric]

I don't think these announcers understand what possession is.

[MChambers]

I don't think these announcers understand what possession is.

Sure seemed that way, until the fifth replay.

[Acymetric]

Sure seemed that way, until the fifth replay.

Kentucky player takes like 4 dribbles and then passed the ball to another guy.

Announcers: "I just don't see how you could say they ever had possession there"

[brevity]

ESPN's Bottom Line put up a notice that Bob Huggins tied Adolph Rupp for career coaching victories today.

Is that true? Sports Reference shows that Rupp has 876 wins, while Huggins has 803 (now 804). That list is limited to victories at the Division I or equivalent level, and does not include the 71 victories Huggins had at the NAIA level (Walsh College) and 1 non-conference win gained in the 1994-1995 Cincinnati season when California had to forfeit all of their wins.

This Sporting News article helps illustrate the weirdness:

This was No. 876 for Huggins, compiled during his career at WVU, Kansas State, Cincinnati, Akron and, indeed, Walsh College.

Huggins is tied for seventh among Division I coaches, just one more win from breaking the tie with Rupp and three more from catching up to — let's take a breath here, because it's kind of amazing — Dean Smith. Ahead are only Roy Williams, Jim Calhoun, Bob Knight, Jim Boeheim and Mike Krzyzewski.

This quote suggests that Jim Calhoun is ahead of Dean Smith, where the Sports Reference ranked list linked above has it the other way around. Calhoun does indeed have more career wins, but only because he is actively adding wins at the Division III level.

If we measure career win totals at all levels of men's college basketball, like this Wikipedia list seems to do, Bob Huggins is tied with Adolph Rupp for 14th.

ESPN's article massages the language a bit with an arbitrary qualification:

Meanwhile, West Virginia coach Bob Huggins tied Adolph Rupp for seventh on the all-time list -- with at least 10 seasons as a D-I head coach -- with win No. 876 after a 74-51 victory over Missouri.

I guess that's one way to wipe out 7 coaches with more wins, but it still smells like a lie. A retroactively baked-in lie. You know what I mean.

[scottdude8]

I'm sure many noticed Michigan's slide continuing on Saturday with a heartbreaking loss to Illinois, exacerbated by Isaiah Livers apparently aggravating his groin in jury after just 20 minutes on the court. The news got worse today as Zavier Simpson has been suspended (apparently for just 1 game) for Tuesday's arguably must-win contest at Nebraska.

And yet, there was this interesting tid-bit from mgoblog:

So yeah I still maintain that this stretch is arm-wavingly terrible luck and not much else. Since Big Ten play resumed Michigan is shooting 26% from three while their opponents shoot 40%. They rank 332nd in the country in both those metrics. Exactly one team has a bigger gap from behind the line in that time period: Incarnate Word.

What does that mean? Well, Michigan has basically lost any semblance of a chance at a solid NCAA tourney seed. But if they get hot towards the end of the year (i.e. their statistical outlier-level of bad luck subsides), they could be a nice upset pick in March.

[arnie]

I'm sure many noticed Michigan's slide continuing on Saturday with a heartbreaking loss to Illinois, exacerbated by Isaiah Livers apparently aggravating his groin in jury after just 20 minutes on the court. The news got worse today as Zavier Simpson has been suspended (apparently for just 1 game) for Tuesday's arguably must-win contest at Nebraska.

And yet, there was this interesting tid-bit from mgoblog:



What does that mean? Well, Michigan has basically lost any semblance of a chance at a solid NCAA tourney seed. But if they get hot towards the end of the year (i.e. their statistical outlier-level of bad luck subsides), they could be a nice upset pick in March.

The Wolverines still have a better chance at solid NCAA tourney seed than the Cheats. Must be the coaching.

[BD80]

The Wolverines still have a better chance at solid NCAA tourney seed than the Cheats. Must be the coaching.

Whoa. Time out!



After his time with Chris Webber, I wonder if Howard even allows players to call time out?

[SavDukeGrad]

So Seton Hall, ranked no. 10, loses to Xavier, after being lauded this morning by the “experts” on College Game Day as a potential one seed.

The other trendy picks, that I can remember, the “experts” made for potential one seeds were San Diego State, Dayton, Villanova, Gonzaga, Kansas, and Baylor. One of those is also losing right now, but I won’t mention which one for fear of jinxing the outcome.

[devildeac]

So Seton Hall, ranked no. 10, loses to Xavier, after being lauded this morning by the “experts” on College Game Day as a potential one seed.

The other trendy picks, that I can remember, the “experts” made for potential one seeds were San Diego State, Dayton, Villanova, Gonzaga, Kansas, and Baylor. One of those is also losing right now, but I won’t mention which one for fear of jinxing the outcome.

Safe haven here:

https://forums.dukebasketballreport...etball-Edition

[SavDukeGrad]

Safe haven here:

https://forums.dukebasketballreport...etball-Edition

Thank you Devil Deac!

And down goes Villanova! Cursed by the College Game Day crew?

[SavDukeGrad]

Add Michigan State to the list of upsets today, as they lose to Wisconsin in Madison. Wisconsin was up big in the first half, Michigan State came storming back in the 2nd, but Wisconsin hangs on to win by 1, 64-63.

That’s 3 ranked teams that have gone down so far today. Villanova-8, Seton Hall-10, Michigan State-14.

[gep]

Butler-16 also lost. That's 4 ranked teams now. Man, it is SOOOOO important for Duke to hold on and win today.

[jv001]

Add Michigan State to the list of upsets today, as they lose to Wisconsin in Madison. Wisconsin was up big in the first half, Michigan State came storming back in the 2nd, but Wisconsin hangs on to win by 1, 64-63.

That’s 3 ranked teams that have gone down so far today. Villanova-8, Seton Hall-10, Michigan State-14.

Winston made two 3s in the closing seconds to make it a one point game. The last 3 coming at the buzzer. I don't know if that affected the spread or not. Right now Baylor and Louisville look to be the best teams.

GoDuke!