Originally Posted by
Troublemaker
Digging into CSU a bit more, I see a pathway to an uncomfortably close game if Duke doesn't shoot well. CSU last year (and coach Niko Medved's history at other stops) has all the hallmarks of a pack-it-in scheme. They give up tons of 3-pt attempts, don't foul much, don't force turnovers, and are pretty good on the defensive boards. Their center Carvacho was the third-best defensive rebounder in the country last season, so we might not get the offensive boards we would usually expect against such a small team. Additionally, CSU was 30th in the country last season in percentage of possessions in transition, so they will absolutely push the ball off Carvacho's rebounds. If Duke's not shooting well, can we get the ball inside? As a program, we're pretty bad at entry passes (imo), which reared its head a bit against Kansas, and CSU will be crowding the lane... Essentially, if Duke doesn't shoot well to extend the defense, if we're struggling to make entry passes into a crowded lane, if we're not offensive rebounding at a high level, and if CSU is pushing the ball down our throats after defensive rebounds and turnovers, then we're most of the way towards a shocking upset.
On the other side of the court, CSU's offense will in some ways provide an opposite challenge to Kansas, who played caveman basketball. It starts with CSU putting 4 shooters on the court, so we will see Vernon and Javin play 1-on-1 post defense against Carvacho as opposed to all the double teams against Kansas; let's see how that goes. Remember, if Duke is eventually forced to double-team Carvacho, doubling off a 3-pt shooter is very different from doubling off a non-shooting big. Finally, with multiple small guards in the rotation, they should do okay handling the pressure and driving the pressure at times. When CSU drives, can we help without giving up tons of open 3-pt attempts? Essentially, if Carvacho is scoring 1-on-1 in the post and drives are additionally resulting in open 3-pt shots, those are the final pieces to the upset puzzle.
Now, I don't expect all the "ifs" in this post to fall in CSU's favor, of course. But if a shocking upset occurs, what would it look like? I think it looks like the above.