Degenerate Gamblers Rejoice! The 2019-20 Picking Contest is Here!!

[ChillinDuke]

I feel like this is one of those where the basketball analysis might point to a Zags blowout, but the intangibles keep it from being one (ie- they're coming off a huge win at Arizona, everyone's down on UNC ,no Anthony is actually good for them temporarily etc.) I could see them keeping it close for a while.

Then again, I never know if this is just an emotional hedge my brain automatically creates with UNCheat.

I generally agree with you and like to try to play contrarian views to conventional/obvious wisdom when betting. That said, Gonzaga also has a lot of "revenge goodwill" built up in this game which I think skews the intangible scale back toward them. They lost at Chapel Hill last year, and obviously that NCAAT Final loss is still a bitter feeling to any Gonzaga fan. I think they will go for the jugular. To your point, that could end up meaning a rout which hits the over (either because the Zags score 85+ or because it creates a high-tempo game or because garbage time allows UNC some easy buckets).

But this game is in Spokane. UNC is traveling fully cross country. The revenge factor. No Anthony and the potential for no Leaky. I like the conventional play in this circumstance. The over/under is trickier though and decently pegged, IMO.

- Chillin

[robed deity]

I generally agree with you and like to try to play contrarian views to conventional/obvious wisdom when betting. That said, Gonzaga also has a lot of "revenge goodwill" built up in this game which I think skews the intangible scale back toward them. They lost at Chapel Hill last year, and obviously that NCAAT Final loss is still a bitter feeling to any Gonzaga fan. I think they will go for the jugular. To your point, that could end up meaning a rout which hits the over (either because the Zags score 85+ or because it creates a high-tempo game or because garbage time allows UNC some easy buckets).

But this game is in Spokane. UNC is traveling fully cross country. The revenge factor. No Anthony and the potential for no Leaky. I like the conventional play in this circumstance. The over/under is trickier though and decently pegged, IMO.

- Chillin

Ah good points. I hadn't considered the "revenge" factor. Could be big for someone like Tillie, as Tre Jones showed against MSU.

[Troublemaker]

I generally agree with you and like to try to play contrarian views to conventional/obvious wisdom when betting. That said, Gonzaga also has a lot of "revenge goodwill" built up in this game which I think skews the intangible scale back toward them. They lost at Chapel Hill last year, and obviously that NCAAT Final loss is still a bitter feeling to any Gonzaga fan. I think they will go for the jugular. To your point, that could end up meaning a rout which hits the over (either because the Zags score 85+ or because it creates a high-tempo game or because garbage time allows UNC some easy buckets).

But this game is in Spokane. UNC is traveling fully cross country. The revenge factor. No Anthony and the potential for no Leaky. I like the conventional play in this circumstance. The over/under is trickier though and decently pegged, IMO.

- Chillin

Agreed. Double revenge is largely the reason I'm on the Zags as well. It's a square play for sure, but squares are right roughly 50% of the time (whereas sharps are right roughly 55% of the time [long-term]). Hopefully this is part of the winning 50%.

Two additional thoughts:
(1) Even if Gonzaga comes out flat and/or UNC gives a heroic effort in the first half and the score is like tied at halftime, I think I would *still* like Gonzaga to cover the full game. Normally mild-mannered Mark Few probably has it in him to go crazy and break a chalkboard 5 times a season, and he would push the button at halftime here. Double revenge, afterall.
(2) I'm not sure Roy has it in him to reduce possessions in a game despite being a big underdog. If anything, I could see him thinking his best chance to win this game is to push, push, push the pace and try to get easy buckets.

[left_hook_lacey]

Agreed. Double revenge is largely the reason I'm on the Zags as well. It's a square play for sure, but squares are right roughly 50% of the time (whereas sharps are right roughly 55% of the time [long-term]). Hopefully this is part of the winning 50%.

Two additional thoughts:
(1) Even if Gonzaga comes out flat and/or UNC gives a heroic effort in the first half and the score is like tied at halftime, I think I would *still* like Gonzaga to cover the full game. Normally mild-mannered Mark Few probably has it in him to go crazy and break a chalkboard 5 times a season, and he would push the button at halftime here. Double revenge, afterall.
(2) I'm not sure Roy has it in him to reduce possessions in a game despite being a big underdog. If anything, I could see him thinking his best chance to win this game is to push, push, push the pace and try to get easy buckets.

From what I've seen, the only way it's tied at half-time is if Gonzaga just stinks it up and it's like, 28-28 at the break, because UNC can't hit a bull in the arse with a bass fiddle. This is the most inept team I've ever seen UNC roll out there. I wonder when Roy knew he was in trouble with this squad? They had to be building houses with all those bricks in early practice sessions.

They were terrible before, lost their starting point guard and another starting role player. This is going to get ugly fast, and I'm not talking about just the Gonzaga game either. I can't believe Vegas is still giving them "close" point spreads in these marquee games.

[Green Wave Dukie]

I took the over on UVA - Stony Brook. 105.5. Not sure I'll win, but pretty confident I've never seen an over quite like that. 105.5. Wow.

In the meantime, Gonzaga is up to -13.0. Still tempted to take it.

[UrinalCake]

In the meantime, Gonzaga is up to -13.0. Still tempted to take it.

Wow, that line was right on the nose.

[devildeac]

I took the over on UVA - Stony Brook. 105.5. Not sure I'll win, but pretty confident I've never seen an over quite like that. 105.5. Wow.

In the meantime, Gonzaga is up to -13.0. Still tempted to take it.

UVa 56

Stony Brook 44

LOL

I'm watching from a distance. Gambling, even with fake DBR money, is amusing.

[devildeac]

Wow, that line was right on the nose.

As someone posted in another thread I think, "never bet on sports," as the 'Zags apparently "quit" playing with about 2 minutes left, leading by about 20.

[CameronBlue]

UVa 56

Stony Brook 44

LOL

I'm watching from a distance. Gambling, even with fake DBR money, is amusing.

Watching Virginia play basketball is like watching two prizefighters "clinch" for 12 rounds where you use the smelling salts to revive the spectators.

[left_hook_lacey]

I'm making a killing betting against this horrible UNC team. Vegas must be setting the spreads based on UNC's name alone.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

I'm making a killing betting against this horrible UNC team. Vegas must be setting the spreads based on UNC's name alone.

I heard on the radio that the spread was 12.5...went to Degenerate and it was up to 14. I went for the Zags anyway...DAYYUM if it didnt end up 13.

And yeah, Vegas sets the spread based on teams reputations...because that's how many people gamble. The only thing a "spread" is - is an incentive to get an equal numbr of people betting on each side. It's a prediction of how people will bet, not a prediction on the score.

[du_bb1]

Another one bites the dust-hurt bad when Zags stopped playing and Va couldn't make a shot. One would think one should learn something while doing this-obviously not....

[Fish80]

Another one bites the dust-hurt bad when Zags stopped playing and Va couldn't make a shot. One would think one should learn something while doing this-obviously not...

I need a shrink. Or a drink? 0 for my last 8. Horrible slump.

[ChillinDuke]

I heard on the radio that the spread was 12.5...went to Degenerate and it was up to 14. I went for the Zags anyway...DAYYUM if it didnt end up 13.

And yeah, Vegas sets the spread based on teams reputations...because that's how many people gamble. The only thing a "spread" is - is an incentive to get an equal numbr of people betting on each side. It's a prediction of how people will bet, not a prediction on the score.

Minor quibble, but as expressed multiple times before, a spread does not aim to get equal number of people betting on each side. It may work out that way most of the time, especially on games with less volume (e.g. ETSU vs Western Kentucky). But Vegas will happily put more people on one side of a bet if they have reason to believe it will maximize their profit.

Said more directly, the goal of a spread is to maximize Sportsbook profit. Period. The widespread notion that spreads aim for 50% of people on each side is false. That may play out, but it's not the intended goal just a result.

Situations arise where Vegas wants a lopsided book, for reasons not always clear. One of the examples thrown around is perception bias. Say Alabama or the Patriots are playing in their respective Championship, or any game for that matter. There is a tendency for the betting public to overweight bets on the name-brand, big-time team. Now, if the pool of money on that game is enormous (say, the Super Bowl), Vegas may very well want to stay 50/50 and get out of the way. But they also may not and may want people over-betting the name-brand if they have reason to believe it results in better risk-adjusted profit potential.

That's an example, but you get the idea.

OK, back to your regularly scheduled degeneracy.

- Chillin

[dukebluesincebirth]

Wow, that line was right on the nose.

As has been said before, its uncanny how vegas gets some of these lines so close. I'm not in the degenerates contest, but I have an account elsewhere and took the Zags minus 12 (bought a half point when the line was 12.5), so I got the W. I was sweating it the whole game. Needed it going into bowl season! Anyone with any good bowl game tips let me know!

[UrinalCake]

As has been said before, its uncanny how vegas gets some of these lines so close.

I took Miami (OH) +24 over Louisville. That game ended up being a push.

[CameronBlue]

Is it my imagination or did the Covers folks expunge the Duke-Wofford game from the betting ledgers? I was certain I had chosen Duke and the over. Pending the outcome of the game I may remember things differently.

[Green Wave Dukie]

Is it my imagination or did the Covers folks expunge the Duke-Wofford game from the betting ledgers? I was certain I had chosen Duke and the over. Pending the outcome of the game I may remember things differently.

Same for me. Had the over 142.5 (honest!) and Duke -17.5 (which I got late after it was announced Tre wasn’t playing). And I saw earlier today Troublemaker had Duke -19.

So, guess it wasn’t just me.

Also, I put in for Auburn-7.5 at the same time, which it still shows I have. Weird.

[Green Wave Dukie]

Same for me. Had the over 142.5 (honest!) and Duke -17.5 (which I got late after it was announced Tre wasn’t playing). And I saw earlier today Troublemaker had Duke -19.

So, guess it wasn’t just me.

Also, I put in for Auburn-7.5 at the same time, which it still shows I have. Weird.

Well, now it shows up and is giving me 1000 points for my 2 picks, so all is good. Or, as Emily Litella would say (thanks DiK), ‘Never Mind’.

[CameronBlue]

Well, now it shows up and is giving me 1000 points for my 2 picks, so all is good. Or, as Emily Litella would say (thanks DiK), ‘Never Mind’.

Yup, I had the over as well...at 145, which further solidifies my ignominious position as dead last in the O/U rankings and probably by a good bit, I've been there for several betting sessions now. My goal--#1 ATS (now 4th) and 31/31 in the O/U, halfway there. I had been tinkering with a COVAR using points per possession and average total possessions/game that has proven to be comically ill-conceived although it seemed it had useful predictive value as long as the RPI differential was > 30. But at least I cleared up the controversy concerning the origin of the adage "not worth a tinker's dam." Like many truisms, coined by the scorned spouse of a ne'er do well gambler. My wife is putting together a chapbook that should be out by Spring.