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  1. #1
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Seattle, WA

    Minutes Contest 2019-2020

    Contest time again! This will remain open until tip-off of the Kansas game - all posts in before then will count. Pick the minutes per game for each of Duke's players. Minutes per game will be calculated per total team game, not just total games played by the player. In other words, if Joey Baker gets into 10 of the team's 40 games and plays 100 total minutes, his MPG will be 2.5, not 10. jv001 was last year's winner, whose projections were off by a total of 23.8 minutes across the entire team. For reference, here's last year's numbers:

    Barrett - 35.3
    Jones - 32.4
    Reddish - 28.1
    Williamson - 26.1
    White - 18.8
    Bolden - 17.6
    DeLaurier - 16.3
    O'Connell - 13.3
    Goldwire - 7.9
    Vrankovic - 2.4
    Robinson - 1.5
    Baker - 0.5
    Buckmire - 0.3
    Besser - 0.3


    (careful readers will note that totals more than 200 - this is because the team played an overtime game. If you want to factor potential overtimes into your projections, more power to you)
    Just be you. You is enough. - K, 4/5/10, 0:13.8 to play, 60-59 Duke.

    You're all jealous hypocrites. - Titus on Laettner

    You see those guys? Animals. They're animals. - SIU Coach Chris Lowery, on Duke

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Vermont
    ^ good choice on your methodology, sir (or madame)!

  3. #3
    Quote Originally Posted by pfrduke View Post
    Contest time again! This will remain open until tip-off of the Kansas game - all posts in before then will count. Pick the minutes per game for each of Duke's players. Minutes per game will be calculated per total team game, not just total games played by the player. In other words, if Joey Baker gets into 10 of the team's 40 games and plays 100 total minutes, his MPG will be 2.5, not 10. jv001 was last year's winner, whose projections were off by a total of 23.8 minutes across the entire team. For reference, here's last year's numbers:

    Barrett - 35.3
    Jones - 32.4
    Reddish - 28.1
    Williamson - 26.1
    White - 18.8
    Bolden - 17.6
    DeLaurier - 16.3
    O'Connell - 13.3
    Goldwire - 7.9
    Vrankovic - 2.4
    Robinson - 1.5
    Baker - 0.5
    Buckmire - 0.3
    Besser - 0.3


    (careful readers will note that totals more than 200 - this is because the team played an overtime game. If you want to factor potential overtimes into your projections, more power to you)
    I really hope your Baker example does not come to fruition.

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Feb 2013
    Location
    Cambridge, MA
    Quote Originally Posted by pfrduke View Post
    Contest time again! This will remain open until tip-off of the Kansas game - all posts in before then will count. Pick the minutes per game for each of Duke's players. Minutes per game will be calculated per total team game, not just total games played by the player. In other words, if Joey Baker gets into 10 of the team's 40 games and plays 100 total minutes, his MPG will be 2.5, not 10. jv001 was last year's winner, whose projections were off by a total of 23.8 minutes across the entire team. For reference, here's last year's numbers:

    Barrett - 35.3
    Jones - 32.4
    Reddish - 28.1
    Williamson - 26.1
    White - 18.8
    Bolden - 17.6
    DeLaurier - 16.3
    O'Connell - 13.3
    Goldwire - 7.9
    Vrankovic - 2.4
    Robinson - 1.5
    Baker - 0.5
    Buckmire - 0.3
    Besser - 0.3


    (careful readers will note that totals more than 200 - this is because the team played an overtime game. If you want to factor potential overtimes into your projections, more power to you)
    Thanks for organizing the contest.

    Looking at last year’s thread, there were many entries which didn’t include the entire roster. Can you clarify how the results are calculated, particularly for guys who don’t play much?

    If I recall correctly, previous threads have discussed how to handle guys that play less than 2 minutes per game, but I don’t remember the conclusion. It seems to me that the most straightforward way would be to require all contest participants to predict the minutes for all 12 non-redshirt players on the roster.

    Just trying to determine how much effort to spend trying to figure out whether Mike Buckmire is going to play 0.4 or 0.5 mpg!

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Washington, D.C.

    Another WAG

    Tre – 33
    Javin – 22
    Carey – 22
    Moore – 22
    Hurt – 28
    Stanley – 21
    White – 17
    Baker – 14
    O'Connell – 14
    Goldwire – 7

  6. #6
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Seattle, WA
    Quote Originally Posted by House P View Post
    Thanks for organizing the contest.

    Looking at last year’s thread, there were many entries which didn’t include the entire roster. Can you clarify how the results are calculated, particularly for guys who don’t play much?

    If I recall correctly, previous threads have discussed how to handle guys that play less than 2 minutes per game, but I don’t remember the conclusion. It seems to me that the most straightforward way would be to require all contest participants to predict the minutes for all 12 non-redshirt players on the roster.

    Just trying to determine how much effort to spend trying to figure out whether Mike Buckmire is going to play 0.4 or 0.5 mpg!
    As a practical matter, the guys who don't play much play so few minutes that it doesn't really matter. I had, in past years, allowed an "other" category for the collective group of players who play less than 2mpg, but also allowed people to guess those players and judged against them individually if they did - which all just proved way too complicated. So this year everyone will just be ranked individually. If you pick 1 or 0 for the walk-ons, odds are you will be off by about 0.5 minutes either way.
    Just be you. You is enough. - K, 4/5/10, 0:13.8 to play, 60-59 Duke.

    You're all jealous hypocrites. - Titus on Laettner

    You see those guys? Animals. They're animals. - SIU Coach Chris Lowery, on Duke

  7. #7
    Tre – 34
    Hurt – 26
    Carey – 24
    Moore – 23
    Stanley – 21
    White – 18
    Javin – 17
    Goldwire – 13
    Baker – 11
    AOC – 11
    Robinson – 2
    Buckmire – 0

  8. #8
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Wherever the wind blows and the leaves dance.
    Tre – 35
    Hurt – 29
    Carey – 24
    Moore – 23
    Stanley – 20
    White – 18
    Javin – 18
    Goldwire – 13
    AOC – 12
    Baker – 6
    Robinson – 2

  9. #9
    Jones-35
    Hurt-30
    Stanley-25
    Moore-23
    Carey-23
    DeLaurier-17
    White-17
    O'Connell-15
    Goldwire-10
    Baker-3
    Robinson-2
    Buckmire-0

  10. #10
    Lots of folks selling on Baker. Interesting.

  11. #11
    Join Date
    Jun 2008
    Location
    Winston Salem, NC

    Minutes Projections???????

    I'm probably buying into Coach K's statements which sound like more players-more minutes this season. That said, here goes:

    Jones- 35
    Hurt- 30
    Carey- 24
    Moore- 17
    Goldwire- 17
    O'Connell- 16
    DeLaurier- 16
    Stanley- 16
    Baker- 15
    White- 12
    Robinson- 1.5
    Buckmire-. 5

    I look for O'Connell, Baker, Hurt and maybe Carey to hit enough threes to make Duke a top 5-10 team. I'm still worried about Javin playing like an all-conference player and will again be in foul trouble for a good part of the ACC season. This team will probably have defense as their calling card.

    GoDuke!

  12. #12
    Join Date
    Jan 2009
    Location
    Boston, MA

    Me me me!

    Tre – 35
    Hurt – 27
    Moore – 24
    Carey – 22
    Goldwire – 18
    Javin – 17
    Stanley – 16
    White – 15
    AOC – 15
    Baker – 9
    Robinson – 2
    Buckmire – 0
    Criticism may not be agreeable, but it is necessary. It fulfils the same function as pain in the human body. It calls attention to an unhealthy state of things. - Winston Churchill

    President of the "Nolan Smith Should Have His Jersey in The Rafters" Club

  13. #13
    Tre – 35
    Hurt – 27
    Carey – 25
    Moore – 24
    Stanley – 22
    White – 17
    Javin – 17
    AOC - 15
    Goldwire – 9
    Baker – 8
    Robinson – 1

  14. #14
    Join Date
    Apr 2011
    Location
    Winston’Salem
    Never done this before, and this is completely "on the fly," but here goes nothin':

    Jones 33
    Hurt 27
    Stanley 24
    Moore 23
    Carey 22
    White 20
    Goldwire 20
    DeLaurier 15
    O'Connell 7
    Baker 7
    Robinson 2
    "Amazing what a minute can do."

  15. #15
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Raleigh
    Without involving Ymm, Beer, here's my WAG:

    Jones 34
    Goldwire 12
    Moore 24
    Stanley 24
    Baker 8
    AOC 13
    White 16
    Hurt 28
    Carey 25
    Javin 15
    JRob 1


    Nine guys playing >10 minutes each? Ok, Lucy, set up that PK again...

    [redacted] them and the horses they rode in on.

  16. #16
    With an extreme level of wagginess, here is my wag

    Tre – 33
    Hurt – 28
    Carey – 22
    Moore – 22
    Stanley – 22
    White – 17
    Javin – 17
    AOC - 15
    Goldwire – 15
    Baker – 8
    Robinson – 1

    Probably not realistic to have 9 players average double digit minutes but I don't think there is a huge separation in talent in players 4-9.

  17. #17
    Join Date
    Apr 2011
    Location
    Winston’Salem
    Quote Originally Posted by devildeac View Post
    Without involving Ymm, Beer, here's my WAG:
    Quote Originally Posted by azzefkram View Post
    With an extreme level of wagginess, here is my wag
    As long as my WAG isn't DFL, I'll be A-OK . . . . . .
    "Amazing what a minute can do."

  18. #18
    Jones - 33
    Hurt - 30
    Moore - 25
    Carey - 25
    Stanley - 22
    DeLaurier - 20
    White - 15
    O’Connell - 12
    Goldwire - 10
    Baker - 5
    Robinson - 2
    Buckmire - .5
    Savarino - .25
    Worthington -.25

  19. #19
    Tre – 34
    Hurt – 29
    Carey – 17
    Moore – 28
    Stanley – 19
    White – 13
    Javin – 24
    Goldwire – 17
    Baker – 15
    AOC – 5

  20. #20
    Join Date
    Dec 2014
    Location
    Maggie Valley, NC

    Can't Win if You Don't Play...

    ….and you prolly can't win if you don't have good picks, but that never stopped me from trying before.

    Here goes:

    Moore - 17
    Carey - 24
    Stanley - 22
    Jones - 34
    DeLaurier - 14
    Baker - 18
    Goldwire - 8
    O'Connell - 13
    Hurt - 26
    Savarino - .2
    White - 18
    Robinson - 6
    Buckmire - .3

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