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  1. #221
    Join Date
    Dec 2012
    Location
    Los Angeles, CA
    Quote Originally Posted by jimsumner View Post
    Some thoughts on the conservative play calling.

    Call it informed speculation.

    Duke's play calling is seriously impacted by the need to keep Harris healthy. There is nothing behind him.

    This may seem harsh but right now Chris Katrenick is nowhere near being an ACC-caliber QB. He may be down the road. But not right now.

    In fact, should Harris suffer a significant injury (knock on wood), I strongly suspect Duke would move either Calhoun or Bracey to QB and run a wildcat package. Both played QB in high school.

    Throwing deep puts the QB at greater risk of getting hit.

    So, don't throw deep.

    Remember that triple-option everyone was touting a month or so ago? Triple-option QB's get hit.

    So, we're not seeing it. We're not seeing as many called runs for Harris, we're not seeing as much RPO. The pass plays seem to be designed for Harris to get rid of the ball as quickly as possible. He's rarely running through his progressions because getting rid of the ball quickly is taking priority.

    Yes, I realize the irony of a coach touted as a quarterback whisperer having so few options. But as valuable as Daniel Jones might be in the long term, he did contribute to some short-term issues. He scared off Jack Sears and who knows who else but left Duke with a year of eligibility remaining.

    And Cut did not go after any of the numerous grad-student transfer QB options available last fall. For some reason, he just does not like the idea.

    And Gunnar Holmberg getting hurt was just bad luck. Holmberg had always been viewed in the program as Jones' eventual replacement and that's in some jeopardy.
    Thanks for this analysis and insight, excellent as always. I had assumed our very conservative play calling, particularly in the early part of the game, was due to some combination of: an overall lack of faith in QH, a desire to keep from doing something to lose the game in the early moments, wanting to complete some short throws to get QH in a rhythm before opening things up, and unfounded faith in our running game. The injury fear is definitely another factor to put on the list. Whatever the reasoning, everyone seems to know what we’re doing and stacks the line accordingly making it very hard to run or throw short passes. The defense holds up but eventually wilts when we have several consecutive three and outs. By opening QH up to more hits, we might lose him and then lose the remaining games as a result, but I think we will do the latter anyway if we don’t open up the offense a little.

    I would think this coming offseason would be the year to try a grad transfer QB if ever there was one. We have solid young receivers and two good RBs and a third if he can somehow stay healthy. In fact nearly everyone who touches the ball other than QH will be back. We have an O Line that will continue to improve with more time and seasoning, especially when it’s not starting 3 freshman, and we a have a solid defense that has a lot coming back. The pieces are there for a great run in 2020 if we can a get QB who can make plays. If a grad transfer QB doesn’t happen this offseason, then it never will. I would love to see us get someone enrolled for spring so that he could be there for spring ball, but that might be expecting too much.
    Last edited by paris95; 11-10-2019 at 07:37 PM.

  2. #222
    Quote Originally Posted by MaxAMillion View Post
    Sometimes you just have to accept that it was the other team's night. ND has more talent and they appeared to be on their game last night...it happens. I think QB play is a big problem. Playcalling appears to be limited because there is only so much you can do with the QB. Cut will need to upgrade that position this off season.
    ND completely dominated the line of scrimmage on offense (nearly 300 yards on the ground!) superior QB play by Ian Book; they’re just a more talented team on both sides of the ball. Despite two losses they are much better than #15. Our QB situation needs to be addressed. Not sure what happened to the team that beat VT in Blacksburg...

  3. #223
    Jim's post are always insightful

    What year would Sears be at Duke at he not chosen to go to USC and compete with 2 or 3 other 4 and 5* recruits as opposed to coming to Duke and competing with a former walk on, a kid not ACC ready and a QB that we have to shut our offense down to keep from getting injured.
    Would he be eligible this year?

  4. #224
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Steamboat Springs, CO
    Quote Originally Posted by dm9e24 View Post
    Jim's post are always insightful

    What year would Sears be at Duke at he not chosen to go to USC and compete with 2 or 3 other 4 and 5* recruits as opposed to coming to Duke and competing with a former walk on, a kid not ACC ready and a QB that we have to shut our offense down to keep from getting injured.
    Would he be eligible this year?
    He was a HS senior three years ago (Hurricane Matthew). Wouldn't he be a redshirt sophomore this season?
    Sage Grouse

    ---------------------------------------
    'When I got on the bus for my first road game at Duke, I saw that every player was carrying textbooks or laptops. I coached in the SEC for 25 years, and I had never seen that before, not even once.' - David Cutcliffe to Duke alumni in Washington, DC, June 2013

  5. #225
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Raleigh, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by sagegrouse View Post
    He was a HS senior three years ago (Hurricane Matthew). Wouldn't he be a redshirt sophomore this season?
    Sears would be a redshirt sophomore, same as Katrenick, who Duke signed after Sears de-committed.

    In other words, Sears could have redshirted as a freshman in 2017, backed up Jones last year as a redshirt freshman and competed with Harris for the starting job this season.

  6. #226
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Earth
    Quote Originally Posted by fuse View Post
    My humble opinion is Duke is now in a no risk, no reward situation. Duke may not win another football game this season playing with these well intended protective yet self imposed restrictive game plans.
    95% chance Harris and the seniors have 3 football games left in their lives without a bowl. The only question is whether we want to try and make it 4. We aren't beating Miami. Win the next 2 or bust.

  7. #227
    Join Date
    May 2007
    Location
    Winston-Salem, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by duke2x View Post
    95% chance Harris and the seniors have 3 football games left in their lives without a bowl. The only question is whether we want to try and make it 4. We aren't beating Miami. Win the next 2 or bust.
    I just don't agree with your post at all. But I respect you very much as a poster, and value your opinions more than mine quite honestly.

    I think Wake Forest is actually the toughest matchup for us with their outstanding offense.

    But I think our odds of making a bowl are much better than 5%. And there is NO question we want to try to make it 4 more games for our seniors. Maybe Cut saw some things where he decided to play conservatively against Notre Dame, the 2nd team we've played this year from last year's college football playoffs.

    But don't think for a minute that Cut won't go all-in to make a bowl in our last 3 games. I wouldn't bet against him to get it done.

    This season isn't done and neither is Duke. I think we go bowling, and I really think we earn it. We'll see.

  8. #228
    Join Date
    Jan 2014
    Location
    Thomasville, NC
    I hope you are right. But the guys are evidently hamstrung by a timid coaching staff playing it too close to the vest to be competitive. I would put our chances at 30% of winning another game, 10% of making a bowl. Only Syracuse looks winnable to me.

  9. #229
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Vermont
    Quote Originally Posted by Devilwin View Post
    I hope you are right. But the guys are evidently hamstrung by a timid coaching staff playing it too close to the vest to be competitive. I would put our chances at 30% of winning another game, 10% of making a bowl. Only Syracuse looks winnable to me.
    100% agree, Miami and Wake will beat this team. Perhaps I'd up our chances vs Syracuse to 50% as I am generous on Mondays.

  10. #230
    Quote Originally Posted by jimsumner View Post
    Sears would be a redshirt sophomore, same as Katrenick, who Duke signed after Sears de-committed.

    In other words, Sears could have redshirted as a freshman in 2017, backed up Jones last year as a redshirt freshman and competed with Harris for the starting job this season.
    So Sears didn't necessarily diss Duke because of Jones, but he just had an overinflated opinion of his abilities that have not panned out at USC either. Although his senior year, he more than likely didn't see Jones leaving early.

    Maybe we catch lightening in a bottle like a number of programs have this year with freshmen QB's. But it seems like we would have had more alternatives than Harris and Katrenick with Cut's background with QB's. I guess Gunner was that guy, but physically, even before he hurt his knee, he didn't look the part of a D1 power 5 player. Standing beside Daniel in last years bowl game, he didn't look a day over 15.

  11. #231
    Join Date
    May 2007
    Location
    Mobile, Alabama
    Its not all about QH. We havent been able to establish a running game all season. We start two FR. on OL.

    Beyond that,there are systematic problems with our offense. Roper doesnt seem to have good rhythm as a playmaker, but the game plan and playbook are all on Coach Cut. He has certain offensive paradigms that he isnt gong to stray from.

  12. #232
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Durham, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by jimsumner View Post
    Duke will have a significant amount of experience next season at every position except QB. Getting that position figured out is paramount.
    As always a great rundown by Jim (one of several just in the last few pages of this thread). I'll just note that, while this is 100% true on offense (we basically lose QH, Aaron Young, and Zach Baker as starters plus backup lineman Julian Santos), we do lose some key pieces on defense next year (Edgar Cerenord, Tre Hornbuckle, Koby Quansah, Dylan Singleton, and Trevon McSwain). Not insurmountable, but we're going to see a very different D-line next year...I feel comfortable with where we're heading at DE, hopefully some guys are ready to step up at DT.

    What really scares me is that it feels like we are going to graduate about half the 2-deep after next season. There are a lot of juniors (redshirt or otherwise) on this year's squad playing key roles.

  13. #233
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Greensboro, NC
    The drive to end the half was so disheartening. Calling those two timeouts at about the 1:20 mark showed a complete lack of awareness. I can't believe we didn't have a plan for a two-minute drill or something. And failing to run a play during the last :18 would have been unbelievable if we hadn't seen similar stuff all too many times.

    I was thinking that a QB draw might work, one of the few times a run up the middle might have been successful. Then call time out and possibly have time for a pass. Pass or run the first time, we could have run another play before resorting to a field goal. As someone mentioned, the linemen were looking at Quentin Harris, waiting for the cadence. All Q could do was gesture toward the sideline.

    I can imagine the frustration our players must have felt as they headed to the tunnel at halftime. Talk about letting the whole team down? Check that box for our clueless brain trust.
    Man, if your Mom made you wear that color when you were a baby, and you're still wearing it, it's time to grow up!

  14. #234
    Quote Originally Posted by killerleft View Post
    The drive to end the half was so disheartening. Calling those two timeouts at about the 1:20 mark showed a complete lack of awareness. I can't believe we didn't have a plan for a two-minute drill or something. And failing to run a play during the last :18 would have been unbelievable if we hadn't seen similar stuff all too many times.

    I was thinking that a QB draw might work, one of the few times a run up the middle might have been successful. Then call time out and possibly have time for a pass.
    ...well, there's always the tailback jump pass....
    Don't waste your time on House of Cards S6!
    -We found out Frank was critical to making anyone else in the show interesting...not a surprise...

  15. #235
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Greensboro, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by HereBeforeCoachK View Post
    ...well, there's always the tailback jump pass...
    Heck, even that beats... well, uh... Nope!

    Three games in a row, our guys have not been given the best offensive or defensive help at the crucial moments.
    Man, if your Mom made you wear that color when you were a baby, and you're still wearing it, it's time to grow up!

  16. #236
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Norfolk, VA
    Quote Originally Posted by rtnorthrup View Post
    Its not all about QH. We havent been able to establish a running game all season. We start two FR. on OL.
    Our inability to run the football is frustrating but our passing attack is worse. Looking at conference games only, Duke is ranked 6/14 in Rushing Offense and 13/14 in Passing Offense.

    Taking all games into account, Duke is ranked 7/14 in Rushing Offense and 13/14 in Passing Offense.
    Bob Green
    DBR Survivor Football Champion
    2010 & 2016

  17. #237
    Join Date
    Nov 2014
    Location
    The People's Republic of Travis County
    Quote Originally Posted by dm9e24 View Post
    So Sears didn't necessarily diss Duke because of Jones, but he just had an overinflated opinion of his abilities that have not panned out at USC either. Although his senior year, he more than likely didn't see Jones leaving early.

    Maybe we catch lightening in a bottle like a number of programs have this year with freshmen QB's. But it seems like we would have had more alternatives than Harris and Katrenick with Cut's background with QB's. I guess Gunner was that guy, but physically, even before he hurt his knee, he didn't look the part of a D1 power 5 player. Standing beside Daniel in last years bowl game, he didn't look a day over 15.
    We'd do much better to catch that lightning with a transfer (ask OU, or LSU), ideally a grad transfer who can come with more than one year of eligibility but play immediately (ask SMU). But I understand Cut strongly disfavors that route. And it's no guarantee either (ask Arkansas).

  18. #238
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Raleigh, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by dm9e24 View Post
    So Sears didn't necessarily diss Duke because of Jones, but he just had an overinflated opinion of his abilities that have not panned out at USC either. Although his senior year, he more than likely didn't see Jones leaving early.

    Maybe we catch lightening in a bottle like a number of programs have this year with freshmen QB's. But it seems like we would have had more alternatives than Harris and Katrenick with Cut's background with QB's. I guess Gunner was that guy, but physically, even before he hurt his knee, he didn't look the part of a D1 power 5 player. Standing beside Daniel in last years bowl game, he didn't look a day over 15.
    Sears committed to Duke under the assumption that redshirt senior Thomas Sirk would start at QB in 2016. Sears would come in a semester early and compete for the 2017 starting job with Parker Boehme and redshirt freshmen Daniel Jones and Quentin Harris, neither of whom would presumably have played much.

    That changed when Sirk went down with an Achilles injury. Jones leapfrogged Boehme and became the 2016 starter and showed considerable promise early. Sears' path to starting in 2017 suddenly became much more difficult and he backed out of his commitment.

    Sears didn't dis Duke as much as he recognized that beating out Daniel Jones would be a very difficult task.

  19. #239
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Vermont
    Quote Originally Posted by rtnorthrup View Post
    Its not all about QH. We havent been able to establish a running game all season. We start two FR. on OL.

    Beyond that,there are systematic problems with our offense. Roper doesnt seem to have good rhythm as a playmaker, but the game plan and playbook are all on Coach Cut. He has certain offensive paradigms that he isnt gong to stray from.
    While it's true that we start two freshmen at offensive tackle, they replaced two experienced, highly recruited redshirt juniors, Jaylen Miller and Kraeling...so if the two frosh aren't getting the job done, there's little excuse for Miller and Kraeling not replacing them (except Kraeling went down bigtime in the ND game, unfortunately). The other OL guys are highly experienced: Wohlabaugh, Baker and Chambers, with some experienced backups like former starter Santos.
    But I'm totally with you on the problems with the offense, it's just a broken mess right now...watching the receivers run their routes at the game, trying to take in the whole field, I honestly couldn't figure out what they were trying to do other than run into the heart of the ND defense (to little avail) and throw numerous ultra short passes (to even lesser avail).

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