MBB: Duke 69, Northwest Missouri State 63 Post Game thread

[SkyBrickey]

I think some people are viewing this team through Zion colored glasses.

I’m not writing them off after one somewhat disappointing exhibition game.

A week ago some were predicting Carey would be first team all ACC. Then he plays 9 minutes. It’s a process.

And yes, I expect the Kansas game to be competitive.

[Sixthman]

The team I saw looked nowhere near ready to face an elite, experienced opponent on a big stage. Maybe they’ll get there by the end of the season, but we’ve got a long way to go. As to my second point, what I meant is that it has been a long time since we’ve had a team without immediate impact, lottery-level freshmen. Reaching our potential will depend a whole lot more on both individual player development and team development, and less on simply giving the ball to our best players and letting them go.

There is an obvious path for the team I saw on Saturday to be an elite defensive team. Good size on the wings, outstanding defense at guard, and an effective shot blocking presence come to mind. I also believe they are ahead of a lot of recent Duke teams as to transition offense. They seemed ready to run, which shouldn't be taken for granted. In this regard, AO, Tre, Jack, Stanley, and Moore all looked like effective rebounders from the weak side or coming across the lane.

The half court offense was about as discouraging as it can get. Tre was driving effectively and looked strong finishing, but almost never had an option other than to finish. Carey was getting pushed out too far in the post. The only thing we did effectively was throw it to Hurt at the elbow and let him shoot over his smaller defender. Hurt did this really well and the team seemed to enjoy watching him do it (I never saw a cutter he could have laid it off to instead). He won't be able to do that against better competition, but it's a good building block for a team finding its way. We fought pretty hard on the offensive boards, but nothing special.

[SouthernDukie]

And yes, I expect the Kansas game to be competitive.

Based on history alone, I agree. When was the last time, under Coach K, that Duke wasn't competitive in one of these early season high profile games against another Top 10 team? I can't remember to be honest. So I do expect the game to be close and competitive.

[AGDukesky]

My expectations for this team have been lower since the recruiting class was finalized. The combination of returning players and relatively fewer top 10 recruits made it obvious to me that we do not have the same athletic advantage of recent years. My hope is that will make for a more cohesive team with multiple players who can make a difference each game. I was similarly down on expectations prior to the 2009-2010 season for reasons we all remember. Hopefully we all get just as pleasant of a surprise this year...

[UrinalCake]

A lot of people here extrapolating a lot of inferences based on very little data.

The biggest concern that everyone has is our shooting. And you are correct that a single exhibition game plus an intra-squad scrimmage (in which we combined to shoot 6-41 from three) is a small sample size. But also consider that none of our freshmen except Hurt were good shooters in high school. None of our veterans except Alex have proven to be good shooters in college. And none of the scouting reports project that our players will be good shooters in college. So maybe the opposite is true - expecting us to be a good shooting team would be making an inference without much data to back it up.

I hate to be such a bummer. Between the football game and the basketball team’s lackluster performance I’m pretty down. I’m sure we’ll look much better on Wednesday as our opponent is much worse. Maybe the team will surprise me next week, and that would be awesome. I’m actually not too worried about Carey, it’s common against smaller teams in the preseason for the bigs to have a hard time staying in the floor.

[David Bunkley]

12.5% from 3 and 59% from the free throw line are both pretty dreadful.

We also allowed them to take and make a lot of uncontested 3's.

However, we did outplay them in nearly every other facet of the game.

While this may not be the early season juggernaut that we've become accustomed to, I am really excited to see how this team develops throughout the season.

This will be a different kind of ride that we've had recently, but it should still be fun to watch.

#GODUKE

[MChambers]

A lot of people here extrapolating a lot of inferences based on very little data.

On the Internet? On a sports message board? Impossible!

[rsvman]

The pattern we have seen over recent years is that Coach K has his team firing on all cylinders very early in the season and that we do very well in early season games/tournaments, etc., which raises expectations. Then, the team begins to hit a few road blocks in January and especially in early February, sometimes rounding into better form again late in the season and in the ACC tournament.

I, for one, would be OK with this year's team taking a more traditional approach of being a bit out-of-sync in the preseason and in the early part of the year, and then rounding into form about the time ACC play begins in earnest, continuing to get better through January and February and hitting March in stride. That would work for me.

[Indoor66]

On the Internet? On a sports message board? Impossible!

Yeah. He must have landed at DBR by accident.

[Edouble]

Last season was a bloodbath for Kentucky and they *checks notes* ended up in the Elite 8 just like Duke.

That was Kentucky though, not Duke.

Based on history alone, I agree. When was the last time, under Coach K, that Duke wasn't competitive in one of these early season high profile games against another Top 10 team? I can't remember to be honest. So I do expect the game to be close and competitive.

Precisely.

(redacted content)

[dukelifer]

Amazing. Giving up on a team after the 1st exhibition game. Is it 2010?

I am not giving up either- but there is more data out there than 1 game. These Freshman are all good players- but none are known to be especially good shooters other than Hurt. Add them to a point guard who is at best a streaky shooter and you have a limited team that will need to depend on their D. Hurt has the potential to be a very good player this year- the talent and bball IQ are there but like most Freshman- he will be up and down. Moore and Stanley will be very good on the break this year but will need to work on their shooting- we will see if they can be a 30-35% from deep shooter. I have not seen encouraging signs. That leaves Carey for whom I need to see more. The fact that he played little in the game is a tad worrisome as I wonder if that reflects how he is practicing. It is true that the matchups on D were an issue. Again I do not know and look forward to seeing him play well in the next game.

[Steven43]

Moore and Stanley will be very good on the break this year but will need to work on their shooting- we will see if they can be a 30-35% from deep shooter. I have not seen encouraging signs.

I find it kind of remarkable how low our standard as Duke fans has become for assessing what constitutes good three-point shooting after last year’s team shot so poorly from three-point range. We now talk about shooting 30-35% from the college three-point line as if that is good. It is not.

[Indoor66]

I am not giving up either- but there is more data out there than 1 game. These Freshman are all good players- but none are known to be especially good shooters other than Hurt. Add them to a point guard who is at best a streaky shooter and you have a limited team that will need to depend on their D. Hurt has the potential to be a very good player this year- the talent and bball IQ are there but like most Freshman- he will be up and down. Moore and Stanley will be very good on the break this year but will need to work on their shooting- we will see if they can be a 30-35% from deep shooter. I have not seen encouraging signs. That leaves Carey for whom I need to see more. The fact that he played little in the game is a tad worrisome as I wonder if that reflects how he is practicing. It is true that the matchups on D were an issue. Again I do not know and look forward to seeing him play well in the next game.

Maybe they deserve a few more games before being anointed as inadequate or failures.

[sagegrouse]

I am not giving up either- but there is more data out there than 1 game. These Freshman are all good players- but none are known to be especially good shooters other than Hurt. Add them to a point guard who is at best a streaky shooter and you have a limited team that will need to depend on their D. Hurt has the potential to be a very good player this year- the talent and bball IQ are there but like most Freshman- he will be up and down. Moore and Stanley will be very good on the break this year but will need to work on their shooting- we will see if they can be a 30-35% from deep shooter. I have not seen encouraging signs. That leaves Carey for whom I need to see more. The fact that he played little in the game is a tad worrisome as I wonder if that reflects how he is practicing. It is true that the matchups on D were an issue. Again I do not know and look forward to seeing him play well in the next game.

There is a lot of data. Jack White, only 28 percent from three but with an 85 percent FT average. Alex O'Connell was decent at 37.5 percent (75 percent in FT's); Tre shot 75 percent from the line but only 26 percent from three. I expect Jack and Tre to improve over last year. Overall we have 10 or 11 top players (Hey! Justin led the way at 44.4 percent), and some will step up as good shooters. Heck, they got to be top-rated players by playing hoops hours and hours per day.

Yeah -- I wish we had shot 40+ percent in the Blue-White game and the exhibition with NMSU. But I am not conceding anything about the season.

[TeacherTom]

It's amazing how Jack fights for the rebound! Also, when he took the first three, I was so hoping but it hit the rim. Stanley is going help a great deal as you can see he is a superior player. Mr. Carey kind of looked like he was in a daze and just didn't move quickly enough. Just observations from a neophyte.

[Native]

Based on history alone, I agree. When was the last time, under Coach K, that Duke wasn't competitive in one of these early season high profile games against another Top 10 team?

I distinctly remember getting shellacked by Ohio State in the 2011 ACC/B1G challenge game...

[Acymetric]

There is a lot of data. Jack White, only 28 percent from three but with an 85 percent FT average. Alex O'Connell was decent at 37.5 percent (75 percent in FT's); Tre shot 75 percent from the line but only 26 percent from three. I expect Jack and Tre to improve over last year. Overall we have 10 or 11 top players (Hey! Justin led the way at 44.4 percent), and some will step up as good shooters. Heck, they got to be top-rated players by playing hoops hours and hours per day.

Yeah -- I wish we had shot 40+ percent in the Blue-White game and the exhibition with NMSU. But I am not conceding anything about the season.

FWIW, I've seen it established that FT shooting in college is a good indicator of 3PT shooting at the pro level, but I'm not sure I've ever seen it established that FT shooting at the college level is a good indicator of future college 3PT shooting. I'm not saying it isn't, but are we sure that is the case?

[SouthernDukie]

I distinctly remember getting shellacked by Ohio State in the 2011 ACC/B1G challenge game...

Ok, thanks for the refresher. But that was 8 years ago. We generally do very well in these games.

[NW Bearcats]

Not really too concerned with the final score itself. They must’ve made double digit legit bad threes in that game (off the dribble, heavily contested, or more than 5 feet beyond the arc). I also think that was a team that could potentially crack the top 200 in KenPom if they were D1. The big issue I see is finding a lineup that is going to be satisfactory on both offense and defense. I think they showed some spurts of having lineups that are decent on offense, though I will say I can’t see Hurt being able to repeat what he did tonight in the paint against power conference competition. The size mismatches won’t be there. I also saw some lineups that can be elite defensively, but I didn’t see any that were both at the same time. Obviously, the shooting (both foul and three) won’t be that horrid every night, but it’s a legit possibility that it’s no better than last year, and with the best offensive players being guys that are going to be off the ball, I don’t think Duke can be Final Four good without at least respectable shooting. I think you’re going to need to see at least two of Jones, Goldwire, Stanley and Moore shoot over 33% from 3 with decent volume to really have a shot at being Final Four good.

Obviously we’re just scratching the surface on the year, but I think from last week and today, the early returns are showing that there needs to be individual improvement from players. I don’t it’s a needing to work out the cohesion type of issue, and individual improvement is tougher to get during the year.

As a Northwest alum (and yes that's what we call our alma mater), we appreciate all of the nice words regarding our Bearcats and the treatment our team and fans received from Duke Nation. Your people are great and you've won lots of fans from Northwest Missouri.

As others have written since Saturday, Northwest has won 100 of our last 105 games, including the last 38 in a row. Ken Massey's ratings, and you can take it with a grain of salt, ranked Northwest 34th in their final 2019 rankings and the Bearcats start this season at 97 on Massey's list (Bellarmine is the next D2 at 158). We're surprised Ben McCallum is still at Northwest after the 38-0 season, but he is a Northwest alum and there is something about staying home. If McCallum goes back-to back undefeated seasons, there's no way he stays in Maryville, MO for another season. Easiest way to find Maryville, (or as we call it "The Ville") draw a triangle with Kansas City, Omaha, and Des Moines as the points. Maryville is in the middle of that triangle.

Good luck to the Blue Devils this season and again thanks for all of the D2 love you've shown us Bearcats. If you ever come to the Midwest, we'd be happy to return the hospitality.

[UrinalCake]

When was the last time, under Coach K, that Duke wasn't competitive in one of these early season high profile games against another Top 10 team?

When was the last time we didn’t have a projected lottery pick on our roster (usually three or four)? At the start of the season nobody has had much practice time, so it comes down to who has the most raw talent. Again, I would love to be wrong.