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  1. #81
    Quote Originally Posted by Billy Dat View Post
    Yeah, I think they have the best resume in the country, especially coming off consecutive road wins against ranked conference teams.

    I hope that our amazingly weak conference slate doesn't dull our edge, or give us a false sense of how good we really are. Hopefully we take care of business on the road on Tuesday and come home and win convincingly against Louisville.

    I am tempted to say that we've fattened up on cupcakes, but no conference road win is ever easy. Still, the rest of the year features a lot of cupcakes, at least as of this juncture. Hopefully we take advantage and post a really gaudy regular season record.
    Hopefully Duke's recent blowout wins don't give us (the fans) a false sense of how good we really are. A 2-0 week would be fine, no matter the margins of victory. Obviously the game against Lville is huuuge -- just get the W, even if it's by 1 point.

  2. #82
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Mount Kisco, NY
    Quote Originally Posted by Troublemaker View Post
    Hopefully Duke's recent blowout wins don't give us (the fans) a false sense of how good we really are. A 2-0 week would be fine, no matter the margins of victory. Obviously the game against Lville is huuuge -- just get the W, even if it's by 1 point.
    True, just get the W.

  3. #83
    Not a "dork poll," but a dork article from one of ESPN.com's analytics guys arguing why Duke's current team (at #3 in the polls) is underrated. https://www.espn.com/mens-college-ba...son-underrated

    Among other highlights:

    "Even after the Clemson loss, Duke remains No. 1 in these widely used predictive metrics: BPI, Sagarin, TeamRankings and Massey. (Duke fell slightly behind Kansas for No. 1 in KenPom on Thursday morning)."

    "Duke is first in the nation with an adjusted net efficiency of 33.9, and Kansas is second at 32.5. Of Baylor, Butler and Gonzaga -- the three other No. 1 seeds in Joe Lunardi's latest version of Bracketology -- Gonzaga is the closest at 7.9 points per game behind Duke. While that stat would be impressive in most years, this year it is especially so. This season has the smallest standard deviation of adjusted net efficiency at this point in the campaign, going back to 2008. ... Translation: Duke's lead in adjusted scoring is more impressive considering the parity in what has been a wild year for college basketball."

    "The numbers say this group is every bit as dominant as [Zion's team last year]. ... BPI ranks Duke as the best team by 2.1 points. The only team in BPI history (since 2008) that has had a bigger lead in BPI at this point in the season was the 2015 Kentucky team that started 38-0 and featured nine future NBA players."

    "[Despite improving in 3 point accuracy from 327th in the country last year to 40th this year], Duke is not in the top 300 in terms of the percentage of shots it attempts from 3. This team should be shooting even more from outside, and when it does, watch out."

  4. #84
    Quote Originally Posted by Nugget View Post
    "[Despite improving in 3 point accuracy from 327th in the country last year to 40th this year], Duke is not in the top 300 in terms of the percentage of shots it attempts from 3. This team should be shooting even more from outside, and when it does, watch out."
    I've posted about this before, but I wonder if the bolded part is really true? The past couple games we've both taken and made a lot of threes, but for the season we've had 8 games in which we've taken fewer than 30% of our shots from three, and in those games we've hit 41.7% of our three-pointers; and we've had 9 games in which we've taken more than 30% of our shots from three, and in those games we've only hit 34.4% of our three-pointers. Maybe it's statistical noise, or maybe when we take fewer three-pointers, the ones we do take are better shots. It might be worth watching, anyway.

  5. #85
    Join Date
    Oct 2007
    Location
    Southbury, CT
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    I've posted about this before, but I wonder if the bolded part is really true? The past couple games we've both taken and made a lot of threes, but for the season we've had 8 games in which we've taken fewer than 30% of our shots from three, and in those games we've hit 41.7% of our three-pointers; and we've had 9 games in which we've taken more than 30% of our shots from three, and in those games we've only hit 34.4% of our three-pointers. Maybe it's statistical noise, or maybe when we take fewer three-pointers, the ones we do take are better shots. It might be worth watching, anyway.
    We need a Shane Battier-esque shot analysis to confirm Kedsy! FWIW I tend to agree—we’re making more threes because they are better shots.

  6. #86
    Quote Originally Posted by Gooch View Post
    We need a Shane Battier-esque shot analysis to confirm Kedsy! FWIW I tend to agree—we’re making more threes because they are better shots.
    From a purely subjective eye-test, I'd tend to agree w you and Kedsy that from watching the games it doesn't appear that we are shooting too few threes - I've been pleased with this team's shot selection.

  7. #87
    Join Date
    Jun 2008
    Location
    Winston Salem, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by Nugget View Post
    From a purely subjective eye-test, I'd tend to agree w you and Kedsy that from watching the games it doesn't appear that we are shooting too few threes - I've been pleased with this team's shot selection.
    I completely agree with you. Our shot selection has been very good this season. I think one reason is we don't have any player that's a stopper of the ball. At the beginning of the year, it looked like Wendell might be guilty of that but he's improved greatly in that part of his game. Sure there have been times the team has forced up a 3 with the shot clock winding down but that's mostly a result of the opponent playing good defense. I love the way this team plays on both ends of the court. Well, except in the Clemson game. Our defense wasn't that great.
    GoDuke!

  8. #88
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    Duke is hitting 36.9% of our threes while taking 31% of our shots from deep. It is absolutely a fallacy to say that we will continue to hit at a 36.9% rate if we up that shot choice percentage to 35 or 40%. It might hold true, but it is fairly likely it will not.
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  9. #89
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Duke is hitting 36.9% of our threes while taking 31% of our shots from deep. It is absolutely a fallacy to say that we will continue to hit at a 36.9% rate if we up that shot choice percentage to 35 or 40%. It might hold true, but it is fairly likely it will not.
    That said, if we could hit at a 35% rate while shooting 35-38% of our shots from deep, we should probably do that... but even that is far from a sure-thing.
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  10. #90
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    Durham
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Duke is hitting 36.9% of our threes while taking 31% of our shots from deep. It is absolutely a fallacy to say that we will continue to hit at a 36.9% rate if we up that shot choice percentage to 35 or 40%. It might hold true, but it is fairly likely it will not.
    Especially since, at least to my eyes, one of the reasons we are hitting so well from 3 overall is that we don't really take many bad threes. almost all of them are in the flow of the offense, breakaways, kickouts, etc.

    I also don't see us pass up these good shots when they are available.

    So if we were to attempt to increase our 3PA, it seems we would necessarily be increasing the amount of "bad" shots we take from three, which would almost surely lower the overall percentage.
    Dear kindly Sergeant Swofford
    You gotta understand
    It's just a class was offered
    every student in the land!
    Our students all are flunkies
    Our teachers all are chumps
    Golly Moses, a total garbage dump!

    Gee, Officer Swofford
    We're down on our knees
    'Cause we don't want to take down such a banner as these
    Gee, Officer Swofford
    What are we to do?
    Gee, Officer Swofford
    Swoff you!

  11. #91
    Duke is back at #1 on KenPom this morning by a hair over Kansas (29.41 to 29.40) due to the secondary effects of previous games played and those teams' shifting rankings. Both are head and shoulders above the field, with #3 Baylor at 25.24, down through #10 Louisville at 22.74. Tonight will be a true test for Duke (vs. Louisville) to validate their lofty perch in this and most of the other analytical rankings.

  12. #92
    Earlier today Kenpom tweeted this "...My home court advantage model says HCA is as low as it's ever been and home teams have won just 59.6% of conference games so far. The third lowest of all time!". The image below features Doug Gottlieb's reaction to this statement and also features Ken Pom's follow up slam of Gottlieb's inaccurate analysis. Ken is right... any college baskedball fan knows that Doug's analytical abilities are alarmingly unpolished.

    2020-01-18 16.15.40.jpg

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