Page 1 of 5 123 ... LastLast
Results 1 to 20 of 92
  1. #1

    MBB: Dork Polls 2019-20 Edition

    2019-2020 KenPom is out....kenpom.com

    Mich St. in a different tier than the rest....Duke at 4 and UNC at 6.

  2. #2
    Apparently Michigan State just lost to Gonzaga in a scrimmage.

  3. #3
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Inman, SC & Fort Myers, FL
    Quote Originally Posted by bullettoothtony View Post
    Apparently Michigan State just lost to Gonzaga in a scrimmage.
    Wow, although in the past, Izzo teams have started slowly.
    This message was composed entirely from recycled letters of the alphabet using only renewable, caffeinated energy sources.
    No trees, wabbits, chimps or whales died in the process.

  4. #4
    Quote Originally Posted by mgtr View Post
    Wow, although in the past, Izzo teams have started slowly.
    Apparently Gonzaga beat them in a scrimmage last year, too. The Zags played without Tillie, out with a knee injury, but they are still pretty good. Kispert started last year, and was efficient, even if not one of the top options on o. Petrusev was a good bench pieces last year and a top 100 RSCI guy. Timme and Watson were top 50 guys coming in as freshmen. Admon Gilder, grad transfer, was a good 3 shooter and 12-13 ppg guy at Texas A&M. Woolridge is another decent grad transfer from North Texas. Few has them at the stage where they basically just reload.

    Izzo has a teachable moment here, probably.

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Manhattan
    After last night, we’re 10th in AdjO and 3rd in AdjD. We also lead the nation in turnover percentage. Hopefully these numbers stay pat.

  6. #6
    Join Date
    Jan 2009
    Location
    Boston, MA
    Quote Originally Posted by Native View Post
    After last night, we’re 10th in AdjO and 3rd in AdjD. We also lead the nation in turnover percentage. Hopefully these numbers stay pat.
    That AdjD number should, given the identity of the team. That AdjO number is gonna come way down before it comes back up.

    I'm expecting 20s and 30s in Dec/Jan.
    Criticism may not be agreeable, but it is necessary. It fulfils the same function as pain in the human body. It calls attention to an unhealthy state of things. - Winston Churchill

    President of the "Nolan Smith Should Have His Jersey in The Rafters" Club

  7. #7
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    Can someone explain to me how Duke and Kansas have different tempo ratings? I guess there is some adjustment for opponent in there but we have exactly 1 game of tempo evidence on Duke and Kansas... maybe I am not good enough at math or stats or something.

    Also Duke just played the 10th best team in the land but Duke has the 22nd best schedule. I guess the home adjustment makes some of the teams who are ranked lower than Kansas a tougher opponent after 1 game.

    -Jason "the lesson is to not look at statistical models after one game... it will just confuse you and has very very very limited value" Evans
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  8. #8
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Washington, D.C.

    Starting points

    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Can someone explain to me how Duke and Kansas have different tempo ratings? I guess there is some adjustment for opponent in there but we have exactly 1 game of tempo evidence on Duke and Kansas... maybe I am not good enough at math or stats or something.

    Also Duke just played the 10th best team in the land but Duke has the 22nd best schedule. I guess the home adjustment makes some of the teams who are ranked lower than Kansas a tougher opponent after 1 game.

    -Jason "the lesson is to not look at statistical models after one game... it will just confuse you and has very very very limited value" Evans
    Jason, KenPom doesn’t start at zero each season. Each team comes in with AdjO, AdjD, and tempo numbers based on last year and other stuff, to get technical.

  9. #9
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    Quote Originally Posted by MChambers View Post
    Jason, KenPom doesn’t start at zero each season. Each team comes in with AdjO, AdjD, and tempo numbers based on last year and other stuff, to get technical.
    I knew that Ken baked in some preseason guesses on O and D. I did not know he did that for tempo too. I suppose that makes sense.
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  10. #10
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Washington, D.C.

    Yep

    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    I knew that Ken baked in some preseason guesses on O and D. I did not know he did that for tempo too. I suppose that makes sense.
    Look at UVa. Haven't played yet, but ranked dead last (or first, in Tony Bennett's mind) in tempo, at #353.

  11. #11
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Mount Kisco, NY
    I heard Gary Parrish note that today may be the only day in KenPom history when a team below .500 was ranked #1.

  12. #12
    Join Date
    May 2010
    Location
    New York, NY
    Quote Originally Posted by flyingdutchdevil View Post
    That AdjD number should, given the identity of the team. That AdjO number is gonna come way down before it comes back up.

    I'm expecting 20s and 30s in Dec/Jan.
    FDD, when you say "the identity of the team", what do you mean? You've said this in a couple threads now that I've seen.

    Should I take you to mean that based on our first game, you believe that the team will have a defensive mindset?

    If so, you may end up being right. But I'm not sure how you're there already after only 40 mins of meaningful basketball.

    - Chillin

  13. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by ChillinDuke View Post
    FDD, when you say "the identity of the team", what do you mean? You've said this in a couple threads now that I've seen.

    Should I take you to mean that based on our first game, you believe that the team will have a defensive mindset?

    If so, you may end up being right. But I'm not sure how you're there already after only 40 mins of meaningful basketball.

    - Chillin
    He might be thinking "it better be" after seeing some of the early offensive numbers.

  14. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by ChillinDuke View Post
    FDD, when you say "the identity of the team", what do you mean? You've said this in a couple threads now that I've seen.

    Should I take you to mean that based on our first game, you believe that the team will have a defensive mindset?

    If so, you may end up being right. But I'm not sure how you're there already after only 40 mins of meaningful basketball.

    - Chillin
    It's also what Coach K has said repeatedly in press conferences, though. In one instance, he even said (paraphrasing) that we are a very confident bunch on defense and he wants us to develop that kind of confidence on offense as well.

    While normally I would be wary of taking preseason K quotes 100% seriously (e.g. last preseason's "5-out offense," multiple previous examples of preseason "we'll be deeper"), his preseason thoughts have seemed to mesh with what we've seen on the court so far. This team does appear to have a defensive identity and Coach K at least for now does appear to be going deeper into his bench than usual.

  15. #15
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Raleigh
    Quote Originally Posted by MChambers View Post
    Look at UVa. Haven't played yet, but ranked dead last (or first, in Tony Bennett's mind) in tempo, at #353.
    Well, they haven't scored yet...

    [redacted] them and the horses they rode in on.

  16. #16
    While it's too early in the season to take any one team's efficiency ratings too seriously, in the aggregate there are definitely trends to pick up on in how teams are different this year than in years past. Every year around this time, Ken Pomeroy will tweet nationwide FT%, 3PT%, etc. to show how those rates tend to establish themselves pretty early in a given season. While each team has only played 2 or 3 games by now, in the aggregate that means hundreds and hundreds of D1 games have been played already.

    This year, what he's been harping on is overall offensive efficiency. The trend is down across the country, and it doesn't take a genius to theorize that the longer 3pt line is the culprit. My opinion/hope when the rule change was announced was that this would benefit teams with better talent overall, like Duke. I don't even think it's necessary that Duke in particular is proficient at shooting 3s to be helped by the rule change (although, it certainly won't hurt if Stanley, O'Connell, Hurt, Jones, White, Moore, Carey, etc. find themselves making a high % of their 3s). What I do think is that by making the offensive footprint bigger, more talented players all over the floor are going to have more opportunity to succeed against their less talented counterparts. Good for programs like Duke.

    I'm interested to follow this trend this season. Pomeroy has noted that offensive efficiency and shooting percentages tend to increase throughout a season, but the point this year is that the starting point is much lower than previous years. He has noted in several tweets, if you follow him there, that 2019-20 will end up as the worst overall offensive efficiency season since the shot clock was reduced to 30. And, that this season already has more games in which a team failed to score 35 points (in 9 days!) than in any of the previous 4 full seasons. That last stat was the mind-blowing impetus for me to make this post.

    Anyway, I'm very interested to follow this trend throughout the season, and I'm excited to test my hypothesis that better teams are helped by the rule change. If I'm right, I'd expect that the gap between the best teams in terms of their offensive and net rating will be greater than in years past, and upsets will be harder to come by. (Just don't tell Evansville that!)

  17. #17

    Duke #1 in both polls

    Four ACC in top 7 and four in top 6 in Coaches

    Louisville #2

    uncheats #5

    Virginia #7

    no other ACC ranked though FSU is 26th.

    https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/rankings

  18. #18
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Location
    NC Raised, DC Resident
    Quote Originally Posted by Hartford Dukie View Post
    Four ACC in top 7 and four in top 6 in Coaches

    Louisville #2

    uncheats #5

    Virginia #7

    no other ACC ranked though FSU is 26th.

    https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/rankings
    And to keep to the Dork Poll theme of the thread, four ACC teams in the top-7 of KenPom:
    2. UofL
    3. UVa
    4. Duke
    7. Unx
    ...
    15. FSU
    ...
    ...
    43. NCSt
    44. VaTech
    46. Notre Dame
    51. Cuse
    Haters gonna hate.

  19. #19
    Join Date
    Oct 2013
    Location
    Dallas, TX
    If the rankings of these early season polls proves somewhat accurate, it would appear that Duke has one of the easiest possible schedules in the conference. Of the top 5 teams in the ACC, Duke plays Virginia, Louisville, and Florida State just once each (which is fairly lucky considering we are playing 20 conferences games this season), with Virginia being the only road game of those 3. Duke cannot play against itself, and we have the home and home with UNC of course. All things considered, this is a relatively easy conference schedule.

    Our non conference schedule is also is pretty easy. Aside from top 10 opponents Michigan State and Kansas, who we already played, there are only 2 possible teams we will be facing currently in the top 100 on KenPom: Georgetown (#69) and Texas (#26), and we will only face one of those teams if we reach the championship of the 2K classic event.

    Pretty cupcake schedule this year, at first glance. But then again, Georgia St. (#147 currently) gave us a pretty good game in Cameron. We have a very young team, so an unexpected loss could happen. And also, I did caveat this in the first sentence of my post, but it's extremely early, and these rankings probably don't mean all that much yet.
    Last edited by kAzE; 11-18-2019 at 04:22 PM.

  20. #20
    Quote Originally Posted by English View Post
    And to keep to the Dork Poll theme of the thread, four ACC teams in the top-7 of KenPom:
    2. UofL
    3. UVa
    4. Duke
    7. Unx
    ...
    15. FSU
    ...
    ...
    43. NCSt
    44. VaTech
    46. Notre Dame
    51. Cuse
    Man, I really expected the middle of the league to come a lot closer to the top this year. With UVa, Duke, and UNC losing soooooo much production, I really expected the lines between the "tiers" in the league to get a little blurry this season. Instead, it seems that the gap between the top teams (FSU notwithstanding, or heck, you can even throw them in with the other top 4) and the middle of the league has widened.

    I'll also say that based on the dreaded eyeball test, I don't think ANY team in the league is very close to where Duke, UNC, and UVa were last season from a quality-of-play standpoint.

Similar Threads

  1. Replies: 147
    Last Post: 08-09-2019, 07:21 PM
  2. MBB Dork Polls/Stats: 2017-18 Edition
    By Troublemaker in forum Elizabeth King Forum
    Replies: 73
    Last Post: 03-14-2018, 12:07 AM
  3. MBB Dork Polls/Stats: 2016-17 Edition
    By Troublemaker in forum Elizabeth King Forum
    Replies: 155
    Last Post: 03-07-2017, 04:04 PM
  4. MBB Dork Polls/Stats, 2015-16 Edition
    By Troublemaker in forum Elizabeth King Forum
    Replies: 28
    Last Post: 02-19-2016, 12:07 PM
  5. Dork Polls: Men's Bball 2013-14 Edition
    By Troublemaker in forum Elizabeth King Forum
    Replies: 196
    Last Post: 03-23-2014, 12:59 AM

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •