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  1. #21
    Quote Originally Posted by kAzE View Post
    If the rankings of these early season polls proves somewhat accurate, it would appear that Duke has one of the easiest possible schedules in the conference. Of the top 5 teams in the ACC, Duke plays Virginia, Louisville, and Florida State just once each (which is fairly lucky considering we are playing 20 conferences games this season), with Virginia being the only road game of those 3. Duke cannot play against itself, and we have the home and home with UNC of course. All things considered, this is a relatively easy conference schedule.
    .
    I guess we finally got the Virginia treatment on the schedule...they seem to get lucky with that every year.
    Don't waste your time on House of Cards S6!
    -We found out Frank was critical to making anyone else in the show interesting...not a surprise...

  2. #22
    Quote Originally Posted by Wahoo2000 View Post
    Man, I really expected the middle of the league to come a lot closer to the top this year. With UVa, Duke, and UNC losing soooooo much production, I really expected the lines between the "tiers" in the league to get a little blurry this season. Instead, it seems that the gap between the top teams (FSU notwithstanding, or heck, you can even throw them in with the other top 4) and the middle of the league has widened.

    I'll also say that based on the dreaded eyeball test, I don't think ANY team in the league is very close to where Duke, UNC, and UVa were last season from a quality-of-play standpoint.
    I think the top ACC teams will come back to the pack as the season progresses, as I am highly suspicious of some of those rankings. Starting with UVA, to be frank, as I don't think you guys are really a top-5 team. (I will add that a good case can be made that Duke won't be top-5 on a long-term basis either. Louisville at #2 also seems like a stretch, but we'll see). With UVA, I'm wondering if we'll see a repeat of 2017 when kenpom actually loved you guys through January before the team somewhat collapsed in February and March.

  3. #23
    Join Date
    Mar 2008
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    New Orleans, Louisiana
    Quote Originally Posted by Troublemaker View Post
    (...Louisville at #2 also seems like a stretch, but we'll see).
    Louisville gets tested in December with games against Michigan (at home), Texas Tech (neutral), and Kentucky (road). I would be very surprised if their January 18 game at Duke is still a 1 vs 2 matchup.

  4. #24
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
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    NC Raised, DC Resident
    Quote Originally Posted by Troublemaker View Post
    I think the top ACC teams will come back to the pack as the season progresses, as I am highly suspicious of some of those rankings. Starting with UVA, to be frank, as I don't think you guys are really a top-5 team. (I will add that a good case can be made that Duke won't be top-5 on a long-term basis either. Louisville at #2 also seems like a stretch, but we'll see). With UVA, I'm wondering if we'll see a repeat of 2017 when kenpom actually loved you guys through January before the team somewhat collapsed in February and March.
    Agreed, and I'm interested to see what happens to these rankings when last year's stats get flushed out of the calculus. That said, the consensus seems to be that college hoops is down across the board this year--certainly there aren't any/many teams to jump out as goliaths--so we'll see if the top ACC teams are just the best of this year's crop. I suspect, though, that this year will see more parity and upsets than most years when a few teams really separated themselves from the field. That's all just my hunch without any real basis in data to this point of the young season.
    Haters gonna hate.

  5. #25
    Heads up. Duke is currently #1 in both human polls and kenpom!

    Might not last, depending on how we perform against SFA tonight.

  6. #26
    Quote Originally Posted by Troublemaker View Post
    Heads up. Duke is currently #1 in both human polls and kenpom!

    Might not last, depending on how we perform against SFA tonight.
    You know what's crazy about Pomeroy right now? The #1 offense has an adjusted oRating of just 114.8.

    I assume it has to do with the lengthened three-point line, but wow. In Pomeroy history, the lowest #1 adjO rating was 119.4 (Duke in 2006). The second lowest was 120.9 (Georgia in 2003).

  7. #27
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    Durham
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    You know what's crazy about Pomeroy right now? The #1 offense has an adjusted oRating of just 114.8.

    I assume it has to do with the lengthened three-point line, but wow. In Pomeroy history, the lowest #1 adjO rating was 119.4 (Duke in 2006). The second lowest was 120.9 (Georgia in 2003).
    It generally grows as the year goes on, and parameters in the algorithms can tweak the mean and spread a bit...though i think he tries to choose paramaters that keep the mean around 100 and the spread in either direction about 20.

    Either way, it won't be "tuned in" until we have removed all the preseason data.
    oof

    "If you don't address the things you're not doing well when you're winning the winning will eventually stop."

    -David Cutcliffe

  8. #28
    Quote Originally Posted by uh_no View Post
    It generally grows as the year goes on, and parameters in the algorithms can tweak the mean and spread a bit...though i think he tries to choose paramaters that keep the mean around 100 and the spread in either direction about 20.

    Either way, it won't be "tuned in" until we have removed all the preseason data.
    The numbers might be lower after we remove the preseason data.

  9. #29
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    Quote Originally Posted by Troublemaker View Post
    Might not last, depending on how we perform against SFA tonight.
    It is now clear to me that Troublemaker is a witch who can see into the future.
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  10. #30
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    It is now clear to me that Troublemaker is a witch who can see into the future.
    Troublemaker has picked their online persona carefully.

  11. #31
    Just logged onto KenPom today and noticed that the current first place team, MSU, is at 26.89 adjusted eff margin. And while I'm aware that the numbers still have a lot of preseason estimates/projections baked in, I honestly think those are only helping most of the teams at the top.

    26.89, btw, as an END of season ranking, wouldn't crack the top 5 in MOST seasons, and averages falling somewhere around 8th nationally. This is really reinforcing (to me) the opinion that there just aren't ANY elite teams out there this year. In fact, based on the numbers, it looks like you'd have to go OUTSIDE the top 60 for the #1 team in the nation to be favored by double digits on a neutral site game (assuming an "average" number of possessions game, around 70-75). That seems crazy to me. Just an insane level of parity in college bball this year.

  12. #32
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    The numbers might be lower after we remove the preseason data.
    Last year, at seasonís end, UVA was the #2 offensive team in the country. This year, with a ton of that #2-ness still baked in, UVA is currently ranked #82 in offense.

    If you stripped out last seasonís numbers, I donít know that UVA would rate as an average offense in the MAC, much less the ACC.

  13. #33
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    Durham
    Quote Originally Posted by ElliottHoo View Post
    Last year, at seasonís end, UVA was the #2 offensive team in the country. This year, with a ton of that #2-ness still baked in, UVA is currently ranked #82 in offense.

    If you stripped out last seasonís numbers, I donít know that UVA would rate as an average offense in the MAC, much less the ACC.
    a single past years results don't have THAT much influence...

  14. #34
    UVA's averaging a whopping 0.91 points per possession so far this season, despite playing essentially average defensive teams so far (KenPom 98.7 OppD, #151). The median MAC offensive team so far this season is exactly 1.00 AdjO (mid-way between Akron and Miami-OH). Miami-OH, excluding non-D1 opponents, has averaged 1.05 points per possession while playing average OppD of about 1.00.

    Obviously, all *those* numbers still have lots of last season baked in as well, but I think its quite probable I overstated how well UVA's offense is playing.

  15. #35
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    And we have a new #1 team in KenPom. After Duke's beatdown of Michigan State (at Breslin) the Spartans have moved out of the #1 spot and now find themselves as the #3 team in the land according to the advanced metrics of Mr. Pomeroy.

    Louisville, who had a really impressive defensive performance against Michigan, is now the #3 offensive team and the #4 defensive team making them the overall #1 team in the country. KenPom's #2 is some team that managed to lose to the Six Million Dollar Man last week.

    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  16. #36
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Washington, D.C.

    T-Rank and UVa

    Quote Originally Posted by ElliottHoo View Post
    UVA's averaging a whopping 0.91 points per possession so far this season, despite playing essentially average defensive teams so far (KenPom 98.7 OppD, #151). The median MAC offensive team so far this season is exactly 1.00 AdjO (mid-way between Akron and Miami-OH). Miami-OH, excluding non-D1 opponents, has averaged 1.05 points per possession while playing average OppD of about 1.00.

    Obviously, all *those* numbers still have lots of last season baked in as well, but I think its quite probable I overstated how well UVA's offense is playing.
    UVa's defense is #1 in T-Rank, best in the country by a huge margin, but the offense is #168.

  17. #37
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Raleigh
    Quote Originally Posted by MChambers View Post
    UVa's defense is #1 in T-Rank, best in the country by a huge margin, but the offense is #168.
    And they'll be delighted every time they bludgeon a foe by a score of something like 50-45.
    [redacted] them and the horses they rode in on.

  18. #38
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Location
    NC Raised, DC Resident
    Quote Originally Posted by devildeac View Post
    And they'll be delighted every time they bludgeon a foe by a score of something like 50-45.
    To reinforce that, tonight's Over/Under in the UVa-Purdue matchup is a generous 103.5 (opened at 101.5). For the gambling uninitiated, that's LOW. Basically, Vegas thinks tonight's game is going to be something like Purdue 53-49 UVA (Purdue also favored by 2 at home).

    Vegas cannot make this season's UVa Unders low enough.
    Haters gonna hate.

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