Early odds in Vegas have Duke as a 4 points underdog with the Over/Under at 44 points. Sagarin ratings have Duke at 42 and Virginia at 38. ESPN Football Power Index gives Virginia a 58.4% chance to win.
A key for Duke will be pressuring and containing QB Bryce Perkins. It isn't enough to pressure him, the defense needs to keep him hemmed in. He killed us with his legs last year.
On offense, we need to achieve balance by successfully running the ball. Virginia has a tough run defense, yielding a measly 90 yards per game so they will try to make us one dimensional.
This is a big road game with the victor staying atop the Coastal Division standings.
Bob Green
Per the SRS, #35 Duke is 2.84 points better than #46 Virginia on a neutral field, making UVA maybe 1 point better at home. No matter how it's sliced -- Virginia #38 or #46; Duke #35 or #42; spread of 1 point, 3 points, 4 points -- these are two evenly matched teams based on performance to date, and a big day on what the weather app says, for now, will be a sunny, 69-degree day in
Charlottesville -- just a glorious fall day.
ACC Coastal race
VA 2-1 ... DU, @LV, @NC, GT, VT
Duke 2-1 ... @VA, @NC, SU, @WF, UM
NC 2-1 ... @VT, DU, VA, @PT, @ST
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PT 1-1 ... @SU, UM, @GT, NC, @VT, BC
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UM 1-2 ... GT, @PT, @FS, LV, @DU
VT 1-2 ... NC, WF, @GT, PT, @VA
GT 0-3 ... @UM, PT, @VA, VT, ST
Saturday at 3:30 pm will be a fun time -- with Duke @ UVa and UNC @ VT. And we will have Pitt's updated record after it plays Syr Friday night.
Sage Grouse
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'When I got on the bus for my first road game at Duke, I saw that every player was carrying textbooks or laptops. I coached in the SEC for 25 years, and I had never seen that before, not even once.' - David Cutcliffe to Duke alumni in Washington, DC, June 2013
Pivotal game in the Coastal.. Need it bad..UVA 31, Duke 24..Sorry, hope I am wrong.
2012: start 5-1 ... finish 6-7 -- 68th in the country (per the SRS)
2013: start 4-2 ... finish 10-4 -- 31st in the country
2014: start 5-1 ... finish 9-4 -- 40th in the country
2015: start 5-1 ... finish 8-5 -- 57th in the country
2016: start 3-3 ... finish 5-8 -- 77th in the country
2017: start 4-2 ... finish 7-6 -- 37th in the country
2018: start 4-2 ... finish 8-5 -- 41st in the country
2019: start 4-2 ... finish ??-? -- currently 35th in the country
https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb...-schedule.html
It's been a fun, successful year to date and hopefully will continue to be so.
The WF -UNC game was not counted as a conference game
"This is the best of all possible worlds."
Dr. Pangloss - Candide
Direct your complaints to John Swofford. (ESPN: Wake Forest beats North Carolina 24-18 in nonconference game)
That said, I am mildly surprised that the Clemson loss counts in the Coastal Division standings. UNC is 2-0 so far against the other 6 teams in the division.
ETA: While I'm here, ESPN also reports that Virginia cornerback Bryce Hall has ankle surgery, out for season.
Virginia
+35 W&M
+16 @Pitt
+11 ODU
+07 FSU
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-08 @Miami
-15 @ND
Duke
+35 @VT
+32 NCA&T
+23 @MTSU
+18 GT
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-03 Pitt
-39 (N)Bama
Are we at the point in the season where injuries accumulate and weaken our defense?
Sage Grouse
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'When I got on the bus for my first road game at Duke, I saw that every player was carrying textbooks or laptops. I coached in the SEC for 25 years, and I had never seen that before, not even once.' - David Cutcliffe to Duke alumni in Washington, DC, June 2013
2012: start 5-1 ... finish 6-7 -- 68th in the country (per the SRS)
2013: start 4-2 ... finish 10-4 -- 31st in the country
2014: start 5-1 ... finish 9-4 -- 40th in the country
2015: start 5-1 ... finish 8-5 -- 57th in the country
2016: start 3-3 ... finish 4-8 -- 77th in the country
2017: start 4-2 ... finish 7-6 -- 37th in the country
2018: start 4-2 ... finish 8-5 -- 41st in the country
2019: start 4-2 ... finish ??-? -- currently 35th in the country
https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb...-schedule.html
It's been a fun, successful year to date and hopefully will continue to be so.
For this reason, I was not totally happy to see them lose to the U. Good teams seem to play well off a loss...they play with an extra edge. I'd rather UVa come into the Duke game the same way UGa came into the SC game...kinda half asleep.
That said, I think Duke can be good enough to beat them.