The "we waited as long as we could!" Rotation/Minutes thread, 2019-20 Edition

[arnie]

Zion posted a video from practice on IG. It looks like the first unit K has out there for now looked to be Jones, AOC, Moore, Hurt, Carey.

Didn’t realize b-ball practices with head coach present started this early.

[907bluedevils]

Didn’t realize b-ball practices with head coach present started this early.

Official practices started on Tuesday

[Scorp4me]

As is evidenced in this thread the talent is very equivalent. I think this is one year where in each game Coach may only play 7 or 8 guys, but over the course of the season who those 7 or 8 guys are changes. And I don't mean just tinkering in the early season and settling on a core, I mean continuing to change depending on the hot hand or as someone else said who is practicing good. Yes it's frustrating to see talented players sit when everyone predicted a 10 man rotation, but when the players ahead of him are clearly more talented it's understandable. I just don't see that being the case this year.

I'll also say this team is I think better put together than last year. Overall talent level may be less, but they may be a more successful team.

[Matches]

The thing I've taken away from previous years' versions of this thread is that to some extent it is a fool's errand, because we have no way of knowing how injuries will affect folks' MPG. I think most of us would agree, for example, that Tre will play as many minutes as he can handle in competitive games. But what if he misses a few games, as he did last year? We've had significant injuries to key players in six of the last nine seasons (and arguably seven if you consider Bagley's injury in 2018 to be significant) - I'd love it if we had an injury-free season this year but odds are at some point there will be another vigil.

I do think the gap between the presumptive starters and the subs is smaller this year than it was for the last two, so that may work in favor of the subs getting a few more minutes. I also agree that we're likely to see 9-10 guys have individual games where they play a lot of minutes, but not the same guys each game - more or less like last year. As always, though, I don't expect to see more than 6-7 guys on the floor for significant (10+) minutes in competitive games by year's end.

[SkyBrickey]

If true, I'm not surprised to see AOC lining up with the starters. He started a lot of games for us last year and was arguably our best 3-point threat. If he makes a junior year leap with confidence, strength, and stronger defense, he could have a real breakout year and make it tough to take him off the court.

I've always felt like AOC's elite skill was his ability to elevate and shoot a soft, accurate 3-point shot against good defense. If his defender is forced to play tight, denial-like defense, that really opens up driving lanes for Tre, Wendell and others. And it hasn't always translated in his defense, but AOC is highly athletic. Looking forward to seeing his development this year.

[rocketeli]

Minutes examined

I’ve noticed that in any “minutes thread” there are often references to MK “shortening” his bench, with the implication his techniques are something of an outlier or problematic. But without context, this, like any human activity is difficult to correctly interpret. If you were told “there were 100 murders in River City last year”— is this good or bad? You can’t interpret the meaning without more context. Where there 10 or 400 murders the year before? How many murders does River City average? Is the population 10,000 or 10 million? Context is key.

So in terms of murdering minutes I did the following:

I looked at the minutes behavior of the top seven by wins active coaches working the past three years in prestigious men’s basketball programs in a P5 conference. These seven are Mike Krzyzewski, Jim Boeheim, Roy Williams, Bob Huggins, John Calipari, Rick Barnes, and Bill Self.

For each team/coach I looked at average # of players getting 10+ minutes/season, the average # of players getting 10+ in the last three games of the season (which are important and often potentially season ending), W-L numbers, winning percentage, average W-L for the three seasons, ,conference finishes, average conference finish, conference tournaments won, NCAA tournament success for the last three basketball seasons

For NCAA tournament success I used the Rocketeli Relative Satisfaction NCAA Tournament Number (TM not yet applied for)
The RRSNTN attempts to assign a relative degree of satisfaction and pleasure derived by the fans of an elite team based on their team’s performance in the NCAA tournament.
The RRSNTN assigns value points for furthest round reached as follows
Round 1 1 point
Round 2 2 points
Sweet Sixteen 4 points
Elite Eight 8 points
Final Four 16 points
Championship game 32 points
Won NCAA tournament 64 points


Results (note: in the interest of clarity, non-significant numbers are retained at times.)
Key: coach --10+min players each year (average) //average 10+minute players for last three games of season//W-L(percent W) for 3 years//average W-L//conference regular season finishes(average place)//conference tournament championships//NCAA success number

Coach		10'+ (avg)	last 3	W-L (avg)	avg W-L		Conf (avg)	ConfCh	NCAA#
Krzyzewski	8/8/8 (8.0)	6.2	89-25 (.78)	29.7-7.7	3,2,5(3.33)	2	18
Boeheim		9/8/9 (8.67)	6.33	62-43 (.59)	20.7-14.3	6,10,7(7.76)	0	5
Williams	9/7/9 (8.33)	7.33	86-27 (.76)	28.7-9		1,3,1(1.67)	0	70
Huggins		11/9/10 (10)	7.67	69-42 (.62)	23-13.7		10,2,2(4.66)	0	8
Calipari	9/9/8 (8.67)	6.88	88-24 (.79)	29.3-8		2,4,1(2.33)	2	20
Barnes		8/7/11 (8.67)	7.22	73-31 (.70)	24.3-10.3	2,1,9(4.0)	0	6
Self		10/7/8 (8.33)	7.0	88-23 (.79)	29.3-7.7	3,1,1(1.67)	1	24

Obviously, there are some sample size limitations. Both Barnes and Huggins stats are affected by having one terrible year in the past three; Barnes went 16-16 and finished 9th in his conference in 2016-17 and Huggins went 15-21 in 2018-19, finished tenth and ended up bombing out of the CBI. ) Jim Boeheim, on the other hand, has been consistently mediocre the past three years. Time to hang it up?)

In terms of minutes some interesting findings.

1. With the exception of Huggins, who is an outlier, the other six hall of famer type coaches all use a fairly narrow range of 10+ minute players—ranging from 8.0 for Krzyzewski to 8.67 for Boeheim, Calipari and Barnes for the overall season.
2. Everyone “shortens their bench.” Even the outlier Huggins dropped to 7.67 for the last three games and all the others ranged between 6.2 and 7.33. This is even though many of those games were in tournaments with back to back or closely scheduled games.
3. Krzyzewski does have the lowest number for both overall and last three game 10 min+ average players, although it is not a massive difference.
4. Mike Kryzewski and John Calipari are scarily close in terms of performance over the past three seasons, even though Calipari averaged 0.67 more 10min + players in the overall season and last three games
5. On the other hand, Roy Williams did win an NCAA tournament and averaged 7.33 players the last three games versus Kryzewski’s 6.2.
6. Conclusions should be drawn with caution from limited data.
7. But—if you are someone clamoring for a 9 or even 10 player rotation, know that you are not in concordance with the best basketball minds for our generation. Virtually all extremely successful coaches use about 8 to 8 and ¾ players in a rotation over a whole season and 6 and 1/3 to 7 and 1/3 for important games.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Coach K at 6.2 is SIGNIFICANTLY less than everybody else on the board but Boeheim. That's a six man rotation in effect. Everybody else appears to be a full 7 or 8 man rotation. That's a HUGE difference in reality.

[scottdude8]

Minutes examined

I’ve noticed that in any “minutes thread” there are often references to MK “shortening” his bench, with the implication his techniques are something of an outlier or problematic. But without context, this, like any human activity is difficult to correctly interpret. If you were told “there were 100 murders in River City last year”— is this good or bad? You can’t interpret the meaning without more context. Where there 10 or 400 murders the year before? How many murders does River City average? Is the population 10,000 or 10 million? Context is key.

So in terms of murdering minutes I did the following:

I looked at the minutes behavior of the top seven by wins active coaches working the past three years in prestigious men’s basketball programs in a P5 conference. These seven are Mike Krzyzewski, Jim Boeheim, Roy Williams, Bob Huggins, John Calipari, Rick Barnes, and Bill Self.

For each team/coach I looked at average # of players getting 10+ minutes/season, the average # of players getting 10+ in the last three games of the season (which are important and often potentially season ending), W-L numbers, winning percentage, average W-L for the three seasons, ,conference finishes, average conference finish, conference tournaments won, NCAA tournament success for the last three basketball seasons

For NCAA tournament success I used the Rocketeli Relative Satisfaction NCAA Tournament Number (TM not yet applied for)
The RRSNTN attempts to assign a relative degree of satisfaction and pleasure derived by the fans of an elite team based on their team’s performance in the NCAA tournament.
The RRSNTN assigns value points for furthest round reached as follows
Round 1 1 point
Round 2 2 points
Sweet Sixteen 4 points
Elite Eight 8 points
Final Four 16 points
Championship game 32 points
Won NCAA tournament 64 points


Results (note: in the interest of clarity, non-significant numbers are retained at times.)
Key: coach --10+min players each year (average) //average 10+minute players for last three games of season//W-L(percent W) for 3 years//average W-L//conference regular season finishes(average place)//conference tournament championships//NCAA success number

Krzyzewski 8/8/8 (8.0) // 6.2 //89-25 (.78)// 29.7-7.7 //3,2,5(3.33) //2//18
Boeheim 9/8/9 (8.67) //6.33//62-43 (.59)// 20.7-14.3//6,10,7(7.67)//0//5
Williams 9/7/9 (8.33)//7.33//86-27 (.76)// 28.7-9 //1,3,1(1.67) //0//70
Huggins 11/9/10 (10) //7.67//69-42 (.62)// 23-13.7 //10,2,2(4.66)//0//8
Calipari 9/9/8 (8.67) //6.88//88-24(.79)//29.3-8 //2,4,1(2.33) //2//20
Barnes 8/7/11(8.67) //7.22//73-31(.70)//24.3-10.3//2,1,9(4.0 )//0//6
Self 10/7/8 (8.33)//7.0 //88-23 (.79)//29.3-7.7 //3,1,1(1.67)//1//24

Obviously, there are some sample size limitations. Both Barnes and Huggins stats are affected by having one terrible year in the past three; Barnes went 16-16 and finished 9th in his conference in 2016-17 and Huggins went 15-21 in 2018-19, finished tenth and ended up bombing out of the CBI. ) Jim Boeheim, on the other hand, has been consistently mediocre the past three years. Time to hang it up?)

In terms of minutes some interesting findings.

1. With the exception of Huggins, who is an outlier, the other six hall of famer type coaches all use a fairly narrow range of 10+ minute players—ranging from 8.0 for Krzyzewski to 8.67 for Boeheim, Calipari and Barnes for the overall season.
2. Everyone “shortens their bench.” Even the outlier Huggins dropped to 7.67 for the last three games and all the others ranged between 6.2 and 7.33. This is even though many of those games were in tournaments with back to back or closely scheduled games.
3. Krzyzewski does have the lowest number for both overall and last three game 10 min+ average players, although it is not a massive difference.
4. Mike Kryzewski and John Calipari are scarily close in terms of performance over the past three seasons, even though Calipari averaged 0.67 more 10min + players in the overall season and last three games
5. On the other hand, Roy Williams did win an NCAA tournament and averaged 7.33 players the last three games versus Kryzewski’s 6.2.
6. Conclusions should be drawn with caution from limited data.
7. But—if you are someone clamoring for a 9 or even 10 player rotation, know that you are not in concordance with the best basketball minds for our generation. Virtually all extremely successful coaches use about 8 to 8 and ¾ players in a rotation over a whole season and 6 and 1/3 to 7 and 1/3 for important games.

This was a typo. Please tell me this was a typo and no minutes were harmed in the creation of this post ;p

[MarkD83]

Oh what the heck...I'll join in with a different twist

Tre Jones 67 min
Vernon Carey 67 min
Matthew Hurt 66 min
....

[slower]

Jim, I’m excited to see Javin’s upgraded game.

Ah, is THIS the year that Javin "gets it" or "makes the leap"? Keep on dreaming.

[sagegrouse]

Ah, is THIS the year that Javin "gets it" or "makes the leap"? Keep on dreaming.

His "leaps" need to be more judicious, don't you think? Here are minutes per foul stats for returning players:

DeLaurier 6.1
Goldwire 10.0
White 11.2
T. Jones 22.0
O'Connell 26.6

[rocketeli]

Ah, is THIS the year that Javin "gets it" or "makes the leap"? Keep on dreaming.

This. I'm sure Javin is a great guy and a hard worker who wants to be the best he can be, but if he were going to develop soon actual basketball specific skills he most likely would have done so by now.

[Nrrrrvous]

His "leaps" need to be more judicious, don't you think? Here are minutes per foul stats for returning players:

DeLaurier 6.1
Goldwire 10.0
White 11.2
T. Jones 22.0
O'Connell 26.6

That's actually higher than I would have guessed.

[SkyBrickey]

Interesting to see all the negativity around Javin. I’ve watched him improve every single year and he had some stellar games last year. He’s never going to be a major offensive force but he brings a lot to the floor with his defense, rebounding and leadership.

Coach K pointed out in his presser that he got a lot out of testing the NBA waters and had really improved. I expect Carey to play more minutes. I hope he does. I hope he’s that good. But I also expect Javin to have a strong senior year for us, including limiting the fouls playing more within himself.

[slower]

But I also expect Javin to have a strong senior year for us, including limiting the fouls playing more within himself.

I desire it, but I do not expect it. Great kid, but he is what he is, until proven otherwise.

Like a Josh Hairston or Amile Jefferson jumper, or a Demarcus Nelson non-turnover drive into traffic, these are the mythical pots of gold we desire.

[SkyBrickey]

I desire it, but I do not expect it. Great kid, but he is what he is, until proven otherwise.

Like a Josh Hairston or Amile Jefferson jumper, or a Demarcus Nelson non-turnover drive into traffic, these are the mythical pots of gold we desire.

He’s a kid who has gotten better each year at Duke. I expect him to continue to improve. Coach publicly states that he has.

Of course you are free to hate on his game, but I will bet that next season, even you will be wishing we had Javin back for just one more year.

[SkyBrickey]

And in case people have forgotten, last year ended with an L to Mich St but Javin showed up big time with a double-double in 23 minutes. Yes, he is what he is.

[Kedsy]

Ah, is THIS the year that Javin "gets it" or "makes the leap"? Keep on dreaming.

This. I'm sure Javin is a great guy and a hard worker who wants to be the best he can be, but if he were going to develop soon actual basketball specific skills he most likely would have done so by now.

I desire it, but I do not expect it. Great kid, but he is what he is, until proven otherwise.

I have two words for you guys: Brian Zoubek.

I distinctly remember a lot of people on this board saying similar stuff about Mr. Zoubek as is now being said about Javin. Sure, Zoubek and DeLaurier are quite different players, and I admit that Zoubekian transformations are very rare, but Brian Zoubek's junior year production and Javin DeLaurier's junior year production were pretty similar, especially in fouls per 40. Yeah, Z had more points and rebounds, but Javin had more steals and blocks, and higher percentages. Senior year, Zoubek's per minute numbers went up, but for the first 24 games it was difficult to notice because he committed a whopping 8.77 fouls per 40 minutes. Then, starting with the famous Maryland game, everybody noticed the "leap," though his per minute numbers didn't change that much. What changed is he cut his fouls down to 5.97 fouls per 40 over his final 16 games, and that enabled him to stay on the floor and become the legend everyone now remembers.

Will Javin pull a similar trick? Who can say? But can he? Sure. If Brian Zoubek could cut his fouls down from a similar level at the same point in his career, why not Javin? And if Javin can get his minutes into the mid-20s, like Zoubek did his last 16 games, then I see no reason he can't have a Zoubek-like impact (albeit more with elite steals & blocks than with elite offensive rebounding; both guys are/were strong, though differently styled defenders) on Duke's 2020 performance.

Player	eFG%	tS%	usage	pts/40	rebs/40	asts/40	stls/40	blks/40	fls/40
BZ 2009	57.5%	60.9%	16.4	13.7	12.5	1.4	1.4	2.7	6.7
JD 2019	74.7%	71.0%	10.1	9.4	10.7	1.1	2.1	3.2	6.5

[phaedrus]

I have two words for you guys: Brian Zoubek.

I distinctly remember a lot of people on this board saying similar stuff about Mr. Zoubek as is now being said about Javin. Sure, Zoubek and DeLaurier are quite different players, and I admit that Zoubekian transformations are very rare, but Brian Zoubek's junior year production and Javin DeLaurier's junior year production were pretty similar, especially in fouls per 40. Yeah, Z had more points and rebounds, but Javin had more steals and blocks, and higher percentages. Senior year, Zoubek's per minute numbers went up, but for the first 24 games it was difficult to notice because he committed a whopping 8.77 fouls per 40 minutes. Then, starting with the famous Maryland game, everybody noticed the "leap," though his per minute numbers didn't change that much. What changed is he cut his fouls down to 5.97 fouls per 40 over his final 16 games, and that enabled him to stay on the floor and become the legend everyone now remembers.

Will Javin pull a similar trick? Who can say? But can he? Sure. If Brian Zoubek could cut his fouls down from a similar level at the same point in his career, why not Javin? And if Javin can get his minutes into the mid-20s, like Zoubek did his last 16 games, then I see no reason he can't have a Zoubek-like impact (albeit more with elite steals & blocks than with elite offensive rebounding; both guys are/were strong, though differently styled defenders) on Duke's 2020 performance.

Player	eFG%	tS%	usage	pts/40	rebs/40	asts/40	stls/40	blks/40	fls/40
BZ 2009	57.5%	60.9%	16.4	13.7	12.5	1.4	1.4	2.7	6.7
JD 2019	74.7%	71.0%	10.1	9.4	10.7	1.1	2.1	3.2	6.5

All of this may be true, but I don't see Javin intentionally missing a free throw to run the clock out on a national championship. The miss will come naturally.

[SkyBrickey]

CBS Sports mock draft with Tre at 16 and Hurt at 21. Neither Moore nor Carey are in their top 30.

As much as I'd love to have Carey back for his sophomore season, the rumor is that he's now healthy and in great shape. I expect the former #1 prospect in the class to also play with a bit of a chip on his shoulder.

Another note from the mock draft. They have Cole Anthony at #1 and highlight his 43" vertical and MVP award from EYBL where he averaged 27 pts and 8 rebs per game. It's going to be really fun watching him and Tre do battle this year - shaping up to be an epic match-up of strength vs strength when UNC has the ball.