The "we waited as long as we could!" Rotation/Minutes thread, 2019-20 Edition

[scottdude8]

This can of worms already was opened a bit in the thread on Tre Jones' feature in the Athletic, which included quotes that one could interpret as possibly indicating that maybe this is the prophesied year where Coach K plays a consistent 8-9 man rotation (and also hell freezes over, pigs fly, and... no, no, this is a legitimate topic Scott, focus!).

We all know the long history of this type of speculation on the board, and how despite our hopes to the contrary, every year Duke finds a 7 or 7.5 man rotation by the time March rolls around. Who's willing to put their name on the line and say this year will be different?

As I said in the other thread, I still think that there will be a main 7-8 man rotation come the end of the season. BUT, I do think that we have enough experienced/unique players on our bench such that there will come a time where each of them has to play significant minutes in an ACC contest (talking mainly about guys like AOC, JG, and Baker here, as we all assume Tre, the freshmen, and the seniors will be in the 7 man rotation for at least a significant part of the season... obviously whether they all are at the end is another topic entirely). AOC and Baker provide shooting that might be necessary against a certain type of matchup, and we know what JG did against Louisville last year. So while I imagine that the "core 7" will be the only ones consistently playing 10+ MPG come season's end, I would expect that we will have nine players who, at some point or another during ACC season, have a game where they are called into action and play at least 15 minutes.

That's how I'll start the speculation. Let the madness begin.

[JasonEvans]

I will get started by reminding everyone that Joey Baker was quite highly regarded when he was a member of the class of 2019 (#15 in the ESPN rankings). When he moved up to 2018, his ranking understandably suffered and he did not get much playing time last year. While I am sure many folks will peg him for the least number of minutes of the 10 guys who seem likely to get time, I will just say that I think he may surprise a lot of you.

-Jason "Baker was well ahead of Stanley when they were all in the same class together... I believe he was more highly regarded than Wendell Moore too" Evans

[JasonEvans]

I will get started by reminding everyone that Joey Baker was quite highly regarded when he was a member of the class of 2019 (#15 in the ESPN rankings). When he moved up to 2018, his ranking understandably suffered and he did not get much playing time last year. While I am sure many folks will peg him for the least number of minutes of the 10 guys who seem likely to get time, I will just say that I think he may surprise a lot of you.

-Jason "Baker was well ahead of Stanley when they were all in the same class together... I believe he was more highly regarded than Wendell Moore too" Evans

My off-the-top-of-my-head guess at minutes (by position) for this season in competitive games:

PG - Tre 35, Goldwire 5
SG - AOC 25, Stanley 12, Moore 3
SF - Moore 22, Baker 13, White 5
PF - Hurt 23, White 12, DeLaurier 5
C - Carey 27, Delaurier 13

Totals: Tre 35, Carey 27, AOC 25, Moore 25, Hurt 23, DeLaurier 18, White 17, Baker 13, Stanley 12, Goldwire 5

-Jason "as I look at that, it looks wrong... am I on crack thinking we will play 10 guys? Oh well" Evans

[arnie]

My off-the-top-of-my-head guess at minutes (by position) for this season in competitive games:

PG - Tre 35, Goldwire 5
SG - AOC 25, Stanley 12, Moore 3
SF - Moore 22, Baker 13, White 5
PF - Hurt 23, White 12, DeLaurier 5
C - Carey 27, Delaurier 13

Totals: Tre 35, Carey 27, AOC 25, Moore 25, Hurt 23, DeLaurier 18, White 17, Baker 13, Stanley 12, Goldwire 5

-Jason "as I look at that, it looks wrong... am I on crack thinking we will play 10 guys? Oh well" Evans

If Cassius Stanley only gets 12 mpg, he’ll be pissed. Hope you’re way low as we need him to be a player at Duke, not some other school.

[scottdude8]

My off-the-top-of-my-head guess at minutes (by position) for this season in competitive games:

PG - Tre 35, Goldwire 5
SG - AOC 25, Stanley 12, Moore 3
SF - Moore 22, Baker 13, White 5
PF - Hurt 23, White 12, DeLaurier 5
C - Carey 27, Delaurier 13

Totals: Tre 35, Carey 27, AOC 25, Moore 25, Hurt 23, DeLaurier 18, White 17, Baker 13, Stanley 12, Goldwire 5

-Jason "as I look at that, it looks wrong... am I on crack thinking we will play 10 guys? Oh well" Evans

Well, if you're going to up the ante and put together a minutes list, it would be disingenuous of me as the guy who started the thread to not do so as well, haha.

With the caveat that this is how I see things standing at the end of the season, I think it'll look something like this:

PG- Tre 35, Goldwire 5
Wing 1-Stanley 22, AOC 15, Goldwire 3
Wing 2- Moore 22, White 10, Baker 5, Hurt 3
Forward- Hurt 22, White 10, DeLaurier 8
Center- Carey 25, DeLaurier 15

I doubt there will be much differentiation between the SG and SF this year which is why I put it at two "wings", and obviously those are interchangeable (so I view things as there being 80 minutes at the wings for a combo of Stanley, Moore, AOC, White, Goldwire, Baker, and Hurt).

Like Jason, I also think that we're too low on Baker. If I had to predict now this is where it would stand, but it wouldn't surprise me in the least if, say, AOC's and Baker's minutes were swapped (or, more likely, if they both serve a similar role of "spark-plug off-the-bench shooter", and whoever is hotter on a given night gets a majority of their minutes).

It wouldn't surprise me one or both of Stanley and Hurt don't start, but play starters minutes, in order to get more experienced guys (in particular Javin) in the starting lineup, at least in the beginning of the year. Regardless, I think that we'll see Javin and Jack playing 20+ minutes a game throughout the traditional "3-5" slots.

I also think we will see more of Tre and JG on the court together than people are anticipating, especially if Tre's shot develops like I personally expect it to (JG may be a lost cause, but you never know **cough cough** the Kenny Goins example I always point to **cough cough**).

Like Jason, I look at what I just wrote and can't help but think it is going to be spectacularly wrong. But something in my gut just tells me that this is going to be a year where the "starters" are seeing closer to 30 than 40 minutes per game (outside of Tre), hence my low totals. Can't wait to see how wrong I am.

[mattman91]

My off-the-top-of-my-head guess at minutes (by position) for this season in competitive games:

PG - Tre 35, Goldwire 5
SG - AOC 25, Stanley 12, Moore 3
SF - Moore 22, Baker 13, White 5
PF - Hurt 23, White 12, DeLaurier 5
C - Carey 27, Delaurier 13

Totals: Tre 35, Carey 27, AOC 25, Moore 25, Hurt 23, DeLaurier 18, White 17, Baker 13, Stanley 12, Goldwire 5

-Jason "as I look at that, it looks wrong... am I on crack thinking we will play 10 guys? Oh well" Evans

Not bad, but I think Hurt will average much more than 23 points - especially after hearing K's remarks about his defense.

[MChambers]

My off-the-top-of-my-head guess at minutes (by position) for this season in competitive games:

PG - Tre 35, Goldwire 5
SG - AOC 25, Stanley 12, Moore 3
SF - Moore 22, Baker 13, White 5
PF - Hurt 23, White 12, DeLaurier 5
C - Carey 27, Delaurier 13

Totals: Tre 35, Carey 27, AOC 25, Moore 25, Hurt 23, DeLaurier 18, White 17, Baker 13, Stanley 12, Goldwire 5

-Jason "as I look at that, it looks wrong... am I on crack thinking we will play 10 guys? Oh well" Evans

Bad enough that we've got to make predictions about something that involves so many variables and moving parts that predictions are pretty well useless, but now you're adding another: competitive games?

[NSDukeFan]

PG - Jones 29, Goldwire 7, O’Connell 4
SG - O’Connell 14, Stanley 15, Moore 5, Jones 4, Baker 2
SF - Moore 17 White 11, Baker 7, Hurt 5
PF - Hurt 20, DeLaurier 12, White 6, Baker 1, JRob 1,
C- Carey 27, DeLaurier 8, White 2, Hurt 2, JRob 1

Totals:
Jones 33
Carey 27
Hurt 27
Moore 22
Delaurier 20
White 19
O’Connell 18
Stanley 15
Baker 10
Goldwire 7
JRob 2

Things can change during the season, but this is how the coaches should play the team this year, as things stand right now. Since they see the team more often than I do and have had some success, I will allow them some leeway.

[Wahoo2000]

As a non-Duke fan, I'm going to attempt this based on what I've seen Duke do over the last 10ish years (namely, make this a 7-8 man rotation, leaving out 2 guys totally that many of you are *certain* will be contributors, and saying another will play a bit part).

The easy ones (can't find a single reason these guys won't all play in every game assuming good health):
Jones
Delaurier
Carey

Already down to 4 rotation players, and one bit/role player? Yikes.

*Relatively* certain these guys will get regular run:
White (candidate for bit/role player)
Hurt

With 3 players left to squeeze in, looking almost exclusively at wings/non-pg perimeter players. The 3 I'm going with-
O'Connell
Stanley
Moore

I'll put the minutes avg for "close/competitive" games like this:
Jones - 38
Carey - 30
Hurt - 30
O'Connell - 27
Moore - 27
Stanley - 20
Delaurier - 20
White - 8

Ultimately, this leaves Baker and Goldwire as being pretty much "DNP" guys in the biggest/closest games. Reasoning:
Goldwire - Mostly because I'll say that I think Tre will play something like 38 minutes in most of those games, and you can get by without a "PG" for 2 mpg easily by sharing the ballhandling responsibility among the other guards.
Baker - Kind of the same reason I'm saying that I expect that White will be the ".5" guy in the 7.5 man rotation. I think K will chose the younger guy over the guy who has a year in the program but hasn't worked his way into the rotation yet. I think O'Connell played enough last year to be a much more likely contributor, and honestly just expect K to try and get the younger wings out there over Baker.

Could be 110% wrong and it won't surprise me if Baker and/or Goldwire end up in the rotation. What WILL surprise me is if come Feb/March Duke is playing MORE than a 7.5 man rotation. Someone (or maybe 2-3 guys) who EVERYONE expects to contribute *will not* be in the rotation come that part of the year.

[Kedsy]

You guys know I have a formula, that combines recruiting ranking and experience, which I have in the past used to predict "the rotation" (which admittedly means different things to different people). This season, here's what it looks like:

Interior: Vernon Carey (1.0), Javin DeLaurier (1.5), Matthew Hurt (2.0)

Perimeter: Tre Jones (1.5), Alex O'Connell (3.0), Wendell Moore (3.0), Cassius Stanley (3.0), Jack White (3.5), Joey Baker (3.5), Jordan Goldwire (4.0)

To me, the most striking thing about this is how we only have one perimeter player with a "ranking" lower than 3.0. Since the RSCI was invented this has never happened. In fact, going back to at least the year 2000 (as far back as I can go), Duke has never had fewer than three such players.

So, what does that mean? I think it means that with five (maybe six) essentially equivalent players, it's impossible to intelligently guess which perimeter players will break through and be primary rotation players come March. It probably means in the early season we'll see lots of combinations and lots of different guys playing big minutes. As Scottdude suggests, it's quite possible that nine or ten guys will play 15 or 20 minutes in one or more individual games over the course of the season, as K searches for the players he'll use in his end-of-season tight rotation. As such, it's also possible that nine or ten guys will average 8+ or even 10+ mpg over the course of the season (including blowouts, etc.).

All that is not to say that his actual season-ending rotation will be longer than 7 guys, though 8 wouldn't surprise me with the group we have. I'm just saying nobody (not even the coaching staff) has anything more than a wild guess as to who the two or three guys will be that'll be plastered to the bench in March.

[proelitedota]

Tre: 35 min
Cassius: 20 min
Wendell: 20 min
Matthew: 30 min
Vernon: 25 min

JGold: 5 min
AOC: 15 min
Jack White: 25 min
Joey Baker: 5 min
Javin Delaurier: 25 min

[rocketeli]

Clearly order has been restored and now Duke has a plethora of "wings" (SF,SG etc.) to fit into the rotation, as is traditional.
We all know that Jones backed up by Goldwire will play the point, and Carey and Delaurier will be the inside beef but who will play more to the perimeter? White is experienced, but shot, what 1-90 from 3 in the second half of last season? He did much more than any other player to stop Duke from going to the national championship last year. So he has that to overcome. Meanwhile, on a team that desperately needed outside shooting Baker and O'Connell couldn't get on the floor. Will they be better this year? Hurt is a skinny, Stanley is more athletic than skilled, maybe, and maybe Moore will get more minutes. It will be interesting to see if physical maturity and experience rule, or athletic ability and skill take over.

[jimsumner]

Clearly order has been restored and now Duke has a plethora of "wings" (SF,SG etc.) to fit into the rotation, as is traditional.
We all know that Jones backed up by Goldwire will play the point, and Carey and Delaurier will be the inside beef but who will play more to the perimeter? White is experienced, but shot, what 1-90 from 3 in the second half of last season? He did much more than any other player to stop Duke from going to the national championship last year. So he has that to overcome. Meanwhile, on a team that desperately needed outside shooting Baker and O'Connell couldn't get on the floor. Will they be better this year? Hurt is a skinny, Stanley is more athletic than skilled, maybe, and maybe Moore will get more minutes. It will be interesting to see if physical maturity and experience rule, or athletic ability and skill take over.

A bit harsh on Jack White, methinks. His late-season shooting woes caused Duke to drop all the way down to the number one overall seed. Imagine how they could have improved their seed if he had shot better.

He did go scoreless in the loss to Michigan State. Of course, he was injured and played all of three minutes. I guess he should have sucked it up and found a way to give Duke those two points it needed.

[bullettoothtony]

Clearly order has been restored and now Duke has a plethora of "wings" (SF,SG etc.) to fit into the rotation, as is traditional.
We all know that Jones backed up by Goldwire will play the point, and Carey and Delaurier will be the inside beef but who will play more to the perimeter? White is experienced, but shot, what 1-90 from 3 in the second half of last season? He did much more than any other player to stop Duke from going to the national championship last year. So he has that to overcome. Meanwhile, on a team that desperately needed outside shooting Baker and O'Connell couldn't get on the floor. Will they be better this year? Hurt is a skinny, Stanley is more athletic than skilled, maybe, and maybe Moore will get more minutes. It will be interesting to see if physical maturity and experience rule, or athletic ability and skill take over.

Nike did much more than any other player to stop Duke from going to the national championship last year.

[mattman91]

Nike did much more than any other player to stop Duke from going to the national championship last year.

The truth of this post hurts my sole.

[bullettoothtony]

^ lol... good stuff matt!

[SkyBrickey]

The biggest question I think is the usage of AOC vs Stanley vs Baker.

I know we all love Stanley’s athleticism but I expect either AOC or Baker to get heavier rotation minutes because of their superior ability to shoot the 3. If Stanley proves both a better defender and capable of making 3s at a 35% clip then I’ll revise my forecast.

[jimsumner]

The biggest question I think is the usage of AOC vs Stanley vs Baker.

I know we all love Stanley’s athleticism but I expect either AOC or Baker to get heavier rotation minutes because of their superior ability to shoot the 3. If Stanley proves both a better defender and capable of making 3s at a 35% clip then I’ll revise my forecast.

There are a lot of possibilities. If Tre Jones continues to struggle from beyond the arc, then O'Connell and Baker's shooting becomes more important. But suppose Jones becomes a lights-out shooter? Or Moore? Or White recovers his mojo? Then perhaps Stanley becomes a more viable option. Or Moore plays the 2.

I think we'll see lots of lineup experimentation early before Krzyzewski begins his inevitable rotation compression.

And based on what I heard yesterday I do feel confident that one of those experiments will see Carey, DeLaurier and Hurt on the floor at the same time.

Don't know if it will work. That's why it's an experiment. But should be fun to watch.

[Spanarkel]

My off-the-top-of-my-head guess at minutes (by position) for this season in competitive games:

PG - Tre 35, Goldwire 5
SG - AOC 25, Stanley 12, Moore 3
SF - Moore 22, Baker 13, White 5
PF - Hurt 23, White 12, DeLaurier 5
C - Carey 27, Delaurier 13

Totals: Tre 35, Carey 27, AOC 25, Moore 25, Hurt 23, DeLaurier 18, White 17, Baker 13, Stanley 12, Goldwire 5

-Jason "as I look at that, it looks wrong... am I on crack thinking we will play 10 guys? Oh well" Evans

Always enjoy your comments, Jason, but your predicting Javin for only 18 minutes/game seems at least modestly low(, although I have admittedly not come close to challenging for the Minutes Prediction Winner the past several seasons!).

[SkyBrickey]

Jim, I’m excited to see Javin’s upgraded game. And with Carey healthy and slimmed down, plus Hurts ability to defend the wing, I love the idea of seeing that bigger lineup in action. I understand that Carey has a nice outside stroke to create some spacing. I’m sure he would love to play alongside Javin.

I’ve been a close follower of the program for 30+ years and I can’t ever remember there being this many unknowns with such a deep and talented roster heading into the season. That must be fun and energizing for the coaching staff to work to put a championship puzzle together.

One of the challenges will be to keep the odd men out of the rotation positive and motivated. We will need them in a huge way the next season.