Top 5 Movies of Winter 2019

[Acymetric]

Have you seen the trailer for Birds of Prey? I think it could give Gemini Man a run for its money as worst movie of the season.

Yeah, I don't think it has a chance. I'm betting either Bad Boys III or Terminator. Dr. Doolittle maybe as a dark horse.

[DUKIECB]

Yeah, I don't think it has a chance. I'm betting either Bad Boys III or Terminator. Dr. Doolittle maybe as a dark horse.

Bad Boys III has too much competition around it's release date and as I said earlier bet against comic book movies at your own risk no matter how bad they are. Suicide Squad was terrible and did $325 million in the U.S.

[BLPOG]

Yeah, I don't think it has a chance. I'm betting either Bad Boys III or Terminator. Dr. Doolittle maybe as a dark horse.

I pretty much agree, although I chose the Mr. Rogers movie as a dark horse, because, "Why not?" I think everyone could use a little Mr. Rogers these days.

[luburch]

Have you seen the trailer for Birds of Prey? I think it could give Gemini Man a run for its money as worst movie of the season.

...have you seen the Terminator trailer?

[Nick]

...have you seen the Terminator trailer?

The trailer I saw a few months backed looked awful. That plus the recent track record of Terminator movies kept me from picking it. Genisys didn't even clear $100 million domestically.

[JasonEvans]

A few comments on Dark Fate.

Early buzz from the first screenings of Dark Fate is really strong. I keep on reading that it is a "back to basics" film that follows many of the beats and emotions of the first film. I keep reading comparisons to "The Force Awakens" and everyone is saying it is the best Terminator movie since T2. Now, it is worth nothing that all the Terminator movies since T2 have been various shades of godawful but still, this at least looks like it will be better than anything we have seen from that franchise in many years. T3 is at 69% on Rotten Tomatoes (color me shocked that it exceeded 50%) while Salvation is at 33% and Genisys is at 27%.

That said, most estimates I have seen put Terminator: Dark Fate's opening weekend just a little bit south of $40 million. If the strong buzz continues we will likely see that number surge, but it seems unlikely the film will hit $50 million opening weekend. Unless it has great legs (which is fairly rare in the world of sci-fi action sequels), that makes it a longshot to reach our Top 5. You probably need around a $60 mil opening to really be a contender.

-Jason "I'm seeing it next Tuesday and will have a review then" Evans

[PackMan97]

A few comments on Dark Fate.

Early buzz from the first screenings of Dark Fate is really strong. I keep on reading that it is a "back to basics" film that follows many of the beats and emotions of the first film.

It's always a good sign when a studio lets out some very early screenings.

[DU82]

DU82, El Diablo, Jason Evans and myself might have something to say about that. We 4 picked Joker, Frozen, Jumanji, Skywalker and Birds of Prey. I'm thinking comic book movie (yes I know it's DC) will out gun the Terminator. I like my chances.

You picked the same as I did? You're doomed.

[JasonEvans]

You picked the same as I did? You're doomed.

You think you are the curse... ha! I run the damn contest and I have never, ever gone 5-for-5.

This year will not be the first

[Dr. Rosenrosen]

That said, most estimates I have seen put Terminator: Dark Fate's opening weekend just a little bit south of $40 million. If the strong buzz continues we will likely see that number surge, but it seems unlikely the film will hit $50 million opening weekend. Unless it has great legs (which is fairly rare in the world of sci-fi action sequels), that makes it a longshot to reach our Top 5. You probably need around a $60 mil opening to really be a contender.

-Jason "I'm seeing it next Tuesday and will have a review then" Evans

But isn’t that relative to other competitors for, let’s call it, fifth place? What other movie seems to have to potential for the kind of numbers you’re talking about? Please don’t say Birds of Prey - not because I care about the contest but because it just looks so awful. I’m pretty sure I’d lose my mind if forced to listen to Margot Robbie’s insufferable Harley Quinn accent for 15 minutes, let alone an entire movie.

[JasonEvans]

But isn’t that relative to other competitors for, let’s call it, fifth place? What other movie seems to have to potential for the kind of numbers you’re talking about? Please don’t say Birds of Prey - not because I care about the contest but because it just looks so awful. I’m pretty sure I’d lose my mind if forced to listen to Margot Robbie’s insufferable Harley Quinn accent for 15 minutes, let alone an entire movie.

From my vote you can tell that I suspect Birds of Prey to make $200+ mil, but the answer would be that SOMETHING will break out and earn more than $150 mil over the next few months. There are just too many people who go to the movies over the holidays for there not to be 5 films that earn more than $150 million. I think there was one time that the 5th place film in the winter content only made like $165 million but it has generally been more than $200 mil for 5th place every other year.

[JasonEvans]

A few comments on Dark Fate.

Early buzz from the first screenings of Dark Fate is really strong. I keep on reading that it is a "back to basics" film that follows many of the beats and emotions of the first film. I keep reading comparisons to "The Force Awakens" and everyone is saying it is the best Terminator movie since T2. Now, it is worth nothing that all the Terminator movies since T2 have been various shades of godawful but still, this at least looks like it will be better than anything we have seen from that franchise in many years. T3 is at 69% on Rotten Tomatoes (color me shocked that it exceeded 50%) while Salvation is at 33% and Genisys is at 27%.

That said, most estimates I have seen put Terminator: Dark Fate's opening weekend just a little bit south of $40 million. If the strong buzz continues we will likely see that number surge, but it seems unlikely the film will hit $50 million opening weekend. Unless it has great legs (which is fairly rare in the world of sci-fi action sequels), that makes it a longshot to reach our Top 5. You probably need around a $60 mil opening to really be a contender.

-Jason "I'm seeing it next Tuesday and will have a review then" Evans

Uh oh... Dark Fate has debuted on Rotten Tomatoes with a 60 (35 reviews so far, a decent number)... not awful, but not great either.

[Dr. Rosenrosen]

Uh oh... Dark Fate has debuted on Rotten Tomatoes with a 60 (35 reviews so far, a decent number)... not awful, but not great either.

I predict Birds of Prey will debut under 40.

[Dr. Rosenrosen]

Dark Fate now up to 67% on RT.

[JasonEvans]

I know our contest focuses on domestic boxoffice, but I still think it worth noting that Joker has now become the top grossing R-rated film of all-time worldwide.

Raise you hand if you thought Joker would break major boxoffice records.

Oh, and if your hand is raised, you are a liar.

-Jason "Joker expected to top $275 mil in domestic BO this weekend... that's insane (and if you think it won't impact interest in Birds of Prey, you are crazy)" Evans

[Acymetric]

I know our contest focuses on domestic boxoffice, but I still think it worth noting that Joker has now become the top grossing R-rated film of all-time worldwide.

Raise you hand if you thought Joker would break major boxoffice records.

Oh, and if your hand is raised, you are a liar.

-Jason "Joker expected to top $275 mil in domestic BO this weekend... that's insane (and if you think it won't impact interest in Birds of Prey, you are crazy)" Evans

Birds of Prey may get some bump, but it's a totally different movie in a different movie universe. I still expect Birds of Prey to perform poorly.

[CameronBornAndBred]

I know our contest focuses on domestic boxoffice, but I still think it worth noting that Joker has now become the top grossing R-rated film of all-time worldwide.

Raise you hand if you thought Joker would break major boxoffice records.

Oh, and if your hand is raised, you are a liar.

-Jason "Joker expected to top $275 mil in domestic BO this weekend... that's insane (and if you think it won't impact interest in Birds of Prey, you are crazy)" Evans

I was so so so wrong.

And I was also wrong about Maleficient. WTG, Disney! You picked a fine time to tank!

[Nick]

Raise you hand if you thought Joker would break major boxoffice records.

Oh, and if your hand is raised, you are a liar.

-Jason "Joker expected to top $275 mil in domestic BO this weekend... that's insane (and if you think it won't impact interest in Birds of Prey, you are crazy)" Evans

I wrote on page 2 that Joker "seems to have a lot of upside", which is almost the same thing as predicting it would become the highest-grossing R-film of all time, right? Right?

I'll also go on the record as saying that BoP will do poorly, regardless of how well Joker does. The trailers have the look of a bomb.

[JasonEvans]

I just want to say that if I have to lose this year, I hope I lose to Knives Out. Every critic friend I know who saw it at TIFF has raved about it!

New trailer released today:



-Jason "if Wander hits a 5-for-5 with Joker, Star Wars, Jumani, Frozen, and Knives Out it would be truly epic!!!" Evans

[PackMan97]

Well...looks like Malificent 2 is officially bombing. It fell to #2 over the weekend as The Joker retakes #1 on it's fourth week in release.