Top 5 Movies of Winter 2019

[JasonEvans]

If you did not vote for Joker, I'm pretty sure you are going to lose.

-Jason "this movie is going to top $200 mil... easily. It will probably be in the $225-$250 kind of range when all is said and done" Evans

Looking like the full opening weekend number is going to be right around $95 mil. Warner is saying $93.5 mil but most industry insiders seem to think it will be a bit higher. Clearly a massive opening and way better than anyone had projected a week or two ago. Based on typical multiples for a film like this which is well received by fans, Joker will make more than $250 mil at the boxoffice. One report I saw today estimated the it will reach $265 mil when all is said and done.

So, like I said, if you did not vote for it you are almost certainly going to lose... unless we get 5 other winter films that make more than $260 mil, which would be unprecedented and will be especially difficult with Star Wars likely to dominate the market for several weeks at least.

[BD80]

Looking like the full opening weekend number is going to be right around $95 mil. Warner is saying $93.5 mil but most industry insiders seem to think it will be a bit higher. Clearly a massive opening and way better than anyone had projected a week or two ago. Based on typical multiples for a film like this which is well received by fans, Joker will make more than $250 mil at the boxoffice. One report I saw today estimated the it will reach $265 mil when all is said and done.

So, like I said, if you did not vote for it you are almost certainly going to lose... unless we get 5 other winter films that make more than $260 mil, which would be unprecedented and will be especially difficult with Star Wars likely to dominate the market for several weeks at least.

What are the chances it makes the top3?


I hereby file my appeal on the basis that a movie released October 4 should not be included in the Winter 2019 poll. And acquiescence is no bar to my appeal!

[JasonEvans]

What are the chances it makes the top3?

Hmmmmm... I'd say maybe 30%. Star Wars will certainly pass it and it would be quite a surprise if Frozen didn't. I suspect at least one other film will get to the mid-upper 200s.

[YmoBeThere]

I hereby file my appeal on the basis that a movie released October 4 should not be included in the Winter 2019 poll. And acquiescence is no bar to my appeal!

Agreed. It is still in the mid 90s here in San Antonio. Summer is still going strong here...

[PackMan97]

Hmmmmm... I'd say maybe 30%. Star Wars will certainly pass it and it would be quite a surprise if Frozen didn't. I suspect at least one other film will get to the mid-upper 200s.

Jumanji brought in $404million. I think its' a fair bet to break up 200s.

[Nick]

Joker is holding up very well so far. $300MM looks possible.

[Nick]

It's not looking good for Maleficent 2--based on Friday numbers it looks like it will make somewhere between $35-40 million this weekend.

[SouthernDukie]

All I want to know is when the Godzilla vs Kong trailer is going to show up. I'd swallow hard and pay a ticket for Maleficent 2 if I knew I'd see a trailer of the aforementioned 2020 film.

[LegoBatman]

It's not looking good for Maleficent 2--based on Friday numbers it looks like it will make somewhere between $35-40 million this weekend.

So I picked Maleficent 2 and did not pick Joker. With skills like that maybe I should start giving out stock tips or betting on actual horse races.

[JasonEvans]

So, I've been away for a couple weeks but this is a good time for a recap.

As we all know by now, Joker is a mortal lock. It is now at $250 mil and seems like it will get to $300 mil before all is said and done. If you are not among the 65% who voted for Joker then your hopes of going-for-5 are done.

Meanwhile, Maleficent's $36.9 mil opening means it will not be a player in the contest. Similarly, Zombieland 2's $26.8 mil opening rule it out of contention. 40% of us voted for Mal while another 10% were in on Zombies. I have not looked to see how many Joker folks were in the Zombie and Maleficent camp, but it feels like a pretty decent percentage of the pool has been eliminated before we even hit November.

-Jason "I have missed so many movie screenings being out of town... ugh!" Evans

[Acymetric]

So, I've been away for a couple weeks but this is a good time for a recap.

As we all know by now, Joker is a mortal lock. It is now at $250 mil and seems like it will get to $300 mil before all is said and done. If you are not among the 65% who voted for Joker then your hopes of going-for-5 are done.

Meanwhile, Maleficent's $36.9 mil opening means it will not be a player in the contest. Similarly, Zombieland 2's $26.8 mil opening rule it out of contention. 40% of us voted for Mal while another 10% were in on Zombies. I have not looked to see how many Joker folks were in the Zombie and Maleficent camp, but it feels like a pretty decent percentage of the pool has been eliminated before we even hit November.

-Jason "I have missed so many movie screenings being out of town... ugh!" Evans

I can't believe that many people voted for Maleficent.

[BD80]

I can't believe that many people voted for Maleficent.

It's like they were under a spell …


I wish I had the same excuse for overlooking Joker

[PackMan97]

I can't believe that many people voted for Maleficent.

It might have had something to do with the alluring $70 million opening and $240 million box office total from 5 years ago...just a guess

That and the lack of a really strong #5 on my list.

[BD80]

Don't mean to pile on those that picked Gemini Man, but here is an amusing article:

https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/...160000505.html

"After some positive first reactions that praised the "breathtaking" special effects, the overall reviews weren't anywhere near as kind and saw Ang Lee record his worst-ever Rotten Tomatoes score with 25%.

That's only Will Smith's eighth-worst, mind."

Ouch. Doesn't bode well for Bad Boys 8.

[Acymetric]

It might have had something to do with the alluring $70 million opening and $240 million box office total from 5 years ago...just a guess

That and the lack of a really strong #5 on my list.

Yeah, but it was a shiny new thing back then. I'm not sure there was really anyone clamoring for a follow-up.

[Dr. Rosenrosen]

Five of us (including moi) picked Joker, Dark Fate, Frozen, Jumanji and Skywalker. With Gemini flopping and Maleficent struggling, I’m feeling like this group has a good chance of going 5 for 5. Seems like it may all hinge on whether folks want to see Linda and Arnold do their thing one last time.

[PackMan97]

Yeah, but it was a shiny new thing back then. I'm not sure there was really anyone clamoring for a follow-up.

well, I don't want a Jumanji 3, a Star Wars 11, Frozen 2, DCEU 8 & 9 (and don't tell me Joke is not in the EU, I don't care), Zombie Land 2, Bad Boy 3...but here they are!

[DUKIECB]

Five of us (including moi) picked Joker, Dark Fate, Frozen, Jumanji and Skywalker. With Gemini flopping and Maleficent struggling, I’m feeling like this group has a good chance of going 5 for 5. Seems like it may all hinge on whether folks want to see Linda and Arnold do their thing one last time.

DU82, El Diablo, Jason Evans and myself might have something to say about that. We 4 picked Joker, Frozen, Jumanji, Skywalker and Birds of Prey. I'm thinking comic book movie (yes I know it's DC) will out gun the Terminator. I like my chances.

[BD80]

... it may all hinge on whether folks want to see Linda and Arnold do their thing one last time.

Last time?

Last time?

If the movie clears $200M, they'll be calling it a reboot of the series. Throw in the special effects from Gemini Man, and we'll have Ahnold and Linda doing prequels!

[Dr. Rosenrosen]

DU82, El Diablo, Jason Evans and myself might have something to say about that. We 4 picked Joker, Frozen, Jumanji, Skywalker and Birds of Prey. I'm thinking comic book movie (yes I know it's DC) will out gun the Terminator. I like my chances.

Have you seen the trailer for Birds of Prey? I think it could give Gemini Man a run for its money as worst movie of the season.