FB Bowl Predictions 2019/20

[Reilly]

You're leaving out potential slots in the Fiesta Bowl and the Peach Bowl, both of which line up ahead of the pool of six and included SEC teams last year; and even within that pool of six, the top remaining SEC team is most likely destined for Tampa.

The Fiesta and Peach are the CFB playoff semifinal slots. 'Bama to one of those.

[Stray Gator]

The Fiesta and Peach are the CFB playoff semifinal slots. 'Bama to one of those.

Of course, I was looking at last year's lineup. For this season, you could swap those two for the Cotton Bowl and Orange Bowl as potential slots for SEC teams not in the CFP, along with the Sugar Bowl (which takes the SEC runner-up) and the Citrus Bowl.

[Reilly]

Of course, I was looking at last year's lineup. For this season, you could swap those two for the Cotton Bowl and Orange Bowl as potential slots for SEC teams not in the CFP, along with the Sugar Bowl (which takes the SEC runner-up) and the Citrus Bowl.

Right -- and McMurphy accounted for all that, by picking LSU to the Sugar and UGA to the Cotton and Auburn to the Citrus ... which possibly leaves no place for even a high-achieving UF team but the pool of six which includes the Belk.

Who are you going to displace to give UF a slot?

Championship – Jan. 13 (CFP semifinal winners)
Projection: Alabama vs. Ohio State

Semifinals
Peach Bowl – Dec. 28 (CFP semifinal)
Projection: Alabama (CFP No. 1) vs. Clemson (CFP No. 4)

Fiesta Bowl – Dec. 28 (CFP semifinal)
Projection: Ohio State (CFP No. 2) vs. Oklahoma (CFP No. 3)


New Year’s 6 bowls

Rose Bowl – Jan. 1 (Big Ten vs. Pac-12)
Projection: Wisconsin vs. Oregon

Sugar Bowl – Jan. 1 (Big 12 vs. SEC)
Projection: Texas vs. LSU

Orange Bowl – Jan. 1 (ACC vs. SEC/Big Ten/Notre Dame)
Projection: Wake Forest vs. Notre Dame

Cotton Bowl – Dec. 28 (at-large vs. Group of 5*)
Projection: Georgia vs. Boise State*

Other Bowls

Citrus Bowl – (Big Ten vs. SEC)
Projection: Michigan vs. Auburn

You cannot displace a WFU or Boise St due to other selecting rules.

[Stray Gator]

Right -- and McMurphy accounted for all that, by picking LSU to the Sugar and UGA to the Cotton and Auburn to the Citrus ... which possibly leaves no place for even a high-achieving UF team but the pool of six which includes the Belk.

Who are you going to displace to give UF a slot?

Championship – Jan. 13 (CFP semifinal winners)
Projection: Alabama vs. Ohio State

Semifinals
Peach Bowl – Dec. 28 (CFP semifinal)
Projection: Alabama (CFP No. 1) vs. Clemson (CFP No. 4)

Fiesta Bowl – Dec. 28 (CFP semifinal)
Projection: Ohio State (CFP No. 2) vs. Oklahoma (CFP No. 3)


New Year’s 6 bowls

Rose Bowl – Jan. 1 (Big Ten vs. Pac-12)
Projection: Wisconsin vs. Oregon

Sugar Bowl – Jan. 1 (Big 12 vs. SEC)
Projection: Texas vs. LSU

Orange Bowl – Jan. 1 (ACC vs. SEC/Big Ten/Notre Dame)
Projection: Wake Forest vs. Notre Dame

Cotton Bowl – Dec. 28 (at-large vs. Group of 5*)
Projection: Georgia vs. Boise State*

Other Bowls

Citrus Bowl – (Big Ten vs. SEC)
Projection: Michigan vs. Auburn

You cannot displace a WFU or Boise St due to other selecting rules.

Let's back up to the post that launched this discussion, which posited: "A 9-10 win Florida in the Belk Bowl? I don't see it." At present, Florida has lost one game, to LSU, but has a win over Auburn. If you're projecting Georgia and Alabama and LSU to be the top 3 teams from the SEC, then I think it's unlikely that Auburn, which still has to play all three of those teams, would finish ahead of Florida. Of course, it's possible that Florida loses two more games, while Auburn finishes with only two losses by beating two of LSU and Georgia and Alabama. Even if that happens and Florida falls to the "pool of six," however, I doubt that the Gators with a 10-2 or 9-3 record would end up in Charlotte at the Belk Bowl, unless the Belk Bowl gets to select its teams before the Outback Bowl in Tampa or the TaxSlayer Gator Bowl in Jacksonville.

These projections, like those posted by media commentators, are all a matter of speculation. In college football, unexpected things can and often do happen. Like the poster to whom you initially responded, I don't foresee a Florida team that manages to finish with 9 or 10 wins playing in the Belk Bowl; but if the cards fall a certain way, it's possible.

[Reilly]

Let's back up to the post that launched this discussion, which posited: "A 9-10 win Florida in the Belk Bowl? I don't see it." At present, Florida has lost one game, to LSU, but has a win over Auburn. If you're projecting Georgia and Alabama and LSU to be the top 3 teams from the SEC, then I think it's unlikely that Auburn, which still has to play all three of those teams, would finish ahead of Florida. Of course, it's possible that Florida loses two more games, while Auburn finishes with only two losses by beating two of LSU and Georgia and Alabama. Even if that happens and Florida falls to the "pool of six," however, I doubt that the Gators with a 10-2 or 9-3 record would end up in Charlotte at the Belk Bowl, unless the Belk Bowl gets to select its teams before the Outback Bowl in Tampa or the TaxSlayer Gator Bowl in Jacksonville.

These projections, like those posted by media commentators, are all a matter of speculation. In college football, unexpected things can and often do happen. Like the poster to whom you initially responded, I don't foresee a Florida team that manages to finish with 9 or 10 wins playing in the Belk Bowl; but if the cards fall a certain way, it's possible.

I agree the projections are a matter of speculation. I've found, from watching over the years, that Brett McMurphy knows more than most and takes the projections seriously and is quite informed.

With respect to your statement about the Belk/Outback/Gator picking first ... the link in one of the posts above says the Conference, in consultations with the bowls and the schools, places the teams. So, it's a negotiated something or other and not a case of one picking before another, it seems.

Perhaps I was misinterpreting the post that launched the discussion -- I was reading between the lines to interpret the post as saying, in effect, "there's no way a top 10-ish SEC team with 9-10 wins ends up in the Belk Bowl (or something similar)." And I'm simply pointing out that due to the number of terrific SEC teams, and due to the NY6 tie-ins where an ACC team will be in the Orange Bowl and a Group of 5 team will be in a NY6 bowl yada yada, it seems there *will* be a situation where a top 10-ish SEC team with 9+ wins is pushed down to that next tier.

Here are the current espn power rankings and projected wins:

#1 Alabama - 11.9 projected wins
#4 LSU - 10.6 projected wins
#6 UGA - 9.8 projected wins
#10 Auburn - 9.0 projected wins
#12 UF - 9.4 projected wins

Not everybody is going to New Orleans (or something equivalent).

[devildeac]

I agree the projections are a matter of speculation. I've found, from watching over the years, that Brett McMurphy knows more than most and takes the projections seriously and is quite informed.

With respect to your statement about the Belk/Outback/Gator picking first ... the link in one of the posts above says the Conference, in consultations with the bowls and the schools, places the teams. So, it's a negotiated something or other and not a case of one picking before another, it seems.

Perhaps I was misinterpreting the post that launched the discussion -- I was reading between the lines to interpret the post as saying, in effect, "there's no way a top 10-ish SEC team with 9-10 wins ends up in the Belk Bowl (or something similar)." And I'm simply pointing out that due to the number of terrific SEC teams, and due to the NY6 tie-ins where an ACC team will be in the Orange Bowl and a Group of 5 team will be in a NY6 bowl yada yada, it seems there *will* be a situation where a top 10-ish SEC team with 9+ wins is pushed down to that next tier.

Here are the current espn power rankings and projected wins:

#1 Alabama - 11.9 projected wins
#4 LSU - 10.6 projected wins
#6 UGA - 9.8 projected wins
#10 Auburn - 9.0 projected wins
#12 UF - 9.4 projected wins

Not everybody is going to New Orleans (or something equivalent).

Fats, is that you?

[Devilwin]

" The hen is the wisest animal in Creation, for she never cackles til the egg is laid." A.Lincoln

Fun to speculate, but a bit early to be handing out bids..lol

[budwom]

" The hen is the wisest animal in Creation, for she never cackles til the egg is laid." A.Lincoln

Fun to speculate, but a bit early to be handing out bids..lol

Indeed...I think it will be a real accomplishment to get to six wins this year...it's not going to be easy. winning at least one of the next two is pretty critical, but i'm not confident about the UVA game at all...i think CFN hits the nail pretty much on the head:

https://collegefootballnews.com/2019...e-preview-2019

[Papa John]

Indeed...I think it will be a real accomplishment to get to six wins this year...it's not going to be easy. winning at least one of the next two is pretty critical, but i'm not confident about the UVA game at all...i think CFN hits the nail pretty much on the head:

https://collegefootballnews.com/2019...e-preview-2019

I think we get to 6 by beating Syracuse and Miami. To me, the question is whether (and how far) we can get beyond 6. I think Wake, UNC, and UVa are pretty even match ups, but ND is likely a loss.

[Reilly]

espn fpi rank / SRS rank / Sagarin rank - TEAM - current record (projected wins per espn)

3/3/4 - CU - 7-0 (12.7)

45/34/44 - WF - 6-1 (8.6)

----------------------------------

11/10/12 - ND - 5-1 (10.1)

30/33/31 - VA - 5-2 (8.8)
55/45/45 - PT - 5-2 (8.0)
71/89/71 - VT - 5-2 (6.7)*

50/44/50 - DU - 4-3 (6.1)
60/49/61- LV - 4-3 (6.2)
68/70/72- BC - 4-3 (5.2)
69/82/75 - ST - 4-3 (5.8)

36/41/42 - FS - 3.4 (6.1)
39/40/48 - NC - 3-4 (6.3)
41/59/54 - UM - 3-4 (5.8)
66/58/64 - SU - 3-4 (4.9)

100/112/89 - GT - 2-5 (3.2)

* = 2 FCS wins

http://www.espn.com/college-football...cs/teamratings

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb...9-ratings.html

http://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm

Right now, espn FPI is predicting 9 ACC teams will reach the 6 wins (w/ only one FCS win) necessary:

CU 12+

ND 10+

VA 8+
WF 8+
PT 8

NC 6+
LV 6+
DU 6+
FS 6+

Left out: GT, Syr, Mia, State, BC, VT

Bottom line: beat the hell out of Carolina, and all is right in the Duke football world ...

[Reilly]

Duke/Auburn in Charlotte: https://watchstadium.com/news/brett-...-8-10-21-2019/

[budwom]

Unless the offense gets a major infusion of energy juice and logic, we'll be watching bowls on TV...

[Reilly]

Yahoo: Duke/KY in Charlotte: https://sports.yahoo.com/bowl-projec...132333423.html

[duke2x]

I'm not confident we will see the Belk Bowl given the large number of state schools projected at 6-6, but I will cheer for that outcome so I can go. I can only hope that the ACC Network would consider pushing our BC basketball start time back past 6:00 so I can attend both.

I think you can cross the following bowl destinations off our list:
Tampa (12/23). We are not required to go here because exams end on 12/18.
Indy (12/26). 2018. We would be passed over unless we are the default last pick.
Detroit (12/26). 2017. See Indy Bowl.
All NY6 and NYD. 3 losses should leave us on the outside looking in.

That leaves the following:
Orlando (12/28). This is a long shot as it's the 2nd pick for the ACC/ND.
All "Tier I": This is still a stretch at 7-5, but we would be candidates for all 4, including the Sun Bowl. GRRRRRREEAT! Music City is technically supposed to pick ACC, but they are allowed to swap with the Gator/Tax.

DC (12/27). They don't like us for some reason even though DC is a top 5 alumni base and halfway between #1 and #2. They passed over Daniel Jones last year for a Nothingbowl.
Dallas SERVPRO (12/30) or Birmingham (1/2). I think one of these is our likely destination at 5-7/6-6/even 7-5.

[Reilly]

... Dallas SERVPRO (12/30) or Birmingham (1/2). I think one of these is our likely destination ...

Is SERVPRO in the mix for this 2019 season? This indicates in mix in 2020: https://www.firstresponderbowl.com/n...ts-for-2020-25

This indicates not in 2019: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E...all_bowl_games

This one is confusing, as SERVPRO is not on the graphic or the first list, but does make it into second list: http://theacc.com/sports/2019/4/24/FB_0424195142.aspx

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Unless the offense gets a major infusion of energy juice and logic, we'll be watching bowls on TV...

...and we will know that with several weeks left to play....

[Reilly]

CBS: Cincy/Duke in Birmingham Jan 2 -- https://www.cbssports.com/collegefoo...ls/predictions

[Reilly]

espn: Navy/Duke - Tampa - December 23 at 2:30 pm

espn: Nebraska/Duke - Detroit - December 26 at 8 pm (later than last Detroit trip)

https://www.espn.com/college-footbal...wl-projections

[duke2x]

Is SERVPRO in the mix for this 2019 season? This indicates in mix in 2020: https://www.firstresponderbowl.com/n...ts-for-2020-25
This indicates not in 2019: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E...all_bowl_games
This one is confusing, as SERVPRO is not on the graphic or the first list, but does make it into second list: http://theacc.com/sports/2019/4/24/FB_0424195142.aspx

espn: Navy/Duke - Tampa - December 23 at 2:30 pm

I got SERVPRO from your post above. ESPN doesn't spend much time with these, but I stick to my point about Tampa and finals.

The ACC could have 7-8 teams at 6-6, which probably breaks down as follows for us:
Run the table at 8-4 (5-3) is DC or higher.
7-5 Birmingham with a chance of something higher.
6-6 Birmingham, non-ACC Bowl, or none.
5-7 None. I don't think 5-7 goes bowling this year based on the FBS standings.

[Devilwin]

I think 6-6 is going to be the best we can do, and that may be hard to accomplish. I don't see us beating ND or Wake, and that being the case we cannot afford a slip up against Miami or Syracuse. We could very easily lose all four games.