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  1. #61
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    Quote Originally Posted by richardjackson199 View Post
    It looks like lines are opening as Va Tech -6.5 to -7 point favorites. My pie bet proposal was in response to folks using stats to say that Duke should be a slight favorite. I just could not believe that Duke would really be a favorite to win this game. It's too early in the season for those stats to be as meaningful.

    If Kedsy disagrees, then Kedsy is right. My pie bet proposal was purely based on my eye test and recency bias for every time I've watched us play Va Tech since they joined the conference. Bad way to gamble, I know. But that's the beauty of gambling. Anybody can have a theory and anybody can put their money or their pie where their mouth is. And you don't have to be remotely right to win or lose. But it helps to be lucky.
    yeah, too early for Sagarin to mean anything...line opened at VT -7, now -5...I wouldn't bet either way on this game, but for those who think Duke should be favored, here's an opportunity.

  2. #62
    Quote Originally Posted by richardjackson199 View Post
    It looks like lines are opening as Va Tech -6.5 to -7 point favorites. My pie bet proposal was in response to folks using stats to say that Duke should be a slight favorite. I just could not believe that Duke would really be a favorite to win this game. It's too early in the season for those stats to be as meaningful.
    Well, you weren't going to get any takers on that once I had weighed in that VT was going to be the favorite. One might dare to bet richardjackson but probably not richardjackson backed by Troublemaker's point spread opinion ;-)

    Quote Originally Posted by budwom View Post
    yeah, too early for Sagarin to mean anything...line opened at VT -7, now -5...I wouldn't bet either way on this game, but for those who think Duke should be favored, here's an opportunity.
    My instinct -- and it's pure instinct as I don't really know football -- tells me Duke is the right side / the sharp side / a good bet / will cover this spread. But yeah, it was basically impossible for VaTech to not be favored.

  3. #63
    Quote Originally Posted by Troublemaker View Post
    ... My instinct ... tells me Duke ... will cover this spread ...
    FWIW, the various Hokies I know (long-time fans; season-ticket holders; the kind of folks who travel to BC for the opener) are more despondent about their team than I can ever recall.

  4. #64
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    Quote Originally Posted by Troublemaker View Post
    Well, you weren't going to get any takers on that once I had weighed in that VT was going to be the favorite. One might dare to bet richardjackson but probably not richardjackson backed by Troublemaker's point spread opinion ;-)



    My instinct -- and it's pure instinct as I don't really know football -- tells me Duke is the right side / the sharp side / a good bet / will cover this spread. But yeah, it was basically impossible for VaTech to not be favored.
    I was counting on the dare to bet richardjackson factor! I know how to lose some pie bets. I bet on the Warriors last year to win the playoffs and subsequently almost every all-star on their team ruptured a major lower extremity connective tissue.

    Somebody agrees with you on Duke being the sharp side. Just today the line has already been bet down from Open -7 points to now consensus Va Tech -2.5.

    Go Duke! I just hope we find a way to win. It would be huge.

  5. #65
    Quote Originally Posted by richardjackson199 View Post
    ... the line has already been bet down from Open -7 points to now consensus Va Tech -2.5 ...
    Holy Moly.

    That is the largest, quickest drop in a betting line that I've ever seen. This afternoon, it was VT -6.5, and I texted many VT fans I know praying that the line would 'only' be bet down to VT -4 by the time I could engage a legal establishment on my way to the game game next Friday ... and just hours later it is VT -2.5 ...

    http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-...cfm/team/duke

  6. #66
    Now hearing things about the VT QB and a walking boot ...

  7. #67
    Join Date
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    Here is a link to a Duke-VT preview from a VT guy. His writing style is out there but he has a really good feel for VT football and some interesting takes.

  8. #68
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    Quote Originally Posted by whereinthehellami View Post
    Here is a link to a Duke-VT preview from a VT guy. His writing style is out there but he has a really good feel for VT football and some interesting takes.
    ouch, a dollar to anyone who can read all of that...the drop in the line really is impressive...let's hope our OL puts on a better show than they did last year...DBs as well...

  9. #69
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    Quote Originally Posted by Reilly View Post
    Now hearing things about the VT QB and a walking boot ...
    He was hurt at end of Furman game. The back up QB played at least one series. My memory cannot recall the details.
    Bob Green
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  10. #70
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    Feb 2007
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    Defensive End TyJuan Garbutt expected to be back on the field against Duke:

    https://www.roanoke.com/sports/colle...18560997d.html

    Defensive Coordinator Bud Foster on Garbutt:

    Ty arguably might have been one of our top four or five guys defensively going into the season. Heís fast. Heís physical. I think he will bring some element of pass rush and toughness.
    VegasInsider composite odds currently have VT -3 with the Over/Under set at 56. If I was betting, I would take the Under because I have faith in our defense.
    Bob Green
    DBR Survivor Football Champion
    2010 & 2016

  11. #71
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bob Green View Post
    He was hurt at end of Furman game. The back up QB played at least one series. My memory cannot recall the details.
    This article says Willis was out of the game because he had the wind knocked out of him:

    https://www.roanoke.com/sports/colle...d38578669.html

    Virginia Tech quarterback Hendon Hooker did make a brief appearance handing off to Tre Turner when Willis had the wind knocked out of him after a 5-yard run in the fourth quarter.
    Bob Green
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  12. #72
    Quote Originally Posted by Bob Green View Post
    VegasInsider composite odds currently have VT -3 with the Over/Under set at 56. If I was betting, I would take the Under because I have faith in our defense.
    Agree, 56 looks kinda fluffy for the O/U
    Don't waste your time on House of Cards S6!
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  13. #73
    scottdude8's Avatar
    scottdude8 is offline Contributor, Zoubek disciple, and resident Wolverine
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    It's worth noting that right now every team in the ACC Coastal besides Virginia and UNC (and us, who haven't played a conference game yet) already have a conference loss. Moreover, we're lucky enough to avoid Clemson and Florida State (I know they're down, but they still have talent) in intra-division play. Combine that with UNC's loss to App State, and you'd have to think that if we win Friday we'll be the primary competition to Virginia in the division. That's a lot to play for.
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  14. #74
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    Quote Originally Posted by HereBeforeCoachK View Post
    Agree, 56 looks kinda fluffy for the O/U
    I think it's reasonable. VT's FBS averages are 30 and 26. They have two good data points in ODU and BC. We remain unknown at this point. The only comparable ACC team to AL is Clemson, which is miles ahead of the 13 dwarfs, and MTSU is a step below ODU and BC.

    I do agree we probably have to hold VT under 30 to win this one.

  15. #75
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    Quote Originally Posted by scottdude8 View Post
    It's worth noting that right now every team in the ACC Coastal besides Virginia and UNC (and us, who haven't played a conference game yet) already have a conference loss. Moreover, we're lucky enough to avoid Clemson and Florida State (I know they're down, but they still have talent) in intra-division play. Combine that with UNC's loss to App State, and you'd have to think that WHEN we win Friday we'll be the primary competition to Virginia in the division. That's a lot to play for.
    FIFY

  16. #76
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    Quote Originally Posted by duke2x View Post
    I do agree we probably have to hold VT under 30 to win this one.
    At this point, I have a high degree of confidence in our defense. Dismissing the Alabama game, because they have a Heisman Trophy Candidate QB and four future NFL receivers, the defense has allowed 15.5 points per game so I am looking for us to hold Virginia Tech to around 20 points. The offense has been explosive in two wins but the VT defense will be a step up over NC A&T and MTSU so we will score less than the 43 points per game we averaged in those two wins.

    I'm expecting a total points somewhere in the 40s, perhaps less, so the Under looks good.

    And just for the fun of it I'll predict: Duke 24, Virginia Tech 14.
    Bob Green
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  17. #77
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    Winston Salem, NC

    Duke-VT line!

    I think the line came down because of "Danny Dimes" game yesterday. The odds makers finally agreed Duke and Coach Cut are QB whisperers. Harris to go for 4 TDs and 300+ yards against VT.

    GoDuke!

  18. #78
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    Quote Originally Posted by duke2x View Post
    I think it's reasonable. VT's FBS averages are 30 and 26. They have two good data points in ODU and BC. We remain unknown at this point. The only comparable ACC team to AL is Clemson, which is miles ahead of the 13 dwarfs, and MTSU is a step below ODU and BC.

    I do agree we probably have to hold VT under 30 to win this one.
    Last year we could have held them to 15 and still lost. We need a vastly improved performance this year.

  19. #79
    ....as an aside, Hunter Johnson, who transferred to NW from Clemson (and was recruited by Duke) is listed as one of three prominent busts this season by ESPN...
    Don't waste your time on House of Cards S6!
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  20. #80
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    VT surrendered 34 PPG in non-Duke FBS games.
    First and foremost, this was a bad matchup last year. That could still exist this year.
    It was a perfect storm. Jones had just returned from injury, and VT was motivated from a humiliating loss to ODU (for them). This won't repeat.

    I save predictions for the end of the week. I'm not confident in this one, but it's not unreasonable.

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