Dorian

[BLPOG]

Does it ever reach the point of relieving the issuing authority of the duty to rescue those that ignore the evacuation order? Think of the lives of rescuers put at risk by people too stupid to get out of the way of mother nature.

If people believe they can rely on rescuers, they are already screwing up. As to "relief of duty"...I'm not touching that, because I'd have to delve into political subjects. As I said before though, it is sometimes the case that the people who stay do most of the rescuing. It's highly contextual. Some people are irresponsible or unwise in staying. Sometimes they aren't. Sometimes they don't have much choice one way or another. It's not right to paint them all as wrong or as fools.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

If people believe they can rely on rescuers, they are already screwing up. As to "relief of duty"...I'm not touching that, because I'd have to delve into political subjects. As I said before though, it is sometimes the case that the people who stay do most of the rescuing. It's highly contextual. Some people are irresponsible or unwise in staying. Sometimes they aren't. Sometimes they don't have much choice one way or another. It's not right to paint them all as wrong or as fools.

A lot of people who stay are long timers, third or fourth generation...and they know more about how to gauge these things than the people issuing the evac order. We tend to evacuate Beaufort, and did this time, but knew it likely wasn't necessary. Another factor is there is a tendency of governments and media outlets to over play these things leading into them.

[JasonEvans]

Another factor is there is a tendency of governments and media outlets to over play these things leading into them.

Elected officials would always rather be safe than sorry. If you don't issue an evacuation order and a bad storm hits then you get blamed for lives being lost, which is fatal for a political career. If you do order an evacuation and the storm misses your community, I doubt folks fault you for being overly cautious with their lives.

Of course, the practice impact of that is people largely ignore evac orders. Oh well...

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

A lot of people who stay are long timers, third or fourth generation...and they know more about how to gauge these things than the people issuing the evac order. We tend to evacuate Beaufort, and did this time, but knew it likely wasn't necessary. Another factor is there is a tendency of governments and media outlets to over play these things leading into them.

This is definitely part of it. Also, to evacuate Ocracoke means you leave your house (sometimes generational home, as noted), your business (likewise), and friends behind undefended, for no idea how long. You can't just roll back in two days later and assess the damage.

The fact that 800 of 950 people stayed tells you it's not simply ignorant stubborness. It's part of their culture. They ride out the storms. By nature of where they live they are an independent and self-reliant community. To say they are being stupid or not listening to those who knlw better doesn't recognize how unique their situation is. I would challenge any of you to hop on a boat and abandon everything in your life, no knowing if you will ever see it again.

Sorry if this comes off as preachy in any way. I'm sure you can tell, I really like that damn island.

[tteettimes]

this is definitely part of it. Also, to evacuate ocracoke means you leave your house (sometimes generational home, as noted), your business (likewise), and friends behind undefended, for no idea how long. You can't just roll back in two days later and assess the damage.

The fact that 800 of 950 people stayed tells you it's not simply ignorant stubborness. It's part of their culture. They ride out the storms. By nature of where they live they are an independent and self-reliant community. To say they are being stupid or not listening to those who knlw better doesn't recognize how unique their situation is. I would challenge any of you to hop on a boat and abandon everything in your life, no knowing if you will ever see it again.

Sorry if this comes off as preachy in any way. I'm sure you can tell, i really like that damn island.

amen brother...amen,!!!

[Acymetric]

Elected officials would always rather be safe than sorry. If you don't issue an evacuation order and a bad storm hits then you get blamed for lives being lost, which is fatal for a political career. If you do order an evacuation and the storm misses your community, I doubt folks fault you for being overly cautious with their lives.

Of course, the practice impact of that is people largely ignore evac orders. Oh well...

This happens with school closings as well. It seems to come in cycles for both. Don't close/evacuate and bad things end up happening (whether they were foreseeable or not) and then you start seeing overly cautious closings for years. Then gradually that memory fades and people start going "why do we keep closing schools for this crap?" and less cautious is used. Eventually after some more years another bad thing happens and the cycle repeats.

[Indoor66]

This happens with school closings as well. It seems to come in cycles for both. Don't close/evacuate and bad things end up happening (whether they were foreseeable or not) and then you start seeing overly cautious closings for years. Then gradually that memory fades and people start going "why do we keep closing schools for this crap?" and less cautious is used. Eventually after some more years another bad thing happens and the cycle repeats.

Isn't there something somewhere about lessons of history and doomed to repeat?

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Isn't there something somewhere about lessons of history and doomed to repeat?

yep, the "Boy Who Cried Wolf" comes to mind....

[aimo]

This is definitely part of it. Also, to evacuate Ocracoke means you leave your house (sometimes generational home, as noted), your business (likewise), and friends behind undefended, for no idea how long. You can't just roll back in two days later and assess the damage.

The fact that 800 of 950 people stayed tells you it's not simply ignorant stubborness. It's part of their culture. They ride out the storms. By nature of where they live they are an independent and self-reliant community. To say they are being stupid or not listening to those who knlw better doesn't recognize how unique their situation is. I would challenge any of you to hop on a boat and abandon everything in your life, no knowing if you will ever see it again.

Sorry if this comes off as preachy in any way. I'm sure you can tell, I really like that damn island.

I contacted the owners of Captain's Landing, my favorite place to stay, directly on Silver Lake. Heard back that they did get off the island, but it wasn't clear if it was before or after the storm. They know that the hotel seems to have been spared, but the cottage, office, gift shop, vehicles, etc, plus their own home were hit by the storm surge. And the water is badly polluted. These folks are from old island families, too. Haven't heard about Pony Island, yet. Best biscuits in town.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

I contacted the owners of Captain's Landing, my favorite place to stay, directly on Silver Lake. Heard back that they did get off the island, but it wasn't clear if it was before or after the storm. They know that the hotel seems to have been spared, but the cottage, office, gift shop, vehicles, etc, plus their own home were hit by the storm surge. And the water is badly polluted. These folks are from old island families, too. Haven't heard about Pony Island, yet. Best biscuits in town.

Thanks for the update. I have emailed folks there, but I'm sure they have more pressing issues.

[wavedukefan70s]

Elected officials would always rather be safe than sorry. If you don't issue an evacuation order and a bad storm hits then you get blamed for lives being lost, which is fatal for a political career. If you do order an evacuation and the storm misses your community, I doubt folks fault you for being overly cautious with their lives.

Of course, the practice impact of that is people largely ignore evac orders. Oh well...

Hurricane floyd ruined governor hodges in sc 1999.people were stuck on i 26 for 8 hrs .people were threatening to shoot his helicopter diwn as it flew over .it soon disappeared.poor little old ladys having to use the restroom on the highway it was a nightmare.if it would have hit people on i 26 woukd have been at floyds mercy.i grabbed a road atlas made it to Tennessee in 9 hrs .all governors since reverse lanes and evacuate early. No access to 95 you go to columbia then disperse .very few exits are open.

A cat 1 or 2 im staying put .a low 3 too. any higher im leaving.


Dorian only took some drip edge and my fence .i feel blessed .the bahamas need all the help they can get.

[Acymetric]

Hurricane floyd ruined governor hodges in sc 1999.people were stuck on i 26 for 8 hrs .people were threatening to shoot his helicopter diwn as it flew over .it soon disappeared.poor little old ladys having to use the restroom on the highway it was a nightmare.if it would have hit people on i 26 woukd have been at floyds mercy.i grabbed a road atlas made it to Tennessee in 9 hrs .all governors since reverse lanes and evacuate early. No access to 95 you go to columbia then disperse .very few exits are open.

A cat 1 or 2 im staying put .a low 3 too. any higher im leaving.


Dorian only took some drip edge and my fence .i feel blessed .the bahamas need all the help they can get.

Only 8 hours? People back then were such snowflakes.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Hurricane floyd ruined governor hodges in sc 1999.people were stuck on i 26 for 8 hrs .people were threatening to shoot his helicopter diwn as it flew over .it soon disappeared.poor little old ladys having to use the restroom on the highway it was a nightmare.if it would have hit people on i 26 woukd have been at floyds mercy.i grabbed a road atlas made it to Tennessee in 9 hrs .all governors since reverse lanes and evacuate early. No access to 95 you go to columbia then disperse .very few exits are open.

A cat 1 or 2 im staying put .a low 3 too. any higher im leaving.


Dorian only took some drip edge and my fence .i feel blessed .the bahamas need all the help they can get.

But... A different swing, and you and Ocracoke could have swapped situations. Hurricanes are so unpredictable.

[budwom]

In the Lucky Break category, the mayor of Surf City (biggest town on Topsail Island) has noted that not only was damage minimal, but the storm waves hit the beach at precisely the right angle so that most oceanfront homeowners actually found
bonus sand at the bottom of their stairs to the beach...generally an extra step or two on the stairs.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

In the Lucky Break category, the mayor of Surf City (biggest town on Topsail Island) has noted that not only was damage minimal, but the storm waves hit the beach at precisely the right angle so that most oceanfront homeowners actually found
bonus sand at the bottom of their stairs to the beach...generally an extra step or two on the stairs.

Amazing. Take the shape of the NC coast (which is very complex) and throw in circular systems that can hit a 50 different angles...and you understand why no two events are alike...

[budwom]

Amazing. Take the shape of the NC coast (which is very complex) and throw in circular systems that can hit a 50 different angles...and you understand why no two events are alike...

Topsail has a distinctly NE to SW orientation, which is a bit unusual...

[dudog84]

I knew Pilkey pretty well, Geology was a small department back then. Interesting guy. I thought about studying further under him, but felt it was important to go to another university for grad school. He was way ahead of most people on this stuff, wrote or co-authored a bunch of books on the entire Atlantic and Gulf coasts, the Living with the Shore series. He was working on "The Beaches are Moving" while I was there. I'll never forget him explaining that a few-hour storm event would move much more sand than months (even years) of waves and tides. Was counter-intuitive at the time to me, geology had seemed like the long slow drip of time. But it makes sense if you think not just of storms but of landslides, earthquakes, floods, etc. and the movement of materials.

Re the call for evacuations, the authorities have to err on the side of caution. Dorian had me freaked out, I was in the cone for days (and direct line twice) as it spun at 150+ mph. Zoom in on the track around the Bahamas and shortly after. If it didn't hang around the Bahamas for so long, and then zig around a bit as it went almost due north after leaving the islands, I would have taken a pretty severe beating. And North Carolina would have probably been spared.

https://google.org/crisismap/google.com/2019-dorian

[wavedukefan70s]

Only 8 hours? People back then were such snowflakes.

I should have been more descriptive. I mean like 8 hrs and never went 40 miles.
If they got that far.it got to the point.that people were cutting through the sides of the interstates returning home.i 95 was a parking lot due to Florida's and georgias evacuation.
I believe it may have been the largest peace time evacuation in the united states.either way south Carolina was not prepaired .very fortunate the storm missed us .it could have cost us a lot of lives.
Once my son is out of school and on his own .ill head inland a ways.maybe around mt airy area.

[Kdogg]

Hurricane floyd ruined governor hodges in sc 1999.people were stuck on i 26 for 8 hrs .people were threatening to shoot his helicopter diwn as it flew over .it soon disappeared.poor little old ladys having to use the restroom on the highway it was a nightmare.if it would have hit people on i 26 woukd have been at floyds mercy.i grabbed a road atlas made it to Tennessee in 9 hrs .all governors since reverse lanes and evacuate early. No access to 95 you go to columbia then disperse .very few exits are open.

Hodges royally messes up with the late evacuation order but McMaster is messing up by calling them too early. Two years in a row he’s called for the order one to two days too early. This year it was just stupid to call for evacuation on Labor. There were literally hundreds of thousand of tourists up and down the coast of South Carolina who were leaving at the end of the holiday anyway. No need to add locals onto the already crowded under built coastal roadways.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Finally got word from a friend on Ocracoke last night. She says it's so much worse than she has ever seen there (since the 70s) and worse than she thought possible.