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Thread: Dorian

  1. #1
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Northwest NC

    Dorian

    Well here we go again. Dorian is currently causing trouble for Puerto Rico but hopefully not very much damage as it is barely even a tropical storm at this point. However, with each passing model run the trend is worsening and right now the central east coast of Florida is in the crosshairs. With the 11:00 update from the NHC they are now forecasting landfall of a Cat 3 major hurricane which is remarkable because just last night it was only forecast to barely be a hurricane at all at landfall. Furthermore, the write up says this is still below where the latest models have it intensity wise and may need to be adjusted upward as time goes on. Here's the latest track:

    Dorian.jpg
    "The future ain't what it used to be."

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Dec 2014
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    I'd tell ya, but then I'd have to kill ya
    Quote Originally Posted by DUKIECB View Post
    Well here we go again. Dorian is currently causing trouble for Puerto Rico but hopefully not very much damage as it is barely even a tropical storm at this point. However, with each passing model run the trend is worsening and right now the central east coast of Florida is in the crosshairs. With the 11:00 update from the NHC they are now forecasting landfall of a Cat 3 major hurricane which is remarkable because just last night it was only forecast to barely be a hurricane at all at landfall. Furthermore, the write up says this is still below where the latest models have it intensity wise and may need to be adjusted upward as time goes on. Here's the latest track:

    Dorian.jpg
    I got a bad feeling about this one last night. I'm in the crosshairs at the moment, and it's always kinda weird wishing the destruction on someone else. What I mean is, you hope it veers off somewhere else in the cone.

    It's not barely a tropical storm at Puerto Rico. It was up to 70 mph, which is right below hurricane (74).

  3. #3
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    Northwest NC
    Quote Originally Posted by dudog84 View Post
    It's not barely a tropical storm at Puerto Rico. It was up to 70 mph, which is right below hurricane (74).
    Sorry I was looking at Erin's wind speeds when I typed that. And I just checked the 2:00 update and it's now officially a hurricane. Poor Puerto Rico. I feel for those folks. Hopefully damage is light.
    "The future ain't what it used to be."

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Dec 2014
    Location
    I'd tell ya, but then I'd have to kill ya
    Quote Originally Posted by DUKIECB View Post
    Sorry I was looking at Erin's wind speeds when I typed that. And I just checked the 2:00 update and it's now officially a hurricane. Poor Puerto Rico. I feel for those folks. Hopefully damage is light.
    No worries. You're in NW North Carolina. I'm 3 miles from the ocean. I pay pretty close attention to these things.

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Feb 2011
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    Summerville ,S.C.
    Quote Originally Posted by dudog84 View Post
    I got a bad feeling about this one last night. I'm in the crosshairs at the moment, and it's always kinda weird wishing the destruction on someone else. What I mean is, you hope it veers off somewhere else in the cone.

    It's not barely a tropical storm at Puerto Rico. It was up to 70 mph, which is right below hurricane (74).
    We are suppose to travel to viera to play football next Friday. Im doubtful it will happen.to be honest a lot of our players are worried about the wellbeing
    Of you guys in that area.been through a few hurricanes here in Charleston. Not very fun.
    Im hoping that if its bad maybe we can get a few truckloads of supplies and run them down there.was going there anyway why not help out.
    Best wishes to you all in that area.

  6. #6
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Northwest NC
    The 11:00 am update from the hurricane center just came out and Dorian is now forecast to make landfall as a Cat 4 hurricane. Obviously a lot can change between now and Monday but this is horrible news. There is still a ton of uncertainty after 72 hours and even though the bullseye is on the central east coast of FL right now really anywhere between Miami and Jacksonville should really be watching this closely. Fingers crossed it never makes it to Cat 3 or 4 and/or the models swing and miss and it makes a hard right turn in the next few days.
    "The future ain't what it used to be."

  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by DUKIECB View Post
    Sorry I was looking at Erin's wind speeds when I typed that. And I just checked the 2:00 update and it's now officially a hurricane. Poor Puerto Rico. I feel for those folks. Hopefully damage is light.
    The good news for Puerto Rico is that Dorian just grazed the island. The bad news for Florida is that it didn't run over the mountains and island as expected, which is why we are now seeing the forecasts jump up in strength. Original models had a track over Puerto Rico causing some disorganization and weakening it before hitting warmer waters. No such luck for the east coast.

  8. #8
    Join Date
    Mar 2016
    Location
    The Beach

    I've been following

    I've been following Dorian (https://spaghettimodels.com/) and the forecast is getting closer on when it makes impact but after that, it's all over the place.

    Does it run up the coast a la Matthew and create issues for the Carolinas and VA? Does it cross into the gulf and hit the panhandle? Does it make a full impact with central Florida and run over Orlando as a Cat 1 and then turn north and go up through the middle of GA, SC, NC, and VA ?

    All these scenarios are what stresses me out living on the coast and potentially being in its path. All that said, anyone who is in Florida and in the immediate path, good luck in the coming days!

  9. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by BeachBlueDevil View Post
    I've been following Dorian (https://spaghettimodels.com/) and the forecast is getting closer on when it makes impact but after that, it's all over the place.

    Does it run up the coast a la Matthew and create issues for the Carolinas and VA? Does it cross into the gulf and hit the panhandle? Does it make a full impact with central Florida and run over Orlando as a Cat 1 and then turn north and go up through the middle of GA, SC, NC, and VA ?

    All these scenarios are what stresses me out living on the coast and potentially being in its path. All that said, anyone who is in Florida and in the immediate path, good luck in the coming days!
    On the other hand, part of the reason the models are diverging is that it's predicted to slow way down around the time of landfall. That opens a wider window of uncertainty for subsequent path, but makes it much more likely that it will be a far weaker storm while moving along said path.

    Sucks for the folks near the point of landfall, though. Not looking wonderful for folks in St. Lucie County at the moment.

  10. #10
    Every minute it does not turn west means about a mile further north for landfall. I expect landfall at about Melbourne or above.

  11. #11
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Chesapeake, VA.
    And here I thought this thread was going to be about music theory.
    A plane takes off from Baltimore and touches down on Bourbon Street

  12. #12
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
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    Undisclosed
    Quote Originally Posted by rsvman View Post
    And here I thought this thread was going to be about music theory.
    I thought it was going to be about portraits.
    1991 -- 1992 -- 2001 -- 2010 -- 2015

  13. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap View Post
    I thought it was going to be about portraits.
    You must spread some Comments around before commenting on OldPhiKap again.

  14. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by Indoor66 View Post
    Every minute it does not turn west means about a mile further north for landfall. I expect landfall at about Melbourne or above.
    No. Latest update is Martin County landfall. Each update over the last day has been a little farther south. Current track will be bad for Palm Beach County. Any farther south will be a major concern for South Florida.

  15. #15
    Join Date
    Dec 2014
    Location
    I'd tell ya, but then I'd have to kill ya
    Quote Originally Posted by wavedukefan70s View Post
    We are suppose to travel to viera to play football next Friday. Im doubtful it will happen.to be honest a lot of our players are worried about the wellbeing
    Of you guys in that area.been through a few hurricanes here in Charleston. Not very fun.
    Im hoping that if its bad maybe we can get a few truckloads of supplies and run them down there.was going there anyway why not help out.
    Best wishes to you all in that area.
    Good man (or woman). As the projected track shifts south I have been taken out of the crosshairs, but I still expect 50+ mph winds. And it could easily be worse.

    I predict this will be the costliest storm to ever hit the U.S. It's very big and will be very slow moving once it hits Florida, probably in a swath from Ft. Lauderdale/West Palm Beach to Orlando/Tampa and beyond. Michael was a monster last year but hit a relatively sparsely populated area and moved through quickly. This is gonna tear the heart out of Florida.

    Hope I'm wrong.

    P.S. Have been in the same city for 30 years. This will be the third hit on my area in 4 years. I love it here, but may be time to move.
    Last edited by -jk; 08-30-2019 at 06:34 AM. Reason: lang

  16. #16
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Northwest NC
    This afternoons models have significantly altered. Almost all are now saying Dorian will stall out and head north before the eye reaches the Florida coast. This of course puts GA, SC and NC in play. These things are a nightmare to forecast.
    "The future ain't what it used to be."

  17. #17
    Quote Originally Posted by DUKIECB View Post
    This afternoons models have significantly altered. Almost all are now saying Dorian will stall out and head north before the eye reaches the Florida coast. This of course puts GA, SC and NC in play. These things are a nightmare to forecast.
    You sure? The latest NHC map I saw (admittedly, the 2 PM) has it making landfall just south of the Martin/Palm Beach County line.

  18. #18
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Northwest NC
    Quote Originally Posted by BLPOG View Post
    You sure? The latest NHC map I saw (admittedly, the 2 PM) has it making landfall just south of the Martin/Palm Beach County line.
    Yeah the hurricane center is usually slow to completely abandon their forecast when there are significant shifts like this and rightfully so. They did made an eastward adjustment at the 5pm update but won't make any knee jerk reactions until they have more data to substantiate the more eastward track.

  19. #19
    Join Date
    Dec 2014
    Location
    I'd tell ya, but then I'd have to kill ya
    In the crosshairs again. #$&%@!!!!

    Track, please keep moving, this time away from me!

  20. #20
    Well, as of 8:00 A.M. Dorian is projected as staying off the Fla GA coast headed north... Watch out SC and NC.

    Dorian.jpg

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