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  1. #161
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    Quote Originally Posted by bundabergdevil View Post
    True but Trump savaged him pretty good and painted him as a weak-kneed traitor to a red base. It hurt, otherwise I'm assuming Sessions would have run away from the field for the reasons you state above.

    But I'll say this about Tuberville: football.
    And on cue, Trump blasts Sessions, at least a little bit, on Twitter this morning.

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/...81043881299969
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  2. #162
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Undisclosed
    Quote Originally Posted by bundabergdevil View Post
    True but Trump savaged him pretty good and painted him as a weak-kneed traitor to a red base. It hurt, otherwise I'm assuming Sessions would have run away from the field for the reasons you state above.

    But I'll say this about Tuberville: football.
    Tuberville will certainly win half the state, and have half the state vote against him. It's an Iron Bowl election between those two.
    "We're only tourists in this life
    Only tourists but the view is nice"

    -- David Byrne

  3. #163
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Durham, NC
    This isn't congressional, but maybe it can be used for some local election discussion as well?

    Just thought it was interesting (and maybe historic?) that the Durham County Board of Commissioners is now 100% female. Looking at the existing construction, it was already 80% female (4 women, 1 man) so maybe it has happened before and isn't a surprise but I just thought it was interesting/a tad surprising.

    It also feels really weird that of the 5 elected the highest % of votes received was 15% (with 2 others receiving 13% and the remaining 2 receiving 12%). Feels like a really ineffective way to fill a board that represents the will of most people in the county, but maybe that's the best way. Is this a place where ranked voting would be really useful (with 15 candidates vying for 5 spots in a race)? It also seems like a race where a lot of voters are going to be thoroughly uninformed.

  4. #164
    Join Date
    Feb 2018
    Location
    Durham, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by Acymetric View Post
    It also feels really weird that of the 5 elected the highest % of votes received was 15% (with 2 others receiving 13% and the remaining 2 receiving 12%). Feels like a really ineffective way to fill a board that represents the will of most people in the county, but maybe that's the best way. Is this a place where ranked voting would be really useful (with 15 candidates vying for 5 spots in a race)? It also seems like a race where a lot of voters are going to be thoroughly uninformed.
    I suspect there is a lot of under-voting in these sorts of multi-selection races. You have to be paying attention and have confidence when you make your five selections on one section of the ballot. I would guess there are a lot of people who only vote for one.

  5. #165
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Vermont
    have we noted that Steve Bullock is reversing course and now is preparing to run for the Senate from Montana? No small thing, this.

  6. #166
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    PPP has new polls in some key senate races. The news for GOP incumbents is not good.

    The Democratic pollster has Sara Gideon leading Susan Collins 47-43 in Maine, Mark Kelly leading Martha McSally 47-42 in Arizona, Cal Cunninham ahead of Thom Tillis in NC by 46-41, and John Hickenlooper crushing Cory Gardner 51-38 in Colorado. I think most pundits expect Gardner to lose anyway, but the other results are stronger than many had expected in these states.

    Their key finding in Maine is that Susan Collins has really been hurt by impeachment:

    The Maine result is most interesting. When PPP first polled the Gideon-Collins match up for a private client last spring, Collins led by 18 points at 51-33. The reason for the 22 point shift since then is that in the wake of opposing impeachment, Collins has lost most of the crossover Democratic support she’s relied on for her success over the years. Last April Collins had a 32% approval rating with Hillary Clinton voters, and trailed Gideon only 59-28 with them head to head. Now she has just a 9% approval rating with Clinton voters, and trails Gideon 81-10 with them head to head.
    -Jason "with Doug Jones likely to go down in Alabama, these four seats may hold the key to control of the Senate (though Dems think Ga and Iowa are also in play)" Evans
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  7. #167
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    New Bern, NC unless it's a home football game then I'm grilling on Devil's Alley
    I'm really interested in the Kentucky race. It appears to be neck and neck between McGrath and McConnell, with each at around 43%.
    Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."

  8. #168
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Location
    Outside Philly
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    And on cue, Trump blasts Sessions, at least a little bit, on Twitter this morning.

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/...81043881299969
    You call that a little bit?!?! He questions Sessions' manhood and said, oh by the way, you're dumb, too! Remind me to stay on your good side.

    Quote Originally Posted by budwom View Post
    have we noted that Steve Bullock is reversing course and now is preparing to run for the Senate from Montana? No small thing, this.
    Yes, his course reversal puts Montana in play and improves the potential routes to Democrat Senate equity or majority. Certainly no guarantee in deep red Montana but he's a strong, strong candidate for obvious reasons.

  9. #169
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    6 miles from Heaven, 10 miles from Hell
    Quote Originally Posted by Phredd3 View Post
    I suspect there is a lot of under-voting in these sorts of multi-selection races. You have to be paying attention and have confidence when you make your five selections on one section of the ballot. I would guess there are a lot of people who only vote for one.
    It’s the way they report the voting in multiple candidate elections. If I understand correctly, the 15% is of the TOTAL ‘votes cast in the election. If you add up all the percentages reported, they should total 100% (sans rounding. I just added up the numbers reported by the N&O and it was 99.99%) But each voter got five votes each. So, the true percentage would be closer if you multiplied by 5. So the leading candidate received votes from about 73.65% of the democrats voting.

    (Not exact, since as you pointed out not everybody votes for five candidates.)

  10. #170
    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Location
    North of Durham
    I think this is as good a place as any for this: given how split the country is, gerrymandering and redistricting is a huge issue in determining our leadership. The Supreme Court basically punted it back to the states recently, rather than giving national guidance on the issue. Both parties are guilty of it, though it has been more egregious in some states (such as North Carolina) than others.

    The Democrats now have a full majority in Virginia and could have used it as an opportunity to redistrict in 2021 to strengthen their hold. Instead, several Democrats joined with all of the Republicans to support a measure delegating redistricting to a bipartisan committee. This apparently happened a few weeks ago but I just read an op-ed in the NY Times on it (I am posting the news story, rather than the op-ed).

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/06/u...stricting.html

  11. #171
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    New Bern, NC unless it's a home football game then I'm grilling on Devil's Alley
    Money doesn't equate to wins, of course, but it usually does equate to enthusiasm. Kentuckyians seem to be enthusiastic for Amy McGrath.
    Hours after McConnell's campaign reported raising nearly $7.5 million in the quarter, McGrath upped the ante. She reported taking in $12.8 million during the same period. She's dramatically ahead of fundraising by other Democrats vying to challenge McConnell this November.
    https://www.yahoo.com/news/mcconnell...132714560.html
    Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."

  12. #172
    Join Date
    Feb 2018
    Location
    Durham, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by CameronBornAndBred View Post
    Money doesn't equate to wins, of course, but it usually does equate to enthusiasm. Kentuckyians seem to be enthusiastic for Amy McGrath.


    https://www.yahoo.com/news/mcconnell...132714560.html
    The article doesn't specify the source of contributions, but I suspect that a lot McGrath's contributions come from out of state. Dems nationwide are very keen to get rid of McConnell. Folks in state may well be enthusiastic, too, but I'd be cautious about using fundraising as a proxy for enthusiasm in this particular race. Polling still suggests that McConnell is in the lead, albeit narrowly.

  13. #173
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Undisclosed
    (sorry wrong thread)
    Last edited by OldPhiKap; 04-08-2020 at 07:34 AM.
    "We're only tourists in this life
    Only tourists but the view is nice"

    -- David Byrne

  14. #174
    Join Date
    Dec 2014
    Location
    I'd tell ya, but then I'd have to kill ya
    Quote Originally Posted by Phredd3 View Post
    The article doesn't specify the source of contributions, but I suspect that a lot McGrath's contributions come from out of state. Dems nationwide are very keen to get rid of McConnell. Folks in state may well be enthusiastic, too, but I'd be cautious about using fundraising as a proxy for enthusiasm in this particular race. Polling still suggests that McConnell is in the lead, albeit narrowly.
    Uh huh, and all of McConnell's money comes from in-state. Sheesh.

  15. #175
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Location
    Outside Philly
    Quote Originally Posted by dudog84 View Post
    Uh huh, and all of McConnell's money comes from in-state. Sheesh.
    According to the below, you’re right, BOTH receive almost all of their small donor contributions from out of state. Mitch at 90% and Amy at 96%.


    https://www.opensecrets.org/news/2020/04/mcconnell-falls-kentucky-small-donors-flock-to-mcgrath/

  16. #176
    Join Date
    Feb 2018
    Location
    Durham, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by dudog84 View Post
    Uh huh, and all of McConnell's money comes from in-state. Sheesh.
    And how does that affect the main point, which, to refresh your memory, was that fund-raising in this particular race is not such a good proxy for voter enthusiasm? Shall I "sheesh", now, too?

  17. #177
    Join Date
    Dec 2014
    Location
    I'd tell ya, but then I'd have to kill ya
    Wow. This thread had dropped to the 4th page. Over a month since the last post.

    Anyways, there's a lot of polling out today about the 2(!) Senate races in Georgia.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/

    My instant takeaway from the polls is that incumbent R Loeffler (she's the one who dumped a bunch of stocks earlier this year after a coronavirus briefing) is very unpopular. That bodes poorly for any other pols that did the same (Burr-NC is getting a lot of press but he's not up this year, and I think there were a couple more).

    Can somebody please explain how this is going to work? My rudimentary understanding: States never have both Senate seats up at the same time, but somebody is retiring (or maybe it was Loeffler got appointed). Georgia also has a jungle primary, right? So are both seats being contested at the same time, or are they doing one seat and then everybody that didn't make the top 2 go for the second seat? Or does the pol have to say which seat he/she is vying for? Thanks in advance to anyone who can unravel this.

    P.S. to Georgians...After your fun governor's race, and throw in the Presidential race which is currently tied (4 polls this month, 2 for Biden, 2 for Trump, neither with a lead greater than 2 points), this should be a hoot.

  18. #178
    The other seat is a normal election. Loefflers seat is a jungle primary with top 2 advancing if no one gets 50%. This is my best recollection but happy to be corrected if anything is wrong.

  19. #179
    Quote Originally Posted by dudog84 View Post
    Wow. This thread had dropped to the 4th page. Over a month since the last post.

    Anyways, there's a lot of polling out today about the 2(!) Senate races in Georgia.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/

    My instant takeaway from the polls is that incumbent R Loeffler (she's the one who dumped a bunch of stocks earlier this year after a coronavirus briefing) is very unpopular. That bodes poorly for any other pols that did the same (Burr-NC is getting a lot of press but he's not up this year, and I think there were a couple more).

    Can somebody please explain how this is going to work? My rudimentary understanding: States never have both Senate seats up at the same time, but somebody is retiring (or maybe it was Loeffler got appointed). Georgia also has a jungle primary, right? So are both seats being contested at the same time, or are they doing one seat and then everybody that didn't make the top 2 go for the second seat? Or does the pol have to say which seat he/she is vying for? Thanks in advance to anyone who can unravel this.

    P.S. to Georgians...After your fun governor's race, and throw in the Presidential race which is currently tied (4 polls this month, 2 for Biden, 2 for Trump, neither with a lead greater than 2 points), this should be a hoot.
    The two senate seats are being contested as separate races.

    In one, Senator David Perdue's term is up, and he's running for reelection. There is an ongoing primary (early voting has started) to select an opponent. Prominent candidates include former congressional candidate Jon Ossoff and Teresa Tomlinson, mayor of Columbus, GA. Perdue and the Democratic candidate will then face off in November.

    In the other, there is an election for the remainder of former-Senator Johnny Isakson's term. Kelly Loeffler was appointed by the governor and is running to retain the seat. There is no primary election for this race--it will be a jungle primary, meaning all candidates will be on the November ballot. Others running are Republican Congressman Doug Collins, and Democrats Raphael Warnock (pastor of MLK's old church), Ed Tarver (former state senator and US Attorney) and Matt Lieberman (son of Joe Lieberman). The most likely outcome here is that no candidate garners 50% of the vote, so the top two candidates will go to a runoff. Then, whoever wins the runoff will get to serve two years before the term expires and there's another election in 2022 for a new six-year term.

  20. #180
    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Location
    North of Durham
    Quote Originally Posted by Truth&Justise View Post
    The two senate seats are being contested as separate races.

    In one, Senator David Perdue's term is up, and he's running for reelection. There is an ongoing primary (early voting has started) to select an opponent. Prominent candidates include former congressional candidate Jon Ossoff and Teresa Tomlinson, mayor of Columbus, GA. Perdue and the Democratic candidate will then face off in November.

    In the other, there is an election for the remainder of former-Senator Johnny Isakson's term. Kelly Loeffler was appointed by the governor and is running to retain the seat. There is no primary election for this race--it will be a jungle primary, meaning all candidates will be on the November ballot. Others running are Republican Congressman Doug Collins, and Democrats Raphael Warnock (pastor of MLK's old church), Ed Tarver (former state senator and US Attorney) and Matt Lieberman (son of Joe Lieberman). The most likely outcome here is that no candidate garners 50% of the vote, so the top two candidates will go to a runoff. Then, whoever wins the runoff will get to serve two years before the term expires and there's another election in 2022 for a new six-year term.
    The game theory by the Dems in determining which seat to run for is fascinating. Could the Dem who loses the primary for Perdue's seat then hop over to run for the other seat?

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