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  1. #61
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    Does anyone know the filing deadline for the GA Senate Special Election? More importantly, will whoever loses the primary for the regular senate seat have enough time to get on the ballot for the "jungle primary" that is the special election?

    -Jason "Joe Liberman's son is running as a Democrat... not too many fond feelings about Joe among Democrats that I know these days" Evans
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  2. #62
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
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    New Bern, NC unless it's a home football game then I'm grilling on Devil's Alley
    Pulling this from the Presidential Election thread since my follow up is more fitting here.

    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    So, I happened to be reading an article about GOP support for Trump and how conservatives who oppose him are just not saying they are part of the GOP any longer when I came across this really interesting stat.

    There were 241 Republicans in the U.S. House in early 2017, at the start of Trumpís tenure. Since then, more than a quarter have either been defeated at the ballot box, in last Novemberís elections (29), or retired (36).
    I just found that to be a fairly remarkable number.
    I think that this statement is mostly true; all of the retiring Republicans are in districts that there is very little worry about flipping to Blue.
    I've yet to see one that is getting out that was in any hotly contested races prior to their retirement. Not to say that it isn't a remarkable stat, because it totally is, I just don't expect it to sway in the Democrats favor.
    Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."

  3. #63
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    Feb 2007
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    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    Quote Originally Posted by CameronBornAndBred View Post
    I think that this statement is mostly true; all of the retiring Republicans are in districts that there is very little worry about flipping to Blue.
    I've yet to see one that is getting out that was in any hotly contested races prior to their retirement. Not to say that it isn't a remarkable stat, because it totally is, I just don't expect it to sway in the Democrats favor.
    Those numbers included retirements prior to the 2018 congressional election, in which some of the retirees were in districts that flipped. That said, you are right that the current retirements seem to be fairly safe districts for the GOP... but considering how badly Dems whupped the Republicans in the House in 2018 (53.4-44.8 in the national congressional vote), there just aren't that many really competitive GOP-held districts left.
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  4. #64
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
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    Durham, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by CameronBornAndBred View Post
    Pulling this from the Presidential Election thread since my follow up is more fitting here.



    I think that this statement is mostly true; all of the retiring Republicans are in districts that there is very little worry about flipping to Blue.
    I've yet to see one that is getting out that was in any hotly contested races prior to their retirement. Not to say that it isn't a remarkable stat, because it totally is, I just don't expect it to sway in the Democrats favor.
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Those numbers included retirements prior to the 2018 congressional election, in which some of the retirees were in districts that flipped. That said, you are right that the current retirements seem to be fairly safe districts for the GOP... but considering how badly Dems whupped the Republicans in the House in 2018 (53.4-44.8 in the national congressional vote), there just aren't that many really competitive GOP-held districts left.
    I don't think the interesting part of those numbers is whether the retiree's seats can or are likely to be flipped. It is whether or to what extent there is a (presumably Trump related) shift in the GOP that is causing some of the experienced members to call it a day and what the implications of that are.

  5. #65
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
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    New Bern, NC unless it's a home football game then I'm grilling on Devil's Alley
    Quote Originally Posted by Acymetric View Post
    I don't think the interesting part of those numbers is whether the retiree's seats can or are likely to be flipped. It is whether or to what extent there is a (presumably Trump related) shift in the GOP that is causing some of the experienced members to call it a day and what the implications of that are.
    I think that is very much the case. I find it interesting that few of those retiring have taken the chance to go Jeff Flake and speak out against the administration. I honestly expected more of them to do so.
    Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."

  6. #66
    Quote Originally Posted by CameronBornAndBred View Post
    I think that is very much the case. I find it interesting that few of those retiring have taken the chance to go Jeff Flake and speak out against the administration. I honestly expected more of them to do so.
    To do so would be to admit they lost the battle within the GOP. To remain silent is to go off on your own terms because it was the right time.

    At least that's my take.

  7. #67
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    Feb 2007
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    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    Quote Originally Posted by PackMan97 View Post
    To do so would be to admit they lost the battle within the GOP. To remain silent is to go off on your own terms because it was the right time.

    At least that's my take.
    What's more, many of these folks likely hope to move into lucrative lobbying gigs (either in DC or their home state) and burning bridges with the party is a great way to ruin that career path.
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  8. #68
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
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    Undisclosed
    Quote Originally Posted by PackMan97 View Post
    To do so would be to admit they lost the battle within the GOP. To remain silent is to go off on your own terms because it was the right time.

    At least that's my take.
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    What's more, many of these folks likely hope to move into lucrative lobbying gigs (either in DC or their home state) and burning bridges with the party is a great way to ruin that career path.
    Retiring Texas Republican Congressman Will Hurd essentially said that some folks are just laying low and will reemerge when Trump is gone. They are not leaving the Republican Party or even fighting it -- they are just getting away from having to tie their boats to the HMS Trump.
    1991 -- 1992 -- 2001 -- 2010 -- 2015

  9. #69
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    What's more, many of these folks likely hope to move into lucrative lobbying gigs (either in DC or their home state) and burning bridges with the party is a great way to ruin that career path.
    I thought my take was cynical...but I like yours even more

  10. #70
    Join Date
    Dec 2014
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    I'd tell ya, but then I'd have to kill ya
    Well, here's a D who probably won't run for re-election.

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/polit...D0u?li=BBnb7Kz

    Two days ago she categorically denied the relationship. What is with politicians? It seems they are incapable of just being honest.

  11. #71
    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap View Post
    Retiring Texas Republican Congressman Will Hurd essentially said that some folks are just laying low and will reemerge when Trump is gone. They are not leaving the Republican Party or even fighting it -- they are just getting away from having to tie their boats to the HMS Trump.
    This makes the most sense to me. Exeunt stage right quietly, if possible.

  12. #72
    Quote Originally Posted by dudog84 View Post
    Well, here's a D who probably won't run for re-election.

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/polit...D0u?li=BBnb7Kz

    Two days ago she categorically denied the relationship. What is with politicians? It seems they are incapable of just being honest.
    It's also been pointed out now that Hill was paying consulting fees to one of the staffers she was sleeping with too.

    (Incidentally, I applaud your sense of decorum for not linking to the lascivious photos featured in the (**redacted**) coverage of this important political story.)
    Last edited by JasonEvans; 10-24-2019 at 11:22 PM.

  13. #73
    Join Date
    Dec 2009
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    North of Durham
    Quote Originally Posted by Nick View Post
    It's also been pointed out now that Hill was paying consulting fees to one of the staffers she was sleeping with too.

    (Incidentally, I applaud your sense of decorum for not linking to the lascivious photos featured in the (**redacted**) coverage of this important political story.)
    This story definitely deserves attention but given what is going on in the world today, it is far from an "important political story." (**redacted content**)
    Last edited by JasonEvans; 10-24-2019 at 11:22 PM.

  14. #74
    "important political story" was tongue-in-cheek. This story is more hilarious than important.

  15. #75
    Join Date
    Dec 2014
    Location
    I'd tell ya, but then I'd have to kill ya
    Here's a shocker...Tulsi won't defend her seat, she's all in on her Quixotic quest for the Presidency. Snort.

    I'm assuming this Hawai'i seat is safely D however.

  16. #76
    Quote Originally Posted by Nick View Post
    "important political story" was tongue-in-cheek. This story is more hilarious than important.
    The old saying used to be (for male politicians) don't get caught with a live boy or dead girl. Those were simpler times...

  17. #77
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    New Bern, NC unless it's a home football game then I'm grilling on Devil's Alley
    Katie Hill is resigning in the face of investigations into her personal involvement with a staffer.
    She is in a swing district; she beat a Republican incumbent for her seat.
    Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."

  18. #78
    Quote Originally Posted by CameronBornAndBred View Post
    ... She is in a swing district ...
    Too easy ...

  19. #79
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    New Bern, NC unless it's a home football game then I'm grilling on Devil's Alley
    Jeff Sessions back in the Senate? That would be interesting. Extremely unlikely, but it's in the rumor mill.
    Also, I had no idea Tommy Tuberville was running for that seat. He'll get thousands of votes just by standing up and repeatedly yelling "War Eagle" as his campaign speech.

    https://www.cnn.com/2019/10/29/polit...ace/index.html
    Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."

  20. #80
    Quote Originally Posted by CameronBornAndBred View Post
    Jeff Sessions back in the Senate? That would be interesting. Extremely unlikely, but it's in the rumor mill.
    Also, I had no idea Tommy Tuberville was running for that seat. He'll get thousands of votes just by standing up and repeatedly yelling "War Eagle" as his campaign speech.

    https://www.cnn.com/2019/10/29/polit...ace/index.html
    Yes, particularly with an adversarial President Trump either actively campaigning against him or damning him with faint praise. Sessions' Republican primary opponents will have a field day airing all the derogatory things Trump has said about him.
    Last edited by bundabergdevil; 10-29-2019 at 11:08 AM.

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