2020 Congressional Elections

[CameronBornAndBred]

Things are very weird in the NC Senate race. Cunningham hasn’t made a public appearance or a social media post in more than 4 days. On Monday he suspended all paid advertising on Facebook. Today, Arlene Guzman Todd confirmed that she and Cunningham had a physically intimate relationship. There is almost no way to predict what impact this will have on the outcome, but at some point very soon, the silent strategy will become untenable.

Pretty sure he's toast. Oddly, while he *was* the one who was going to flip the Senate, his loss may not be of the magnitude that it once was.
I don't remember an NC Senate race being "Octobered" to this extent since Helms put out the Hands ad against Gantt.

[bundabergdevil]

Do we have any Arizonans on the board - or folks that watched the Kelly/McSally debate. Sounds like she went after him pretty hard but of more interest is the reporting that she sidestepped questions about whether she is proud to support Trump. As has been discussed here, if GOP candidates begin to noticeably distance themselves from Trump, it could be another indicator of the state of the national election in some of these swing states.


https://www.azcentral.com/story/news...ne/3631610001/

[Kdogg]

Just out today, the Cook Report moves South Carolina to toss up. I don't think Graham will loose but there is a clear shift in the SC electorate. Graham and the SC GOP didn't take Harrison seriously in the spring and are now in a real fighter where Graham is literally begging for money. Harrison's been running a good campaign with some of the most effective ads I have ever seen. The RNC probably didn't budget anything for a Senate race in SC.

From the article:

“It’s a jump ball at this point,” said one South Carolina Republican strategist. “Jaime is peaking at exactly the right time and he’s got a deluge of money. [Harrison] is blocking every pass there is from Republicans.”

[JasonEvans]

538 launches their House forecast with the Dems at somewhere between 93 and 97% to retain control of the House (depending on which model you use). 538 expects the Dems to pick up about 4 seats from the 2018 midterm, which would be quite the achievement since they won darn near everything they could in 2018.

[CrazyNotCrazie]

Just out today, the Cook Report moves South Carolina to toss up. I don't think Graham will loose but there is a clear shift in the SC electorate. Graham and the SC GOP didn't take Harrison seriously in the spring and are now in a real fighter where Graham is literally begging for money. Harrison's been running a good campaign with some of the most effective ads I have ever seen. The RNC probably didn't budget anything for a Senate race in SC.

From the article:

“It’s a jump ball at this point,” said one South Carolina Republican strategist. “Jaime is peaking at exactly the right time and he’s got a deluge of money. [Harrison] is blocking every pass there is from Republicans.”

How would Strom Thurmond have felt knowing that within 20 years of his death there might be two African-American senators from SC? Harrison really needs to get his GOTV working to pull this off.

[ClemmonsDevil]

How would Strom Thurmond have felt knowing that within 20 years of his death there might be two African-American senators from SC? Harrison really needs to get his GOTV working to pull this off.

So upset he would tear at his robe? Harrison is doing a fantastic job in this election. Win or lose he is a player now. Having him, Abrams and Lance-Bottoms is an unbelievably deep and talented core of minority leaders in the deep South.

[Furniture]

Things are very weird in the NC Senate race. Cunningham hasn’t made a public appearance or a social media post in more than 4 days. On Monday he suspended all paid advertising on Facebook. Today, Arlene Guzman Todd confirmed that she and Cunningham had a physically intimate relationship. There is almost no way to predict what impact this will have on the outcome, but at some point very soon, the silent strategy will become untenable.

It’s just a terrible thing when the little head starts thinking for the big head...Very unfortunate...

[gumbomoop]

Pretty sure he's toast.

In a normal election, yes. But 2020? Both parties risk looking hypocritical, Dems because of their criticism of Trump and ongoing focus on sexual predation by powerful men. Repubs because of their acceptance of Trump despite his history of sexual predation.

I’d guess this will move some undecideds toward Tillis, but it might determine such voters to sit out the NC Senate race. I doubt Dem women will either abandon Cunningham or sit it out. Maybe they’d call for him to resign next Feb, especially if Cooper is reëlected and gets to appoint the temporary replacement. Maybe they wouldn’t even demand that.

[CameronBornAndBred]

In a normal election, yes. But 2020? Both parties risk looking hypocritical, Dems because of their criticism of Trump and ongoing focus on sexual predation by powerful men. Repubs because of their acceptance of Trump despite his history of sexual predation.

I’d guess this will move some undecideds toward Tillis, but it might determine such voters to sit out the NC Senate race. I doubt Dem women will either abandon Cunningham or sit it out. Maybe they’d call for him to resign next Feb, especially if Cooper is reëlected and gets to appoint the temporary replacement. Maybe they wouldn’t even demand that.

If it were only the texts that were first reported, I'd be inclined to agree, but it looks like this is more than mere words. At some point Tillis is going to create ads and flood the NC airwaves calling out Cunningham's infidelity. Sure, voters may look the other way, but that will surprise me.
What Cunningham does have going for him is that this is a Presidential election year, so lots of Dems are showing up to vote to oust Trump. However, they may choose to leave the Senate race blank. A vote for nobody goes a long way towards getting Tillis back on the Hill.

[gumbomoop]

If it were only the texts that were first reported, I'd be inclined to agree, but it looks like this is more than mere words. At some point Tillis is going to create ads and flood the NC airwaves calling out Cunningham's infidelity. Sure, voters may look the other way, but that will surprise me.
What Cunningham does have going for him is that this is a Presidential election year, so lots of Dems are showing up to vote to oust Trump. However, they may choose to leave the Senate race blank. A vote for nobody goes a long way towards getting Tillis back on the Hill.

My guess is somewhat different from yours, but mine is definitely just a guess.

I do know that it’s an affair, not just texts. I’m guessing this will move some undecideds toward Tillis, some others to sit out the NC Senate contest. So a non-vote by an undecided doesn’t help either candidate. It’s definitely true that a non-vote by a Dem helps Tillis. But we seem to disagree on whether any/many Dems will be so dismayed as to cast no ballot in the NC Senate contest. I think almost none will do so, for exactly the reason you cite: “A vote for nobody [by a Dem] goes a long way towards getting Tillis back on the Hill.”

[Kdogg]

If it were only the texts that were first reported, I'd be inclined to agree, but it looks like this is more than mere words. At some point Tillis is going to create ads and flood the NC airwaves calling out Cunningham's infidelity.

They started airing yesterday (and I'm across the boarder seeing them).

[budwom]

So upset he would tear at his robe? Harrison is doing a fantastic job in this election. Win or lose he is a player now. Having him, Abrams and Lance-Bottoms is an unbelievably deep and talented core of minority leaders in the deep South.

yes, but can they actually get elected to national posts where they are?

p.s. the much discussed Susan Collins highly perturbed about Trump (pretty much) calling off stimulus talks, calling it "a huge mistake."

[bundabergdevil]

Cunningham says sorry.

[budwom]

Cunningham says sorry.

A few tears, a bit of public praying, and he's good to go. Nothing new in this approach.

[camion]

A few tears, a bit of public praying, and he's good to go. Nothing new in this approach.

Nothing creates contrition as much as getting caught.

[bundabergdevil]

A few tears, a bit of public praying, and he's good to go. Nothing new in this approach.

Nothing creates contrition as much as getting caught.

I would be very interested in a book that dissected the question of "why it torpedoes some careers and doesn't others". Lots of examples --- John Edwards, Al Franken, Anthony Weiner, Mark Foley (that one is more obvious), Blake Farenthold, Joe Barton (my favorite?), Tim Murphy, the list goes on. Of course, Bill Clinton and Donald Trump are exhibits 1 and 2 for the guys that have weathered that storm. Got to be willing to fight, that's for sure, and the presidency has more at stake. There have certainly been senators and congressmen that have made it, too.

[gumbomoop]

I would be very interested in a book that dissected the question of "why it torpedoes some careers and doesn't others". Lots of examples --- John Edwards, Al Franken...

Glad you mentioned Franken. I think his example may be instructive for the Cunningham case.

A fair number of progressive women have quietly but publicly expressed some regret at calling so vociferously for Franken’s resignation. Not saying all, just some. The context is his record, his apologies, Trump’s behavior toward women, and the R Party’s silence on Trump’s behavior. The circumstances of Franken’s removal is still an underlying “thing” among Dems. It may benefit Cunningham, as abandoning him will echo the Dems’ post facto discomfort with their own rush to judge Franken and hold him to a moral standard not matched by Repubs toward Trump.

Dems believe they’re fighting to save democracy. Cunningham is a Dem. He’s is a galling, but Dems hope temporary, embarrassment. They’ll “deal” with him after the election.

[Rich]

Glad you mentioned Franken. I think his example may be instructive for the Cunningham case.

A fair number of progressive women have quietly but publicly expressed some regret at calling so vociferously for Franken’s resignation. Not saying all, just some. The context is his record, his apologies, Trump’s behavior toward women, and the R Party’s silence on Trump’s behavior. The circumstances of Franken’s removal is still an underlying “thing” among Dems. It may benefit Cunningham, as abandoning him will echo the Dems’ post facto discomfort with their own rush to judge Franken and hold him to a moral standard not matched by Repubs toward Trump.

Dems believe they’re fighting to save democracy. Cunningham is a Dem. He’s is a galling, but Dems hope temporary, embarrassment. They’ll “deal” with him after the election.

Franken's biggest undoing was the poor timing of the allegation, right in the middle of the Me Too movement when every man, for better or worse, regardless of their misdeeds, was swept into the same bucket. I think any other time he would've been able to move past it.

[gumbomoop]

Franken's biggest undoing was the poor timing of the allegation, right in the middle of the Me Too movement when every man, for better or worse, regardless of their misdeeds, was swept into the same bucket. I think any other time he would've been able to move past it.

This is spot-on.

As the Me Too movement is presumably not “over,” what phase are we in right now, and how will the context of that phase affect Dem women’s support for Cunningham? I cannot imagine Dems will do anything other than “hold-nose-vote-for-rat,” as they certainly think Tillis is a much greater danger to the country.

[CrazyNotCrazie]

This is spot-on.

As the Me Too movement is presumably not “over,” what phase are we in right now, and how will the context of that phase affect Dem women’s support for Cunningham? I cannot imagine Dems will do anything other than “hold-nose-vote-for-rat,” as they certainly think Tillis is a much greater danger to the country.

This is a case where the extreme polarization of our country could help Cunningham. There are substantial differences, but I see parallels in this to Bob Menendez, Senator from NJ. When he ran in 2018 in a race he should have been heavily favored in, Menendez had to really fight to win because there were significant ethics charges against him, including a formal scolding by Congress. A lot of people in NJ really didn't want to vote for him, but saw a vote for his opponent as a vote for Trump so voted for Menendez. There is a lot less split ticket voting than there used to be - a lot of people vote for the party, not the candidate.

Similarly, as you suggested, a lot of voters in NC will stick with Cunningham as a vote for Democrats and against Trump. I'm sure there will be plenty of voters on the fence who this will likely flip, and that might be enough to win it for Tillis, but this definitely will not be a dealbreaker for Cunningham.