Page 23 of 32 FirstFirst ... 132122232425 ... LastLast
Results 441 to 460 of 638
  1. #441
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    New Bern, NC unless it's a home football game then I'm grilling on Devil's Alley
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    KY - 4% chance of flip from GOP to Dem
    So you're saying there's a chance...
    Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."

  2. #442
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    538 has launched their senate model... pardon me while I geek out for a moment!

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...recast/senate/

    The model gives the Dems a 58% chance of winning the senate.

    Here is how they rate the the close races for GOP seats:

    AZ - 78% chance of flip from GOP to Dem
    CO - 68% chance of flip from GOP to Dem
    NC - 62% chance of flip from GOP to Dem
    ME - 53% chance of flip from GOP to Dem
    IO - 41% chance of flip from GOP to Dem
    MT - 32% chance of flip from GOP to Dem
    GA - 26% chance of flip from GOP to Dem
    KS - 22% chance of flip from GOP to Dem
    GA (sp) - 17% chance of flip from GOP to Dem
    SC - 15% chance of flip from GOP to Dem
    AK - 13% chance of flip from GOP to Dem
    TX - 11% chance of flip from GOP to Dem
    KY - 4% chance of flip from GOP to Dem

    And the Dem seats in some trouble:
    AL - 72% chance of flip from Dem to GOP
    MI - 19% chance of flip from Dem to GOP
    MN - 8% chance of flip from Dem to GOP
    NM - 5% chance of flip from Dem to GOP
    So, 538 will also allow you to look at a "polls only" version of the senate model (go to the bottom of the page where it says "pick a model"). It takes out a number of environmental factors and just looks at what the polls are saying. It bears a pretty stark difference from what we see in the "deluxe" version that I quoted above:

    First of all, polls only gives the Dems a 68% chance of winning the senate. Here is how the races I highlighted change if you only consider the polls:

    GOP seats
    AZ - 86% chance of flip from GOP to Dem (+8)
    CO - 78% chance of flip from GOP to Dem (+10)
    NC - 71% chance of flip from GOP to Dem (+9)
    ME - 75% chance of flip from GOP to Dem (+22)
    IO - 48% chance of flip from GOP to Dem (+7)
    MT - 39% chance of flip from GOP to Dem (+7)
    GA - 31% chance of flip from GOP to Dem (+5)
    KS - 33% chance of flip from GOP to Dem (+12)
    GA (sp) - 17% chance of flip from GOP to Dem (no change)
    SC - 26% chance of flip from GOP to Dem (+11)
    AK - 22% chance of flip from GOP to Dem (+9)
    TX - 14% chance of flip from GOP to Dem (+3)
    KY - 7% chance of flip from GOP to Dem (+3)

    Dem seats
    AL - 90% chance of flip from Dem to GOP (+18)
    MI - 18% chance of flip from Dem to GOP (-1)
    MN - 15% chance of flip from Dem to GOP (+7)
    NM - 13% chance of flip from Dem to GOP (+8)

    The Maine shift is really stark. 538 thinks Susan Collins has a major incumbency advantage that overshadows a lot of her weakness in the polls.

    -Jason "Doug Jones, we hardly knew ya. Dude does not stand a change against War Eagle!" Evans
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  3. #443
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    So, 538 will also allow you to look at a "polls only" version of the senate model (go to the bottom of the page where it says "pick a model"). It takes out a number of environmental factors and just looks at what the polls are saying. It bears a pretty stark difference from what we see in the "deluxe" version that I quoted above:

    First of all, polls only gives the Dems a 68% chance of winning the senate. Here is how the races I highlighted change if you only consider the polls:

    GOP seats
    AZ - 86% chance of flip from GOP to Dem (+8)
    CO - 78% chance of flip from GOP to Dem (+10)
    NC - 71% chance of flip from GOP to Dem (+9)
    ME - 75% chance of flip from GOP to Dem (+22)
    IO - 48% chance of flip from GOP to Dem (+7)
    MT - 39% chance of flip from GOP to Dem (+7)
    GA - 31% chance of flip from GOP to Dem (+5)
    KS - 33% chance of flip from GOP to Dem (+12)
    GA (sp) - 17% chance of flip from GOP to Dem (no change)
    SC - 26% chance of flip from GOP to Dem (+11)
    AK - 22% chance of flip from GOP to Dem (+9)
    TX - 14% chance of flip from GOP to Dem (+3)
    KY - 7% chance of flip from GOP to Dem (+3)

    Dem seats
    AL - 90% chance of flip from Dem to GOP (+18)
    MI - 18% chance of flip from Dem to GOP (-1)
    MN - 15% chance of flip from Dem to GOP (+7)
    NM - 13% chance of flip from Dem to GOP (+8)

    The Maine shift is really stark. 538 thinks Susan Collins has a major incumbency advantage that overshadows a lot of her weakness in the polls.

    -Jason "Doug Jones, we hardly knew ya. Dude does not stand a change against War Eagle!" Evans
    It's fine. I'm not mad or anything. But there simply has to be a USS Maine reference in your handle in this situation.

  4. #444
    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Location
    North of Durham
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    So, 538 will also allow you to look at a "polls only" version of the senate model (go to the bottom of the page where it says "pick a model"). It takes out a number of environmental factors and just looks at what the polls are saying. It bears a pretty stark difference from what we see in the "deluxe" version that I quoted above:

    First of all, polls only gives the Dems a 68% chance of winning the senate. Here is how the races I highlighted change if you only consider the polls:

    GOP seats
    AZ - 86% chance of flip from GOP to Dem (+8)
    CO - 78% chance of flip from GOP to Dem (+10)
    NC - 71% chance of flip from GOP to Dem (+9)
    ME - 75% chance of flip from GOP to Dem (+22)
    IO - 48% chance of flip from GOP to Dem (+7)
    MT - 39% chance of flip from GOP to Dem (+7)
    GA - 31% chance of flip from GOP to Dem (+5)
    KS - 33% chance of flip from GOP to Dem (+12)
    GA (sp) - 17% chance of flip from GOP to Dem (no change)
    SC - 26% chance of flip from GOP to Dem (+11)
    AK - 22% chance of flip from GOP to Dem (+9)
    TX - 14% chance of flip from GOP to Dem (+3)
    KY - 7% chance of flip from GOP to Dem (+3)

    Dem seats
    AL - 90% chance of flip from Dem to GOP (+18)
    MI - 18% chance of flip from Dem to GOP (-1)
    MN - 15% chance of flip from Dem to GOP (+7)
    NM - 13% chance of flip from Dem to GOP (+8)

    The Maine shift is really stark. 538 thinks Susan Collins has a major incumbency advantage that overshadows a lot of her weakness in the polls.

    -Jason "Doug Jones, we hardly knew ya. Dude does not stand a change against War Eagle!" Evans
    Interesting. I was in Maine this summer and there was a ton of radio advertising for both parties, but one of the themes I heard in the Collins ads were "you might not like that she has supported Trump on some things, but she is one of us, and she has always looked out for the people of Maine and is not beholden to anyone but the people of Maine." Gideon has lived in Maine for a while so she isn't exactly a carpet bagger but Collins is Maine born and bred.

  5. #445
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    Quote Originally Posted by CrazyNotCrazie View Post
    Interesting. I was in Maine this summer and there was a ton of radio advertising for both parties, but one of the themes I heard in the Collins ads were "you might not like that she has supported Trump on some things, but she is one of us, and she has always looked out for the people of Maine and is not beholden to anyone but the people of Maine." Gideon has lived in Maine for a while so she isn't exactly a carpet bagger but Collins is Maine born and bred.
    Donald Trump is going to lose Maine by 15+ points. That's a tough hill to climb for Sen. Collins.
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  6. #446
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    New Bern, NC unless it's a home football game then I'm grilling on Devil's Alley
    I don't know if it's the smart thing to announce right now or not (the Dems are not famous for doing the smart thing), but it's out there. Essentially, the strategy is "if you can't win, then change the rules".

    And if the Democrats ultimately fail to stop the nominee, they are indicating that they may push legislation to expand the Supreme Court by adding additional seats to retaliate against what they view as Republicans' heavy-handed tactics.
    https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/19/polit...ats/index.html
    Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."

  7. #447
    Join Date
    Feb 2018
    Location
    Durham, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by CameronBornAndBred View Post
    I don't know if it's the smart thing to announce right now or not (the Dems are not famous for doing the smart thing), but it's out there. Essentially, the strategy is "if you can't win, then change the rules".
    That article states, in part: "Ultimately, adding seats to the Supreme Court would take passing legislation once the filibuster is changed..." Is this true? Wouldn't it simply be a matter of a President nominating someone and then the Senate confirming or not? Cloture rules were already changed for the Supreme Court in 2017 for Gorsuch, a procedure made almost inevitable once the procedures were changed for lower court judges in 2013. Isn't that the only "law" in play during a Supreme Court confirmation, or are there other steps along the way that are subject to filibuster?

    I'm not expressing any viewpoint, and I'm not seeking debate on the substance of what is or is not a good idea. I'm just wondering how this part of the law works, and I was hoping you or someone out there would know offhand.

  8. #448
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Seattle, WA
    Quote Originally Posted by Phredd3 View Post
    That article states, in part: "Ultimately, adding seats to the Supreme Court would take passing legislation once the filibuster is changed..." Is this true? Wouldn't it simply be a matter of a President nominating someone and then the Senate confirming or not? Cloture rules were already changed for the Supreme Court in 2017 for Gorsuch, a procedure made almost inevitable once the procedures were changed for lower court judges in 2013. Isn't that the only "law" in play during a Supreme Court confirmation, or are there other steps along the way that are subject to filibuster?

    I'm not expressing any viewpoint, and I'm not seeking debate on the substance of what is or is not a good idea. I'm just wondering how this part of the law works, and I was hoping you or someone out there would know offhand.
    The Judiciary Act of 1869 specifies that the Supreme Court will consist of one Chief Justice and 8 Associate Justices. Thatís the law that would need to be amended to end up with more than 9 judges.
    Just be you. You is enough. - K, 4/5/10, 0:13.8 to play, 60-59 Duke.

    You're all jealous hypocrites. - Titus on Laettner

    You see those guys? Animals. They're animals. - SIU Coach Chris Lowery, on Duke

  9. #449
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    Quote Originally Posted by pfrduke View Post
    The Judiciary Act of 1869 specifies that the Supreme Court will consist of one Chief Justice and 8 Associate Justices. Thatís the law that would need to be amended to end up with more than 9 judges.
    The filibuster rule that would need to be changed does not relate to judicial appointments, it is the rule that you need 60 votes to close debate on regular legislation. To add more seats to the court, you merely need to pass a piece of legislation amending/changing the Judicial Act of 1869. The House and the Senate would both need to pass it and then the President would need to sign it. Once that was done, there would be vacancies for the President to fill and the Senate to confirm. But, the first step in all that is legislation and the way the senate currently works, you need 60 votes to get legislation passed.
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  10. #450
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Location
    Outside Philly
    Lindsey gets the Sarah treatment. This is a pretty soft shot all things considered in politics but it made me laugh.

  11. #451
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!

    Senate odds updates

    All of these come from 538's model. The classic is a model that uses polls as well as demographics, traditional voting patterns, and expert opinions (like the Cook Political Report ratings). The polls only is, obviously, what polls are telling the model without any of those external factors.


    Most likely GOP seats to flip Dem:
    Ariz - 77% (classic) 85% (polls only)
    N. Car - 71% (classic) 76% (polls only)
    Colorado - 71% (classic) 76% (polls only)
    Maine - 58% (classic) 74% (polls only)
    Iowa - 46% (classic) 53% (polls only)
    Mont - 33% (classic) 41% (polls only)
    GA (regular) - 26% (classic) 32% (polls only)
    GA (special) - 23% (classic) 37% (polls only)
    KS - 23% (classic) 37% (polls only)
    SC - 20% (classic) 27% (polls only)
    Alaska - 15% (classic) 27% (polls only)
    TX - 12% (classic) 15% (polls only)
    KY - 5% (classic) 4% (polls only)

    Most likely Dem seats to flip GOP:
    Alabama - 78% (classic) 94% (polls only)
    Mich - 22% (classic) 20% (polls only)
    Minn - 7% (classic) 11% (polls only)
    NM - 6% (classic) 14% (polls only)

    The most likely scenario remains that the Dems flip 4 seats and the GOP flips 1 and we are left with a 50-50 senate so whoever is VP does a lot of tie-breaking.

    -Jason "in this scenario, they should name Joe Manchin majority leader as he will be the most powerful man in the Senate" Evans
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  12. #452
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    GA (regular) - 26% (classic) 32% (polls only)
    GA (special) - 23% (classic) 37% (polls only)
    The GA Special Election is 100% going to a runoff that would be held on January 5th. There is no way anyone is getting to 50% in the first round of votes. I believe there are 20 names on the ballot. It appears Warnock is surging as the preferred Democrat to face either Collins or Loeffler. I guess there might be scenarios where Collins and Loeffler both beat Warnock, but I think that is now unlikely. The other somewhat viable democrat is Joe Lieberman's son but he rarely polls higher than about 10% and I doubt he has much of a chance to getting into the top 2.

    It seems not at all unlikely that the regular election will also go to a Jan 5 runoff in Georgia as the polls are very close (there have been a couple pollsters who put Ossoff in the lead in recent days) and there is a Libertarian who is likely to get 1-2% and prevent either Purdue or Ossoff from reaching 50%.

    It is entirely possible that the fate of the senate will hang on 1 or 2 runoff elections in Georgia in January. You wanna talk about dollars pour into a race... whew!! It would almost certainly be the most expensive runoff in history.
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  13. #453
    Join Date
    Apr 2011
    Location
    Winston’Salem
    Thom Tillis (R-NC) has tested positive for COVID-19.
    "Amazing what a minute can do."

  14. #454
    Quote Originally Posted by Tripping William View Post
    Thom Tillis (R-NC) has tested positive for COVID-19.
    Good Lord. Bad virus day

  15. #455
    Join Date
    Apr 2011
    Location
    Winston’Salem
    Quote Originally Posted by ClemmonsDevil View Post
    Good Lord. Bad virus day
    Is there a good virus day?
    "Amazing what a minute can do."

  16. #456
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Undisclosed
    Quote Originally Posted by Tripping William View Post
    Thom Tillis (R-NC) has tested positive for COVID-19.
    He was at the same Saturday Rose Garden event for the Supreme Court nominee as Mike Lee and the Notre Dame President, both of whom announced they were COVID-positive in the last day or so.

  17. #457
    Join Date
    Apr 2011
    Location
    Winston’Salem
    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap View Post
    He was at the same Saturday Rose Garden event for the Supreme Court nominee as Mike Lee and the Notre Dame President, both of whom announced they were COVID-positive in the last day or so.
    And all of whom were maskless. Post hoc ergo propter hoc?
    "Amazing what a minute can do."

  18. #458
    Quote Originally Posted by Tripping William View Post
    Is there a good virus day?
    Just if you're a virus it seems.

  19. #459
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Undisclosed
    Quote Originally Posted by Tripping William View Post
    And all of whom were maskless. Post hoc ergo propter hoc?
    Both Lee and Tillis are on the Judiciary Committee. If they have to quarantine and cannot participate in the Supreme Court confirmation hearing for some reason, there is a 10-10 tie even if all Republicans vote to confirm.

  20. #460
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Location
    Outside Philly
    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap View Post
    Both Lee and Tillis are on the Judiciary Committee. If they have to quarantine and cannot participate in the Supreme Court confirmation hearing for some reason, there is a 10-10 tie even if all Republicans vote to confirm.
    Yes. Very rapidly evolving implications and scenarios for all of this. Just incredible times.

Similar Threads

  1. Midterm Elections 2018
    By Udaman in forum Off Topic
    Replies: 1869
    Last Post: 05-15-2019, 12:58 PM
  2. Shooting at Congressional baseball practice
    By davekay1971 in forum Off Topic
    Replies: 24
    Last Post: 06-16-2017, 07:32 AM

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •