2020 Congressional Elections

[CameronBornAndBred]

KY - 4% chance of flip from GOP to Dem

So you're saying there's a chance...

[JasonEvans]

538 has launched their senate model... pardon me while I geek out for a moment!

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...recast/senate/

The model gives the Dems a 58% chance of winning the senate.

Here is how they rate the the close races for GOP seats:

AZ - 78% chance of flip from GOP to Dem
CO - 68% chance of flip from GOP to Dem
NC - 62% chance of flip from GOP to Dem
ME - 53% chance of flip from GOP to Dem
IO - 41% chance of flip from GOP to Dem
MT - 32% chance of flip from GOP to Dem
GA - 26% chance of flip from GOP to Dem
KS - 22% chance of flip from GOP to Dem
GA (sp) - 17% chance of flip from GOP to Dem
SC - 15% chance of flip from GOP to Dem
AK - 13% chance of flip from GOP to Dem
TX - 11% chance of flip from GOP to Dem
KY - 4% chance of flip from GOP to Dem

And the Dem seats in some trouble:

AL - 72% chance of flip from Dem to GOP
MI - 19% chance of flip from Dem to GOP
MN - 8% chance of flip from Dem to GOP
NM - 5% chance of flip from Dem to GOP

So, 538 will also allow you to look at a "polls only" version of the senate model (go to the bottom of the page where it says "pick a model"). It takes out a number of environmental factors and just looks at what the polls are saying. It bears a pretty stark difference from what we see in the "deluxe" version that I quoted above:

First of all, polls only gives the Dems a 68% chance of winning the senate. Here is how the races I highlighted change if you only consider the polls:

GOP seats

AZ - 86% chance of flip from GOP to Dem (+8)
CO - 78% chance of flip from GOP to Dem (+10)
NC - 71% chance of flip from GOP to Dem (+9)
ME - 75% chance of flip from GOP to Dem (+22)
IO - 48% chance of flip from GOP to Dem (+7)
MT - 39% chance of flip from GOP to Dem (+7)
GA - 31% chance of flip from GOP to Dem (+5)
KS - 33% chance of flip from GOP to Dem (+12)
GA (sp) - 17% chance of flip from GOP to Dem (no change)
SC - 26% chance of flip from GOP to Dem (+11)
AK - 22% chance of flip from GOP to Dem (+9)
TX - 14% chance of flip from GOP to Dem (+3)
KY - 7% chance of flip from GOP to Dem (+3)

Dem seats

AL - 90% chance of flip from Dem to GOP (+18)
MI - 18% chance of flip from Dem to GOP (-1)
MN - 15% chance of flip from Dem to GOP (+7)
NM - 13% chance of flip from Dem to GOP (+8)

The Maine shift is really stark. 538 thinks Susan Collins has a major incumbency advantage that overshadows a lot of her weakness in the polls.

-Jason "Doug Jones, we hardly knew ya. Dude does not stand a change against War Eagle!" Evans

[ClemmonsDevil]

So, 538 will also allow you to look at a "polls only" version of the senate model (go to the bottom of the page where it says "pick a model"). It takes out a number of environmental factors and just looks at what the polls are saying. It bears a pretty stark difference from what we see in the "deluxe" version that I quoted above:

First of all, polls only gives the Dems a 68% chance of winning the senate. Here is how the races I highlighted change if you only consider the polls:

GOP seats

AZ - 86% chance of flip from GOP to Dem (+8)
CO - 78% chance of flip from GOP to Dem (+10)
NC - 71% chance of flip from GOP to Dem (+9)
ME - 75% chance of flip from GOP to Dem (+22)
IO - 48% chance of flip from GOP to Dem (+7)
MT - 39% chance of flip from GOP to Dem (+7)
GA - 31% chance of flip from GOP to Dem (+5)
KS - 33% chance of flip from GOP to Dem (+12)
GA (sp) - 17% chance of flip from GOP to Dem (no change)
SC - 26% chance of flip from GOP to Dem (+11)
AK - 22% chance of flip from GOP to Dem (+9)
TX - 14% chance of flip from GOP to Dem (+3)
KY - 7% chance of flip from GOP to Dem (+3)

Dem seats

AL - 90% chance of flip from Dem to GOP (+18)
MI - 18% chance of flip from Dem to GOP (-1)
MN - 15% chance of flip from Dem to GOP (+7)
NM - 13% chance of flip from Dem to GOP (+8)

The Maine shift is really stark. 538 thinks Susan Collins has a major incumbency advantage that overshadows a lot of her weakness in the polls.

-Jason "Doug Jones, we hardly knew ya. Dude does not stand a change against War Eagle!" Evans

It's fine. I'm not mad or anything. But there simply has to be a USS Maine reference in your handle in this situation.

[CrazyNotCrazie]

So, 538 will also allow you to look at a "polls only" version of the senate model (go to the bottom of the page where it says "pick a model"). It takes out a number of environmental factors and just looks at what the polls are saying. It bears a pretty stark difference from what we see in the "deluxe" version that I quoted above:

First of all, polls only gives the Dems a 68% chance of winning the senate. Here is how the races I highlighted change if you only consider the polls:

GOP seats

AZ - 86% chance of flip from GOP to Dem (+8)
CO - 78% chance of flip from GOP to Dem (+10)
NC - 71% chance of flip from GOP to Dem (+9)
ME - 75% chance of flip from GOP to Dem (+22)
IO - 48% chance of flip from GOP to Dem (+7)
MT - 39% chance of flip from GOP to Dem (+7)
GA - 31% chance of flip from GOP to Dem (+5)
KS - 33% chance of flip from GOP to Dem (+12)
GA (sp) - 17% chance of flip from GOP to Dem (no change)
SC - 26% chance of flip from GOP to Dem (+11)
AK - 22% chance of flip from GOP to Dem (+9)
TX - 14% chance of flip from GOP to Dem (+3)
KY - 7% chance of flip from GOP to Dem (+3)

Dem seats

AL - 90% chance of flip from Dem to GOP (+18)
MI - 18% chance of flip from Dem to GOP (-1)
MN - 15% chance of flip from Dem to GOP (+7)
NM - 13% chance of flip from Dem to GOP (+8)

The Maine shift is really stark. 538 thinks Susan Collins has a major incumbency advantage that overshadows a lot of her weakness in the polls.

-Jason "Doug Jones, we hardly knew ya. Dude does not stand a change against War Eagle!" Evans

Interesting. I was in Maine this summer and there was a ton of radio advertising for both parties, but one of the themes I heard in the Collins ads were "you might not like that she has supported Trump on some things, but she is one of us, and she has always looked out for the people of Maine and is not beholden to anyone but the people of Maine." Gideon has lived in Maine for a while so she isn't exactly a carpet bagger but Collins is Maine born and bred.

[JasonEvans]

Interesting. I was in Maine this summer and there was a ton of radio advertising for both parties, but one of the themes I heard in the Collins ads were "you might not like that she has supported Trump on some things, but she is one of us, and she has always looked out for the people of Maine and is not beholden to anyone but the people of Maine." Gideon has lived in Maine for a while so she isn't exactly a carpet bagger but Collins is Maine born and bred.

Donald Trump is going to lose Maine by 15+ points. That's a tough hill to climb for Sen. Collins.

[CameronBornAndBred]

I don't know if it's the smart thing to announce right now or not (the Dems are not famous for doing the smart thing), but it's out there. Essentially, the strategy is "if you can't win, then change the rules".

And if the Democrats ultimately fail to stop the nominee, they are indicating that they may push legislation to expand the Supreme Court by adding additional seats to retaliate against what they view as Republicans' heavy-handed tactics.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/19/polit...ats/index.html

[Phredd3]

I don't know if it's the smart thing to announce right now or not (the Dems are not famous for doing the smart thing), but it's out there. Essentially, the strategy is "if you can't win, then change the rules".

That article states, in part: "Ultimately, adding seats to the Supreme Court would take passing legislation once the filibuster is changed..." Is this true? Wouldn't it simply be a matter of a President nominating someone and then the Senate confirming or not? Cloture rules were already changed for the Supreme Court in 2017 for Gorsuch, a procedure made almost inevitable once the procedures were changed for lower court judges in 2013. Isn't that the only "law" in play during a Supreme Court confirmation, or are there other steps along the way that are subject to filibuster?

I'm not expressing any viewpoint, and I'm not seeking debate on the substance of what is or is not a good idea. I'm just wondering how this part of the law works, and I was hoping you or someone out there would know offhand.

[pfrduke]

That article states, in part: "Ultimately, adding seats to the Supreme Court would take passing legislation once the filibuster is changed..." Is this true? Wouldn't it simply be a matter of a President nominating someone and then the Senate confirming or not? Cloture rules were already changed for the Supreme Court in 2017 for Gorsuch, a procedure made almost inevitable once the procedures were changed for lower court judges in 2013. Isn't that the only "law" in play during a Supreme Court confirmation, or are there other steps along the way that are subject to filibuster?

I'm not expressing any viewpoint, and I'm not seeking debate on the substance of what is or is not a good idea. I'm just wondering how this part of the law works, and I was hoping you or someone out there would know offhand.

The Judiciary Act of 1869 specifies that the Supreme Court will consist of one Chief Justice and 8 Associate Justices. That’s the law that would need to be amended to end up with more than 9 judges.

[JasonEvans]

The Judiciary Act of 1869 specifies that the Supreme Court will consist of one Chief Justice and 8 Associate Justices. That’s the law that would need to be amended to end up with more than 9 judges.

The filibuster rule that would need to be changed does not relate to judicial appointments, it is the rule that you need 60 votes to close debate on regular legislation. To add more seats to the court, you merely need to pass a piece of legislation amending/changing the Judicial Act of 1869. The House and the Senate would both need to pass it and then the President would need to sign it. Once that was done, there would be vacancies for the President to fill and the Senate to confirm. But, the first step in all that is legislation and the way the senate currently works, you need 60 votes to get legislation passed.

[bundabergdevil]

Lindsey gets the Sarah treatment. This is a pretty soft shot all things considered in politics but it made me laugh.

[JasonEvans]

All of these come from 538's model. The classic is a model that uses polls as well as demographics, traditional voting patterns, and expert opinions (like the Cook Political Report ratings). The polls only is, obviously, what polls are telling the model without any of those external factors.


Most likely GOP seats to flip Dem:
Ariz - 77% (classic) 85% (polls only)
N. Car - 71% (classic) 76% (polls only)
Colorado - 71% (classic) 76% (polls only)
Maine - 58% (classic) 74% (polls only)
Iowa - 46% (classic) 53% (polls only)
Mont - 33% (classic) 41% (polls only)
GA (regular) - 26% (classic) 32% (polls only)
GA (special) - 23% (classic) 37% (polls only)
KS - 23% (classic) 37% (polls only)
SC - 20% (classic) 27% (polls only)
Alaska - 15% (classic) 27% (polls only)
TX - 12% (classic) 15% (polls only)
KY - 5% (classic) 4% (polls only)

Most likely Dem seats to flip GOP:
Alabama - 78% (classic) 94% (polls only)
Mich - 22% (classic) 20% (polls only)
Minn - 7% (classic) 11% (polls only)
NM - 6% (classic) 14% (polls only)

The most likely scenario remains that the Dems flip 4 seats and the GOP flips 1 and we are left with a 50-50 senate so whoever is VP does a lot of tie-breaking.

-Jason "in this scenario, they should name Joe Manchin majority leader as he will be the most powerful man in the Senate" Evans

[JasonEvans]

GA (regular) - 26% (classic) 32% (polls only)
GA (special) - 23% (classic) 37% (polls only)

The GA Special Election is 100% going to a runoff that would be held on January 5th. There is no way anyone is getting to 50% in the first round of votes. I believe there are 20 names on the ballot. It appears Warnock is surging as the preferred Democrat to face either Collins or Loeffler. I guess there might be scenarios where Collins and Loeffler both beat Warnock, but I think that is now unlikely. The other somewhat viable democrat is Joe Lieberman's son but he rarely polls higher than about 10% and I doubt he has much of a chance to getting into the top 2.

It seems not at all unlikely that the regular election will also go to a Jan 5 runoff in Georgia as the polls are very close (there have been a couple pollsters who put Ossoff in the lead in recent days) and there is a Libertarian who is likely to get 1-2% and prevent either Purdue or Ossoff from reaching 50%.

It is entirely possible that the fate of the senate will hang on 1 or 2 runoff elections in Georgia in January. You wanna talk about dollars pour into a race... whew!! It would almost certainly be the most expensive runoff in history.

[Tripping William]

Thom Tillis (R-NC) has tested positive for COVID-19.

[ClemmonsDevil]

Thom Tillis (R-NC) has tested positive for COVID-19.

Good Lord. Bad virus day

[Tripping William]

Good Lord. Bad virus day

Is there a good virus day?

[OldPhiKap]

Thom Tillis (R-NC) has tested positive for COVID-19.

He was at the same Saturday Rose Garden event for the Supreme Court nominee as Mike Lee and the Notre Dame President, both of whom announced they were COVID-positive in the last day or so.

[Tripping William]

He was at the same Saturday Rose Garden event for the Supreme Court nominee as Mike Lee and the Notre Dame President, both of whom announced they were COVID-positive in the last day or so.

And all of whom were maskless. Post hoc ergo propter hoc?

[ClemmonsDevil]

Is there a good virus day?

Just if you're a virus it seems.

[OldPhiKap]

And all of whom were maskless. Post hoc ergo propter hoc?

Both Lee and Tillis are on the Judiciary Committee. If they have to quarantine and cannot participate in the Supreme Court confirmation hearing for some reason, there is a 10-10 tie even if all Republicans vote to confirm.

[bundabergdevil]

Both Lee and Tillis are on the Judiciary Committee. If they have to quarantine and cannot participate in the Supreme Court confirmation hearing for some reason, there is a 10-10 tie even if all Republicans vote to confirm.

Yes. Very rapidly evolving implications and scenarios for all of this. Just incredible times.