2020 Congressional Elections

[budwom]

There appears to be a lot of dissension among Republicans in Congress related to the latest stimulus proposal. It will be interesting to see who lands where, whether any clear groups form within the party based on what they want out of the next stimulus, and how that impacts the election (or, perhaps it is the other way around and the upcoming election will impact where different Republican representatives align themselves).

What you said, plus POTUS says he sees it as "semi relevant." Can the Dems get a few Repubs and the president to go along with them? Clear as mud at this point...

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Holy moly, I’m stealing this.

Mr. Miyagi had a similar story.

[gumbomoop]

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/0...e-seats-385760

Nationally — “Publicly, House GOP leaders are declaring they can still net the 17 seats needed to flip the chamber. But privately, some party strategists concede it’s a much grimmer picture, with as many as 20 Republican seats at risk of falling into Democratic hands.”

North Carolina — “Redistricting in North Carolina has added to GOP woes. Two red seats were transformed into safe Democratic territory in a court-mandated redraw. And there’s mounting unease about Republican Rep. Richard Hudson, whose new district became more competitive and unites the Democratic stronghold of Fayetteville. He was outraised last quarter by a former state Supreme Court justice.”

No mention in the article of Meadows’s old seat, so I’d be particularly interested in a comment from any informed poster out here in western NC. Is it safely R? I guess so, though the Dems think they have a promising candidate in Moe Davis, retired Air Force colonel, lead prosecutor at Guantanamo who resigned in opposition to use of torture. His opponent, Madison Cawthorn, has a compelling personal story (paraplegic). Very young man, running to protect gun rights, “faith, family, and freedom, and “to combat the rise of socialism in America.”

[PackMan97]

maybe I'm not looking at the right YouTube ad, but what I saw was pretty mild by Lincoln Project standards, just noted she votes with Trump/McConnell 67% of the time and is always "concerned."

I had expected more turd flingage, but maybe I'm looking at the wrong ad.

I saw that as well, 67% of the time might as well be independent. She is the least loyal Republican besting Rand Paul by just a smidge.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...s-trump-score/

[JasonEvans]

McConnell is worried... he's telling GOP senators they can throw Trump under the bus if necessary to keep their seats.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/31/polit...all/index.html

Sen. Mitch McConnell is allowing Republican Senate candidates to do whatever it takes to salvage their campaigns ahead of what Republicans increasingly fear could be a devastating election for their party.

In recent weeks, the Senate majority leader has become so concerned over Republicans losing control of the Senate that he has signaled to vulnerable GOP senators in tough races that they could distance themselves from the President if they feel it is necessary, according to multiple senior Republicans including a source close to McConnell.

[PackMan97]

McConnell is worried... he's telling GOP senators they can throw Trump under the bus if necessary to keep their seats.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/31/polit...all/index.html

The story wrote itself five months ago, all we are doing now is reading the writing on the wall.

Throw Trump under the bus and alienate his voters. Lose the election.
Stand by Trump and alienate independents and swing voters. Lose the election.

I don't see a way out of this one for the Senators.

[MarkD83]

The story wrote itself five months ago, all we are doing now is reading the writing on the wall.

Throw Trump under the bus and alienate his voters. Lose the election.
Stand by Trump and alienate independents and swing voters. Lose the election.

I don't see a way out of this one for the Senators.

They could move to Minnesota and then hope an expansion franchise comes back to DC and they could be come the Nationals. (Oh wait...is this the MLB thread?).

[CrazyNotCrazie]

Obama has released his first set of endorsements (I am not advocating for these, just noting them because his endorsement potentially carries a lot of weight, plus this shows how he is re-entering the political process). He has clearly focused on certain key races rather than just saying "I endorse all the Democrats." At a quick glance, what is interesting to me is some of those that were not included, particularly the Kentucky, GA and Montana Senate races. One would think that he would have endorsed a ham sandwich against Mitch in Kentucky. He has endorsed in some state races in states where there is a chance to flip the state house and influence redistricting.

https://int.nyt.com/data/documenttoo...06544/full.pdf

[budwom]

Obama has released his first set of endorsements (I am not advocating for these, just noting them because his endorsement potentially carries a lot of weight, plus this shows how he is re-entering the political process). He has clearly focused on certain key races rather than just saying "I endorse all the Democrats." At a quick glance, what is interesting to me is some of those that were not included, particularly the Kentucky, GA and Montana Senate races. One would think that he would have endorsed a ham sandwich against Mitch in Kentucky. He has endorsed in some state races in states where there is a chance to flip the state house and influence redistricting.

https://int.nyt.com/data/documenttoo...06544/full.pdf

I could imagine his calculus is that his endorsement might not mean much in places like KY, GA and Montana...might be more effective staying out of it there.

[OldPhiKap]

Obama has released his first set of endorsements (I am not advocating for these, just noting them because his endorsement potentially carries a lot of weight, plus this shows how he is re-entering the political process). He has clearly focused on certain key races rather than just saying "I endorse all the Democrats." At a quick glance, what is interesting to me is some of those that were not included, particularly the Kentucky, GA and Montana Senate races. One would think that he would have endorsed a ham sandwich against Mitch in Kentucky. He has endorsed in some state races in states where there is a chance to flip the state house and influence redistricting.

https://int.nyt.com/data/documenttoo...06544/full.pdf

Obama lost by around 23% to Romney in Kentucky in 2012 — perhaps he thought his endorsement would hurt and not help.

Georgia’s jungle primary is just a hot mess — the eight Dems are gonna end up letting the two main Republicans through while they divvy the opposition amongst themselves. (when you include third parties and independents, there are 21 candidates total IIRC).

[CrazyNotCrazie]

I could imagine his calculus is that his endorsement might not mean much in places like KY, GA and Montana...might be more effective staying out of it there.

Obama lost by around 23% to Romney in Kentucky in 2012 — perhaps he thought his endorsement would hurt and not help.

Georgia’s jungle primary is just a hot mess — the eight Dems are gonna end up letting the two main Republicans through while they divvy the opposition amongst themselves.

Agreed. Obama strikes me as being self-aware enough to have consulted with the potential beneficiaries of the endorsements before endorsing. So if Amy McGrath politely said thanks but no thanks, he would stay away. I was just saying that I'm sure he is very eager to help her in any way possible as McConnell definitely is not one of his favorites. And if staying away helps, then that is what he will do.

I just saw that Ann Coulter endorsed McGrath against McConnell. That's interesting...

The lovely Amy McGrath is a Marine Corps veteran. The average donation to her campaign is $36.

Mitch McConnell is a broken-down old man owed by cheap labor lobbyists.

#DefeatMcConnell

https://twitter.com/anncoulter/statu...271686?lang=en

[rasputin]

Obama has released his first set of endorsements (I am not advocating for these, just noting them because his endorsement potentially carries a lot of weight, plus this shows how he is re-entering the political process). He has clearly focused on certain key races rather than just saying "I endorse all the Democrats." At a quick glance, what is interesting to me is some of those that were not included, particularly the Kentucky, GA and Montana Senate races. One would think that he would have endorsed a ham sandwich against Mitch in Kentucky. He has endorsed in some state races in states where there is a chance to flip the state house and influence redistricting.

https://int.nyt.com/data/documenttoo...06544/full.pdf

I don't think Obama would endorse a ham sandwich, with him being a Muslim and all.

[OldPhiKap]

Good news for the GOP: Marshall beats Kobach in the Senate primary in Kansas, raising the probability of holding the seat and maybe the chamber. Kobach was seen by many as too extreme to win in the general election. (This is the seat Mike Pompeo likely could have won had he decided to run for it).

[budwom]

GOP senators up for re-election feeling the pressure to get a stimulus deal done...hardly clear how this will play out...

[Truth&Justise]

A pair of incumbent reps appear to have lost primaries yesterday.

In St. Louis, ten-term Rep. William Lacy Clay lost to progressive activist Cori Bush. Bush, a registered nurse and pastor, became involved in politics during the 2014 protests in Ferguson and had lost soundly to Clay in the 2018 primary. This will mark the first time since 1969 that the seat has not been held by Clay or his father, Bill Clay.

Meanwhile in Kansas, freshman Rep. Steve Watkins is out. Watkins narrowly defeated a conservative Democrat, 47.6% to 46.8%, in 2018 to win an open seat representing both Topeka and Lawrence. But Watkins was dogged by criminal charges of voter fraud and lying to investigators after it was discovered his voting address was a UPS Store. Yesterday he was defeated by Jake LaTurner, the current state treasurer.

[JasonEvans]

Rashida Tlaib, one of the members of "The Squad," beat back a primary challenge in what was an unexpectedly close race. Still, on the whole, progressives had a pretty good night and it appears the Democratic party is moving more and more to the left.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/05/polit...lts/index.html

[Phredd3]

Rashida Tlaib, one of the members of "The Squad," beat back a primary challenge in what was an unexpectedly close race. Still, on the whole, progressives had a pretty good night and it appears the Democratic party is moving more and more to the left.

It is truly getting harder to see how the parties can reach common ground. Each side continues to move away from the other with very little sign of a willingness to bridge the gap. Joe has run on a "bridge the gap" campaign, but even if he's elected, I'm skeptical he'll be able to get the rock any closer to the hard place.

If you can't grind the wheat, you can't make the bread.

[budwom]

In the shorter term, it looks like the GOP and Dems have a deadline to reach a stimulus deal by the end of the week, so it will almost certainly happen. Some GOP members up for re-election have to have it; Dems will probably lower their $3 trillion ask; I believe the White House has offered $400 extra/week for unemployment benefits, up from $200. Also willing to extend the no eviction period. Mitch is pretty much saying if the WH and Dems can reach a deal, he's OK with it.

[budwom]

It is truly getting harder to see how the parties can reach common ground. Each side continues to move away from the other with very little sign of a willingness to bridge the gap. Joe has run on a "bridge the gap" campaign, but even if he's elected, I'm skeptical he'll be able to get the rock any closer to the hard place.

If you can't grind the wheat, you can't make the bread.

I definitely get your point, but can also note that in other countries with multi party systems (UK, Canada, Germany) they have an even broader left to right array than we do, by a large margin, and yet they still manage to govern and get stuff done.
There are various reasons for this, but we have an especially high level of toxicity in our politics, which is really not helpful. Multi party systems often require coalitions (and hence compromise) to govern...not the worst thing.

[Phredd3]

I definitely get your point, but can also note that in other countries with multi party systems (UK, Canada, Germany) they have an even broader left to right array than we do, by a large margin, and yet they still manage to govern and get stuff done.

A broader spectrum, but without the demonization of a monolithic opposition. It's harder to be "us vs. them" when you are a member of a party that controls a tenth of the vote. If you want any voice at all, you need to be willing to reach an agreement.