In the post-2016 era, I am really unclear as to what is a big deal and what is not a big deal anymore. Nothing surprises me anymore. Which, as someone who thrives in an environment of law and order, predictability and following rules, makes it very hard for me to read the news most days without my blood pressure rising.
North Carolinians, here's some polling for your special U.S. House election (even if it's not your district, I'll bet you've heard of it) in 10 days:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ZO6...MuUPq8Q_R/view
D with a slim lead, but what I find interesting is that undecideds are leaning towards the D by a 2 to 1 margin. And that Mitch is more unpopular than Nancy.
Trump will be coming to your neck of the woods for another rally. Fasten your seatbelts!
Some interesting stuff here. The Isakson seat will be a jungle primary. Perdue seat will be a regular election. But what could be fun is if neither is decided on Election Day, there's a runoff 2 months later. Can you imagine what Georgia would be in for if on November 4, 2020 the Senate is split 49-49 or 50-49? I guess 50-48 is a possibility as well. I'm rooting for 49-49.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/polit...DeW?li=BBnb7Kz
As Kemp ponders his options and Democrats play musical chairs, there is one aspect of the 2020 Georgia Senate landscape that is gradually dawning on observers near and far. The special election for the Isakson seat will be a “jungle primary” in which any and all Democrats and Republicans — and for that matter members of minor parties — will compete. If no one wins a majority (and that’s a distinct possibility, particularly if the two major parties cannot clear the field for their candidates), there will be a runoff on January 5, 2021. But here’s the thing: Georgia also requires a majority of the vote to win general elections, which means that the Perdue race could go to a January runoff as well (as very nearly happened to Kemp last year).
How does 49-49 or 50-48 happen? Is there another seat that will not be filled after November? I guess you are thinking of Louisiana, which also has a jungle primary that generally results in a run off, but Louisiana does their runoff fairly quickly (generally first week of December) and that seat is very likely to remain in GOP hands in the end.
Also, if a Dem wins the White House and the Senate is 50-49 Democrats then the seat isn't nearly as important as if the GOP leads 50-49 with a Democratic VP waiting to break the tie. I should mention that the opposite is possible if Trump wins re-election, but the odds that the Dems take that many senate seats in a year where Trump wins the White House seems nearly impossible.
It will be very interesting to see how many folks jump into the jungle primary in GA. Odds are there will be a Dem and Republican to each come out in the end, but if it is a crowded field, it raises the possibility of just one party taking the top two spots. It would take a huge mess on the other side, but lets say D1 gets 25%, D2 gets 22%, and then R1, R2, and R3 each get 15-20%.
--Jason "Unlikely, but possible... and would be the kind of thing that ranked choice voting would instantly solve" Evans
Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?
With the way voter suppression works in key states now, along with continued blue voter flight to the coasts, I find it increasingly unlikely that the Democrats will ever take the Senate back. It's going to take some sort of cataclysm like a full blown political realignment.
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If McConnell is truly in trouble in Kentucky, retired Marine Lt. Col. Amy McGrath should be able to make hay with this situation:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/mi...Zkv?li=BBnb7Kz
For those that don't want to read, a Kentucky military base is losing funding for a middle school to Trump's wall.
Sorry, I did not read the article completely as I already know a lot about the Ga Senate races. My bad.
The Purdue seat is much less likely to go to a runoff than the jungle primary one. We are assured of having one Dem vs one Republican in that race. The Libertarian could push it to a runoff (it has happened before, in 2008) but it takes a pretty razor thin race for that to happen. The other race, which is likely to have a least 2 viable candidates from both major parties** is the one almost certain to head to a runoff.
**- It is possible the GOP holds down participation as the Ga Gov. will pick someone from the GOP to hold the seat for 2020 after Isakson retires, but I suspect there will be ambitious Republicans who will be willing to challenge an appointed incumbent. I'm unsure of the deadline to declare for that race but I suppose it is possible that the loser of the Democratic primary to take on Perdue could run in the jungle primary depending on filing deadlines.
Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?
So, NC Peeps, what’s gonna happen today?
I can't imagine it will be much of a contest here in the 3rd District; Walter Jones ran unopposed and barely campaigned, that's how confident he was in his assured victory. With his health issues (he never went back to Washington after his win), that race was essentially won by a dead guy. His replacement of course now has to make a name for himself, but it's such a red district that Murhpy's victory is all but assured.
The 10th District is far more interesting, and far more tight, proven by Trump's visit to Fayetteville last night. The Democrat Dan McCready has a slim lead in the polls, and I expect a pretty good turnout in that one. That contest is pretty much a tossup. (By the way, the trials for the folks that instituted a need for this election because of their election fraud are still ongoing.)
Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."