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  1. #21
    Join Date
    Dec 2009
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    North of Durham
    Quote Originally Posted by Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15 View Post
    So... I am confused. Extra-marital affairs are, or are not a big deal in politics?
    In the post-2016 era, I am really unclear as to what is a big deal and what is not a big deal anymore. Nothing surprises me anymore. Which, as someone who thrives in an environment of law and order, predictability and following rules, makes it very hard for me to read the news most days without my blood pressure rising.

  2. #22
    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap View Post
    Problem is, the Dems won't know who the Rep candidate is for Johnny's seat until after their primary too. So kind of a blind draw there.

    I am not aware of any real animosity towards the holder of the other seat (David Perdue) who just came on in 2015 when Saxby Chambliss retired. He seems to have kept a relatively low profile while in DC.
    Some rumbling that Jon Ossoff may throw his hat in for Dems. He’s the Dem that competed for but ultimately lost Gingrich’s old reliably red seat in 2018, IIRC

  3. #23
    Quote Originally Posted by CrazyNotCrazie View Post
    That is enough to create animosity for many Democrats and never-Trump Republicans.
    Meh, not sure how that matters. The general goal for a politician is to keep the constituency that put them in office happy. That it creates some animosity among those that didn't isn't new.

    I'm probably being petty in another thread.

  4. #24
    Join Date
    Dec 2014
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    I'd tell ya, but then I'd have to kill ya
    North Carolinians, here's some polling for your special U.S. House election (even if it's not your district, I'll bet you've heard of it) in 10 days:

    https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ZO6...MuUPq8Q_R/view

    D with a slim lead, but what I find interesting is that undecideds are leaning towards the D by a 2 to 1 margin. And that Mitch is more unpopular than Nancy.

    Trump will be coming to your neck of the woods for another rally. Fasten your seatbelts!

  5. #25
    Join Date
    Dec 2014
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    I'd tell ya, but then I'd have to kill ya
    Quote Originally Posted by CameronBornAndBred View Post
    While Ilhan Omar is a visible and broad target for most of the American GOP, she is obviously popular enough in her own district to have been elected.
    Her re-election chances may have just taken a big hit, however. This goes beyond rumors.



    https://www.yahoo.com/news/ilhan-oma...153918990.html

    With a representative up for re-election every two years, they are basically on a non stop campaign. This isn't a stop that one would want to take.
    This provides clarification, or muddying (I'm not sure which), of the situation. It appears to be he said/she said in a nasty divorce proceeding.

    As an aside, the amount of money in our politics is astounding.

  6. #26
    Join Date
    Dec 2014
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    I'd tell ya, but then I'd have to kill ya
    Quote Originally Posted by budwom View Post
    am I right in assuming this election will not be at the same time as the presidential one?
    Quote Originally Posted by CrazyNotCrazie View Post
    I believe it is at the same time, for a two year term. I assume that since both GA Senate seats will be contested, the candidates have to declare which seat they are running for? There is a lot of potential game theory going on here - if the Dems were well-organized (which is a huge if), they would determine which of the two seats is most vulnerable and put their best candidate there - I'm sure they would love to take them both but I think they would be smartest to just focus on one.
    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap View Post
    Problem is, the Dems won't know who the Rep candidate is for Johnny's seat until after their primary too. So kind of a blind draw there.

    I am not aware of any real animosity towards the holder of the other seat (David Perdue) who just came on in 2015 when Saxby Chambliss retired. He seems to have kept a relatively low profile while in DC.
    Some interesting stuff here. The Isakson seat will be a jungle primary. Perdue seat will be a regular election. But what could be fun is if neither is decided on Election Day, there's a runoff 2 months later. Can you imagine what Georgia would be in for if on November 4, 2020 the Senate is split 49-49 or 50-49? I guess 50-48 is a possibility as well. I'm rooting for 49-49.

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/polit...DeW?li=BBnb7Kz

    As Kemp ponders his options and Democrats play musical chairs, there is one aspect of the 2020 Georgia Senate landscape that is gradually dawning on observers near and far. The special election for the Isakson seat will be a “jungle primary” in which any and all Democrats and Republicans — and for that matter members of minor parties — will compete. If no one wins a majority (and that’s a distinct possibility, particularly if the two major parties cannot clear the field for their candidates), there will be a runoff on January 5, 2021. But here’s the thing: Georgia also requires a majority of the vote to win general elections, which means that the Perdue race could go to a January runoff as well (as very nearly happened to Kemp last year).

  7. #27
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    Dec 2009
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    North of Durham
    Quote Originally Posted by dudog84 View Post
    Some interesting stuff here. The Isakson seat will be a jungle primary. Perdue seat will be a regular election. But what could be fun is if neither is decided on Election Day, there's a runoff 2 months later. Can you imagine what Georgia would be in for if on November 4, 2020 the Senate is split 49-49 or 50-49? I guess 50-48 is a possibility as well. I'm rooting for 49-49.

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/polit...DeW?li=BBnb7Kz
    Very interesting. Time to buy stock in the companies that own the major Atlanta TV and radio stations - there would be an ad blitz like you have never seen before.

  8. #28
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    Feb 2007
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    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    Quote Originally Posted by dudog84 View Post
    Can you imagine what Georgia would be in for if on November 4, 2020 the Senate is split 49-49 or 50-49? I guess 50-48 is a possibility as well. I'm rooting for 49-49.
    How does 49-49 or 50-48 happen? Is there another seat that will not be filled after November? I guess you are thinking of Louisiana, which also has a jungle primary that generally results in a run off, but Louisiana does their runoff fairly quickly (generally first week of December) and that seat is very likely to remain in GOP hands in the end.

    Also, if a Dem wins the White House and the Senate is 50-49 Democrats then the seat isn't nearly as important as if the GOP leads 50-49 with a Democratic VP waiting to break the tie. I should mention that the opposite is possible if Trump wins re-election, but the odds that the Dems take that many senate seats in a year where Trump wins the White House seems nearly impossible.

    It will be very interesting to see how many folks jump into the jungle primary in GA. Odds are there will be a Dem and Republican to each come out in the end, but if it is a crowded field, it raises the possibility of just one party taking the top two spots. It would take a huge mess on the other side, but lets say D1 gets 25%, D2 gets 22%, and then R1, R2, and R3 each get 15-20%.

    --Jason "Unlikely, but possible... and would be the kind of thing that ranked choice voting would instantly solve" Evans
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  9. #29
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    Dec 2014
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    I'd tell ya, but then I'd have to kill ya
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    How does 49-49 or 50-48 happen? Is there another seat that will not be filled after November? I guess you are thinking of Louisiana, which also has a jungle primary that generally results in a run off, but Louisiana does their runoff fairly quickly (generally first week of December) and that seat is very likely to remain in GOP hands in the end.
    49+49 and 50+48 equal 98, correct? According to the article, it's not just the jungle primary seat that could go to a runoff, but the Perdue seat as well. Is the article wrong?

  10. #30
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    Skinker-DeBaliviere, Saint Louis
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    How does 49-49 or 50-48 happen? Is there another seat that will not be filled after November? I guess you are thinking of Louisiana, which also has a jungle primary that generally results in a run off, but Louisiana does their runoff fairly quickly (generally first week of December) and that seat is very likely to remain in GOP hands in the end.

    Also, if a Dem wins the White House and the Senate is 50-49 Democrats then the seat isn't nearly as important as if the GOP leads 50-49 with a Democratic VP waiting to break the tie. I should mention that the opposite is possible if Trump wins re-election, but the odds that the Dems take that many senate seats in a year where Trump wins the White House seems nearly impossible.

    It will be very interesting to see how many folks jump into the jungle primary in GA. Odds are there will be a Dem and Republican to each come out in the end, but if it is a crowded field, it raises the possibility of just one party taking the top two spots. It would take a huge mess on the other side, but lets say D1 gets 25%, D2 gets 22%, and then R1, R2, and R3 each get 15-20%.

    --Jason "Unlikely, but possible... and would be the kind of thing that ranked choice voting would instantly solve" Evans
    With the way voter suppression works in key states now, along with continued blue voter flight to the coasts, I find it increasingly unlikely that the Democrats will ever take the Senate back. It's going to take some sort of cataclysm like a full blown political realignment.

    A movie is not about what it's about; it's about how it's about it.
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  11. #31
    Join Date
    Dec 2014
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    I'd tell ya, but then I'd have to kill ya
    If McConnell is truly in trouble in Kentucky, retired Marine Lt. Col. Amy McGrath should be able to make hay with this situation:

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/mi...Zkv?li=BBnb7Kz

    For those that don't want to read, a Kentucky military base is losing funding for a middle school to Trump's wall.

  12. #32
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    Feb 2007
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    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    Quote Originally Posted by dudog84 View Post
    49+49 and 50+48 equal 98, correct? According to the article, it's not just the jungle primary seat that could go to a runoff, but the Perdue seat as well. Is the article wrong?
    Sorry, I did not read the article completely as I already know a lot about the Ga Senate races. My bad.

    The Purdue seat is much less likely to go to a runoff than the jungle primary one. We are assured of having one Dem vs one Republican in that race. The Libertarian could push it to a runoff (it has happened before, in 2008) but it takes a pretty razor thin race for that to happen. The other race, which is likely to have a least 2 viable candidates from both major parties** is the one almost certain to head to a runoff.

    **- It is possible the GOP holds down participation as the Ga Gov. will pick someone from the GOP to hold the seat for 2020 after Isakson retires, but I suspect there will be ambitious Republicans who will be willing to challenge an appointed incumbent. I'm unsure of the deadline to declare for that race but I suppose it is possible that the loser of the Democratic primary to take on Perdue could run in the jungle primary depending on filing deadlines.
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  13. #33
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    Dec 2014
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    I'd tell ya, but then I'd have to kill ya
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Sorry, I did not read the article completely as I already know a lot about the Ga Senate races. My bad.

    The Purdue seat is much less likely to go to a runoff than the jungle primary one. We are assured of having one Dem vs one Republican in that race. The Libertarian could push it to a runoff (it has happened before, in 2008) but it takes a pretty razor thin race for that to happen. The other race, which is likely to have a least 2 viable candidates from both major parties** is the one almost certain to head to a runoff.

    **- It is possible the GOP holds down participation as the Ga Gov. will pick someone from the GOP to hold the seat for 2020 after Isakson retires, but I suspect there will be ambitious Republicans who will be willing to challenge an appointed incumbent. I'm unsure of the deadline to declare for that race but I suppose it is possible that the loser of the Democratic primary to take on Perdue could run in the jungle primary depending on filing deadlines.
    You're making me do math again, but if the Libertarian had pulled just 10,000 more votes (out of almost 4,000,000 cast) in last year's governor's race, it would have gone to a runoff. Sorry if it appears I'm wishing chaos upon you Georgians.

  14. #34
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    Sep 2007
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    Undisclosed
    So, NC Peeps, what’s gonna happen today?
    1991 -- 1992 -- 2001 -- 2010 -- 2015

  15. #35
    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap View Post
    So, NC Peeps, what’s gonna happen today?
    It's going to be unseasonably warm?

  16. #36
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    Nov 2007
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    Vermont
    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap View Post
    So, NC Peeps, what’s gonna happen today?
    History would tell us there will be two things: controversy and at least one more court case...they don't do elections all that well.

  17. #37
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    Sep 2007
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15 View Post
    It's going to be unseasonably warm?
    “it’s the new normal”

    Quote Originally Posted by budwom View Post
    History would tell us there will be two things: controversy and at least one more court case...they don't do elections all that well.
    “it’s the normal”
    1991 -- 1992 -- 2001 -- 2010 -- 2015

  18. #38
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
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    New Bern, NC unless it's a home football game then I'm grilling on Devil's Alley
    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap View Post
    So, NC Peeps, what’s gonna happen today?
    I can't imagine it will be much of a contest here in the 3rd District; Walter Jones ran unopposed and barely campaigned, that's how confident he was in his assured victory. With his health issues (he never went back to Washington after his win), that race was essentially won by a dead guy. His replacement of course now has to make a name for himself, but it's such a red district that Murhpy's victory is all but assured.
    The 10th District is far more interesting, and far more tight, proven by Trump's visit to Fayetteville last night. The Democrat Dan McCready has a slim lead in the polls, and I expect a pretty good turnout in that one. That contest is pretty much a tossup. (By the way, the trials for the folks that instituted a need for this election because of their election fraud are still ongoing.)
    Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."

  19. #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by CameronBornAndBred View Post
    I can't imagine it will be much of a contest here in the 3rd District; Walter Jones ran unopposed and barely campaigned, that's how confident he was in his assured victory. With his health issues (he never went back to Washington after his win), that race was essentially won by a dead guy. His replacement of course now has to make a name for himself, but it's such a red district that Murhpy's victory is all but assured.
    The 10th District is far more interesting, and far more tight, proven by Trump's visit to Fayetteville last night. The Democrat Dan McCready has a slim lead in the polls, and I expect a pretty good turnout in that one. That contest is pretty much a tossup. (By the way, the trials for the folks that instituted a need for this election because of their election fraud are still ongoing.)
    Thanks!
    1991 -- 1992 -- 2001 -- 2010 -- 2015

  20. #40
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
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    New Bern, NC unless it's a home football game then I'm grilling on Devil's Alley
    Quote Originally Posted by CameronBornAndBred View Post
    The 10th District is far more interesting)
    By the way, it's possible that the 10th District IS far more interesting, but they aren't having an election today. I meant to type the 9th.
    Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."

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