2020 Congressional Elections

[jv001]

Not sure how I feel about the filibusters. Totally agree on gerrymandering (put every person in a computer, don't tag them with identifying information, and let the computer optimize). Also on the electoral college, but that has turned into a partisan issue. Ranked choice is also a great idea but good luck hammering out the specifics of that. I would also reduce the ability of the senate majority leader to determine which bills get voted on. Figure out a way to make the courts less political. And get rid of presidential pardons, as both sides have really abused those. I have a bunch more but they likely start getting way too partisan, though they shouldn't be.

Ain't that the truth and a record setting number in one term.

[JasonEvans]

From the Presidential thread...

Then I'd stay out of Trump's line of fire today if I'm staff. Marist just posted Biden +7 in NC, with the all-important over 50 percentage (51).

Edit: A little deeper dive into the poll, Trump's disapproval in March was +3, and now it's +14. And by a 2 to 1 margin, they're not happy about the Charlotte convention kerfuffle.

That same Marist College poll finds Cunningham with a 9-point lead on Tillis, 50-41, for the Senate seat. And in the governor's race it finds Cooper just whupping up on Forrest 58-38.

I'm sorry, but there is no way the GOP is winning the senate or the presidential race in North Carolina while the Democrats are winning the governor's race by 20 points. Whew!

[dudog84]

Sorry, but only the Ds could miss an opportunity like this.

Tom Cotton (Arkansas) is up for re-election, and the Ds will not field any opposition. Unforgivable for either party not to field opposition no matter how uphill the race may appear, because you never know what will happen.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/polit...EM3?li=BBnb7Kz

Cotton calls slavery a "necessary evil". Though his seat is not in jeopardy, I can't imagine Rs in other tight races across the country will appreciate a leader coming out with such a statement 100 days before their own election.

[camion]

Sorry, but only the Ds could miss an opportunity like this.

Tom Cotton (Arkansas) is up for re-election, and the Ds will not field any opposition. Unforgivable for either party not to field opposition no matter how uphill the race may appear, because you never know what will happen.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/polit...EM3?li=BBnb7Kz

Cotton calls slavery a "necessary evil". Though his seat is not in jeopardy, I can't imagine Rs in other tight races across the country will appreciate a leader coming out with such a statement 100 days before their own election.

Is it ironic or fitting that his name is Cotton? That will go nicely in an ad.

[cato]

Sorry, but only the Ds could miss an opportunity like this.

Tom Cotton (Arkansas) is up for re-election, and the Ds will not field any opposition. Unforgivable for either party not to field opposition no matter how uphill the race may appear, because you never know what will happen.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/polit...EM3?li=BBnb7Kz

Cotton calls slavery a "necessary evil". Though his seat is not in jeopardy, I can't imagine Rs in other tight races across the country will appreciate a leader coming out with such a statement 100 days before their own election.

I submit that the local party does know what, in fact, would happen.

[OldPhiKap]

FWIW, Lincoln Project is tweeting that they are releasing something tomorrow that may not make Susan Collins happy. . . .

[dudog84]

FWIW, Lincoln Project is tweeting that they are releasing something tomorrow that may not make Susan Collins happy. . . .

I'm sure she's concerned. A ridiculous amount of polling released today on 538, but scroll far enough and you'll see a Colby College (Waterville, Maine) poll of 888 likely voters has her down by 5 points.

[OldPhiKap]

FWIW, Lincoln Project is tweeting that they are releasing something tomorrow that may not make Susan Collins happy. . . .

I'm sure she's concerned. A ridiculous amount of polling released today on 538, but scroll far enough and you'll see a Colby College (Waterville, Maine) poll of 888 likely voters has her down by 5 points.

It was just released. Not sure of the rules regarding linking it here — it is obviously one-sided — but it’s out there for those interested.

These guys don’t mess around.

[JasonEvans]

It was just released. Not sure of the rules regarding linking it here — it is obviously one-sided — but it’s out there for those interested.

These guys don’t mess around.

We generally do not allow links to clearly partisan commercials unless there is some larger, analytical point being made via the link. For example, we allowed a link to a Trump ad as it was essential to a discussion about Trump's strategy. If folks want to find the Lincoln Project ad, I am sure they can do it on their own without using the DBR as a conduit.

[JasonEvans]

The Lincoln Project is actually spending $1 mil to air that Collins ad in Maine. That is a serious ad buy in that state. They also released an ad today that is 100% positive on Democrat Steve Bullock (it never once mentions his opponent by name) who is running for Senate in Montana.

A really curious strategy by this ostensibly Republican organization to so boldly work to get Democratic seats in the Senate. I guess TLP has decided that any Republican who does not repudiate Trump should be drummed out of the party... though that would not leave the party with many elected officials.

[YmoBeThere]

A really curious strategy by this ostensibly Republican organization to so boldly work to get Democratic seats in the Senate. I guess TLP has decided that any Republican who does not repudiate Trump should be drummed out of the party... though that would not leave the party with many elected officials.

There was an opinion piece today in the NY Times by a senior advisor to the group which covered this.

[OldPhiKap]

We generally do not allow links to clearly partisan commercials unless there is some larger, analytical point being made via the link. For example, we allowed a link to a Trump ad as it was essential to a discussion about Trump's strategy. If folks want to find the Lincoln Project ad, I am sure they can do it on their own without using the DBR as a conduit.

Thanks, that was my assumption and why I did not link it.

Collins is in deep trouble even without this. The only thing in the middle of the road is a yellow line and dead armadillos. She tried to sit the fence between pro- and anti- Trump constituents, and all she did I think was cheese off both sides.

(Which is also why I do not think many Republicans will abandon Trump if his numbers do not improve. They will just talk about him less and will focus on local issues or the evils of the other side).

[OldPhiKap]

Breaking -- Louie Gohmert has tested positive for COVID. He was supposed to accompany the President to Texas today.

Gohmert has not been wearing a mask in the Capitol apparently and just defended the practice to CNN recently.

[JasonEvans]

Collins is in deep trouble even without this. The only thing in the middle of the road is a yellow line and dead armadillos. She tried to sit the fence between pro- and anti- Trump constituents, and all she did I think was cheese off both sides.

Well, if the polling is to be believed, she's not in nearly as much trouble as Cory Gardner or Martha McSally. They have been much more in the consistent Trump camp than she has and their re-election prospects look considerably dimmer than her's. Collins is a Republican in a state that looks like it is going to go for Biden by 10-15 points, but Collins seems to be down by only about 5 points. I don't see her as having "cheesed off" the Republicans in her state. In fact, her support among Republicans seems strong.

I could not get the cross-tabs from the Colby College poll, but a PPP poll done just a couple weeks ago that also showed Gideon up about 5 points found that Collins wins 87% of Republican voters while Gideon wins 88% of Democratic voters, essentially no difference in their support among partisans. That tells me Collins does not have any problem within her own party. Heck, the PPP poll found Collins winning "Independent" voters in Maine by 45-36. Collins problem right now is not that she has lost the middle of the road or the die-hard Trump supporters, it is that Maine has a good number more Democrats than Republicans at this point and Collins is no longer winning them over the way she once did.

[Phredd3]

Breaking -- Louie Gohmert has tested positive for COVID. He was supposed to accompany the President to Texas today.

Gohmert has not been wearing a mask in the Capitol apparently and just defended the practice to CNN recently.

He's 66 years old. He does seem to be in good physical condition, though, so maybe he'll be fine. Hopefully, others have kept their distance.

[OldPhiKap]

He's 66 years old. He does seem to be in good physical condition, though, so maybe he'll be fine. Hopefully, others have kept their distance.

I did not watch the Judiciary hearing with A.G. Wm. Barr yesterday, but apparently he was there without a mask all day. So I would be curious to know who was sitting nearby.

[CameronBornAndBred]

I did not watch the Judiciary hearing with A.G. Wm. Barr yesterday, but apparently he was there without a mask all day. So I would be curious to know who was sitting nearby.

There wasn't anyone else near him unless he was coming in or leaving, and not all of those people had masks either.
Jerry Nadler, who was wearing a mask, had it down around his neck and chin for a good portion of the hearing.

[budwom]

FWIW, Lincoln Project is tweeting that they are releasing something tomorrow that may not make Susan Collins happy. . . .

maybe I'm not looking at the right YouTube ad, but what I saw was pretty mild by Lincoln Project standards, just noted she votes with Trump/McConnell 67% of the time and is always "concerned."

I had expected more turd flingage, but maybe I'm looking at the wrong ad.

[wilson]

...The only thing in the middle of the road is a yellow line and dead armadillos..

Holy moly, I’m stealing this.

[Acymetric]

There appears to be a lot of dissension among Republicans in Congress related to the latest stimulus proposal. It will be interesting to see who lands where, whether any clear groups form within the party based on what they want out of the next stimulus, and how that impacts the election (or, perhaps it is the other way around and the upcoming election will impact where different Republican representatives align themselves).