2020 Congressional Elections

[dudog84]

Incumbent in trouble in Democratic primary:

House Foreign Affairs Committee chair Eliot Engel’s three-decade tenure in Congress may be coming to an end.

His hot mic moment “If I didn't have a primary, I wouldn’t care” put a stake in him. A walking ad for term limits.

Hell, Strom Thurmond was still having kids at that age.

(Well, 74 or so actually but you get the idea).

Yeah, Ralph Hall (retired in 2015 at age 91 from the House) says hold my beer. To be fair, I had to look that up.

To be serious, I wouldn't count out ol' (old) Mitch in 2026. Another walking (in 6 years may be shuffling) ad for term limits.

[OldPhiKap]

The (mean) average age of a Senator is 61.8 years. Diane Feinstein is about to turn 87 on Monday. Chuck Grassley and Richard Shelby are right behind her at 86. (Jim Inhofe rounds out the top three at a spry 85).

Unrelated fact: the oldest-known animal is a Seychelles giant tortoise named "Jonathan," at around 187 years old.

[dudog84]

New Kentucky poll finds Mitch not in any trouble at all. He's up 20 on McGrath and 14 on Booker.
http://filesforprogress.org/datasets...ok_2020_06.pdf

There may be a blue wave in the Senate races this fall, but it seems like the GOP leader will survive just fine.

-Jason "McConnell is 78... this is almost certainly his final race" Evans

This is either an outlier or proves what I wrote at the top of the page (edit: page 14). Booker is only screwing up this opportunity for the Ds.

A poll out 10 days ago showed McGrath up 1 on Mitch. Every poll in the past 10 months has shown her within 3.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...nate/kentucky/

[OldPhiKap]

This is either an outlier or proves what I wrote at the top of the page (edit: page 14). Booker is only screwing up this opportunity for the Ds.

A poll out 10 days ago showed McGrath up 1 on Mitch. Every poll in the past 10 months has shown her within 3.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...nate/kentucky/

I have not followed the race closely, but my understanding is (1) Booker has been coming on very strong; and (2) McGrath has made some recent mistakes on the trail. FWIW.

[dudog84]

I have not followed the race closely, but my understanding is (1) Booker has been coming on very strong; and (2) McGrath has made some recent mistakes on the trail. FWIW.

I don't care how strong he's coming on, he's been endorsed by AOC and Bernie. Even I could write the ads for Mitch in Kentucky.

[CameronBornAndBred]

The (mean) average age of a Senator is 61.8 years. Diane Feinstein is about to turn 87 on Monday. Chuck Grassley and Richard Shelby are right behind her at 86. (Jim Inhofe rounds out the top three at a spry 85).

Unrelated fact: the oldest-known animal is a Seychelles giant tortoise named "Jonathan," at around 187 years old.

Greenland sharks say "hi". (Lots of sharks in congress, but none born in the 1500's.)

In 2016, a study based on 28 specimens that ranged from 81 to 502 cm (2.7–16.5 ft) in length determined by radiocarbon dating of crystals within the lens of their eyes, that the oldest of the animals that they sampled, which also was the largest, had lived for 392 ± 120 years and was consequently born between 1504 and 1744.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenland_shark

[OldPhiKap]

Greenland sharks say "hi". (Lots of sharks in congress, but none born in the 1500's.)


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenland_shark

Interesting. Since McConnell has a law degree, I probably should have googled sharks. But for some inexplicable and wholly-unrelated reason, I googled turtles instead and that’s what came up.

In the words of the Duke Chronicle mid-80’s edition, “Bill Buckner regrets the error.”

[CrazyNotCrazie]

I have not followed the race closely, but my understanding is (1) Booker has been coming on very strong; and (2) McGrath has made some recent mistakes on the trail. FWIW.

I think she has been getting a lot of grief for a past mistake - last year she initially supported Kavanaugh for the Supreme Court then very quickly changed her mind. I recently read something (I forget where) that said that she has been very blah on the campaign trail and during a debate when Booker was talking about being at various rallies in the past few weeks, she said she was home dealing with family issues. I think that in some ways this is a microcosm of the presidential election - who is best suited to take on the incumbent Trump/McConnell - the very left insurgent (Booker/Bernie) who will energize that wing of the party, or the more moderate (McGrath/Biden) who might get more moderates to come her way.

[OldPhiKap]

I think she has been getting a lot of grief for a past mistake - last year she initially supported Kavanaugh for the Supreme Court then very quickly changed her mind. I recently read something (I forget where) that said that she has been very blah on the campaign trail and during a debate when Booker was talking about being at various rallies in the past few weeks, she said she was home dealing with family issues. I think that in some ways this is a microcosm of the presidential election - who is best suited to take on the incumbent Trump/McConnell - the very left insurgent (Booker/Bernie) who will energize that wing of the party, or the more moderate (McGrath/Biden) who might get more moderates to come her way.

Good point. Trump is 17-20 points ahead of Biden right now in KY, so I still just don’t see this being close no matter which one wins.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...eral/kentucky/

(And yes, I know there have been recent polls showing McGrath close to Mitch: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...nate/kentucky/ . In fact, it is interesting how far Mitch trails Trump in the state.)

[bundabergdevil]

Matt Gaetz has always been a bit of a wild card in Congress but, ummm, what?

[bundabergdevil]

We'll see if there's a progressive surge in a few races this evening. McGrath v. Booker in KY and Engel v. Bowman.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Engel get an ouster; he strikes me as the type of politician ripe for the picking in the current political environment. I don't know much about the KY race other than the late endorsements of Booker by Warren and others. McGrath seems like she'd be a reasonably strong (for KY) contestant against McConnell.

[JasonEvans]

It is still early, but with about half of precincts reporting, McGrath leads Booker 44.6% - 36.5%. Many Kentucky precincts say that due to a large volume of mail in votes, they won't report final results until next week.

https://www.wlwt.com/app/election-re...-race/32934252

It also looks like longtime NY congressman Elliot Engel has been ousted by progressive newcomer Jamaal Bowman. AOC gets another ally in the Democratic caucus.

[OldPhiKap]

In the race to fill Mark Meadows' seat in NC, 24-year old Madison Cawthorn defeated Lynda Bennett in the Republican primary yesterday. IIRC, it is the first time that a Trump-endorsed candidate has lost a primary. And it was not very close.

Anyone have the local skinny on this race?

[bundabergdevil]

In the race to fill Mark Meadows' seat in NC, 24-year old Madison Cawthorn defeated Lynda Bennett in the Republican primary yesterday. IIRC, it is the first time that a Trump-endorsed candidate has lost a primary. And it was not very close.

Anyone have the local skinny on this race?

There's been a couple prior to this one, according to Ballotpedia. Not many though.

[OldPhiKap]

There's been a couple prior to this one, according to Ballotpedia. Not many though.

Thanks for the info!

[mattman91]

In the race to fill Mark Meadows' seat in NC, 24-year old Madison Cawthorn defeated Lynda Bennett in the Republican primary yesterday. IIRC, it is the first time that a Trump-endorsed candidate has lost a primary. And it was not very close.

Anyone have the local skinny on this race?

No info, but I've seen him around. Seems like a very nice young man, fwiw.

[mattman91]

No info, but I've seen him around. Seems like a very nice young man, fwiw.

I'd also like to add that his fiancee is gorgeous, fwiw.

[Rich]

Unrelated fact: the oldest-known animal is a Seychelles giant tortoise named "Jonathan," at around 187 years old.

I voted for Jonathan - 6 more years!

[OldPhiKap]

I voted for Jonathan - 6 more years!

"Make the Seychelles Great Again!"

And again, wholly unrelated to tortoises -- it looks like it will be a while before we find out who will be running against McConnell in Kentucky this fall.

[OldPhiKap]

"Deven Nunes can't sue Twitter over statements by fake cow, judge rules" is not a news flash that would have made sense to 2010 OPK.