2020 Congressional Elections

[dudog84]

To get this thread back on actual Congressional races, and not Presidential, I didn't realize that Amy McGrath actually had a valid challenger. The primary is a week away, and Charles Booker is apparently making some real headway in his quest to be the Dem nominee to run against Mitch McConnell.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/0...-senate-316201

Yeah, the Ds will rip themselves apart and blow this opportunity, slim as it was. Should he win, Booker can tout his endorsements by AOC and Bernie while trying to win the general election in Kentucky. Am I missing something?

[cato]

To get this thread back on actual Congressional races, and not Presidential, I didn't realize that Amy McGrath actually had a valid challenger. The primary is a week away, and Charles Booker is apparently making some real headway in his quest to be the Dem nominee to run against Mitch McConnell.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/0...-senate-316201

Very interesting article, but I would like to have seen more info on where the race actually stands. I suppose polling on the D primary is scant, so the author didn’t cite any?

[OldPhiKap]

I just got an email from Susan Colins’ campaign, asking for money.

With only two weeks left of Q2, I must be completely honest with you: my opponent’s Far Left allies are severely outraising us. On top of that, my campaign is not on track to reach our fundraising goals for the quarter. For my campaign’s strategy to work, we must make June our most successful month to date.

[dudog84]

I just got an email from Susan Colins’ campaign, asking for money.

So her strategy is not working? Is she concerned?

[cato]

I just got an email from Susan Colins’ campaign, asking for money.

I have landed on some sort of Republican mailing list, and have been getting similar emails for other candidates. They all have the same tone of panic about a coming blue wave.

I mentioned this to a friend in NC who is apparently getting similar emails for Dem candidates.

It looks like everyone has concluded that fear is the best way into someone’s wallet these days.

[camion]

I have landed on some sort of Republican mailing list, and have been getting similar emails for other candidates. They all have the same tone of panic about a coming blue wave.

I mentioned this to a friend in NC who is apparently getting similar emails for Dem candidates.

It looks like everyone has concluded that fear is the best way into someone’s wallet these days.

I'm shocked, but not surprised.

[JasonEvans]

Want a sign of how bad things are for the GOP right now?

Alaska's 1st congressional district (it only has one) has been represented by Don Young since the Nixon administration. I'm serious. Young was elected in 1973 and is the longest serving current member of congress. He's won 24 consecutive elections, which is just insane.

In 2018, a year in which the Dems did about as well as they could in congressional races, Young still won reelection with relative ease, 53-46 over Alyse Galvin, an independent who has the backing of the Democratic party.

Well, a brand new poll today finds Galvin leading Young 43-42. If GOP candidates are going to do worse this time than they did in 2018 it could be a bloodbath.

[bundabergdevil]

Want a sign of how bad things are for the GOP right now?

Alaska's 1st congressional district (it only has one) has been represented by Don Young since the Nixon administration. I'm serious. Young was elected in 1973 and is the longest serving current member of congress. He's won 24 consecutive elections, which is just insane.

In 2018, a year in which the Dems did about as well as they could in congressional races, Young still won reelection with relative ease, 53-46 over Alyse Galvin, an independent who has the backing of the Democratic party.

Well, a brand new poll today finds Galvin leading Young 43-42. If GOP candidates are going to do worse this time than they did in 2018 it could be a bloodbath.

Well, Young ain't that. He's 87. Maybe time to consider a run for president?

[budwom]

I just got an email from Susan Colins’ campaign, asking for money.

LOL at "far left" in Maine. In fact, just look at a map, if you're "far left" in Maine, you're in New Hamster!

[CrazyNotCrazie]

Well, Young ain't that. He's 87. Maybe time to consider a run for president?

Can he run and drink water?

[dudog84]

I'm almost wondering if Bolton's book will have more impact on vulnerable R Senate races. Trump's numbers seem fairly immovable. But a D challenger might make points with the Senate Rs refusing to hear from Bolton or any other witnesses. Hard to believe that anyone would pull the lever for Biden and then their R Senator, so I expect to see fewer than normal split tickets. If Biden wins NC, it probably goes blue in the Senate. Of course, the opposite holds in Georgia, for example.

[JasonEvans]

I'm almost wondering if Bolton's book will have more impact on vulnerable R Senate races. Trump's numbers seem fairly immovable. But a D challenger might make points with the Senate Rs refusing to hear from Bolton or any other witnesses. Hard to believe that anyone would pull the lever for Biden and then their R Senator, so I expect to see fewer than normal split tickets. If Biden wins NC, it probably goes blue in the Senate. Of course, the opposite holds in Georgia, for example.

Ehhh, not so sure about that. I can certainly see a voter deciding there are things they don't like about Trump but that they still like other members of the Republican party. Also, a lot of voters like it when the balance of power is split in Washington so no one party can get everything they want. People root for gridlock because they think the government does more harm than good much of the time.

As for Bolton not testifying in the impeachment trial. I doubt many folks think at all about that event on election day. I mean, impeachment was more than 12 years ago, right? It sure feels like it.

[dudog84]

Ehhh, not so sure about that. I can certainly see a voter deciding there are things they don't like about Trump but that they still like other members of the Republican party. Also, a lot of voters like it when the balance of power is split in Washington so no one party can get everything they want. People root for gridlock because they think the government does more harm than good much of the time.

As for Bolton not testifying in the impeachment trial. I doubt many folks think at all about that event on election day. I mean, impeachment was more than 12 years ago, right? It sure feels like it.

It's all about the advertising. If I'm McGrath, Cunningham, Ossoff, etc. I'd be contacting The Lincoln Project for some help/ideas.

That's the point of advertising across the spectrum. You make people think about what you want them to think about.

Edit: Hadn't thought about this before, but that might be a long-term effect of Trump on the GOP. Rs are just better at messaging than the Ds are. He's chased a lot of good minds away from the party. Question is if they stay away. If Trump loses this year, there will be a fight for the party. His base is just too strong to go away quietly, because he sure won't. If he wins, little question the party is his. Of course if this happens, maybe those good minds that left aren't so good.

[CrazyNotCrazie]

Ehhh, not so sure about that. I can certainly see a voter deciding there are things they don't like about Trump but that they still like other members of the Republican party. Also, a lot of voters like it when the balance of power is split in Washington so no one party can get everything they want. People root for gridlock because they think the government does more harm than good much of the time.

As for Bolton not testifying in the impeachment trial. I doubt many folks think at all about that event on election day. I mean, impeachment was more than 12 years ago, right? It sure feels like it.

I think the split ticket is a thing of the past. Congress largely votes along party lines now. There were a lot of Republicans who actively opposed Trump and have completely fallen in line with him (see Graham, Lindsay). Congress is no longer a check and balance to the president. Also, look at all of the commentary from people who are hesitant to have Warren as VP for fear that the Republican governor of Mass. would put a Republican in her seat until a new election took place, even though the Governor is a RINO who has been very anti-Trump. In Congress, you are either pro-Trump or you're not - there doesn't seem to be a middle ground. And the anti-Trump Republicans need to figure out which table they want to sit at.

[sagegrouse]

I think the split ticket is a thing of the past. Congress largely votes along party lines now. There were a lot of Republicans who actively opposed Trump and have completely fallen in line with him (see Graham, Lindsay). Congress is no longer a check and balance to the president. Also, look at all of the commentary from people who are hesitant to have Warren as VP for fear that the Republican governor of Mass. would put a Republican in her seat until a new election took place, even though the Governor is a RINO who has been very anti-Trump. In Congress, you are either pro-Trump or you're not - there doesn't seem to be a middle ground. And the anti-Trump Republicans need to figure out which table they want to sit at.

I think a lot of Republican elected officials fell in line with El Presidente out of, well, fear of being attacked. My sense of Lindsay is that he sensed an opportunity -- Trump clearly needed help in all manner of areas -- Senate politics, national security, and lots of area of policy. Lindsay jumped in to help, gaining influence with Trump and enhancing his political stature, even thogh it required him to change and adapt long-held positions. When asked about his support for immigration and his friendships with Biden and McCain, didn't he say? "That was a long time ago."

[dudog84]

I think the split ticket is a thing of the past. Congress largely votes along party lines now. There were a lot of Republicans who actively opposed Trump and have completely fallen in line with him (see Graham, Lindsay). Congress is no longer a check and balance to the president. Also, look at all of the commentary from people who are hesitant to have Warren as VP for fear that the Republican governor of Mass. would put a Republican in her seat until a new election took place, even though the Governor is a RINO who has been very anti-Trump. In Congress, you are either pro-Trump or you're not - there doesn't seem to be a middle ground. And the anti-Trump Republicans need to figure out which table they want to sit at.

Unless you get 2/3 of the Senate...which isn't going to happen. Especially by the opposing party. So yes, you're right.

Compromise is largely gone. American's views are absolute, I'm right and you're wrong. So I want all my people in, and I'm all in on my people.

[Nick]

Incumbent in trouble in Democratic primary:

House Foreign Affairs Committee chair Eliot Engel’s three-decade tenure in Congress may be coming to an end.

According to new polling from Data for Progress, middle school principal and progressive congressional candidate Jamaal Bowman has cracked open a 10-point lead in his primary bid to unseat Eliot Engel, the 16-term incumbent in New York’s 16th district. In a survey conducted between June 11 and June 15, Bowman showed a commanding advantage, holding a 41-31 margin over Engel, with 27 percent undecided.

That surprisingly decisive advantage adds even more momentum to Bowman’s campaign, which in recent weeks has been designated as “surging” by various news outlets, including this one. It’s also a sign of remarkable strength at this stage of an election cycle. Two years ago, no public poll showed Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez within 30 points of establishment Congressman Joe Crowley, until Election Night. But Bowman is well ahead in the only poll released thus far in the race’s final stretch.

As one might expect, Bowman, who is running to Engel’s left, enjoys a considerable 43-17 lead with voters under 45, who tend to support progressives overwhelmingly. But Bowman is also winning voters over 45 by 6 percent, non-college-educated voters by 8 percent, college-educated voters by 9 percent, and female voters by 17 percent. His advantage is even more dominant when broken out by racial group: he’s winning Black voters by a startling 56-10 margin. Engel’s best demographic, meanwhile, is whites, who he’s winning 52-30 (it’s the only demographic he’s winning aside from men, who favor him by a 2 percent margin).

[JasonEvans]

New Kentucky poll finds Mitch not in any trouble at all. He's up 20 on McGrath and 14 on Booker.
http://filesforprogress.org/datasets...ok_2020_06.pdf

There may be a blue wave in the Senate races this fall, but it seems like the GOP leader will survive just fine.

-Jason "McConnell is 78... this is almost certainly his final race" Evans

[OldPhiKap]

-Jason "McConnell is 78... this is almost certainly his final race" Evans

Hell, Strom Thurmond was still having kids at that age.

(Well, 74 or so actually but you get the idea).

[jv001]

Per ESPN, 5 players and 3 staff members have tested positive for covid-19. Several players and staff members are waiting results of their tests. Looks like more and more players are testing positive. I may be wrong but I believe some hockey players tested positive recently.

Sorry, I thought I was on the Covid-19 thread.