2020 Congressional Elections

[CrazyNotCrazie]

Vermonters do, too. It happens in quite a few states I'd imagine.

In 2016, Clinton beat Trump in VT by 26 pts, 56-30, while Republican Phil Scott won the gubernatorial race by nine points, 53-44...that's a nice 35 point swing. When you're not pulling levers (and I'd bet most Montanans aren't) it's easy to split ballots.

New Jersey has also had its fair share of split ballots, with a number of Republican governors in recent years (Christie, Whitman, Kean). NY had Pataki serve three terms not too long ago. And Massachusetts is about as reliably blue as they get nationally but they have had Romney, Weld and their current governor as Republicans. Particularly with the Republican party, a national Republican and a Governor Republican can be very different things - in a number of blue states, a governor who is fiscally conservative/moderate but socially more liberal works well for the voters. I think there were some of these left in the House but they are largely gone now.

On the national level, there is an increasing awareness of linking the parties of the president and congress. I think there are a significant number of people (some in this thread) who like the idea of splitting their ballots to have congress serve as a check vs. the president. But seeing how the house and senate have increasingly been voting along party lines, this is something to be reconsidered.

[budwom]

New Jersey has also had its fair share of split ballots, with a number of Republican governors in recent years (Christie, Whitman, Kean). NY had Pataki serve three terms not too long ago. And Massachusetts is about as reliably blue as they get nationally but they have had Romney, Weld and their current governor as Republicans. Particularly with the Republican party, a national Republican and a Governor Republican can be very different things - in a number of blue states, a governor who is fiscally conservative/moderate but socially more liberal works well for the voters. I think there were some of these left in the House but they are largely gone now.

On the national level, there is an increasing awareness of linking the parties of the president and congress. I think there are a significant number of people (some in this thread) who like the idea of splitting their ballots to have congress serve as a check vs. the president. But seeing how the house and senate have increasingly been voting along party lines, this is something to be reconsidered.

good analysis...another example being Larry Hogan (R) in very blue Maryland. Our gov is a good example of your assertion, a socially moderate to liberal-ish guy (not many Rs like that left) whose fiscal restraint is appreciated here...

[JasonEvans]

I am pleased to revise my rankings in light of the strong support for future Senator Bullock.

1. Colorado R to D - 90%
2. Alabama D to R - 80%
3. Arizona R to D - 75%
4. North Carolina R to D - 60%
5. Maine R to D - 60%
6. Montana R to D - 60%
7. Iowa R to D - 55%
8. Georgia (regular) R to D - 45%
9. Georgia (special) R to D - 30%
10. Michigan D to R - 20%
11. Kansas R to D - 20%
12. Kentucky R to D - 15%
13. Texas R to D - 15%
14. Alaska R to D - 10%
15. South Carolina R to D - 10%

[dudog84]

Ok, now let's look at Alaska. Six years ago, R Dan Sullivan won the seat by 6,000 votes. Sure he has the power of incumbency this time, but...

Lisa Murkowski is very popular in Alaska. In 2010, after losing the R primary to a Palin-backed challenger, she won as a write-in candidate (this virtually never happens, ol' Strom is the only other one in 1954). In 2016, she won by over 47,000 votes.

Murkowski has taken some (rifle) shots at Trump in the past week, and as expected he has returned fire with a howitzer. I don't think that is going to go over well against Alaska's favorite daughter (Sorry, Sarah).

But Alaska is the only state I haven't been to, so what do I know?

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Ok, now let's look at Alaska. Six years ago, R Dan Sullivan won the seat by 6,000 votes. Sure he has the power of incumbency this time, but...

Lisa Murkowski is very popular in Alaska. In 2010, after losing the R primary to a Palin-backed challenger, she won as a write-in candidate (this virtually never happens, ol' Strom is the only other one in 1954). In 2016, she won by over 47,000 votes.

Murkowski has taken some (rifle) shots at Trump in the past week, and as expected he has returned fire with a howitzer. I don't think that is going to go over well against Alaska's favorite daughter (Sorry, Sarah).

But Alaska is the only state I haven't been to, so what do I know?

6K votes is like, half the population!

[JasonEvans]

6K votes is like, half the population!

Are you including bears in your census? There are a lot of bears in Alaska.

[bundabergdevil]

6K votes is like, half the population!

I think you mean $6K is what each resident used to get as state oil dividend back when oil prices were higher...

[dudog84]

Thought this was a pretty good article by the NYT on the SC race.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/elect...qAL?li=BBnb7Kz

[JasonEvans]

Here is a Bloomberg article on the senate races: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...-more-daunting

It doesn't really have anything we don't already know, though it talks a good bit about the Montana race. It includes this nugget about spending:

In late April, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee’s independent expenditure arm reserved millions of dollars in TV and digital advertising in four states. That includes $7.3 million in Iowa looking to topple Joni Ernst, $6.4 million in Arizona, $5.2 million in Montana and $11.7 million in North Carolina.

Republicans are mounting an expanded game of defense. The Senate Leadership Fund, a super-PAC aligned with McConnell, this month reserved $10.1 million for radio and TV air time in Montana. In March, the group announced it reserved a total of $67.1 million for TV ads in Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Maine, North Carolina and Kentucky, where McConnell himself will be on the ballot.

Two things to note from that. 1) The Democrats are not even putting all that much money into Colorado and Maine at this time because because they are so confident of flipping those seats. 2) The two sides will be spending more than $15 mil on advertising in Montana. Do you know what $15 mil can buy you in Montana air time?!?!?! You can put a :30 spot on a Butte-Bozeman TV station 3-4 times a day for a week for about $4000. And the national Dem/GOP senate folks are going to be airing $15 million worth of commercials!!!

[CrazyNotCrazie]

Here is a Bloomberg article on the senate races: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...-more-daunting

It doesn't really have anything we don't already know, though it talks a good bit about the Montana race. It includes this nugget about spending:



Two things to note from that. 1) The Democrats are not even putting all that much money into Colorado and Maine at this time because because they are so confident of flipping those seats. 2) The two sides will be spending more than $15 mil on advertising in Montana. Do you know what $15 mil can buy you in Montana air time?!?!?! You can put a :30 spot on a Butte-Bozeman TV station 3-4 times a day for a week for about $4000. And the national Dem/GOP senate folks are going to be airing $15 million worth of commercials!!!

Looks like Scripps was on to something when it bought nine Montana TV stations (mainly CBS affiliates) in late 2018 - this will be a big year for ad revenue there.

https://billingsgazette.com/news/loc...bfc81d3fe.html

[dudog84]

Alabama is having a brutal (childish? Sessions promises he will only "use small one-syllable words in a debate" with Tuberville) R primary...could this help Doug Jones come November?

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/elect...ma/ar-BB15oemH

Polling shows Tuberville with a solid lead, and obviously Trump's backing, but the run-off was forced when he only got 33% of the vote in March and Sessions was less than 2 points behind. Sessions is as cagey as a possum, I wouldn't count him out. Plus I miss Kate McKinnon's take on him.

[sagegrouse]

Here is a Bloomberg article on the senate races: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...-more-daunting

It doesn't really have anything we don't already know, though it talks a good bit about the Montana race. It includes this nugget about spending:



Two things to note from that. 1) The Democrats are not even putting all that much money into Colorado and Maine at this time because because they are so confident of flipping those seats. 2) The two sides will be spending more than $15 mil on advertising in Montana. Do you know what $15 mil can buy you in Montana air time?!?!?! You can put a :30 spot on a Butte-Bozeman TV station 3-4 times a day for a week for about $4000. And the national Dem/GOP senate folks are going to be airing $15 million worth of commercials!!!

I don't know what is going to happen in Colorado, but the presumptive favorite, moderate Gov. John Hickenlooper, did horribly this week in two back-to-back "from-home" debates against former state house speaker Andrew Romanoff. Hickenlooper was a popular two-term governor and also served eight years as mayor of Denver. Romanoff is staking out positions at least as far left as Bernie Sanders. At the second debate Hickenlooper's video barely worked -- his lips moved about two seconds after his words came out, making Hick look like an idiot. Romanoff's was studio-perfect.

Romanoff is popular with the Dem party faithful, but he hasn't won an election of any kind in ten years, losing to Michael Bennet in a primary for the U.S. Senate in 2010 and losing a congressional race to Mike Coffman in 2014.

Republican and Democratic organizations could see a Gardner-Romanoff race as quite competitive.

[dudog84]

This is from the Des Moines Register and an A+ poller. Ernst in trouble (down 3), which translates to trouble for Rs nationwide. This was not seen to be a competitive seat a few months ago.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/polit...te/ar-BB15rCiR

[cspan37421]

Plus I miss Kate McKinnon's take on him.

oh man I got Nosferatu vibes from that. Yikes.

[bundabergdevil]

This is from the Des Moines Register and an A+ poller. Ernst in trouble (down 3), which translates to trouble for Rs nationwide. This was not seen to be a competitive seat a few months ago.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/polit...te/ar-BB15rCiR

The Republican Lincoln Project that has been going after Trump is also Targeting Ernst, apparently. Thought they were just in it for DT.


https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/502125-george-conway-group-hits-ernst-in-new-ad

[dudog84]

The Republican Lincoln Project that has been going after Trump is also Targeting Ernst, apparently. Thought they were just in it for DT.


https://thehill.com/homenews/campaig...rnst-in-new-ad

They want their party back, I'm not sure they're going to get it. Whether Trump wins or loses. Unless of course it's a resounding defeat, and nobody here or elsewhere is predicting that.

There's all the talk about being "woke" on the left. It appears DJT woke something in a significant portion of this country.

[AustinDevil]

They want their party back, I'm not sure they're going to get it. Whether Trump wins or loses. Unless of course it's a resounding defeat, and nobody here or elsewhere is predicting that.

Trump has been down double digits in multiple nationwide polls. Absolute statements like yours are always easy to attack, but it's a huge stretch to say that "nobody" is predicting a resounding defeat for him and his party.

[dudog84]

Trump has been down double digits in multiple nationwide polls. Absolute statements like yours are always easy to attack, but it's a huge stretch to say that "nobody" is predicting a resounding defeat for him and his party.

The Electoral College is all that matters. Do you expect a blowout there? Large margins in CA and NY mean nothing. Now, if Biden can turn TX we can talk.

[bundabergdevil]

Ron Perlman Challenges Ted Cruz to $50,000 Fight in Support of Black Lives Matter


Maybe all elections should be decided this way?

2020, man...

[JasonEvans]

The Electoral College is all that matters. Do you expect a blowout there? Large margins in CA and NY mean nothing. Now, if Biden can turn TX we can talk.

Depends on the definition of a blow out.

If the result is never really in doubt (Biden wins Florida, Penn, Wiscy, Michigan, NC and Az, giving Biden 334 or so EVs) and the Dems also flip 5 or more senate seats then I think that could be considered a blow out. That could happen pretty easily in an election that Biden wins like 51-44. Does it need to be more like 350 EVs (meaning Biden also takes Georgia or Texas or some other surprise state) and 7+ senate seats with Biden winning the popular vote by 9 or 10 points for it to really be a blow out?