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  1. #201
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
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    Outside Philly
    Every man has his breaking point it's just that Jeff Sessions will let you knock him to the ground, kick him while he's there, rub his nose in a cow pie, and smile and say, "thank you sir, may I have another"....then a year later decide to stand up for himself in the most half-a**ed way possible.

    He'll get beat by the football coach and his public humiliation will be complete. What a way to end a career, utterly humiliated.

  2. #202
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    As mentioned in the Presidential thread, Steve King is out. He lost by almost 10 points, which is a pretty big trouncing for an incumbent and a larger margin than any of the polls had predicted. King's constituents probably did not like that the GOP leadership had utterly abandoned him, stripping him of all committee assignments for his outrageous comments.

    This result actually probably flips this seat from toss-up to a likely Republican seat. In 2018, King only won by 3 percentage points and there was a real chance he could lose the seat if he had won the GOP nomination again. Instead, Randy Feenstra will likely be a solid favorite in what is a largely Republican district.
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  3. #203
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
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    Outside Philly
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    As mentioned in the Presidential thread, Steve King is out. He lost by almost 10 points, which is a pretty big trouncing for an incumbent and a larger margin than any of the polls had predicted. King's constituents probably did not like that the GOP leadership had utterly abandoned him, stripping him of all committee assignments for his outrageous comments.

    This result actually probably flips this seat from toss-up to a likely Republican seat. In 2018, King only won by 3 percentage points and there was a real chance he could lose the seat if he had won the GOP nomination again. Instead, Randy Feenstra will likely be a solid favorite in what is a largely Republican district.
    Republican congressional leadership agrees with you.

    https://thehill.com/homenews/house/501056-gop-lawmakers-say-steve-kings-loss-could-help-them-in-november

  4. #204
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    New polls today from the senate races in Iowa and Kentucky. Iowa is fairly likely to be the tipping point seat for the senate. Democrats seems fairly likely to get pickups in Colorado, Arizona, and North Carolina and lose a seat in Alabama. Iowa and Maine are likely the next two most likely seats to flip.

    Anyway the Iowa poll finds the Democratic challenger Theresa Greenfield with a 48-45 lead over incumbent GOP Joni Ernst. The poll also finds Trump and Biden tied at 46, so Ernst is running behind Trump, which is not good. She also has a poor 39-52 favorability gap.

    Meanwhile, in Kentucky well-funded Democratic challenger Amy McGrath has a 1 point lead over Senate majority leader Mitch McConnell 41-40. Obviously, there are a lot of undecided voters in that poll and I just have a hard time seeing a Democrat winning that race, but McGrath is a very strong candidate.

    -Jason "if the Dems take the Kentucky senate seat, it will be part of a huge blue wave election... but I just don't see that happening" Evans
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  5. #205
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Undisclosed
    Someday, we’ll have elections in Georgia without voting problems.

    Looks like today is not that day. Parts of Atlanta are apparently total FUBAR.

  6. #206
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
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    Outside Philly
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    New polls today from the senate races in Iowa and Kentucky. Iowa is fairly likely to be the tipping point seat for the senate. Democrats seems fairly likely to get pickups in Colorado, Arizona, and North Carolina and lose a seat in Alabama. Iowa and Maine are likely the next two most likely seats to flip.

    Anyway the Iowa poll finds the Democratic challenger Theresa Greenfield with a 48-45 lead over incumbent GOP Joni Ernst. The poll also finds Trump and Biden tied at 46, so Ernst is running behind Trump, which is not good. She also has a poor 39-52 favorability gap.

    Meanwhile, in Kentucky well-funded Democratic challenger Amy McGrath has a 1 point lead over Senate majority leader Mitch McConnell 41-40. Obviously, there are a lot of undecided voters in that poll and I just have a hard time seeing a Democrat winning that race, but McGrath is a very strong candidate.

    -Jason "if the Dems take the Kentucky senate seat, it will be part of a huge blue wave election... but I just don't see that happening" Evans

    Sanders and AOC endorsed one of McGrath’s primary challengers, which must frustrate establishment Dems to say the least. This is the best opportunity Dems have had to unseat Mitch in a while and he’s been such a powerful operator against them you’d think Sanders and AOC might have sat this one out.

    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/501834-sanders-ocasio-cortez-endorse-progressive-democrat-running-against-mcgrath

  7. #207
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
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    Undisclosed
    Quote Originally Posted by bundabergdevil View Post
    Sanders and AOC endorsed one of McGrath’s primary challengers, which must frustrate establishment Dems to say the least. This is the best opportunity Dems have had to unseat Mitch in a while and he’s been such a powerful operator against them you’d think Sanders and AOC might have sat this one out.

    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaig...gainst-mcgrath
    Charles Booker was featured on MSNBC last night, too.

    Ah, the struggle between the mind and the heart . . . .

  8. #208
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
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    Outside Philly
    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap View Post
    Charles Booker was featured on MSNBC last night, too.

    Ah, the struggle between the mind and the heart . . . .
    If I'm Sanders and AOC the calculus is pretty simple: is the progressive agenda better off with or without Mitch and if it's 'without', then what's the best chance of making that happen?

    But, yeah, mind and hearts and peanut butter on pancakes and such.

  9. #209
    Join Date
    Dec 2014
    Location
    I'd tell ya, but then I'd have to kill ya
    Quote Originally Posted by bundabergdevil View Post
    If I'm Sanders and AOC the calculus is pretty simple: is the progressive agenda better off with or without Mitch and if it's 'without', then what's the best chance of making that happen?

    But, yeah, mind and hearts and peanut butter on pancakes and such.
    They probably figure, regardless of the polls, Mitch is not going to lose in Kentucky until he's no longer drawing breath. So they have to throw their supporters a bone here and there.

    McGrath is still going to win the primary, and there will be plenty of time to unite the Ds behind her. Mitch is even more unpopular than Don, so that won't be a problem.

  10. #210
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Vermont
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    New polls today from the senate races in Iowa and Kentucky. Iowa is fairly likely to be the tipping point seat for the senate. Democrats seems fairly likely to get pickups in Colorado, Arizona, and North Carolina and lose a seat in Alabama. Iowa and Maine are likely the next two most likely seats to flip.

    Anyway the Iowa poll finds the Democratic challenger Theresa Greenfield with a 48-45 lead over incumbent GOP Joni Ernst. The poll also finds Trump and Biden tied at 46, so Ernst is running behind Trump, which is not good. She also has a poor 39-52 favorability gap.

    Meanwhile, in Kentucky well-funded Democratic challenger Amy McGrath has a 1 point lead over Senate majority leader Mitch McConnell 41-40. Obviously, there are a lot of undecided voters in that poll and I just have a hard time seeing a Democrat winning that race, but McGrath is a very strong candidate.

    -Jason "if the Dems take the Kentucky senate seat, it will be part of a huge blue wave election... but I just don't see that happening" Evans
    People in Maine have the trebuchet all lined up for Susan Collins. It produces defenestration-like results without the window.

  11. #211
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    Quote Originally Posted by budwom View Post
    People in Maine have the trebuchet all lined up for Susan Collins. It produces defenestration-like results without the window.
    Ok, lets rank the senate seats most likely to flip. IMO, in order with percent chance of a flip:

    1. Colorado R to D - 90%
    2. Alabama D to R - 80%
    3. Arizona R to D - 75%
    4. North Carolina R to D - 60%
    5. Maine R to D - 60%
    6. Iowa R to D - 55%
    7. Georgia (regular) R to D - 45%
    8. Montana R to D - 45%
    9. Georgia (special) R to D - 30%
    10. Michigan D to R - 20%
    11. Kansas R to D - 20%
    12. Kentucky R to D - 15%
    13. Texas R to D - 15%
    14. South Carolina R to D - 10%

    I don't think any other seats are at all in danger.

    -Jason "how wrong am I?" Evans
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  12. #212
    Join Date
    Dec 2014
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    I'd tell ya, but then I'd have to kill ya
    Montana is better than 50%. Alaska may be in play, certainly more than 11 to 14.

  13. #213
    Join Date
    Nov 2014
    Location
    The People's Republic of Travis County
    Quote Originally Posted by dudog84 View Post
    Montana is better than 50%. Alaska may be in play, certainly more than 11 to 14.
    Totally agree; the Democratic, popular former Governor of Montana is not at 45%, but rather above 50.

  14. #214
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    Quote Originally Posted by AustinDevil View Post
    Totally agree; the Democratic, popular former Governor of Montana is not at 45%, but rather above 50.
    I hear ya but I feel like Trump is going to win Montana by 20+ points and I think it is asking a lot for a lot of Montanans to pull the GOP lever for president but the Democratic lever for senate. Most of the rankings seem to have Montana as a "lean Republican" ranking so my 45% (which is pretty much a toss-up) is more aggressive than the professional senate rankers.
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  15. #215
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
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    Vermont
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    I hear ya but I feel like Trump is going to win Montana by 20+ points and I think it is asking a lot for a lot of Montanans to pull the GOP lever for president but the Democratic lever for senate. Most of the rankings seem to have Montana as a "lean Republican" ranking so my 45% (which is pretty much a toss-up) is more aggressive than the professional senate rankers.
    small point but perhaps a real one: I bet they don't even have levers in Montana...same here...makes it much easier to split tickets...that's why we so often end up with a Republican winning the governor race by a wide margin, Demos or Progs winning congressional races by similarly wide margins...

  16. #216
    Join Date
    Dec 2014
    Location
    I'd tell ya, but then I'd have to kill ya
    Most recent Montana poll has D Bullock +7. Trump is +6 (in 2016 he won by 20.4, that's not happening again). Only 23% of those polled consider themselves Democrats. 18% considered themselves liberal, 44% conservative. Those are bad signs for Rs.

    http://helpslab.montana.edu/document...20_RELEASE.pdf

  17. #217
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Location
    Outside Philly
    The Montana State Society in DC in conjunction with the Montana delegation used to host an annual testy fest celebrating rocky mountain oysters and all thing Montana. Not of use to the state's 2020 prognostications but I always found it funny.

    Montana.jpg

  18. #218
    Join Date
    Nov 2014
    Location
    The People's Republic of Travis County
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    I hear ya but I feel like Trump is going to win Montana by 20+ points and I think it is asking a lot for a lot of Montanans to pull the GOP lever for president but the Democratic lever for senate. Most of the rankings seem to have Montana as a "lean Republican" ranking so my 45% (which is pretty much a toss-up) is more aggressive than the professional senate rankers.
    Quote Originally Posted by dudog84 View Post
    Most recent Montana poll has D Bullock +7. Trump is +6 (in 2016 he won by 20.4, that's not happening again). Only 23% of those polled consider themselves Democrats. 18% considered themselves liberal, 44% conservative. Those are bad signs for Rs.

    http://helpslab.montana.edu/document...20_RELEASE.pdf
    Bullock also won the gubernatorial election in 2012 by nine points, which is a 23-point swing versus Romney's win in the state over Obama by 14. In 2016, Bullock won by four, which was actually an even larger overall swing because Trump beat Clinton by 20 points.

    Montanans split ballots.

  19. #219
    Join Date
    Feb 2013
    Location
    Cambridge, MA
    Quote Originally Posted by AustinDevil View Post
    Bullock also won the gubernatorial election in 2012 by nine points, which is a 23-point swing versus Romney's win in the state over Obama by 14. In 2016, Bullock won by four, which was actually an even larger overall swing because Trump beat Clinton by 20 points.

    Montanans split ballots.
    I don't have any particular knowledge of Montana, so I wonder if there is something specific about the state that results in such a wild swing between the Presidential and Governor/Senate races.

    Going back further,

    - In 2008 McCain barely won Montana (2.5% margin), but Democrats Max Baucus (45.8% margin) and Brian Schweitzer (32.8%) easily won the Governor and Senate races.
    - In 2004 Bush won comfortably (20% margin), but Democrat Schweitzer won the Governor's race with a 4% margin.

    You have to go back to 2000 to find a race where one party won the Presidential and Governor/Senate races in Montana. Even then, there was a big difference in the margin of the presidential race (Bush won by a 25% margin) and the Governor and Senate races (each won by the Republican candidate with a 4% margin).

    I guess one of the key questions is whether Democrats will continue the trend from the two post-2016 US House elections. In 2018 and the 2017 special election, the D candidate came within 4.5 and 5.5% of winning. That's better than any D House candidate has done since 1994 and a swing of a more than 10% towards the Democrats vs 2016. If 2020 looks anything like 2017 or 2018, Bullock could well be the favorite.

  20. #220
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Vermont
    Quote Originally Posted by AustinDevil View Post
    Bullock also won the gubernatorial election in 2012 by nine points, which is a 23-point swing versus Romney's win in the state over Obama by 14. In 2016, Bullock won by four, which was actually an even larger overall swing because Trump beat Clinton by 20 points.

    Montanans split ballots.
    Vermonters do, too. It happens in quite a few states I'd imagine.

    In 2016, Clinton beat Trump in VT by 26 pts, 56-30, while Republican Phil Scott won the gubernatorial race by nine points, 53-44...that's a nice 35 point swing. When you're not pulling levers (and I'd bet most Montanans aren't) it's easy to split ballots.

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