2020 Congressional Elections

[JasonEvans]

The special election for the senate seat in Georgia will be a jungle primary taking place on Nov 3rd. It is almost certain that no one will get 50%+1 so there will be a runoff on January 5th.

It is early but Republican Congressman Doug Collins, a fierce defender of Trump during the impeachment process who has the backing of the President, seems very likely to get enough votes to qualify for the runoff. Incumbent Sen. Kelly Louffler, who was appointed to the position just a few months ago, is well-back of Collins. There are 6 Republicans and 8 Democrats running so I suppose it is possible that Louffler could come in second if the Democrats truly splinter all the blue votes but that seems somewhat unlikely. The three most likely Democratic contenders thus far seem to be Fmr. US Attorney Ed Tarver, Ebeneezer Baptist Church pastor Raphael Warnock, and Joe Liberman's son Matt Lieberman. It is still really early in this race in terms of the Democrats generating any attention (Collins and Louffler can get a lot of attention due to holding office) so there is really no way to say which of the Democrats will rise up to make it a bit of a race.

The game theory by the Dems in determining which seat to run for is fascinating. Could the Dem who loses the primary for Perdue's seat then hop over to run for the other seat?

Sadly no.

There had been talk that the qualifying deadline for the special election would be late enough to allow the losing candidate in the regular senate primary (featuring John Ossoff, Theressa Tomlinson, and Sarah Riggs Amico) to get into the jungle primary. But Ossoff, Tomlinson, and Riggs Amico are considered far better candidates than any Democrat in the special election field and the Republican secretary of state made the filing deadline early so none of them would get a shot at the other seat. Right now it appears Ossoff is riding his name recognition (ran a very high profile special election race soon after Trump was elected) and the backing John Lewis to lead the Dem field, but Tomlinson is close. I have heard all three of the candidates speak and came away very impressed with Tomlinson.

-Jason "the conventional wisdom is that the special election will be hard for the Dems to win because turnout tends to favor the GOP in Georgia without a Presidential race to drive Democratic turnout" Evans

[acdevil]

The special election for the senate seat in Georgia will be a jungle primary taking place on Nov 3rd. It is almost certain that no one will get 50%+1 so there will be a runoff on January 5th.

It is early but Republican Congressman Doug Collins, a fierce defender of Trump during the impeachment process who has the backing of the President, seems very likely to get enough votes to qualify for the runoff. Incumbent Sen. Kelly Louffler, who was appointed to the position just a few months ago, is well-back of Collins. There are 6 Republicans and 8 Democrats running so I suppose it is possible that Louffler could come in second if the Democrats truly splinter all the blue votes but that seems somewhat unlikely. The three most likely Democratic contenders thus far seem to be Fmr. US Attorney Ed Tarver, Ebeneezer Baptist Church pastor Raphael Warnock, and Joe Liberman's son Matt Lieberman. It is still really early in this race in terms of the Democrats generating any attention (Collins and Louffler can get a lot of attention due to holding office) so there is really no way to say which of the Democrats will rise up to make it a bit of a race.



Sadly no.

There had been talk that the qualifying deadline for the special election would be late enough to allow the losing candidate in the regular senate primary (featuring John Ossoff, Theressa Tomlinson, and Sarah Riggs Amico) to get into the jungle primary. But Ossoff, Tomlinson, and Riggs Amico are considered far better candidates than any Democrat in the special election field and the Republican secretary of state made the filing deadline early so none of them would get a shot at the other seat. Right now it appears Ossoff is riding his name recognition (ran a very high profile special election race soon after Trump was elected) and the backing John Lewis to lead the Dem field, but Tomlinson is close. I have heard all three of the candidates speak and came away very impressed with Tomlinson.

-Jason "the conventional wisdom is that the special election will be hard for the Dems to win because turnout tends to favor the GOP in Georgia without a Presidential race to drive Democratic turnout" Evans

That’s probably true of turnout in most specials, but if control of the Senate rests on that special election, all bets are off.

[dudog84]

Thanks bunches. Doesn't appear the Georgia D Party did much of a job sorting the contenders. Looking at the polling, that may be a golden opportunity lost. Kinda typical. Might've (long shot) even taken the jungle primary with a good candidate since the Rs will be split.

[JasonEvans]

Thanks bunches. Doesn't appear the Georgia D Party did much of a job sorting the contenders. Looking at the polling, that may be a golden opportunity lost. Kinda typical. Might've (long shot) even taken the jungle primary with a good candidate since the Rs will be split.

Naaah, Collins is going to get more than 30% in the first round. No way the Dems could find 2 candidates to outperform him and freeze the GOP out of runoff. Maybe if Louffler was more popular and could really split the GOP vote, but she's barely an incumbent and the stench of the stock trades looks really bad for her.

And the Dem problem getting good candidates stems from Georgia's long history as a GOP stronghold. There has not been a Dem who won state office in Georgia since Mark Taylor won the Lt, Governor's seat in 2002 (he was running as an incumbent). As a result, it is hard to find Democrats who generate much name recognition or accomplishments outside of the city of Atlanta. Look at the offices held by the folks running for these senate seats:

John Ossoff - never held elected office, was a staffer of John Lewis and ran for congress
Theresa Tomlinson - Columbus mayor, meaning she is basically unknown outside of Columbus
Sarah Riggs Amico - never held elected office, businesswoman who ran for Lt. Governor alongside Stacey Abrams
Matt Lieberman - never held elected office, businessman who is best known as a son of a Democratic defector
Ed Tarver - never held elected office, Fmr. US Attorney
Raphael Warnock - never held elected office, pastor of what used to be MLK's church

That's pretty lame.

In recent years the Democrats have put up the children of former Democratic success stories in an effort to find someone who had a bit of name recognition across the state. Michelle Nunn, the daughter of longtime Senator Sam Nunn, ran for Senate in 2014. That was the same year Jason Carter, Jimmy's grandson, ran for Governor. They both lost.

It would have been interesting to see if one of the congressional Dems from Georgia wanted to run for the senate seats. Gun control advocate Lucy McBath won in a pretty red suburban Atlanta district in 2018 and faces a tough re-election this year. I sorta wish she had given the senate seat a look but she had barely been in the House by the time the Senate race began in earnest. Most of the others seem to be quite comfortable with their House seats and have no desire to move up. The other congressmen also have a raft of problems from the standpoint of a state-wide race including various scandals and positions that make a bigger race not in the cards. I have long wished John Lewis would go for a Senate seat, but with his health that is not possible at this point.

-Jason "you know who should have run for the seat... Troublemaker*, though I don't think he has a ton in common with the Ga Democratic party" Evans

[dudog84]

Naaah, Collins is going to get more than 30% in the first round. No way the Dems could find 2 candidates to outperform him and freeze the GOP out of runoff. Maybe if Louffler was more popular and could really split the GOP vote, but she's barely an incumbent and the stench of the stock trades looks really bad for her.

I meant for the strong D candidate to get 50%+1. No runoff then, correct? Obvious long shot but maybe R voters who couldn't decide on Collins or Loeffler sit it out and say they'll just vote for the winner between those 2 vs the D. Collins as a strong Trump backer and Loeffler as badly damaged make it a (slim) possibility in a year when it should be a slam dunk for the Rs. Now that I understand how the races are working, it's a bit shocking that incumbent R Perdue in the other race is basically in a tie with 3 different Ds, none of whom is yet his opponent.

Agree, those ingredients are a pretty weak sauce the Ds are whipping up.

Does anybody know if Stacy Abrams has a strategy? I don't get it. Hail Mary for the VP slot? (she's not going to get it, I'd be shocked if she's in the top 5 for consideration)

Lastly, I seem to remember Collins getting flak from some Rs (the Senatorial Committee? Mitch?) when he came out to challenge incumbent Loeffler. Now that Loeffler is badly damaged, that's looking like a genius move.

[OldPhiKap]

Ed Tarver - never held elected office, Fmr. US Attorney

Small correction — Ed was a State Senator for a term or two from Augusta.

(Full disclosure: Ed was one of my law partners for about a decade or so).

[JasonEvans]

Small correction — Ed was a State Senator for a term or two from Augusta.

(Full disclosure: Ed was one of my law partners for about a decade or so).

You are absolutely right. My bad.

I think Ed is a fine candidate. He would be my choice among the weak Democratic field on the special election side.

God, I wish one of Tomlinson or Ossoff was running for the special election seat.

-Jason "well, I really wish Troublemaker* was running, but he's too late for the filing deadline" Evans

[CameronBornAndBred]

Burr-NC is getting a lot of press but he's not up this year, and I think there were a couple more.

I've thought lots about this. While I don't think Burr is going to get indicted nor resign in the coming months, he is under lots of pressure. So much so that he gave up his chairmanship of the Senate Intelligence Committee. That's pretty huge.
The FBI took his phone. That's way huge.

So...IF (huge huge if) something does come of it, and he steps down either this year or next, IF (again huge huge if) the Dems don't take the Senate this election cycle, they could if he leaves. Governor Roy Cooper has a healthy lead in the polls, and should that hold, and should Burr make an early exit, Cooper is planting a Dem in his spot.

Why might Burr actually resign? Well, he isn't running for re-election for one. He's said so, long before this scandal.
PS, just to make this post somewhat factual, in the NC Senate race that actually is happening, Thom Tillis ain't doing so hot. The polls are close, but most have him running behind Cunningham at a less than comfortable margin. (If NC goes Blue in the Senate, and Blue for the Governor, that doesn't bode well Trump taking the state either.)

[JasonEvans]

If NC goes Blue in the Senate, and Blue for the Governor, that doesn't bode well Trump taking the state either.

NC seems crazy to me. Are there really going to be a significant number of voters who go to the polls and pull the level for Cooper and Trump? Cooper is consistently polling above 50% in polls. You can't find a poll in the past month that has him below that mark... and that's with a fair number of folks still undecided. If I had to guess right now, I would expect Cooper to win with close to 55% of the vote.

Are there really 6+% of voters out there in NC who are going to pull the level for a Democratic governor and a Republican president?

-Jason "you know what these people are... they are all Troublemakers*" Evans

[JasonEvans]

As I have said, I am a Tomlinson fan in the GA senate race... but Ossoff's ad (which is basically just John Lewis talking about Ossoff) contains this image for a second or two. Again, this is an image in an ad for a man running for the US Senate.

IMG_6206.jpg

I'm seriously considering changing my support. Clearly, the Force is with John Ossoff.

[CameronBornAndBred]

-Jason "you know what these people are... they are all Troublemakers*" Evans

That might win for best JE tagline ever. It has to be for 2020. (Which is fitting.)

[construe]

Governor Roy Cooper has a healthy lead in the polls, and should that hold, and should Burr make an early exit, Cooper is planting a Dem in his spot.

I believe that in NC, the gov is required to replace a vacated seat with someone from the same party. (One of the myriad ways that the power of the governor has been weakened in this state...)

Are there really 6+% of voters out there in NC who are going to pull the level for a Democratic governor and a Republican president?

It already happened in 2016...but still your question is a good one...

[OldPhiKap]

*

This is seriously cracking me up.

[acdevil]

Construe is correct that cooper would have to pick from 3 republicans picked by the NC GOP I believe.

[CameronBornAndBred]

I believe that in NC, the gov is required to replace a vacated seat with someone from the same party. (One of the myriad ways that the power of the governor has been weakened in this state...)



It already happened in 2016...but still your question is a good one...

Construe is correct that cooper would have to pick from 3 republicans picked by the NC GOP I believe.

Most interesting. That would be a fun side squabble to watch.
Also, would it be far fetched to guess with NC's new map, that may be overturned with a Dem legislature? I'm legit asking. McCrory and the GOP legislature flipped NC in so many ways; was that in place before or part of their doing?

[JasonEvans]

Construe is correct that cooper would have to pick from 3 republicans picked by the NC GOP I believe.

So if the NC GOP put up Larry and his brother Darryl and his other brother Darryl then Cooper would have to pick one of them? Has the NC Supreme Court weighed in on the constitutionality of this arrangement?

Jason “I think we have found a senate seat perfect for my Troublemaking friend” Evans

[construe]

Also, would it be far fetched to guess with NC's new map, that may be overturned with a Dem legislature? I'm legit asking. McCrory and the GOP legislature flipped NC in so many ways; was that in place before or part of their doing?

I recall lots of legislation, and some state constitutional amendments, passing (or attempting to be passed) during McCrory's lame duck period, taking away powers from the governor that the Republicans had added only a few years before when the whole state had finally flipped. Some of it was challenged in court, but I think the upshot is that, right now, the NC state governor is quite weak relative to the position in other states.

Congressional and state districts were redrawn after all court cases were finally settled from the redistricting lawsuits, but my impression is that it's still pretty unlikely that the Dems will take over the legislature this year. It's possible that Thom Tillis' Senate seat might flip (and we'll see what happens with the remainders of Meadow's district), but I haven't checked polling for that in a while. To me, the NC Senate duo have both generally kept their profiles low nationally (except for Burr chairing the report supporting the claim of Russian interference in 2016), so it's funny they both are vulnerable/unpopular right now. Guess that's the new normal these days in Trump's GOP?

[dudog84]

This could be interesting...is the Alaska Senate seat in play?

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/elect...ue/ar-BB14tifV

Juneau of any Alaskans on the board who can provide some insight?

[Phredd3]

This could be interesting...is the Alaska Senate seat in play?

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/elect...ue/ar-BB14tifV

Juneau of any Alaskans on the board who can provide some insight?

I doubt that the seat is truly in play. Alaska is deep with a Last Frontier, stay-out-of-my-way mentality and votes very, very red on most issues. On the other hand, Alaska is weird in that it also has a lot of enthusiastic tree-hugger types who tend to be more fanatical about green causes than just about anywhere else in the country, and climate change is actually pretty visible in the state. Also, Alaska is very small in population, so outlier results are more likely. I have several friends both currently in and from Alaska, and while I haven't heard about Dr. Gross from them, I don't typically talk politics with them, either. I think I'll be trying to work that into a conversation.

But I definitely think a non-R win in Alaska is a long shot, at best.

[dudog84]

I doubt that the seat is truly in play. Alaska is deep with a Last Frontier, stay-out-of-my-way mentality and votes very, very red on most issues. On the other hand, Alaska is weird in that it also has a lot of enthusiastic tree-hugger types who tend to be more fanatical about green causes than just about anywhere else in the country, and climate change is actually pretty visible in the state. Also, Alaska is very small in population, so outlier results are more likely. I have several friends both currently in and from Alaska, and while I haven't heard about Dr. Gross from them, I don't typically talk politics with them, either. I think I'll be trying to work that into a conversation.

But I definitely think a non-R win in Alaska is a long shot, at best.

I thought that at first as well. But Murkowski (though the incumbent!) won as the write-in candidate 4 years ago. Imagine that. And the guy up for re-election only won the seat by 2.1 points last time.

Alaska seems to be a different animal. Anything you can glean from your friends would be appreciated, I find this very interesting.