2020 Congressional Elections

[bundabergdevil]

McSally down 17 points (17!) to Kelly in AZ, according to this poll. I figured Kelly would be a very strong candidate but that's a serious hole. Interestingly, the same poll has Biden up 8 so a 9 point set of mixed ballot voters.

I'm wondering if Kelly's appeal is strong enough to have some reverse coattails.

[OldPhiKap]

McSally down 17 points (17!) to Kelly in AZ, according to this poll. I figured Kelly would be a very strong candidate but that's a serious hole. Interestingly, the same poll has Biden up 8 so a 9 point set of mixed ballot voters.

I'm wondering if Kelly's appeal is strong enough to have some reverse coattails.

Maybe folks taking dumps on John McCain doesn't play well in Tempe, and abetting the dump-or is viewed even worse.

FWIW, Trump beat Clinton 48%-44.5% with the remaining 6.5% going to independents (including Johnson at 4%) and write-ins (1.2%). A lot shakier for Trump than I recalled.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_U...tewide_results

[CameronBornAndBred]

If any NC voters are interested, Tillis and Cunningham will be debating this Monday night at 7pm.

https://www.witn.com/2020/09/11/us-s...ay-on-witn-72/

[Acymetric]

If any NC voters are interested, Tillis and Cunningham will be debating this Monday night at 7pm.

https://www.witn.com/2020/09/11/us-s...ay-on-witn-72/

Thanks for the heads up, definitely interested (although I'll be busy watching Daniel Jones play around that time so I don't know how much of the debate I'll see live).

[CameronBornAndBred]

Thanks for the heads up, definitely interested (although I'll be busy watching Daniel Jones play around that time so I don't know how much of the debate I'll see live).

Ditto. Setting the DVR for the debate and hoping Jones makes the game worth watching.

[JasonEvans]

CNN has a new poll that finds the NC senate race closer than we have seen in a while. It has Cunningham up just one point on Tillis, 47-46. This could be the key race that determines control of the Senate next year. I think Colorado-D, Alabama-R, and Arizona-D are all flips for sure and Maine-D seems fairly likely too. There are plenty of other seats in danger on the GOP side, but it feels like NC is probably the tipping point state for the Senate.

https://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2020/images/09/15/rel1_nc.pdf

[CrazyNotCrazie]

Ditto. Setting the DVR for the debate and hoping Jones makes the game worth watching.

Did you watch the debate? Anything interesting?

[Phredd3]

Did you watch the debate? Anything interesting?

I watched a portion of it. I have to say, Tillis did very well, and on occasion Cunningham did not look like he had a good answer. I expected a lawyer to be a better debater one-on-one than that. I will also say that I felt moderator David Crabtree seemed pro-Tillis during the segment I watched, which also hurt Cunningham on occasion. However, I freely admit that my sample may not have been fully representative, and my perception may have been more a question of Crabtree falling back on his "hard-hitting reporter" instincts, which doesn't always work in a debate setting.

The biggest moment by far during the time I watched was when Cunningham said he'd be "hesitant" to take a COVID vaccine that was released before the end of the year, and Tillis called him out on it in a big way. Tillis made him seem like he was undermining the FDA and being an anti-vaxxer at the same time. Not a good look for Cunningham, for sure.

[CameronBornAndBred]

Did you watch the debate? Anything interesting?

Apparently I don't know how to DVR politics. Thought I recorded it, but nope.

I watched a portion of it. I have to say, Tillis did very well, and on occasion Cunningham did not look like he had a good answer. I expected a lawyer to be a better debater one-on-one than that. I will also say that I felt moderator David Crabtree seemed pro-Tillis during the segment I watched, which also hurt Cunningham on occasion. However, I freely admit that my sample may not have been fully representative, and my perception may have been more a question of Crabtree falling back on his "hard-hitting reporter" instincts, which doesn't always work in a debate setting.

The biggest moment by far during the time I watched was when Cunningham said he'd be "hesitant" to take a COVID vaccine that was released before the end of the year, and Tillis called him out on it in a big way. Tillis made him seem like he was undermining the FDA and being an anti-vaxxer at the same time. Not a good look for Cunningham, for sure.

Thanks for that update. I'm hoping it is available for replay online. I wonder how many people watch congressional/gubernatorial debates. I can only remember to tuning in to Cooper/McCrory, and I am pretty sure that I didn't last all of it.

[JasonEvans]

Hot off the presses, just released Quinnipiac polls in three senate races: https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/s...020_bgjm67.pdf

MAINE: Gideon 54%, Collins 42%
SOUTH CAROLINA: Graham 48%, Harrison 48%
KENTUCKY: McConnell 53%, McGrath 41%

12 points is a big deficit for Collins and it appears Lindsay Graham could be in real trouble from Jamie Harrison. Graham had been loudly calling on Harrison to release his tax returns, so Harrison did and then said to Graham "and why aren't you also calling on President Trump to also released his tax returns?" A reporter asked Graham that same question and Graham ignored it.

Mitch is safe, we all know that.

[CameronBornAndBred]

Mark Kelly is up 10 points over McSally in Arizona. That is another guaranteed flip for the Dems.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/mark-kell...143400101.html

[Kdogg]

Hot off the presses, just released Quinnipiac polls in three senate races: https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/s...020_bgjm67.pdf



12 points is a big deficit for Collins and it appears Lindsay Graham could be in real trouble from Jamie Harrison. Graham had been loudly calling on Harrison to release his tax returns, so Harrison did and then said to Graham "and why aren't you also calling on President Trump to also released his tax returns?" A reporter asked Graham that same question and Graham ignored it.

Mitch is safe, we all know that.

Hey, I’m part of that poll! This is the first real fight Graham has had in decades. He, the State GOP and outside PACs are spending a ton of money on mailers and TV ads in the last month. Got a mailer today with him and Trump telling me the safest way to vote was by absentee ballot and included multiple post cards to request an application. It also actually says mail in voting is bad but absentee is good. The state is going to approve absentee voting without an excuse any day now.

[camion]

Hey, I’m part of that poll! This is the first real fight Graham has had in decades. He, the State GOP and outside PACs are spending a ton of money on mailers and TV ads in the last month. Got a mailer today with him and Trump telling me the safest way to vote was by absentee ballot and included multiple post cards to request an application. It also actually says mail in voting is bad but absentee is good. The state is going to approve absentee voting without an excuse any day now.

I'm in SC and this summer I used the old fart route to request an absentee ballot. We shall see how it goes.

I just can't see a majority of the SC voters actually going against Graham. This is SC after all.

[Kdogg]

I'm in SC and this summer I used the old fart route to request an absentee ballot. We shall see how it goes.

I just can't see a majority of the SC voters actually going against Graham. This is SC after all.

Agreed. A Democratic hasn’t won since Fritz and he was a Dem from a different era. Graham is concerned that he will face a situation Doug Jones situation. If Black voters come out in numbers it will be interesting.

[CrazyNotCrazie]

Agreed. A Democratic hasn’t won since Fritz and he was a Dem from a different era. Graham is concerned that he will face a situation Doug Jones situation. If Black voters come out in numbers it will be interesting.

Yup. SC is 27% black. I hate to generalize that a specific group all votes a certain way, but if they do all show up to vote and consistently vote for Harrison, that could have a huge impact on the race.

[budwom]

Senator Collins had an especially poor debate performance the other day...

[OldPhiKap]

Senator Collins had an especially poor debate performance the other day...

Color me concerned.

[wavedukefan70s]

Hot off the presses, just released Quinnipiac polls in three senate races: https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/s...020_bgjm67.pdf



12 points is a big deficit for Collins and it appears Lindsay Graham could be in real trouble from Jamie Harrison. Graham had been loudly calling on Harrison to release his tax returns, so Harrison did and then said to Graham "and why aren't you also calling on President Trump to also released his tax returns?" A reporter asked Graham that same question and Graham ignored it.

Mitch is safe, we all know that.

Probably the safest play was to ignore it.rather than risk a bad answer.
Graham has sent people door to door in my area.
The vibe is that he will be challenged.
But im not sure how serious the challenge may be.

[JasonEvans]

538 has launched their senate model... pardon me while I geek out for a moment!

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...recast/senate/

The model gives the Dems a 58% chance of winning the senate.

Here is how they rate the the close races for GOP seats:

AZ - 78% chance of flip from GOP to Dem
CO - 68% chance of flip from GOP to Dem
NC - 62% chance of flip from GOP to Dem
ME - 53% chance of flip from GOP to Dem
IO - 41% chance of flip from GOP to Dem
MT - 32% chance of flip from GOP to Dem
GA - 26% chance of flip from GOP to Dem
KS - 22% chance of flip from GOP to Dem
GA (sp) - 17% chance of flip from GOP to Dem
SC - 15% chance of flip from GOP to Dem
AK - 13% chance of flip from GOP to Dem
TX - 11% chance of flip from GOP to Dem
KY - 4% chance of flip from GOP to Dem

And the Dem seats in some trouble:

AL - 72% chance of flip from Dem to GOP
MI - 19% chance of flip from Dem to GOP
MN - 8% chance of flip from Dem to GOP
NM - 5% chance of flip from Dem to GOP

[elvis14]

Probably the safest play was to ignore it.rather than risk a bad answer.
Graham has sent people door to door in my area.
The vibe is that he will be challenged.
But im not sure how serious the challenge may be.

LOL, I would pay $$ for someone to come to my door and ask me to vote for Graham (or since I'm in NC, Tillis). I think I'd ask them to hold on for a second while I got my phone and started taking video. Please let that happen!