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  1. #81
    Join Date
    Dec 2010
    Location
    Carolina Beach
    Quote Originally Posted by jimsumner View Post
    The last time the world under-estimated a Mike-Krzyzewski coached team was 1987. That said, I didn't go into every season with Great Expectations. 2007 for example. No plausible case could be made going into the season for that team making a deep March run. 1996, K-'s comeback year, also fits that narrative. But those are the only two seasons since 1987 that I thought Duke might be overmatched going into the season.
    And that 87 Team is one of my favorite. We were going to fall from that painful NC loss to the bottom of the conference..

  2. #82
    Quote Originally Posted by SouthernDukie View Post
    I beg to differ. I said Tre's three and two point shooting suffered, and Kedsy provided evidence that I was right (even though the percentage was close).
    I wasn't going to jump back into this, but here I am. The evidence I provided in NO way supported your statement that Tre's shooting suffered after the injury. I haven't run a full statistical analysis, but given the sample sizes involved, Tre's shooting was virtually identical before and after the injury. It did not suffer at all. That evidence does not suggest you were right. Period.

    Quote Originally Posted by SouthernDukie View Post
    And as others have mentioned, without doing a lot more digging beyond box score stats, there's no way to know just how many more 3's Tre got that were wide open vs closely guarded.
    Here's the thing about this one, does anybody remember Tre taking closely guarded shots before the injury? My recollection is he only took open shots, before and after. The fact that nobody guarded him beyond the three-point line is undoubtedly why he attempted almost twice as many threes per game after the injury than before. But unless someone can show me evidence that before the injury he took a significant percentage of closely guarded shots, I don't think the "they stopped guarding him" argument would have affected his success percentages in any significant way.

    Quote Originally Posted by SouthernDukie View Post
    And no one has been able to disprove my point about his 2 point shooting.
    I don't recall what your point was, but Tre's two-point percentages were virtually identical before and after his injury.

    Quote Originally Posted by SouthernDukie View Post
    I remember him hitting those floaters in the lane with much more regularity pre-injury compared to post-injury.
    I don't have these stats available now, but at some point mid-season I checked his two-point jumper percentage (which would probably include a fair percentage of floaters in the lane), and it was much worse than I thought it would be. Less than 30%, if I remember correctly, which I'm pretty sure I do.


    Quote Originally Posted by SouthernDukie View Post
    Also disagree about pivoting to defense. Just because I didn't bring it up initially doesn't mean I didn't also notice a drop off there from Tre. And again, this is all perfectly understandable after an injury like that. It is what it is. But there was no pivot to cover up another point. At least not with me. That dog just won't hunt.
    My eyes also told me that Tre's defense was not quite as good post-injury. The problem is it's so difficult to assess how much that affected our team defense. It's clear our forced turnover percentage decreased, starting with that Syracuse game, and I'm sure some of that decrease was due to injuries, but when I say that I mean key defenders missing games. Tre missed three, Cam missed two, Zion missed six, Marques missed three. With all those missed games, it's really hard to pin the problem on Tre playing post-injury. Especially since our competition was so much better in the latter part of the season vs. the early season. And by the time the post-season rolled around and we had two major turnover clunkers (UNC in the ACCT and Mich St in the NCAAT), Tre had been back on the court for two months. So sure, maybe Tre not being fully healthy (assuming he wasn't mostly healthy) contributed to our lack of forced turnovers, but there's no reason to believe it was a major contributor, compared to other factors.

  3. #83
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    My eyes also told me that Tre's defense was not quite as good post-injury. The problem is it's so difficult to assess how much that affected our team defense. It's clear our forced turnover percentage decreased, starting with that Syracuse game, and I'm sure some of that decrease was due to injuries, but when I say that I mean key defenders missing games.
    Thanks, Kedsy. I'll close down my end of this by stating that all I was doing initially is responding to the thought that Tre's injury was, as opposed to the other injuries and issues, the defining moment of the season. 4 minutes into that Syracuse game I saw us as the best team in the nation - hands down. Our defense, led by Tre's incredible ball pressure, was as good as I had seen in quite some time. We were clicking on all cylinders, to use an old cliche (sorry, can't figure the code for the accent over the "e"). And after that injury we never returned to normal. I did emphasize his O, especially his shooting, when I should have also emphasized his D. My bad for that.

    But the bottom line of my initial post was that - to me - this was the moment of the season when we took a step back that we never recovered from. And there's no blame on Tre for this. I hope you didn't read that into my posts because nothing could be further from the truth. Injuries are part of the game. It is what it is. But there was certainly no desire on my end to get into a long debate about all this. Then again I guess that's what DBR is all about.

    Switching gears and getting on to next season: I'm very optimistic. With Tre back I believe we will have an very good season and I don't see why expectations need to be subdued. I look forward to another fun year rooting for my Blue Devils!

  4. #84
    Join Date
    Jun 2009
    Location
    Durham
    Quote Originally Posted by SouthernDukie View Post
    But there was certainly no desire on my end to get into a long debate about all this. Then again I guess that's what DBR is all about.
    Of course thatís what itís all about. And donít ever think otherwise.

  5. #85
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Raleigh, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by Steven43 View Post
    Of course thatís what itís all about. And donít ever think otherwise.
    I thought the Hokey Pokey was what it's all about.

  6. #86
    Quote Originally Posted by jimsumner View Post
    I thought the Hokey Pokey was what it's all about.
    Now is not the time to discuss Hokey Pokey control.

  7. #87
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    Lewisville, NC
    If you want to get a look at Tre's current health and conditioning, check out the video of his workout with Jon Scheyer posted in the "Duke 19-20 Team Summer workouts" thread.

  8. #88
    Quote Originally Posted by SouthernDukie View Post
    But the bottom line of my initial post was that - to me - this was the moment of the season when we took a step back that we never recovered from. And there's no blame on Tre for this. I hope you didn't read that into my posts because nothing could be further from the truth. Injuries are part of the game. It is what it is.
    That is the bottom line, receipt or no receipt. A clear, undeniable and red flashing light inflection point. Not the only inflection point...there were other ups and downs of course - but that was THE point of no return.
    Don't waste your time on House of Cards S6!
    -We found out Frank was critical to making anyone else in the show interesting...not a surprise...

  9. #89
    Quote Originally Posted by Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15 View Post
    Now is not the time to discuss Hokey Pokey control.
    You got stats on that or do we have to log on to KenPom?

  10. #90
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Location
    Cary, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by roywhite View Post
    If you want to get a look at Tre's current health and conditioning, check out the video of his workout with Jon Scheyer posted in the "Duke 19-20 Team Summer workouts" thread.
    I enjoyed that video, but it didnít tell me much about Treís health and certainly nothing about his conditioning. He is capable of doing individual drills and dribbling with both hands. But is he cleared for full contact? Can he scrimmage with the team?

  11. #91
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    Lewisville, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by UrinalCake View Post
    I enjoyed that video, but it didn’t tell me much about Tre’s health and certainly nothing about his conditioning. He is capable of doing individual drills and dribbling with both hands. But is he cleared for full contact? Can he scrimmage with the team?
    Tre passed the eye test for me. And I liked the comments of Jon Scheyer:

    "He's looking great...he's gotten healthy...he's more athletic... he's gotten better...watch out for Tre Jones"

  12. #92
    Quote Originally Posted by Furniture View Post
    One more time...

    Watch out for Jon Scheyer.
    Nothing incites bodily violence quicker than a Duke fan turning in your direction and saying 'scoreboard.'

  13. #93
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Location
    Cary, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by roywhite View Post
    Tre passed the eye test for me. And I liked the comments of Jon Scheyer:
    Really looking forward to seeing Tre this year. Itís been forever since weíve had an incumbent starting point guard, to the extent that many of us barely remember what itís like to have a coach on the floor who isnít learning everything for the first time. Heíll have the keys to the team and weíll go as far as he takes us.

  14. #94
    Quote Originally Posted by UrinalCake View Post
    Really looking forward to seeing Tre this year. Itís been forever since weíve had an incumbent starting point guard, to the extent that many of us barely remember what itís like to have a coach on the floor who isnít learning everything for the first time. Heíll have the keys to the team and weíll go as far as he takes us.
    I agree with you about Tre, I think weíre going to see a much better player than we last year (and he was really good last year, other than his shooting).

    But it may be worth noting that the last four times we went into a season with an incumbent starting point guard were 2013-14, 2008-09, 2007-08, and 2006-07. Not exactly a litany of NCAA tournament success.

  15. #95
    Join Date
    Dec 2010
    Location
    Carolina Beach

    Smile

    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post

    But it may be worth noting that the last four times we went into a season with an incumbent starting point guard were 2013-14, 2008-09, 2007-08, and 2006-07. Not exactly a litany of NCAA tournament success.
    Well... just when I was feeling good Kedsy. Dang...

  16. #96
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    New York, NY
    Iíd say Treís injury was the 3rd most important.

    #2. Zionís absence meant the team didnít get the reps to seamlessly include a unique player in a half court offense. Before Texas Tech, it didnít matter bc he was so good, but later teams figured out our offense. No one could neutralize him completely, but teams figured ways to mitigate in crunch time.


    #1. One could argue that Camís lingering leg injury prevented him from being one of the very best shooters in college. If his outside shot had been falling, and heíd been able to play to the form that makes pro scouts drool, we wouldnít be talking Tre Jones jumpshotóweíd be worrying about the likelihood of a repeat.

  17. #97
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    I agree with you about Tre, I think weíre going to see a much better player than we last year (and he was really good last year, other than his shooting).

    But it may be worth noting that the last four times we went into a season with an incumbent starting point guard were 2013-14, 2008-09, 2007-08, and 2006-07. Not exactly a litany of NCAA tournament success.
    Those pesky facts keep ruining things!

  18. #98
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Richmond, VA

    late to the conversation

    I must admit I have not read the entire thread...too busy with golf, hiking, staying cool and enjoying the summer.

    So my thoughts...

    We often get confused with goals, expectations and accomplishments when looking at each season.

    Goals are always the same for Duke basketball ...
    1) win the National Championship,
    2) play in the Final 4 (can't meet the first goal without this goal),
    3) play in the Elite 8 (can't meet the other two goals without this),
    4) get a Number 1 seed (this helps make the first 3 goals easier to achieve),
    5) win the ACC tournament (this helps to achieve goal 4)
    6) win the ACC regular season (this helps to achieve goal 4 and 5)
    7) Place in the top 4 of the ACC (this gives several byes in the ACC tournament that makes 4 and 5 easier to achieve
    8) Beat UNC everytime we play them (this might actually be a more important goal than 4, 5, 6 or 7)
    9) win all of the non-conference regular season games (this helps with goal 4)
    10) win every game that is played (this helps with all other goals)

    These are tangible items that are analytical, measurable and unemotional.

    Goals such as getting better every day; improving team defense; improving FT percentage etc are probably on each player's and the team's list of goals but hard for us to exactly know so hard for us to measure.

    These are NOT accomplishments until they are achieved.

    What gets our emotions involved is when we EXPECT these goals. We are elated when we don't expect a team to meet one of these goals and they accomplish something unexpected. We are also disappointed (emotional response) when we make a judgement of what we think the team can achieve and they don't meet that goal. Unfortunately we change our judgment as each season progresses.

    I did read in this thread that our expectations of 2018-19 changed once Duke beat Ky. We failed to account for the fact that the team relied on talented freshman and one injury or two could derail meeting some of the goals.

    So for this year try an experiment that I have tried ever since 2015. I emotionally want every team to achieve all 10 goals. However, I write down what would make me happy (emotional expectations) before the season begins. In fact right now put that list on a piece of paper and see what happens at the end of the season.

    So here are my 2019-20 expectations.

    1. Win the ACC regular season (this would also cover finishing in the top 4)
    2. Have not seen the complete non-conference schedule but win all non-conference regular season games
    3. Beat UNC everytime we play them (this is always on my list even if it is 1994-95)
    4. Make the Elite 8

  19. #99
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Manhattan
    Quote Originally Posted by weezie View Post
    One more time...

    Watch out for Jon Scheyer.
    Not to analogize too much with the baby blues, but I really think he'll be the Roy to K's Dean when all is said and done.

    And if Tre gets a jumper even like Tyus, it's game over.

  20. #100
    Join Date
    Jun 2009
    Location
    Durham
    Quote Originally Posted by MarkD83 View Post
    I must admit I have not read the entire thread...too busy with golf, hiking, staying cool and enjoying the summer.
    Sounds like you have a pretty good thing going on. Why would you kill it by joining back up with us?

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