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  1. #61
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    I'm saying I don't know how much (if any) of the difference was caused by injuries. And neither does anybody else.
    If any? Tre Jones, the point of the spear on D, had hip and hernia surgeries after the season. I think it is safe to say that his injuries impacted Dukeís D. How much? I agree that is unknowable.

  2. #62
    I'm with Kedsy here -- he's usually right, and no reason to believe he's not right here.

    Someone made an argument that Tre's shooting dropped off after his injury, and Kedys came through with stats showing that wasn't the case. So folks pivoted, saying instead it must be that Tre's defense suffered after the injury. Kedsy turned around and explained there's no clear evidence showing that any decline in team defense was due to Tre's injury (or any individual decline in defense), as opposed to the competition getting better as the season went on.

    Kedsy always brings receipts. He has the stats to back up what he's saying, and rarely goes beyond what he has evidence for.

    He's sometimes wrong. You might be able to supply evidence--clips from games, quotes from players, analysis from other sources, etc.--that shows your explanation is better than his, and some phenomenon not captured by the currently available stats is at play.

    But, in general, when deciding between the person with evidence and the person who says "just trust me, it's what I saw/felt/believe," I'm going with the person with evidence. And so far Kedsy has brought the evidence.

    Keep fighting the good fight.

    (All of this was in lieu of my ability to spork Kedsy right now)

  3. #63
    Quote Originally Posted by Truth&Justise View Post
    I'm with Kedsy here -- he's usually right, and no reason to believe he's not right here.

    Someone made an argument that Tre's shooting dropped off after his injury, and Kedys came through with stats showing that wasn't the case. So folks pivoted, saying instead it must be that Tre's defense suffered after the injury. Kedsy turned around and explained there's no clear evidence showing that any decline in team defense was due to Tre's injury (or any individual decline in defense), as opposed to the competition getting better as the season went on.

    Kedsy always brings receipts. He has the stats to back up what he's saying, and rarely goes beyond what he has evidence for.

    He's sometimes wrong. You might be able to supply evidence--clips from games, quotes from players, analysis from other sources, etc.--that shows your explanation is better than his, and some phenomenon not captured by the currently available stats is at play.

    But, in general, when deciding between the person with evidence and the person who says "just trust me, it's what I saw/felt/believe," I'm going with the person with evidence. And so far Kedsy has brought the evidence.

    Keep fighting the good fight.

    (All of this was in lieu of my ability to spork Kedsy right now)
    I think missing those games stunted Tre's development a bit to the point that other teams were slacking off him and daring him to shoot. Had he not gotten hurt, he might have had time to make adjustments to his shooting to make other teams pay for slacking off him. Also, as a result of his team off, RJ become more of the primary handler and that also changed the team's dynamic. Add in the time without Zion and Cam and Jack's nose dive, it was not surprising that they could not get to the FF. Still and all, it really was a fun season.

  4. #64
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Raleigh, NC
    My question is: do the shooting statistics show take into account unguarded shots? In the beginning of the season teams played us more straight up. As the season went on, teams started leaving Tre to go double RJ and Zion. Since he was giving wide open shots his shooting percentage should have gone up considerably as the season went on (assuming the assumption that the shoulder injury had no effect on his shooting). If the stats to take into effect unguarded shots vs guarded shots then it's true that his shooting didn't get worse...

  5. #65
    Quote Originally Posted by Truth&Justise View Post
    So folks pivoted, saying instead it must be that Tre's defense suffered after the injury. Kedsy turned around and explained there's no clear evidence showing that any decline in team defense was due to Tre's injury (or any individual decline in defense), as opposed to the competition getting better as the season went on.

    Kedsy always brings receipts. He has the stats to back up what he's saying, and rarely goes beyond what he has evidence for.
    No one has presented any ďevidenceĒ that Dukeís decline in forcing turnovers was caused by facing better competition (or exposure). There are no receipts. Just opinions.
    Carolina delenda est

  6. #66
    Join Date
    Jun 2009
    Location
    Durham
    Quote Originally Posted by Truth&Justise View Post
    Kedsy always brings receipts. He has the stats to back up what he's saying, and rarely goes beyond what he has evidence for.
    Stats often provide only a partial glimpse into the truth as far as sports goes. Simply looking at box score stats and thinking you are getting definitive answers to player value is just silly. Iím not saying anyone here is doing that and Iím not singling anyone out.

  7. #67
    Better 3 point shooting and floor spacing. Senior big man leadership. An excellent and experienced point guard. Ten players competing and worthy of playing time.

    Iím definitely expecting a Final Four just like I do every preseason. Too old to change now.

  8. #68
    Quote Originally Posted by Truth&Justise View Post
    I'm with Kedsy here -- he's usually right, and no reason to believe he's not right here.

    Someone made an argument that Tre's shooting dropped off after his injury, and Kedys came through with stats showing that wasn't the case. So folks pivoted, saying instead it must be that Tre's defense suffered after the injury. Kedsy turned around and explained there's no clear evidence showing that any decline in team defense was due to Tre's injury (or any individual decline in defense), as opposed to the competition getting better as the season went on.

    Kedsy always brings receipts. He has the stats to back up what he's saying, and rarely goes beyond what he has evidence for.

    He's sometimes wrong. You might be able to supply evidence--clips from games, quotes from players, analysis from other sources, etc.--that shows your explanation is better than his, and some phenomenon not captured by the currently available stats is at play.

    But, in general, when deciding between the person with evidence and the person who says "just trust me, it's what I saw/felt/believe," I'm going with the person with evidence. And so far Kedsy has brought the evidence.

    Keep fighting the good fight.

    (All of this was in lieu of my ability to spork Kedsy right now)
    I beg to differ. I said Tre's three and two point shooting suffered, and Kedsy provided evidence that I was right (even though the percentage was close). And as others have mentioned, without doing a lot more digging beyond box score stats, there's no way to know just how many more 3's Tre got that were wide open vs closely guarded. And no one has been able to disprove my point about his 2 point shooting. I remember him hitting those floaters in the lane with much more regularity pre-injury compared to post-injury. But whatever. No one is going to convince anyone else - what else is new here.

    Also disagree about pivoting to defense. Just because I didn't bring it up initially doesn't mean I didn't also notice a drop off there from Tre. And again, this is all perfectly understandable after an injury like that. It is what it is. But there was no pivot to cover up another point. At least not with me. That dog just won't hunt.

  9. #69
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Location
    Cary, NC
    I thought the team's defense got worse as the season went on as well. Hard to know how much was due to increased level of competition and other teams having the scouting report on us. Also in the post-season the pace tends to slow down as teams protect the ball better. Our lineup absolutely feasted off live-ball turnovers as we had the two best transition finishers in the country, but we stopped creating as many turnovers as the season progressed. At least that's how it felt to me, perhaps Kedsy or someone else could provide numbers to disprove what I think I saw.

    Tre was still an excellent one-on-one defender, he held guys like Shamorie Ponds from St. John's and the little dude from Miami to terrible shooting performances. But we didn't seem to have the same aggressiveness on D that we showed early on, especially in big games like Kentucky and Texas Tech. (That TT game was one of the most underrated games of the season, we beat an incredible team after falling way behind and it was kind of Jack White's coming out party). Tre's injury in the first Syracuse game felt like a turning point, but it might have just been coincidental that the schedule got more real after that.

  10. #70
    Quote Originally Posted by UrinalCake View Post
    Tre's injury in the first Syracuse game felt like a turning point, but it might have just been coincidental that the schedule got more real after that.
    Does it have to be either/or? Canít it be both/and?

  11. #71
    Join Date
    Jun 2009
    Location
    Durham
    Quote Originally Posted by UrinalCake View Post
    Tre's injury in the first Syracuse game felt like a turning point, but it might have just been coincidental that the schedule got more real after that.
    How much more real could the schedule have gotten than Kentucky, Auburn, Gonzaga, Texas Tech, and Florida State?

  12. #72
    Join Date
    Feb 2012
    Location
    North Carolina
    President of the Marshall Plumlee fan club!

  13. #73
    Quote Originally Posted by Furniture View Post
    That was just AWESOME!!!! Especially Jon and his daughter.

    p.s. the basketball stuff was cool too.

  14. #74
    Join Date
    Mar 2008
    Location
    New Orleans, Louisiana
    Quote Originally Posted by Furniture View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by gep View Post
    That was just AWESOME!!!! Especially Jon and his daughter.

    p.s. the basketball stuff was cool too.
    Agreed. Thanks for continuing to fight the good fight against the onslaught of amateur coroners who have ruined this thread.

    I didn't even know BabyScheyerFace was a thing until now.

  15. #75
    Quote Originally Posted by cato View Post
    If any? Tre Jones, the point of the spear on D, had hip and hernia surgeries after the season. I think it is safe to say that his injuries impacted Dukeís D.
    I hope you have some stats to back that up, or maybe even a receipt...otherwise, we can't know that....(/s)
    Don't waste your time on House of Cards S6!
    -We found out Frank was critical to making anyone else in the show interesting...not a surprise...

  16. #76
    Quote Originally Posted by brevity View Post
    Agreed. Thanks for continuing to fight the good fight against the onslaught of amateur coroners who have ruined this thread.
    Amateur?!!! Iíll have you know I watched Quincy every week when it aired in the 70ís.

  17. #77
    Quote Originally Posted by jimsumner View Post
    Every time a Duke season ends in the NCAAT I chide myself for my emotional over-investment.

    Never again, say I.

    For about three days. Then I start thinking about next season's rotations.

    After 50-some years I'm pretty sure it's genetically encoded.

    Enjoy every sandwich, as Warren Zevon said. But also expect a Final Four.
    Jim: you've been doing this even longer than I, but in 50 years, I know there have been seasons where even you did not expect a Final Four. These young folk here may have never had that experience, but my stint at Duke, '77-'84, included what is still my favorite season of all, the '82-'83 team. Coming off the previous 10-17 record, there were no FF expectations. And, the 11-17 record in K's third year met those low expectations. But the silver lining was that I could revel in every win, but also walk away from a loss without the subsequent days of depression and angst that I now suffer with our outsized expectations.

    Even when we were getting destroyed, like by UVa at the ACCT, you could still enjoy watching Danny Meagher dunk, or Mike Tissaw mow down an opposing player. Or Johnny Dawkins do everything. Kind of a life lesson: treasure the victories and don't take the losses too seriously. So, rest easy all, even if we hit a post-K stretch where we don't contend every year for a Natty, there is still much joy to be found in watching Duke basketball

  18. #78
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Raleigh, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by clinresga View Post
    Jim: you've been doing this even longer than I, but in 50 years, I know there have been seasons where even you did not expect a Final Four. These young folk here may have never had that experience, but my stint at Duke, '77-'84, included what is still my favorite season of all, the '82-'83 team. Coming off the previous 10-17 record, there were no FF expectations. And, the 11-17 record in K's third year met those low expectations. But the silver lining was that I could revel in every win, but also walk away from a loss without the subsequent days of depression and angst that I now suffer with our outsized expectations.

    Even when we were getting destroyed, like by UVa at the ACCT, you could still enjoy watching Danny Meagher dunk, or Mike Tissaw mow down an opposing player. Or Johnny Dawkins do everything. Kind of a life lesson: treasure the victories and don't take the losses too seriously. So, rest easy all, even if we hit a post-K stretch where we don't contend every year for a Natty, there is still much joy to be found in watching Duke basketball
    The last time the world under-estimated a Mike-Krzyzewski coached team was 1987. That said, I didn't go into every season with Great Expectations. 2007 for example. No plausible case could be made going into the season for that team making a deep March run. 1996, K-'s comeback year, also fits that narrative. But those are the only two seasons since 1987 that I thought Duke might be overmatched going into the season.

  19. #79
    Join Date
    Jun 2009
    Location
    Durham
    Quote Originally Posted by brevity View Post
    Agreed. Thanks for continuing to fight the good fight against the onslaught of amateur coroners who have ruined this thread.

    I didn't even know BabyScheyerFace was a thing until now.
    Nice to know that a much wiser man than the rest of us is here to judge his fellow posters and also to determine what should or shouldnít be written in a particular thread.

  20. #80
    Join Date
    Mar 2008
    Location
    New Orleans, Louisiana
    Quote Originally Posted by brevity View Post
    Agreed. Thanks for continuing to fight the good fight against the onslaught of amateur coroners who have ruined this thread.

    I didn't even know BabyScheyerFace was a thing until now.
    Quote Originally Posted by Steven43 View Post
    Nice to know that a much wiser man than the rest of us is here to judge his fellow posters and also to determine what should or shouldnít be written in a particular thread.
    Thanks! It's like the tattoo says: "Only Judges Can Judge Me".

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