2022 Men's Basketball Recruiting

[RetireVergaJersey]

It seems our "dream" class would be:

Dariq Whitehead
Jaden Schutt
Mark Mitchell
Kyle Filipowski
Dereck Lively

Am I missing any other major prospects? JJ Starling?

I think Duke may only return 2 players so I hope to have 6 man class and 2 transfers.

[Kedsy]

High School Steph Curry says hello.

Employing the implicit logic here, I guess we should recruit exclusively outside the top 100 because, hey, Steph Curry! Or maybe we can include guys ranked in the 90s, because they'd be Steph, but better coming out of high school!

[DavidBenAkiva]

It seems our "dream" class would be:

Dariq Whitehead
Jaden Schutt
Mark Mitchell
Kyle Filipowski
Dereck Lively

Am I missing any other major prospects? JJ Starling?

The five you mentioned are the primary targets right now. Two, Filipowski and Whitehead, have committed. Another two, Schutt (8/27) and Mitchell (10/15) are scheduled to visit Duke and are "trending" towards Duke. That is, some people seem to think both will commit.

The one unknown here is Lively. Some signs suggest he is considering Duke. For example, Kentucky has recently offered the #2 center in the Class of 2022 Adem Bona, and received a number of crystal ball picks in his favor. Perhaps Coach Cal and staff think Lively isn't a sure bet and would rather take the sure thing. Meanwhile, Duke hasn't reached out to another center prospect. Perhaps they feel good about their chances. Who knows?

JJ Starling and Anthony Black have both received offers from Duke. Neither has scheduled a visit.

My read on the situation is that HCIW Scheyer and staff are targeting the five you mentioned and will be very selective to fill any holes on the roster if and when necessary. That might come over the winter if they are unsuccessful or as late as April if things go well.

[DavidBenAkiva]

Employing the implicit logic here, I guess we should recruit exclusively outside the top 100 because, hey, Steph Curry! Or maybe we can include guys ranked in the 90s, because they'd be Steph, but better coming out of high school!

We should be excited to see how Jaylen Blakes turns out in that case.

[dukelifer]

Employing the implicit logic here, I guess we should recruit exclusively outside the top 100 because, hey, Steph Curry! Or maybe we can include guys ranked in the 90s, because they'd be Steph, but better coming out of high school!

Lots of excellent college players come from that cohort. It is not what Duke does so I have no illusions that anything will change. But sometimes - just sometimes- you can find a really good player and if you have foresight - you might find a bunch. Duke took a chance on Seth because of Steph and that turned out okay. I suspect that with the transfer rules- we may see some of those folks in the 80’s and 90’s end up at top programs.

[dukelifer]

Employing the implicit logic here, I guess we should recruit exclusively outside the top 100 because, hey, Steph Curry! Or maybe we can include guys ranked in the 90s, because they'd be Steph, but better coming out of high school!

My other point is that several major programs must have taken a gander at Steph- but none pulled the trigger. They all must have seen a kid with a sweet stroke- but he was pretty slight and they all passed assuming a good shooter would not be enough. Scheyer has seen Schutt- he has seen him shoot and must see something in him. I trust that and not the rankings at this point

https://next.voxcreative.com/sponsored/10634390/steph-curry-overlooked-by-scouts-but-now-a-three-point-warrior

[jimsumner]

Lots of excellent college players come from that cohort. It is not what Duke does so I have no illusions that anything will change. But sometimes - just sometimes- you can find a really good player and if you have foresight - you might find a bunch. Duke took a chance on Seth because of Steph and that turned out okay. I suspect that with the transfer rules- we may see some of those folks in the 80’s and 90’s end up at top programs.

Duke only took a chance on Seth after he had played a season at Liberty and averaged 20 ppg. Even after Stephen's stunning success at Davidson, Seth didn't get much attention coming out of high school.

While we're on the subject of college players significantly overperforming their prep ranking, consensus 2021 NPOY Luke Garza was the consensus no. 93 player in the prep class of 2017, 24 spots behind Alex O'Connell, 34 spots behind Jordan Tucker, 88 spots behind Trevon Duval.

We can do this with any recruiting class of course, both highly-ranked players who don't pan out and lower-ranked players who greatly over-perform expectations. In the aggregate, recruiting players ranked in the 20s will turn out better than recruiting players in the 120s but it's kind of fun to look at the exceptions. And play what if.

[dukelifer]

Duke only took a chance on Seth after he had played a season at Liberty and averaged 20 ppg. Even after Stephen's stunning success at Davidson, Seth didn't get much attention coming out of high school.

While we're on the subject of college players significantly overperforming their prep ranking, consensus 2021 NPOY Luke Garza was the consensus no. 93 player in the prep class of 2017, 24 spots behind Alex O'Connell, 34 spots behind Jordan Tucker, 88 spots behind Trevon Duval.

We can do this with any recruiting class of course, both highly-ranked players who don't pan out and lower-ranked players who greatly over-perform expectations. In the aggregate, recruiting players ranked in the 20s will turn out better than recruiting players in the 120s but it's kind of fun to look at the exceptions. And play what if.

Yes- Seth showed that he was quickly trending to Steph and Duke took a rare transfer. There are always kids that out perform and under perform but the question is whether you can better predict those that are diamonds in the rough. I believe that shooting mechanics could be a good predictor. This kid shoots 51% beyond the arc and is 6’ 5”. That is intriguing.

[JasonEvans]

Jason- you’ve recently dropped two attention grabbing descriptions like “best shooter in the class” (and “potential #1 prospect” re: Lively) and I’m struggling to see where you’re getting this info.

Eric Bossi, national recruiting analyst for 247, says this about Schutt:

Should four-star shooting guard Jaden Schutt of the Illinois Wolves be in the conversation for top shooter in the class of 2022? I don’t see how he can’t be. I talked to several college coaches who felt the same.

Here's Brandon Jenkins, another recruiting analyst with 247:

Jaden Schutt started off the month of July on point. After picking up an offer from Duke, he never let up. The chip on his shoulder enlargened and it seemed as if he never could miss during the final two sessions at Under Armour. Not only did he lead his Illinois Wolves squad to a UAA Finals chip, but he also proved himself to be one of the best shooters in the high school game.

And here is Ball Is Life, an online high school recruiting/hype machine:

BEST SHOOTER?! 6'5 sophomore @schutt_jaden recently set Illinois state record for most three-pointers in a game with 17! Shooting 51% from 3 on the season!

Most folks expect Schutt's ranking to skyrocket once the analysts get back from the summer events and really look at who is ranked where. He's been super impressive the past couple months on the summer AAU circuit. Everyone who talks about him says he could be the best shooter in the class. My parroting of that is not exactly me coming up with a wholly unsupported notion. Schutt has offers from Duke, Michigan St, Illinois, Ohio St, Florida, Louisville, and several other major recruiting powers. Not exactly the profile of a kid who is barely a top 150 recruit.

AS for Dereck Lively, the moves by Duran and Bates to the 2021 class has thrown the top of the 2022 rankings into a bit of flux. Here is a story from 247 saying he is now the #1 player in the class: https://247sports.com/college/kentuc...ly--168901136/

With both Duren and Emoni Bates reclassifying to 2021, Bellefonte (Pa.) Westtown School 5-star center Dereck Lively has taken over the top spot in the 2022 class, according to 247Sports.

Again, the fallout from the summer season has not hit many of the rankings yet. There are several contenders to be the new #1 player in the class. Lively has been quite impressive this summer and is certainly among them. Like the Schutt thing, I don't think my comment was all that far "out there" in recruiting circles.

[curtis325]

Eric Bossi, national recruiting analyst for 247, says this about Schutt:


Here's Brandon Jenkins, another recruiting analyst with 247:


And here is Ball Is Life, an online high school recruiting/hype machine:


Most folks expect Schutt's ranking to skyrocket once the analysts get back from the summer events and really look at who is ranked where. He's been super impressive the past couple months on the summer AAU circuit. Everyone who talks about him says he could be the best shooter in the class. My parroting of that is not exactly me coming up with a wholly unsupported notion. Schutt has offers from Duke, Michigan St, Illinois, Ohio St, Florida, Louisville, and several other major recruiting powers. Not exactly the profile of a kid who is barely a top 150 recruit.

AS for Dereck Lively, the moves by Duran and Bates to the 2021 class has thrown the top of the 2022 rankings into a bit of flux. Here is a story from 247 saying he is now the #1 player in the class: https://247sports.com/college/kentuc...ly--168901136/



Again, the fallout from the summer season has not hit many of the rankings yet. There are several contenders to be the new #1 player in the class. Lively has been quite impressive this summer and is certainly among them. Like the Schutt thing, I don't think my comment was all that far "out there" in recruiting circles.

Bellefonte is 10 miles from State College. Why is Lively not going to Penn State?

[SilkyJ]

Eric Bossi, national recruiting analyst for 247, says this about Schutt:

Here's Brandon Jenkins, another recruiting analyst with 247:

And here is Ball Is Life, an online high school recruiting/hype machine:

Most folks expect Schutt's ranking to skyrocket once the analysts get back from the summer events and really look at who is ranked where. He's been super impressive the past couple months on the summer AAU circuit. Everyone who talks about him says he could be the best shooter in the class. My parroting of that is not exactly me coming up with a wholly unsupported notion. Schutt has offers from Duke, Michigan St, Illinois, Ohio St, Florida, Louisville, and several other major recruiting powers. Not exactly the profile of a kid who is barely a top 150 recruit.

AS for Dereck Lively, the moves by Duran and Bates to the 2021 class has thrown the top of the 2022 rankings into a bit of flux. Here is a story from 247 saying he is now the #1 player in the class: https://247sports.com/college/kentuc...ly--168901136/


Again, the fallout from the summer season has not hit many of the rankings yet. There are several contenders to be the new #1 player in the class. Lively has been quite impressive this summer and is certainly among them. Like the Schutt thing, I don't think my comment was all that far "out there" in recruiting circles.

Very helpful—i also saw B. Jenkins commentary on 247, but not much of what else you quoted/posted so thanks for including.

I figured you’d point out that Schutt is set to rise after his performance this summer, which is why I included the link to 247 sports most recent ranking which is ~2 weeks old (from what I can tell) and has him around ~100…i’m guessing the other rankings are dated, but theirs seems up to date, which puzzles me given his rising stock…

[roywhite]

Bellefonte is 10 miles from State College. Why is Lively not going to Penn State?

Penn State has been mentioned some in his recruitment but mostly the leaders seem to be Duke, Kentucky, UNC, Michigan, etc. -- the traditional top basketball schools. Lively is attending Westtown School (where Cam Reddish played) which is in the Philadelphia area so he appears open to being away from home.

[JasonEvans]

Very helpful—i also saw B. Jenkins commentary on 247, but not much of what else you quoted/posted so thanks for including.

I figured you’d point out that Schutt is set to rise after his performance this summer, which is why I included the link to 247 sports most recent ranking which is ~2 weeks old (from what I can tell) and has him around ~100…i’m guessing the other rankings are dated, but theirs seems up to date, which puzzles me given his rising stock…

I'm not saying the comparison is ideal, but Schutt may be somewhat similar to UNC's Kerwin Walton. Walton was ranked #133 by 247 in last year's class, but was a pretty solid player for them the back half of the season as a 3-point specialist (he owned Duke, shooting 10-13 from 3 against us... ouch!). Walton's game is pretty limited in some other ways, which is why he is not seen as someone with much pro potential and why his ranking was never all that high, but he can shoot lights-out from long-range and an elite program sees some real value in that.

[budwom]

Have to keep in mind that all rankings have been thwarted by last summer's lack of events. Information was very incomplete heading into this summer.

[scottdude8]

I think Duke may only return 2 players so I hope to have 6 man class and 2 transfers.

I think this might be a worst-case scenario rather than a likely scenario (I think this might be what you meant too, but worth clarifying).

In all likelihood Jaylen Blakes will be back. That's 1.

Joey Baker can still use his "covid year" to return for a 5th year if he so chooses.

Jeremy Roach, Wendell Moore, and Trevor Keels all (currently) seem to be on the outside looking in on most draft projections. We know from this year that that isn't the demarcation it once was, but NIL could sway things like that in our favor. And if any of those three play well enough to get into for-sure drafted territory, that can only mean good things for the team's success.

And while we all anticipate Mark leaving, that also isn't a "done deal". Think about Illinois Kofi Cockburn, who tested the waters after his freshman year and was assumed to be 100% gone after his sophomore year, but is still in an Illinois uniform. The NBA's devaluing of traditional centers makes that a major wild card. If Mark doesn't develop a 3 point shot and/or become a solid pick-and-roll defender, NBA scouts may see his ceiling as a very good college, but no pro, big. I'm with the consensus that it's more likely than not that he's gone after his sophomore campaign, but we shouldn't resign ourselves to that necessarily. And again, NIL could play a role here (would he come back to be a high profile Duke star rather than a second round pick/G-leaguer?).

I'd personally put the over-under of returning players at 3. and if I HAD to bet I'd pick the over (although I think 3 may be right on the dot). If we return 3+ players with the "dream class" some have mentioned, oh boy Jon could have a fun first year as a head coach.

[UrinalCake]

Schutt's reputation reminds me of Joe Girard, who we showed some interest in but eventually backed off from. He was known as a great shooter, perhaps in the conversation for best shooter in his class, but not great at everything else and thus ranked outside the top 100. He's turned into a pretty solid player for Syracuse, and their system is perfect for hiding him on defense.

It does sound like Schutt is a better player overall and his ranking will catch up to him. Covid prevented this whole class from being properly seen and evaluated so there will be plenty of guys who overperform their rankings as well as guy who were ranked really high based on their sophomore years but then go the other direction.

[CDu]

I'd personally put the over-under of returning players at 3. and if I HAD to bet I'd pick the over (although I think 3 may be right on the dot). If we return 3+ players with the "dream class" some have mentioned, oh boy Jon could have a fun first year as a head coach.

I think it depends. If the three are Blakes, Roach, and Baker? That's probably a little light on returning quality and experience, especially so if Roach's return is because he struggled this year (which I hope isn't the case, and I lean towards him having a good year this year).

That said, I wouldn't rule out Scheyer diving into the transfer market as needed to fill out the roster if we're light on returning talent.

[MChambers]

Bellefonte is 10 miles from State College. Why is Lively not going to Penn State?

Because he's a basketball player?

[scottdude8]

I think it depends. If the three are Blakes, Roach, and Baker? That's probably a little light on returning quality and experience, especially so if Roach's return is because he struggled this year (which I hope isn't the case, and I lean towards him having a good year this year).

That said, I wouldn't rule out Scheyer diving into the transfer market as needed to fill out the roster if we're light on returning talent.

Fair point. I think having a fifth year Joey Baker would be a great thing, regardless of whether he develops into a starter-caliber player or he's still a bench presence... experience is a valuable commodity in the modern game. I also think we've learned that PG is perhaps the most important position to have experience at in the college game, and the one where players can make the most notable leaps over time (would we have expected Quinn Cook to lead a title team after his freshman/sophomore year?), so having two returning PGs (including a potential two year starter) would also be a luxury. Yes, in terms of pure talent that trio might be lacking, and perhaps it would need one of Keels/Moore/Williams to live up to the hyperbole I mistakenly used in my first post. But offer me those three returning plus a top 5 recruiting class and a transfer or two, and I'll take it and run before you change your mind.

[heyman25]

Get more transfers and international players for next season. Could be some Doncic types in the Balkans. Michigan got the Wagner brothers from Germany. Duke has never had a great player from overseas. Gonzaga is best in international recruiting. Jack White, Marty Pocius nice guys but were role players.